way ahead right?

[Scott3705 0]

1/2 nl @ TROP. Relevant players. MP3: 30. He's Asian, getting into trouble for talking Asian at the table to his ffriend. (Sorry, that's all i got). CO: (25-27) bad player. Not overly aggressive or passive. Just generally doesn't know what he's doing. SB: 22 Good player. Solid, TAG. Me: Showed a couple bluffs recently to try to induce some action, now i'm tightening my game up and trying to win show down some hands. Table in general has a lot of people going to the flop. 10-15 preflop is raise is standard. All of us have above max buy in stacks of 300. Hand:one Limper, MP3 raises to 15(standard bet for the table), CO Calls, SB calls, I call with 33, Limper folds.Flop:A 10 3 SB checks, I bet 50. MP3 raises to 125, CO raises all in, SB calls, I think... MP3 calls out of turn. What happened here?

[Davin 0]

if there's a time to fold a set... this might be itif you're lucky, you're looking at a10, a flush draw, and a horribly overplayed aq or ak. but i just think it's too likely for someone to be holding a set of tens here.

[DrZebra 0]

hahaha, it depends on your read of these players.my guess is that CO takes it down with KsQs

[Scott3705 0]

hahaha, it depends on your read of these players.my guess is that CO takes it down with KsQs

Reads: Co is on a flush draw. trying to use a semi bluff. SB i'm worried about and if you read my posts I don't like folding to sets. My thoughts on him was he was looking to check raise this flop. He's not the type to give a free card to the flush, but he could have been fairly sure that some one was going to bet as was I. MP3.... maybe AK, but strangely he looked like he felt like he was pot stuck and was hopin to get lucky.

[DrZebra 0]

obviously, SB is the one you're worried about. The other guys just make harder to dodge. I mean even if you're ahead of all 3, you're 50-50. granted that gives you amazing odds to call, but what percentage of the time are you ahead of SB. it's up to you.you clearly called and lost. sorry.

[Chief 0]

so pot is what? around $950 and its $250 back to you. you could be drawing as slim as 1 out though.SB has us the most worried here. He is a solid player, and one of these players (most likely the SB) has at least top two.AcThAdThAhThAcTsAdTsAhTsAcTcAdTcAhTc [9 combinations for top 2]andThTsThTcTcTs [3 combinations for set of tens]I think making it 70 / 30 for two pair / set as the best holding for this grouping of villains is a little light on the set side so lets be conservative and say 60 / 40 (to also include for the case with Aces)We need to win this pot 20% of the time for a call to be profitable.****Scenario 1We are up against a flush draw, top two, and top pair:3c 3d 391 47.68 429 52.32 0 0.00 0.477Ac Td 109 13.29 709 86.46 2 0.24 0.134Ks Qs 306 37.32 505 61.59 9 1.10 0.379Kc Ad 3 0.37 806 98.29 11 1.34 0.010'********Scenario 2We are up against a flush draw, set of tens, and top pair:3c 3d 39 4.76 781 95.24 0 0.00 0.048Tc Td 460 56.10 360 43.90 0 0.00 0.561Ks Qs 306 37.32 505 61.59 9 1.10 0.379Kc Ad 6 0.73 805 98.17 9 1.10 0.013.477 x 60 + .048 x 40 = 28.62 + 1.92 = 30.54being on the more wary side... 50 / 50 top two versus set of either tens or aces:23.85 + 2.4 = 26.25>>>>> in summaryWe win this pot around 30% of the time, while the call only requires us to win it 20% to be break even. Many times they are going to have a better set here, but this is clearly a profitable call you need to make here.Thanks for the interesting hand Scott

[Scott3705 0]

so pot is what? around $950 and its $250 back to you. you could be drawing as slim as 1 out though.SB has us the most worried here. He is a solid player, and one of these players (most likely the SB) has at least top two.AcThAdThAhThAcTsAdTsAhTsAcTcAdTcAhTc [9 combinations for top 2]andThTsThTcTcTs [3 combinations for set of tens]I think making it 70 / 30 for two pair / set as the best holding for this grouping of villains is a little light on the set side so lets be conservative and say 60 / 40 (to also include for the case with Aces)We need to win this pot 20% of the time for a call to be profitable.****Scenario 1We are up against a flush draw, top two, and top pair:3c 3d 391 47.68 429 52.32 0 0.00 0.477Ac Td 109 13.29 709 86.46 2 0.24 0.134Ks Qs 306 37.32 505 61.59 9 1.10 0.379Kc Ad 3 0.37 806 98.29 11 1.34 0.010'********Scenario 2We are up against a flush draw, set of tens, and top pair:3c 3d 39 4.76 781 95.24 0 0.00 0.048Tc Td 460 56.10 360 43.90 0 0.00 0.561Ks Qs 306 37.32 505 61.59 9 1.10 0.379Kc Ad 6 0.73 805 98.17 9 1.10 0.013.477 x 60 + .048 x 40 = 28.62 + 1.92 = 30.54being on the more wary side... 50 / 50 top two versus set of either tens or aces:23.85 + 2.4 = 26.25>>>>> in summaryWe win this pot around 30% of the time, while the call only requires us to win it 20% to be break even. Many times they are going to have a better set here, but this is clearly a profitable call you need to make here.Thanks for the interesting hand Scott

Funny... I can do this type of analysis later after the hand, but I in the hand it's just " duh...well i'm ahead if he has two pair and behind if he has a set." lolEdit: based on my read of the hand (which you would just have to go with) I eventually felt like i was up against 2 flush draws which makes the hand more profitable.

