Betting Thought Process

[Royal_Tour 0]

Long, so dont read if you hate wasting your time My thought process in 2 streets with 15 seconds of play - how did i do?Situation: Playing in a MTTIts 2 hours in, you have a nice stack top 10 with roughly 40 players leftTo give a feel, blinds are 200/400 and you have 12kLook down in Late position and see A,8 suited in hearts. No one is making any aggressive moves and With some chips to play with, a standard raise to steal the blinds or maybe make a hand if we're called.Button calls, blinds foldflop is all rags but with 2 hearts. We have nut flush draw. Thinking - check/call - is a decent play but our villain has a similar size stack, and its HU so we arent getting proper odds to chaseBet - could look like a steal, which is technically true but we do have outs. Granted villain could come over the top and we are faced with a big decision.Check/ raise - If villain tries to steal a raise will definately scare him out, or if villain has a hand, at least we have outs.we decide to check and wait.villain checks behind. (what the? haha awesome)turn is a Q heart, giving us the nuts. no pairs on boarda check here might induce a bet, But... will a check raise, or check/call look fishy?We bet out 800. a very small bet, but one that looks like we're trying to steal this for cheap.Villain comes over the top and raises to 2400. perfect. exactly what we are hoping for.Now. heres where some can go different ways. You have the best hand, you know this.Only thing you can be scared of is pairing the board on the river which takes away our stone cold nuts.Villain has invested 1/4 of his remaining stack now. Is he trying to steal?Thinking - If he has a real hand, or maybe the K of hearts would he be willing to push if we raise here.if he has a set or two pair, will he push if we raise here?If he has nothing, and we raise, he wil fold.If we call, and he has nothing, will a bet on the river of 1/4 of the pot create a fold? can we get a call for more chips if villain has TP, or some mediocre hand?If we just call and villain does have 2 pair, or TPTK or even a set after the turn, will he still pay us off if another heart hit the river? (that doesnt pair)results of thinking - If we do raise the turn, we are only getting his chips in if he has TPTK(if he is bad enough), 2 pair, or a set. All of which we can safely beat on the river if the board doesnt pairIf we smooth call the turn, We now have a pot of rougly 7k-8k we have his invested chips, plus a chance at making more on the river by getting called witha pair TPTK, 2 pair, a set, a lower flush.we can easily get paid for any bets of 2k or less if villain has any of these hands.if he thinks what he holds is strong enough, he might even come over the top.The only way we are getting beat on this hand is if the board pairs the river, and villain holds 2 pair that fills, or a set that fills,But in reality, even if the chips went all in on the turn we still would have lost the boat.The thinking here was to maximize our chance at a final table by scrapping the bowl here to suck out as many chips from villain as possible.Sorry for the pointless length of this.

[Actuary 3]

won't villan call off more of his stack while he has one more card to see?

[Royal_Tour 0]

won't villan call off more of his stack while he has one more card to see?

that also ran through my thinking, however, what is he willing to call on a board of rags with Q high that has 3 hearts, unless he wants to see another heart.He would have to be willing to invest chips with any over pair, 2 pair, set, TPTK TP-x kicker on the river.

[JBradburn6 0]

I like just calling the turn, here's my thinking (let me know if I'm wrong...)It shows a little weakness, like maybe I have the A or K of hearts, and want to see the last card. If another heart doesn't hit, he'll put more in the pot with TPTK than he would if you raised the turn.If the board does pair, you might be in trouble, but you're most likely still good. Not sure how I'd play the river if the board pairs.

[MasterLJ 0]

Call the turn.~24% chance of board pairing on the river (10 outs), 76% we have the nuts (barring str flush, dunno if it's possible).If board pairs, check/call (including his all-in)If board doesn't pair, obviously check/raise all-in.

