Biggest Expected Downswing

[zimmer4141 0]

Now I know shorthanded is very high variance, but I want to know what the biggest downswing to be expected is. I've dropped 175BB through about 2k hands at 10/20 6-max, just wondering how bad I can let it get.My bankroll isn't in jeopardy playing this, just real frustrating, and I'm just not sure how bad I can expect them to get.

[AlphaOmega 0]

They can get a lot worse than 175, but I'd say downswings greater than 150 are fairly uncommon but can and do happen from time to time.I would check out the BBV forum on 2+2. Lot's of scary shorthanded graphs.

[jayboogie 0]

It can and will probably get worst. I've done 150 BB's in less than 1000 hands several times. Running really bad is probably when you get to the -300 BB zone.

[PoppinFresh 0]

Now I know shorthanded is very high variance, but I want to know what the biggest downswing to be expected is. I've dropped 175BB through about 2k hands at 10/20 6-max, just wondering how bad I can let it get.My bankroll isn't in jeopardy playing this, just real frustrating, and I'm just not sure how bad I can expect them to get.

There are some interesting graphs on 2+2 which show this kind of thing, unfortuanltye I am too drunk to fiind thme now, the porbability of you experiencing a 300bet downswing over 500k hands is almost 1 though.175BB is a lot though if you're jsut starting out, maybe try some 5/10 if you're getting frustrated?

[pokerplayer24 0]

Now I know shorthanded is very high variance, but I want to know what the biggest downswing to be expected is. I've dropped 175BB through about 2k hands at 10/20 6-max, just wondering how bad I can let it get.My bankroll isn't in jeopardy playing this, just real frustrating, and I'm just not sure how bad I can expect them to get.

They can happen I wouldn't be to worried unless you feel you're outclassed.I've beaten 3/6 6 max for 2b/100 over 25k hands but just recently went on a 160 bb downswing. So they can definitely happen especially when you're playing in a game where your expected winrate could quite possibly be only .5-1.5bb/100.

[CobaltBlue 662]

My experience at 20/40 6-max has been pretty "fun" and can be divided into two portions...+180 BB to start (over the first 50 hours)-200 BB this week (over the past 30 hours)So high...so low. So frustrating.

[screech 0]

Now I know shorthanded is very high variance, but I want to know what the biggest downswing to be expected is. I've dropped 175BB through about 2k hands at 10/20 6-max, just wondering how bad I can let it get.My bankroll isn't in jeopardy playing this, just real frustrating, and I'm just not sure how bad I can expect them to get.

175BB is nothing.I recently went on a stretch of about 30K hands where I broke even. At the low point I was down to about 300BB. And it can get much worse than that. 500BB can certainly happen.

Now I know shorthanded is very high variance, but I want to know what the biggest downswing to be expected is. I've dropped 175BB through about 2k hands at 10/20 6-max, just wondering how bad I can let it get.My bankroll isn't in jeopardy playing this, just real frustrating, and I'm just not sure how bad I can expect them to get.

[Wingmaster05 0]

bumpage because variance blows the cawk.

[jayboogie 0]

I think I'm cursed by the poker gods. I don't know of anyone else that can lose money as fast as I can. Seriously, I can somehow manage to lose 50BB's in 100 hands sometimes. It's really amazing how I can do that considering I've avoided playing HU unless at lower limits too.Once again I've managed to lose over 180 BB's over my last 1000 hands, I haven't picked up Aces in about a week and have won a pathetic 40% of my showdowns. Variance is just sickening sometimes, thankfully it's not a massive bankroll hit. OK variance whining post over.What's really sad is my biggest loss for a session is probably twice that of my biggest win for a session. I can't really explain it even, I just never go on huge rushes. I essentially play the same amount of hands each session except when I'm winning, then I'll play longer.

[Wingmaster05 0]

I think I'm cursed by the poker gods. I don't know of anyone else that can lose money as fast as I can. Seriously, I can somehow manage to lose 50BB's in 100 hands sometimes. It's really amazing how I can do that considering I've avoided playing HU unless at lower limits too.Once again I've managed to lose over 180 BB's over my last 1000 hands, I haven't picked up Aces in about a week and have won a pathetic 40% of my showdowns. Variance is just sickening sometimes, thankfully it's not a massive bankroll hit. OK variance whining post over.What's really sad is my biggest loss for a session is probably twice that of my biggest win for a session. I can't really explain it even, I just never go on huge rushes. I essentially play the same amount of hands each session except when I'm winning, then I'll play longer.

i feel the same. except my downswing is probably smaller, and just a steady decline instead of BAM.bolded: i've noticed once i begin to kill a table they begin to just avoid playing me. The action isn't even good with a few live ones at the table, and i usually leave.

