odds of this?

[checkymcfold 0]

last night playing stud, i managed to stumble across rolled up aces twice in 20 hands. on a related note, i had a good session.does someone know the odds of this? i could work it out, but i'm lazy and haven't had my coffee yet this morning, and letting someone else do the math might let them feel important.

[freekeffect 0]

My quick calculation is about 128.5-1 for a random set of 20 hands and 11.6-1 if you assume that you were dealt aces on hand #1 and then have to be dealt them again at least once over the next 19 hands.This could be way off.

[checkymcfold 0]

ha, not AA. i'm talking about AAA, rolled up aces. that's got to be super rare on its own, much less twice in 20 hands. i've only had one other rolled up ANYTHING before, ever.

[jjgoldy5 0]

The probability of getting anything rolled up (AAA,KKK, XXX) is approximately 1 hand in 2,550 (51*50). So to do it twice in a twenty hand range is pretty astounding.I'm not 100% sure of how to do that math, maybe 2550*2550/20?Which would be once in 325125 sets of 20 hands.Like I said I'm not sure of that math though.

[commoncents 0]

the odds are very very very very very highi'll go out on a limb here and say..................infinity!

[freekeffect 0]

Ha...shit...I need my coffee too apparently. Sorry about that.

[Skittles 0]

The Odds for rolled up aces are 5524 to 1, getting rolled up aces twice in a row would be 30,525,624 to 1, i'm not sure how to do the math for twice in twenty hands, but it's in that range :-)

[Hotmark777 0]

I was playing Stud in a live casino for 2/4. about 2 hours in I got rolled up Aces and and a Top Ace to go with it, 3 callers to raised pot. 4th card ACE. I had quads in 4 and 3 players. After the 5th card I lost one player, but had two callers to every raise all the way to the end.Thats probably the best stud hand I have ever had.

[ShakeZuma 585]

the odds are very very very very very highi'll go out on a limb here and say..................infinity!

Chuck Norris counted to infinity.Twice.

[semaj550 0]

First, let's assume that you are about to sit down for a 20 hand session and would like to know your chances of being dealt rolled up aces twice.let x = event that player is dealt rolled up acesP(x) = 4/52 * 3/51 * 2/50 = 0.000180995Since each hand is an independant event we can calculate the probalilty of being dealt rolled up aces twice as follows:ley y = even that player is dealted rolled up aces exactly twice in 20 handsP(y) = P(x)^2 * [1 - P(x)]^18 = 0.0000000326528So the odds are about 30,625,245:1 against this happening.Now let's assume you've just been dealt rolled up aces and are going to wager with a friend that you will be dealth them again within the next 19 hands. let z = event that player is dealth rolled up aces a second timeP(z) = 19[P(x)] = 0.00343891So the odds against this happening are about 290:1.

[SpeedKills 0]

I was playing Stud in a live casino for 2/4.  about 2 hours in  I got rolled up Aces and and a Top Ace to go with it, 3 callers to  raised pot.  4th card ACE.  I had quads in 4 and 3 players.  After the 5th card I lost one player, but had two callers to every raise all the way to the end.Thats probably the best stud hand I have ever had.

would have been better if you said you got beat by a straight flush

[semaj550 0]

I was playing Stud in a live casino for 2/4.  about 2 hours in  I got rolled up Aces and and a Top Ace to go with it, 3 callers to  raised pot.  4th card ACE.  I had quads in 4 and 3 players.  After the 5th card I lost one player, but had two callers to every raise all the way to the end.Thats probably the best stud hand I have ever had.

Not to be overly nit-picky but it's hard to have rolled up aces without an ace as a door card.