[Zach6668 513]

I think it sucks to be out of position here, because just calling the turn puts you in a bad situation on the river, where if you check, it could get checked through, or if you bet, he's just going to fold.- Zach

[Actuary 3]

checking river after you call his turn raise could easily get checked thru.I still say raise the turn with huge equity while villan likes his hand.Here's my question:What will he pay off on river that he won't now?How do we fare against the hands that call a re-raise (maybe an all in) on the turn vs ones that pay off on the river?

[MasterLJ 0]

checking river after you call his turn raise could easily get checked thru.I still say raise the turn with huge equity while villan likes his hand.Here's my question:What will he pay off on river that he won't now?How do we fare against the hands that call an all in on the turn vs ones that pay off on the river?

I agree, but if he has any of the hands we think he has, he'll want value on the river. If he's completely bluffing our bet isn't getting called anyway.There is one case where I'd lead out on the river and that's if it is a 4th heart.

[Stoupes22 0]

I think there are a couple of different ways to play the turn and river. One way being reraise the turn bet to about 5400, this prices them into calling with most cards unless he thinks u have the nutz.(in which case you do) but if he has a high heart he may think you have the small flush and you dont want him to chase and if he catches another heart he will think its the best hand. If he calls the turn bet, i think you need to fire out no matter what the river card is. If the board is paired make a small bet. If it is another heart i may check this to induce a bet. I also like betting if the heart isnt there, no reason to try and check raise with 3 hearts out there becuz it will most likely be checked down in somewhat fear of a flushAnother way to play it is to just call the turn bet and depending on the river card is how u play it. If another heart hits bet, he will call u with a weaker flush or if they are really horrible they will call with a set or two pair just because they want to see ur heart. If the river card pairs the board i would go ahead and bet to try and represent the flush or even a set, if he has a full house he will reraise and you can correctly fold depending on how much they raise. I dont like check/calling because it doesnt give u much info if he has a stronger hand, he could be betting with anything. a smaller flush, top two pair, set of whatever card was paired. If a blank comes on the river i would make a bet of about 1/2 or 3/4 of the pot. This might get called and it might be raised if he thinks you missed ur flush draw and are trying to represent a big hand.

[pocket3s 0]

This brings up a good point. Something that I find effective, I think it's because nobody does it. Take a long time to make a decision, then type a little something in the chat. ex...set? 2 pair? Did I let you the flush?...I know this seems like something donkey to do and in live poker, it would be, but for whatever reason online players have egos and will put there chips in. Make the call after you type, on the river...bet exactly the amount he has left. This may all sound very stupid to people, but it works for me...A LOT.

[RazorStrap 0]

he re-raised me, and I have the nuts.The biggest disaster I can let happen here is for the board to pair on the river, because then I don't know where I'm at.I'm betting the pot! If he's willing to put up that much to try for a boat fine, but he WILL pay for the draw. If I'm lucky, he has the K high flush and thinks it's good and pays me off.

[Royal_Tour 0]

he re-raised me, and I have the nuts.The biggest disaster I can let happen here is for the board to pair on the river, because then I don't know where I'm at.I'm betting the pot! If he's willing to put up that much to try for a boat fine, but he WILL pay for the draw. If I'm lucky, he has the K high flush and thinks it's good and pays me off.

Right, that is a disaster, our thinking however is that he will call no mater what with a set, or 2 pair, so we lose always if he fills.what the point is, is that if he is bluffin, or has a little something, can we extract more on the river?

[RazorStrap 0]

Right, that is a disaster, our thinking however is that he will call no mater what with a set, or 2 pair, so we lose always if he fills.what the point is, is that if he is bluffin, or has a little something, can we extract more on the river?

My point is that giving him a free chance to draw to a full house on the river is a HUGE mistake.If you let him draw without paying YOU make a mistake.If he calls your turn bet without getting the right odds HE makes a mistake.The player who makes the fewest mistakes doesn't always win... but he wins more often.Also I don't think you can assume that he would "call no matter what", with the three flush cards on board, and he's only commited a fourth of his stack, a skilled player would fold the set or 2 pair. The only hand that MIGHT pay of is a second best flush.