[Axiom27 0]

I've dropped 175BB through about 2k hands at 10/20 6-max, just wondering how bad I can let it get.

the agression difference between 10/20 and 5/10 really throws a lot of people for a loop. dropping 100-200 BB is probably standard for guys new to the that level. i've had many runs where i've won or lost that much in 2-5 thousand hands. I can only hope that once i'm solidly beating that level at 2BB / 100, those swings will be less severe.

[amarillotg 0]

I think I'm cursed by the poker gods. I don't know of anyone else that can lose money as fast as I can. Seriously, I can somehow manage to lose 50BB's in 100 hands sometimes. It's really amazing how I can do that considering I've avoided playing HU unless at lower limits too.Once again I've managed to lose over 180 BB's over my last 1000 hands, I haven't picked up Aces in about a week and have won a pathetic 40% of my showdowns. Variance is just sickening sometimes, thankfully it's not a massive bankroll hit. OK variance whining post over.What's really sad is my biggest loss for a session is probably twice that of my biggest win for a session. I can't really explain it even, I just never go on huge rushes. I essentially play the same amount of hands each session except when I'm winning, then I'll play longer.

wow, if i was to reply in this thread it would be word for word what you just said. (except for the Aces)i keep on thinking, i manage big losing sessions, but hardly ever go on a big rush.glad im not the only one.

And it can get much worse than that. 500BB can certainly happen.

i just threw up in my mouth.

[CobaltBlue 662]

What's really sad is my biggest loss for a session is probably twice that of my biggest win for a session.

The reason that's the case for me is that in the past when I get stuck, I keep playing to get back to even. When I was winning, I'd get in the habit of semi-hitting and running. I'd sit down and make $400 in half an hour, and be like..."Wow...good day's work...I'm done."The only reason I'm back to having a bigger "winning session" now than my losers is that I bought 25% of Jordan.

[jayboogie 0]

The reason that's the case for me is that in the past when I get stuck, I keep playing to get back to even. When I was winning, I'd get in the habit of semi-hitting and running. I'd sit down and make $400 in half an hour, and be like..."Wow...good day's work...I'm done."The only reason I'm back to having a bigger "winning session" now than my losers is that I bought 25% of Jordan.

Yeah, of course the concept of taking small wins and big losses is a recipe for disaster. For whatever reason, I end up doing this unintentionally. I play longer when winning than losing, but never hit a big figure. I've won maybe 70 big bets for a session a time or 2. I've dropped 150 big bets in a session probably 10 times. I'm trying to look for alternative reasons other than it just being variance, but right now I'm not sure why it's the case.On top of that, I lose money incredibly quickly, but never go on insane rushes. I can manage to lose 100 bets in under an hour with ease, I don't think I've ever had a time where I've won 50 bets in an hr. Somehow I'm still a winning player, but suffering these massive losses puts a dent in my bankroll and I always have the feeling that I'm grinding it out trying to make back losses.

[pokerplayer24 0]

Yeah, of course the concept of taking small wins and big losses is a recipe for disaster. For whatever reason, I end up doing this unintentionally. I play longer when winning than losing, but never hit a big figure. I've won maybe 70 big bets for a session a time or 2. I've dropped 150 big bets in a session probably 10 times. I'm trying to look for alternative reasons other than it just being variance, but right now I'm not sure why it's the case.On top of that, I lose money incredibly quickly, but never go on insane rushes. I can manage to lose 100 bets in under an hour with ease, I don't think I've ever had a time where I've won 50 bets in an hr. Somehow I'm still a winning player, but suffering these massive losses puts a dent in my bankroll and I always have the feeling that I'm grinding it out trying to make back losses.

Sure sounds like you tilt. Whether you realize it or not.Also how long are your sessions. To only have had a few 70 bb rushes they must be relatively short.

[jayboogie 0]

Sure sounds like you tilt. Whether you realize it or not.Also how long are your sessions. To only have had a few 70 bb rushes they must be relatively short.

