quiz question #7

[KDawgCometh 2]

Ok so you are in the second round of the National Heads Up Poker Championship and are facing Antonio Esfandiari. You've already lost a critical pot and are now sittinng with 7200 in chips to his 72,800. The blinds are 600-1200 and you have the big blind leaving you 6000 remaining. Antonio moves all in and you look down at 7 8 Some background: Antonio has already made it clear verbally that he doesn't want to double you up. So with that information you assume that if you were to fold this hand, there was a reasonable chance he'd fold his big blind on the next hand.

damn Daniel you out did yourself on this one. I'm leaning towards pushing in here as against two random cards you aren't more then a 60/40 dog. Pushing in on the midget stack here with this hand will sens a message to Antonio. The problem here is that he could be pushing with almost any hand. If you fold here and push the next hand he will almost certainly have to call you based on the calling odds he'd be getting on a random hand. With his verbal declaration he could be pushing witrh a very weak hand here, in fact you could very well be the favorite(knowing what Antonio would play). This would almost look like a steam push here too, and if you push on the next hand it too might look like a steam push. I think I'd call in, even though I don't like calling off my chips with this hand it might be the right move, but go in the tank first for a while

[packattack 0]

This seems like clear cut fold to me, so I'm probably wrong. Even as aggressive as Antonio is, it's hard to assume that you're not at least a 57-43 underdog here, which the odds are slightly against you in calling here. I disagree with people that he wouldn't make this play with a big hand like a high pair or AJ. Why wouldn't he? If he makes a standard raise to around 3200 or so, if you're going to play this hand, you're committing your whole stack, because you'll only be left with 2800 if you call. I would hope to pick up a good hand in the next round or two.

[ddudley 0]

I call. But, I love the suited connectors. You probably have a 40/60 chance against whatever he is holding (as long as it's not 8-8 to A-A). You are already down so much in chips you need to double up soon.That whole verbal info thing was probably just so he could move in on you and get you to fold anyway. Always do the opposite of he what he wants you to do. He obviously would prefer you to fold this hand.

[gregdon8 0]

I vote to call in this scenario with 8 high... sounds funny. Middle suited connectors are the best drawing hands even against AA. With 7200, doubling up serves some value, getting you to around 14,000 and gives you some breathing room. He probably would not push in with a PP or even A8-K. This is a hand in which you ar probably not dominated and have two live cards. Lets be honest you are going to have to get lucky to win this match. Why not try it when it means something to double up.Lets say you fold this, now giving you 6,000. What happens if you dont pick up your ace in the next three hands thus giving away another 1800, you now have 4200 when you finally get your ace and push get called and double up... you are basically back to where you were when this hand started.My point is you are going to have to gamble and get lucky eventually. I say you might as well do it when you have two live cards, straight possibilities, and flush possibilities.

[packattack 0]

I vote to call in this scenario with 8 high... sounds funny. Middle suited connectors are the best drawing hands even against AA. With 7200, doubling up serves some value, getting you to around 14,000 and gives you some breathing room. He probably would not push in with a PP or even A8-K. This is a hand in which you ar probably not dominated and have two live cards. Lets be honest you are going to have to get lucky to win this match. Why not try it when it means something to double up.Lets say you fold this, now giving you 6,000. What happens if you dont pick up your ace in the next three hands thus giving away another 1800, you now have 4200 when you finally get your ace and push get called and double up... you are basically back to where you were when this hand started.My point is you are going to have to gamble and get lucky eventually. I say you might as well do it when you have two live cards, straight possibilities, and flush possibilities.

True, suited connectors are good drawing hands, but do you want your whole tournament at stake when you're possibly a 3-1 dog? Seriously though, why wouldn't he push in with any hand that is a legitimate raising hand? He knows that by just raising, you're committing your whole stack, so you pretty much are all-in. Like Daniel said, it is likely that Antonio will fold his BB in the next hand, so you'll be back to 7200. Yes, you're definitely going to need some luck to come back and win, but I'd prefer getting my money in with a hand that at least might be the best hand.