[Royal_Tour 0]

My point is that giving him a free chance to draw to a full house on the river is a HUGE mistake.If you let him draw without paying YOU make a mistake.If he calls your turn bet without getting the right odds HE makes a mistake.The player who makes the fewest mistakes doesn't always win... but he wins more often.Also I don't think you can assume that he would "call no matter what", with the three flush cards on board, and he's only commited a fourth of his stack, a skilled player would fold the set or 2 pair. The only hand that MIGHT pay of is a second best flush.

Yaa.. I'm gonna go ahead and just sorta let you pass on through, you must have been trying to reply to a different thread.I dont know if you saw the part where we held the nuts and are trying to increase our stack size in this MTT.we arent worried about losing, we're worried about not getting added chips.Are you really serious about trying to push him off of 2 pair or a set, just incase the river pairs?There is no Mistakes to be made in this hand. There is only maximizing profit by either A- raising the turn, and hope he calls or pushesB - calling and betting the river, with hopes to get paid off

[JBradburn6 0]

I like just calling the turn, here's my thinking (let me know if I'm wrong...)It shows a little weakness, like maybe I have the A or K of hearts, and want to see the last card. If another heart doesn't hit, he'll put more in the pot with TPTK than he would if you raised the turn.If the board does pair, you might be in trouble, but you're most likely still good. Not sure how I'd play the river if the board pairs.

You get lost buddy? What the hell are you doing in strategy?

[Royal_Tour 0]

You get lost buddy? What the hell are you doing in strategy?

lol. why are u quoting yourself?are u drunk again

[JBradburn6 0]

lol. why are u quoting yourself?are u drunk again

My HOOOOOOSIERS got the W tonight, of corse I'm drunk

[RazorStrap 0]

Yaa.. I'm gonna go ahead and just sorta let you pass on through, you must have been trying to reply to a different thread.I dont know if you saw the part where we held the nuts and are trying to increase our stack size in this MTT.we arent worried about losing, we're worried about not getting added chips.Are you really serious about trying to push him off of 2 pair or a set, just incase the river pairs?There is no Mistakes to be made in this hand. There is only maximizing profit by either A- raising the turn, and hope he calls or pushesB - calling and betting the river, with hopes to get paid off

No, I have the right thread. You said you are in the top ten with 40 players left, right? Nice place to be. I'd sure hate to jeopardize that by giving him a free draw. If he has a set, 10 cards will beat you, so he's about 4.5 to one against making it, so AT LEAST bet 1/3 the pot, that will at least make him slighty wrong to draw.I guess I've tried to milk hands for extra chips and gotten burned enough times that I don't mess around. Yes I would try to push him off two pair or a set, in that situation. But I would also be perfectly happy if he called my pot sized bet, knowing im a big favorite to win a huge pot.Now if I was short stacked, say in the last ten places out of 40, I would try to milk it for all the extra chips I could get, figuring I have little to loose, but if I'm in the top 10, protecting what I have is an important consideration.Your thread has to do with the betting thought process... well, these would be my thoughts. There's not really any right or wrong here, but I would be curious if anyone else out there thinks the way I do on this.You seem to have your mind made up as to how you would play it

[nomad_monad 0]

No, I have the right thread. You said you are in the top ten with 40 players left, right? Nice place to be. I'd sure hate to jeopardize that by giving him a free draw. If he has a set, 10 cards will beat you, so he's about 4.5 to one against making it, so AT LEAST bet 1/3 the pot, that will at least make him slighty wrong to draw.You seem to have your mind made up as to how you would play it

I think what Royal is trying to say is that he is committed to this hand regardless of what happens on the river. Even if the board pairs he's going to bet/call. Thus, he'd like to proceed with the line of how to maximize value assuming hands that could not fill up to beat him, rather than protecting his hand from hands that could.Interesting hand Royal. I'm curious as to what you actually ended up doing.