Probably comes off that way I'd imagine, but my game when I'm losing is not that far off from when I'm winning. I probably do make the occasional donkey play more often when losing as nobody plays perfect. My threshold for losing is incredibly high, because it's happened so many times. I'd have to lose 100 big bets, before I notice I'm losing a significant amount. I typically play 1k-2k hands a session, depending on how I'm running. Only time I quit after 500 hands or so is when I'm running extremely bad. I don't have amazing control for this and do play long sessions when losing once in a while, but it'll be against bad players and good games when I do this. For whatever reason I probably start about 70% of my sessions in the hole, something that's kind of difficult to explain.

[econ_tim 0]

my bad beat is that my hard drive failed on friday. (for those of you keeping score, i thought my harddrive was broken earlier, but i was able to get it fixed). anyway, this means I lose about 3 months of poker tracker data, which includes my big 5/10 downswing. so i'll get to start from $0. guess i'll backup my database more regularly in the future, since i hate having incomplete records of my play.

[Wingmaster05 0]

my bad beat is that my hard drive failed on friday. (for those of you keeping score, i thought my harddrive was broken earlier, but i was able to get it fixed). anyway, this means I lose about 3 months of poker tracker data, which includes my big 5/10 downswing. so i'll get to start from $0. guess i'll backup my database more regularly in the future, since i hate having incomplete records of my play.

hey, just wondering, how do you back up your database?i'm probably not near that time yet, but i should do it anyway.

[econ_tim 0]

hey, just wondering, how do you back up your database?i'm probably not near that time yet, but i should do it anyway.

look in c:\program files\Poker Tracker V2and copy the file name ptrack.mdb to an external hard drive/zip disk/dvd/etc.

[aim786 0]

look in c:\program files\Poker Tracker V2and copy the file name ptrack.mdb to an external hard drive/zip disk/dvd/etc.

Should'nt you also back up the file hhdb.mdb, as that is the file where all your HH are stored?

[Sysvr4 0]

look in c:\program files\Poker Tracker V2and copy the file name ptrack.mdb to an external hard drive/zip disk/dvd/etc.

Actually, that may not be the best way for a couple of reasons:1) It may not included the indices created by access (I'm not familiar enough with access specifically to say if this is the case or not, but it's a distinct possibility)2) The access database format may later change rendering the data file useless.I'd recommend one of two ways to get a good backup. If you are using the default access DB, then use the "export hand history" menu option (I forget which menu it's in). It will export all your HH as text files which you can then reimport in the event of a crash. Just save them to a specific folder on your drive, zip it up, and copy to an external location.The other (much better) way is to convert to postgresql and simply use the "Backup database" option under the postgres database functions menu. That option will back up the database schema and all the data therein (including HH and a lot more) and is extremely easy to restore. Btw Tim, if you have other important data on the drive, consider spending the $300 or so to send it off to get the data recovered. They can recover data even from physically damaged drives in a lot of cases.Jeff

[econ_tim 0]

Should'nt you also back up the file hhdb.mdb, as that is the file where all your HH are stored?

these aren't used to create the stats you see in pokertracker, but you will need them if you want to replay a hand

Actually, that may not be the best way for a couple of reasons:1) It may not included the indices created by access (I'm not familiar enough with access specifically to say if this is the case or not, but it's a distinct possibility)2) The access database format may later change rendering the data file useless.

These could be valid concerns. I have been able to get all of the relevant PT info by copying just the mdb file before, although I opened it with Access instead of PT (because I didn't have PT on the other computer).Luckily, almost everything from my hard drive was backed up, except for a couple months of poker hands.

[Canada 0]

Actually, that may not be the best way for a couple of reasons:1) It may not included the indices created by access (I'm not familiar enough with access specifically to say if this is the case or not, but it's a distinct possibility)2) The access database format may later change rendering the data file useless.

1) It does2) It won't

[Sysvr4 0]

Thanks for your well-reasoned and thoughtful response.

1) It does

Fair enough, I'll take your word for it.

2) It won't

I call BS here and refer you to previous versions of access which were not backwards compatible. Care to share some of that prescient knowledge with the rest of us on why this won't happen going forward?Jeff

[screech 0]

hey, just wondering, how do you back up your database?i'm probably not near that time yet, but i should do it anyway.

You can find a step by step process in the forums at www.pokertracker.com

Thanks for your well-reasoned and thoughtful response.Fair enough, I'll take your word for it.I call BS here and refer you to previous versions of access which were not backwards compatible. Care to share some of that prescient knowledge with the rest of us on why this won't happen going forward?Jeff

Jeff,**** this technical mumbo jumbo and start helping people with strat.