[Erudis 0]

Daniel, I don't know what you did, but I call without hesitation. The math of the situation is SECONDARY in this case (in my opinion). At this point no matter how good you play you are GOING to have to catch breaks to get back into this and become a force in the match. The chip count in these situations TRUMPS the math.What is the back-up plan? One way or another you HAVE to get lucky and that either means by catching several good hands in a row, or getting your chips in (behind or ahead) and sucking out. Personally, I'd rather get my chips in when i have the most of them (and it's costing you 1800 per round!) and it seems more likely I'm gonna suck out as a 2 to 3 dog or 1 to 4 dog than getting a slew of good hands in a row WHICH ANTONIO IS WILLING TO CALL (given the info he's stated to you).Finally, if you lose here you're done but you probably would have lost anyway given the chip distribution. On the other hand, if you win you are back up to 14,400 to his 65,600 (about 4.5 to 1) and this has brought you back into the match and given you genuine "short-stack power" (I say the 7200 does not give you the advantage of "short-stack power" because you are TOO short-stacked and otherwise impotent). With this added power you are now capable of stealing some blinds, defending your own, and perhaps stealing some small pots - you have earned the capability of getting yourself back into this match without having to hit a one-shot double-up again.I call everytime and without hesitation.

[breiten19 0]

I call...what does it matter? The match is basically over, you need to get lucky a few times. Might as well start now. There are far worse hands to see (and if you are waiting for something better, if the next round or 2 are crap all you can do is double up to where you are at now.) I could talk about random hands, but the fact is, I think if you fold this hand, you are basically at the point where you are pushing in with anything anyway.It is time to gamble (you understood that when you played a huge pot with 2 overcards and a flush draw)CALL

[Leedspokerguru 0]

Fold. You still got a couple of hands to pick a hand better than 8 high.

[Skinny Mike 0]

Even though it is tough, I think you have to callYou are going to have to make a stand sometime, and with Antonio’s comment I think he is just trying to get in our head. I think is an example of strong is weak, weak is strong. If he had strong hand (pp or high cards), I think he would just call letting us to go all in, then call. Even if we wait a couple of hands are we really are is doubling up to where we are now.To get back in the game we are going to have to get lucky, so might as well start with middle suited connectors.

[SportsW234 0]

Even if your up against AK offsuit your getting 43%. I would call.

[ddoggphx 0]

I voted to fold, but upon reflection, I'm going to call here. This maybe the best hand I'm seeing, with pairs, straights and flush opportunities for me. I need to double up fast, and I'd rather do it here than get blinded out and end up pushing in another two hands, thus doubling up and ending up right back in the same situation. So instead of maybe getting an opportunity to double up in a few hands, and get to 8K, I've got a shot to get to 14,500 right now. Not to mention the table image that I'm not going to back down to chip bullying, and will call you back, hopefully allowing me to be the one forcing the decisions on the next go around (if I make it) and not getting forced in a corner again.So, my gut was to fold, but that was the wrong move. Definitely call this bet. In fact, the longer I think about it, the easier I think it is to make this call.

[murphy77 0]

Call. Even if you fold to wait for better hands, your still folding away ~18% of your stack. I;d call and hope for the best, which is what is needed if your outchipped 10-1.

[Awful 0]