[Sluggo 0]

It depends whether the villian is willing to go all in on the river with two pair or a set with three hearts on the board. If so, giving a free card is fine.Assuming he is willing to go all in on the river, we should call. When the river card comes, we can use that extra information to control the pot size. If the board pairs and he bets half his stack, we can just call. Conversely, if the board doesn't pair, we can bet all in.I think the potential problem with waiting isn't giving a free card, but giving the villian an opportunity to fold a big hand if a fourth heart hits on the river.

[....Ian.... 0]

ummm i cant believe no one mentioned the fact that if he has a set, he will have a really hard time calling any bet at the river.

[Royal_Tour 0]

ummm i cant believe no one mentioned the fact that if he has a set, he will have a really hard time calling any bet at the river.

I'm not following...If it goes to the river and villain holds a set,and no other heart appears, and we lead out for 1500, or 2k, he is getting 5:1 on his river call with a set.i cant see how he can fold

[RazorStrap 0]

It depends whether the villian is willing to go all in on the river with two pair or a set with three hearts on the board. If so, giving a free card is fine.

O.K. (big sigh) my last post on this.Think about it... if he's willing to go all in on the river with two pair or a set with three hearts on board, and ABSOLUTELY no chance for his hand to improve further... HE sure as hell ought to be willing to go all in on the turn when he has one more card to come and his hand can improve to the probable winner! Why in the world would you let him draw for free?I guarantee he's willing to go all-in on the river with a full house!

[Royal_Tour 0]

O.K. (big sigh) my last post on this.Think about it... if he's willing to go all in on the river with two pair or a set with three hearts on board, and ABSOLUTELY no chance for his hand to improve further... HE sure as hell ought to be willing to go all in on the turn when he has one more card to come and his hand can improve to the probable winner! Why in the world would you let him draw for free?I guarantee he's willing to go all-in on the river with a full house!

yes everyone understands this point.But what also crossed my mind, and what sluggo is saying, is that we can only make money off his hand raising the turn if he does infact hold 1 of these two possibilties, or a smaller flush.but we can make money on the river to a TPTK, two pair, set, flush, over pair, TP with a small kicker etc...because we will be betting only enough to make his pot odds large, thus making a fold on the river very difficult

[RazorStrap 0]

LOLdon't know why this is bugging me so much.There's 7800 in the pot, do you really want to give him a free draw so you can maybe win an extra 1500?I think from an expected value point of view this play would be negative. I'm not up to doing all the math, and we could certainly argue about how many times you lose to the boat and how many times your river bet gets called.but if you play it this way ten times and lose 7800 twice, you're down 15600.Out of the other eight times, If they called 1500 EVERY TIME, which they won't, you would gain an extra 12000, making that play -3600.Yes, occasionally someone might bluff all-in against you and you'll win a big pot, but how much will you occasionally donk off to them when they make their boat?AND don't forget, you are in the top 10 in the tourney already, add what's in the pot right now to your stack, and you gotta be happy. Get greedy and slow play the nuts and you could really cripple yourself.That being said, lets say you do play it this way, can you get more money on the river, and how do you do it?You bet 800 on the turn, he raised to 2400, and you called. A nice play I think, you underbet and he raised trying to see where you are at, or maybe to push you off a four flush. I think it IS confusing that you don't re-raise here with the nuts... it DOES make for a deceptive play.If the board doesn't pair on the river, I think I might be inclined to move all-in here. I think the small bet looks like exactly what it is, an attempt to peddle the nuts. Keep in mind when you get down to 40 players in a tourney, for the most part they are fairly savvy players. And just calling his re-raise on the turn was weird if you have the nuts... I think by moving all-in on the river you can look like you are desperatly trying to push him off his hand because you DON'T have the goods. WTH.... If you want more chips, GET MORE CHIPS!If the river pairs the board.... I don't know how you play THAT **** 'cause all my chips were in on the turn!! LOLInteresting thread, fun to think about, THANKS