[foteeninches 0]

First, let's assume that you are about to sit down for a 20 hand session and would like to know your chances of being dealt rolled up aces twice.let x = event that player is dealt rolled up acesP(x) = 4/52 * 3/51 * 2/50 = 0.000180995Since each hand is an independant event we can calculate the probalilty of being dealt rolled up aces twice as follows:ley y = even that player is dealted rolled up aces exactly twice in 20 handsP(y) = P(x)^2 * [1 - P(x)]^18 = 0.0000000326528So the odds are about 30,625,245:1 against this happening.Now let's assume you've just been dealt rolled up aces and are going to wager with a friend that you will be dealth them again within the next 19 hands.  let z = event that player is dealth rolled up aces a second timeP(z) = 19[P(x)] = 0.00343891So the odds against this happening are about 290:1.

that is correct (in my best chris farley voice while taking off my shirt)

[foteeninches 0]

I was playing Stud in a live casino for 2/4.  about 2 hours in  I got rolled up Aces and and a Top Ace to go with it, 3 callers to  raised pot.  4th card ACE.  I had quads in 4 and 3 players.  After the 5th card I lost one player, but had two callers to every raise all the way to the end.Thats probably the best stud hand I have ever had.

Not to be overly nit-picky but it's hard to have rolled up aces without an ace as a door card.

for someone who plays stud youd think hed know the difference between rolled up and wired.

[ForKeeps 0]

First, let's assume that you are about to sit down for a 20 hand session and would like to know your chances of being dealt rolled up aces twice.let x = event that player is dealt rolled up acesP(x) = 4/52 * 3/51 * 2/50 = 0.000180995Since each hand is an independant event we can calculate the probalilty of being dealt rolled up aces twice as follows:ley y = even that player is dealted rolled up aces exactly twice in 20 handsP(y) = P(x)^2 * [1 - P(x)]^18 = 0.0000000326528So the odds are about 30,625,245:1 against this happening.Now let's assume you've just been dealt rolled up aces and are going to wager with a friend that you will be dealth them again within the next 19 hands.  let z = event that player is dealth rolled up aces a second timeP(z) = 19[P(x)] = 0.00343891So the odds against this happening are about 290:1.

It appears you skipped spelling class to take a few more hours of Finite Math.I'm an assssssshooooooollleeee...(insert jack black guitar)

[checkymcfold 0]

So the odds are about 30,625,245:1 against this happening.

that's about what i thought.shit, i knew i shouldn't have wasted that luck on a couple of 200 dollar pots and played the lotto instead. dammit.

[Actuary 3]

Prob of rolled up Aces(4*3*2) / (52*51*50) = 0.000180995call that p.Likelihood P happens N times outta 20..p ^ n * (1-p) ^ (20-n)Rolled up Aces should happen 2 or more times in 20 hands 0.34333% of the time.

[Actuary 3]

semaj550 makes a good point.If you start your count from the hand you get AAA, well, your odds are much higher than a randome 20 hands...

[checkymcfold 0]

semaj550 makes a good point.If you start your count from the hand you get AAA, well, your odds are much higher than a randome 20 hands...

ha, i know. but i still should have played the lottery. :-)

[stealfromblind 0]

the odds are very very very very very highi'll go out on a limb here and say..................infinity!

Chuck Norris counted to infinity.Twice.

Chuck Norris sold his soul to the devil for his rugged good looks and unparalleled martial arts ability. Shortly after the transaction was finalized, Chuck roundhouse kicked the devil in the face and took his soul back. The devil, who appreciates irony, couldn't stay mad and admitted he should have seen it coming. They now play poker every second Wednesday of the month.

[Rude Dog 0]

What a bunch of pinheads...The answer is, it don't happen very freakin' often, and it could happen twice tomorrow.I saw a kid get wired aces back to back in a card room.He just took his money, he didn't break out his HP 12c and start doing the math.

[kennyg1966 0]

odds are very good that you will never get it again!! :shock:

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

What a bunch of pinheads...The answer is, it don't happen very freakin' often, and it could happen twice tomorrow.I saw a kid get wired aces back to back in a card room.He just took his money, he didn't break out his HP 12c and start doing the math.

Odds on this guy being a jackalope?I'll give 2-1.

[Rude Dog 0]

Take comfort in the fact that it's not the first or last bad calculation you've made.

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

Take comfort in the fact that it's not the first or last worthless post I've made.

You'll have that.Welcome to the forums.