Alright, lets weigh the factors:1. Future Fold equity: He doesn't want to double you up. You can push in every SB and pray he doesn't wake up to a beast, since he fears relinquishing control of the match. This advocates a fold, since you can chop back if you take his statements at face value. Next round, he will have to call 4800 to win 7200 however, and be getting 1.5-1 on such a call. You're inching towards the zone where pot odds allow him to call with any 2 vs. your nearly-random hand. You've lost fold equity if you do not push next hand. This may swing this category to gambling; it depends on Antonio's odds decisions and also how often he'll attack you from his SB.2. Match control: You need over 10xBB to play past the preflop betting round. Assuming as part of this that I'm Danny, I want to be playing deeper stack poker ASAP as I figure my edge expands on each round of betting. This adds value to moving sooner rather than later. A double up now gives you more options later and more edges to exploit. Waiting will still leave you in danger even on a double-up and still playing purely preflop move-in poker. There's a reason Antonio doesn't want to double you up, because you have an edge with every extra betting round before someone's all-in. This favors gambling. Also favoring gambling (should you win) is the message sent by calling an all-in given his aversion to doubling you up. He will be selective in his bullying and may fold his SB to you on occasions due to the daring call you may make.3. Your current hand: You have 78s. You will be behind most hands, but you are compensated slightly by suitedness and connectivity. This amounts to extra outs for this hand. 7's and 8's are likely to be live, as well. Just because you don't play this postflop doesn't negate the fact that your win % is noticably bumped by those extra drawing possibilites. This affects the next decision. 4. Pot odds: There's 8400 to win if you call with your case 6000 chips. You are getting 1.4 to 1 odds. You can take those odds vs. a random hand at +chip EV, but if he only plays A8+, K9+, QT+, JT+ and any pair 77+, you are just getting 1.4 to 1, about break even on chip EV. Other factors affect Cash (tournament) EV. Furthermore, you MUST push next hand, making it a matchup of 2 truly random hands, or a genuine coinflip. There you will be laying 1.5-1 between 2 random and unknown hands, which is -Chip EV as it's even money.5. Future Edges preflop: As your stack dwindles, you will get larger preflop chip EVs on your all-ins but less +Tournament EV due to remaining in the danger zone. With no read on his hands because you will be pushing first or calling all-in vs. a sizable range of hands, when you are in an all-in situation you cannot expect to be a sizable favorite. You will be pushing random hands and the calling range I put him on is a 63% fave over a random hand. This also favors gambling.Bonus decision tool (EV's are overall total expected chip count, not the actual EV of a wager considering the presence of blinds or amount your action is risking; for simplicity):Folding, pushing next hand blind, antonio calls with anything blind:50% chance of ending with 10 BB, 50% chance of ending with zeroEV: 5xBB, 50% survival, 50% Under 10xBBFold, push next hand blind, Antonio calls with above range:8% chance of ending with 10 BB15% chance of ending with 0 BB77% chance of ending with 6.5 BBEV: 5.85 BB, 85% survival, 92% Under 10xBBCall Here, assuming he pushed with his calling range: 37% chance of ending with 12xBB63% chance of ending with zeroEV: 4.44 BB, 37% survival, 63% under 10xBBCall here, assuming he pushed a random hand:48% chance of ending with 12xBB52% chance of ending with zeroEV: 5.76 BB, 48% survival, 52% under 10xBBI'm playing to get to deep stacks. Calling now gives me a 37% chance to cross the 10xBB mark. If Antonio plays as he states, I escape preflop all-in poker only 8% of the time. Due to the source and nature of my edge in the overall match, it is this "escape the move-in" game factor I want to maximize due to the correlation of type of play to my tournament EV as opposed to just the stacks. I'm not fully 2x more likely to win with 3xBB as opposed to 6xBB, but I'm more than 2x as likely to win with 18xBB as opposed to 9xBB. It's this discontinuity in tournament equity and superior postflop play that leads me to gamble. I want to double up when one is offered, not entirely too unlikely, and can still save my tournament and open up my other edges.Then again, this is Sklansky-type evaluation of tourney situations, and Danny had said that's a less correct mathematical model for evaluating this (as opposed to the tools Danny and Gus utilize for examining tourney decisions). But based on it I'm calling, and I eagerly await his quiz answers and reasoning.

[gehrig 0]

Antonio should be pushing with a lot of hands here. If his range is any ace, any pair, any two broadway and most suited connectors, then 87s is about 40% to win. You're getting 1.4-1, so it's pretty neutral EV in a vacuum. Calling here leaves you with about 5800 on average.If Antonio think you'll fold hands like 87s (which isn't all that bad against what could be his pushing range - K7o does worse), then he should be pushing with literally any two. He'll just simply steal the blinds too often. If you know he knows you'll fold hands like 87s (and it's not exactly hard to figure out if your opponent thinks pushing with any two is +EV), then calling is a no-brainer with the pot odds.So depending on his range, it either doesn't really matter if you call or not, or calling is pretty safely +EV. For calling to really be -EV, you'd have to be against an opponent with a very tight pushing range, and I'd have a hard time believing a world class player like Antonio is that awful at tiny-stack poker.Your last sentence kind of implies that you think folding is right, because you will be in a favorable position next hand against him, because he'll fold too much. He shouldn't really be folding more than a few hands in that situation - folding hands as good as 86o would be a pretty big leak.

[KCrimson 0]

CallAssuming AE is the kind of guy that would, in fact, fold his BB for 4800 more chips (as is proposed), he is the kind of guy who would wait for a hand he feels is ahead to call your all-in with. In which case, unless you hit a "perfect" hand where AE thinks he has the best of it, and you actually do, or suck hime out, your waiting would only get you some blinds until the hammer drops.This is similar to, and even more dire than the Paul Phillips, Dewey Tomko HU at some WPT final table. Dewey was ready willing and able to go in with any 2 because of the gross chip disparity. Paul folded, and folded, and Tewey kept snatching the blinds, woohoo. But when Paul caught a hand (77), it was over anyway. Just as Dewey did, you (me?we?) are just plain gonna have to suck him out. And 78s is a damn good suckout hand. Stealing blinds is meaningless, and AE will have his raising rights through a good 5 such blind steals, in the rare event we should be able to. So stealing his blinds, or waiting, does nothing for us. We have to suck out. In short: AE either:Keeps the pressure on, as he should, calling with rags, and raising with less. ORWaits for his spot to be favored after letting you steal some meaningless blinds. The best you can hope for with a fold, and its best-case scenario is the second example. (not only do you steal the upcomming blind, but a few thereafter). You get to hope he thinks he is ahead when he isn't. Tops.Call now, and get your money in while you know he is pushing with a wide range of hands. You need to double up, you realistically will not be able to come back without a suckout, so go with a great suckout hand.Edited to replace "suck "home" out with suck "him" out.

[KramitDaToad 0]

I would almost like a call here, but voted to fold for 1 reason: you are not the aggressor and thus have no fold equity. I do, however, like being all-in with a hand that very likely is NOT dominated and has a lot of possibilities for a good flop.

I'm thinking along the same lines, especially when the extra information is taken into account.It would seem that Antonio is only going to set you all in preflop with average or better hands.Fold here - which might suggest you're looking for reasonable cards to double up with (not too believable given the stacks but hey...)Go all-in next hand regardless and if Antonio folds we will be back at the exact same situation with different cards. The upside of this is Antonio might not have enough to push with, in his mind, or we get better cards. If not repeat the process...

[theshakes 0]

Of course no one likes calling an all-in with 8 high, but considering that i'm most likely a 3/2 dog at worst, i like my chances. if antonio has me crushed with an overpair, oh well. however, if i fold my blind, i'm left with 6000 in chips. this only makes antonio more likely to call my 4800 raise on the next hand regardless of what he might have verbally said about doubling me up. i think it's a pretty easy decision. even against a seemingly "dominating" hand like AKs or 77, i'm only a 3/2 dog, and against a weak ace or underpair it's about a coin flip... if you think your odds are gonna be that good on your next random hand, you're crazy.

[flyingmoose 0]

I call here. If you manage to double through, you've also sent a nice message to Antonio. If he knows you'll call with 8-high, he may decide to stop moving into your big blind, especially if you catch him with a marginal hand when you call.

[Red_foot_soldier 0]

again I'm taking a stab at this blind and haven't looked at anyone elses posts.My feelings of heads up play are that suited conectors esp. small ones are all but useless unless you can see a flop with them. You know your against at least one overcard so your behind. Give him the benifit of the doubt he has a face card and charge when you start hitting them. Always try and be in conrol of a heads up match.Antonio would clearly say he doesn't want to double you up but that doesn't mean he wont though so wait for the high cards before splashing the chips in the middle.

[Red_foot_soldier 0]

so fold

[gregdon8 0]

You are outchipped 10 to 1. You have to get lucky to win this thing, or even stay alive. You have three and a half rounds left, which is seven hands. How long are you willing to wait? Like mentioned earlier, if you wait three hands then double up you are only right back where you started. You need to get over 10 x BB and this hand will give you the CHANCE to do that with two live cards, straight, and flush draws. You need to gamble and this is the time to do it. You want to double up so that you are back in the match, not to stay alive. No one likes calling with eight high but this is a time when I feel that you should.

[gregdon8 0]

Daniel, I don't know what you did, but I call without hesitation. The math of the situation is SECONDARY in this case (in my opinion). At this point no matter how good you play you are GOING to have to catch breaks to get back into this and become a force in the match. The chip count in these situations TRUMPS the math.What is the back-up plan? One way or another you HAVE to get lucky and that either means by catching several good hands in a row, or getting your chips in (behind or ahead) and sucking out. Personally, I'd rather get my chips in when i have the most of them (and it's costing you 1800 per round!) and it seems more likely I'm gonna suck out as a 2 to 3 dog or 1 to 4 dog than getting a slew of good hands in a row WHICH ANTONIO IS WILLING TO CALL (given the info he's stated to you).Finally, if you lose here you're done but you probably would have lost anyway given the chip distribution. On the other hand, if you win you are back up to 14,400 to his 65,600 (about 4.5 to 1) and this has brought you back into the match and given you genuine "short-stack power" (I say the 7200 does not give you the advantage of "short-stack power" because you are TOO short-stacked and otherwise impotent). With this added power you are now capable of stealing some blinds, defending your own, and perhaps stealing some small pots - you have earned the capability of getting yourself back into this match without having to hit a one-shot double-up again.I call everytime and without hesitation.

"Basically the same feelings I was trying to show earlier, you articulated them much better. Good post AGREED !

[nitrolife 0]

A. your hand is not THAT bad against any 2 cards preflop in this situation.B. you have to double up quickly. THIS doubleup pays more.C. there is no guarantee Antonio won't have AA next hand if you fold here.Call and get ready to shake hands or play your azz of with your somewhat less desperate stack.BTW, for future reference....try not to be outstacked 10 to 1 against a world class player next time!

[JimmyWellington 1]

Ok so you are in the second round of the National Heads Up Poker Championship and are facing Antonio Esfandiari. You've already lost a critical pot and are now sittinng with 7200 in chips to his 72,800. The blinds are 600-1200 and you have the big blind leaving you 6000 remaining. Antonio moves all in and you look down at 7 8 Some background: Antonio has already made it clear verbally that he doesn't want to double you up. So with that information you assume that if you were to fold this hand, there was a reasonable chance he'd fold his big blind on the next hand.

OK. If you fold here, you are down to 6000 chips, after the blinds go in next hand, you're down to 5400. With every hand that you don't win chips in, your hopes for coming back get smaller and smaller. It would be good to have more background info, ie. what kinds of hands he would make this play with. He has to know that any hand you play, you're going to go all in with. So I don't see him making a normal raise here (3600-4800 based on BB size) because if you're going to play, you're going to push. You're not going to call and leave you with 3000ish, all your chips are going in anyway. So on a normal sized raise, you'd either fold, or go all in. Let's see what the chances are of your hand being better than his. Against a higher pair, you're about a 5 to 1 dog. Against two higher cards, you're down 5 to 3. Against a lower pair, it's 11 to 9 dog. Against a lower hand than yours (total bluff - 52, etc) you're a 5 to 3 favorite. If he has a higher card and lower card, say J4, then you're a slight dog (don't know the odds). All of that depends on what suits he has, it'll change a bit. You have a suited connector, so you have straight and flush possibilites as well as trying to catch one or two of your cards (7 or 8). The higher pocket pairs are 99-AA (6 hands, which can be dealt 8 ways for a total of 48 hands). Since I think he'd make the same play (all in) with a wide variety of hands, (any pp, 2 high cards, or even a high card (Ax, Kx, Qx), the chances are that you're up against a lower pp, high card, or two high cards than a higher pp. I wouldn't think he would bluff here, since he doesn't want to double you up, and he knows that y0u need to make a move soon. The chances are that you're up against a lower pp or two high cards than a higher pp. You're almost definitely a dog in this hand. But you need to double up soon (next few hands) or you're done. YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO GET LUCKY AT LEAST ONCE. I would take my chances with the suited connector. I would call. But I've gotten most of these wrong so far (but learned a lot in the process.

[Mandelbrot 0]

Fold. I wouldnt put my neck out for 8 high.