[Chief 0]

Funny... I can do this type of analysis later after the hand, but I in the hand it's just " duh...well i'm ahead if he has two pair and behind if he has a set." lolEdit: based on my read of the hand (which you would just have to go with) I eventually felt like i was up against 2 flush draws which makes the hand more profitable.

I definitely dont do all of this in my head, but it's good to assign some really rough percentages (ala Harrington) to hand probabilities.Even though the numbers I presented show the call is pretty clear cut, when I am in the situation making the call, its one of those things you do sort of grudgingly -- like man ... why cant I just be all in with the CO here or whoever is being an idiot with AJ or whatever, haha

[elkang 0]

I think I'm folding this hand. I'm not there, but I believe I'm facing a set of tens or Aces even here.In the past, I've been the last to act - and threw away my bottom set. And then prcoeded to see myself win the pot if I had stayed in (making a boat or quads).I guess I should listen to Harrington and just plan on losing money with a set.

[petersun 0]

I just can't convince myself that the all-in guy doesn't have me beat at this point. I'd fold. I see too many bottom trips losing to mid and high trips for me to discount that.

[Scott3705 0]

I just can't convince myself that the all-in guy doesn't have me beat at this point.  I'd fold.  I see too many bottom trips losing to mid and high trips for me to discount that.

Definately not discounting mid trips. It's the only hand I'm worried about. Completely discounting top trips.

[pokerplayer24 0]

You have a set on a nonthreatening board. You cant fold your hand. You'll be shocked how often you're looking at AK, A10 and a flush draw often enough here to call. In NL holdem you pay off higher sets for your entire stack, thats just how it is.

[iggymcfly 0]

Yeah, in a 1-2 live game, you can't even think about folding a set here. I'd say you're probably ahead about 60-70% of the the time here.

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

You have a set on a nonthreatening board.  You cant fold your hand.  You'll be shocked how often you're looking at AK, A10 and a flush draw often enough here to call.  In NL holdem you pay off higher sets for your entire stack, thats just how it is.

I agree wholeheartedly. It's amazing the kinds of moves that people would make on a pot like this. For my experience live, I'd place one on a hand range of A8os to AKos, and the other on something like, Q10s with four to the flush.You people highly, highly overestimate the type of players we're up against. How many times have you seen some jagoff make a move with A9os on this board? It's not rocket science people, why else are you playing pocket threes if not to hit the set? Having set over set is like overhead, it just happens sometimes and you pay it off.So because you have two jackoffs infront of you betting into your pot you're beat? My God, pull yourselves together.

[TheIceman05 0]

Against donkeys, you gotta be pretty sure you're beat to muck here (assuming your goal is to make as much money as you can). Unless you have some specific reason to believe you behind a hand like AA or TT, you're going to have to call. That being said, I mucked the exact same hand on the exact same board at the Tropicana (in Vegas) playing 1/2, and I was right. But when I did it, it was okay. If you mucked, it was dumb.:)Ice

[Chief 0]

I guess I should listen to Harrington and just plan on losing money with a set.

Definitely plan on losing money with sets.Just assign that possibility a level of certainty in your mind.Then assess all the other possiblities. Look at your pot odds. Go from there.Short of some great physical read where some novice player is completely hyped up about his hand and cant wait to flip over his cards, whispering into his girlfriend's ear "look honey THREE TENS" -- even then you cannot be one hundred percent certain that you are beat. The villain in this particular example could be lying (3.7423% certainty) or stupid (8.53336% certainty) or both for a 3:2 combined certainty multiplier.

[TeeSludge 0]

Not to hijack your thread scott, but I'd like to post a similar hand and get everyone's take on the hand.. It was also at the Trop, however, it was 2/5 NL. Relevant Stacks:Me: UTG ($750)MP2 ($290)BB ( 1,100)MP2 is tight player post flop, but will call with lots of hands pre-flop. BB has shown himself to be rather erratic, playing lots of different hands, however, he plays most hands passively post-flop.I limp UTG with 3 3 MP2 limps, a late position player makes it 30, button calls, SB calls, BB calls, I Call and MP2 calls. So we take the flop 6 handed with $180 in the pot. Typical Friday night Trop game, lol.Flop:K 7 3 Everyone checks.Turn: 9 BB bets 35, I raise to 75, MP2 moves all-in for $260, BB thinks for about 30 seconds and calls action back to me??? MP2 most likely has either two pair or a higher set. BB could have a number of different hands.. straight draw, flush draw, two pair or higher set?So basically I'm stuck between the two of them with one all-in already.

[Chief 0]

Hand 2:I'd say MP2 probably has you beat.But I think we win this hand at least 20% of the time (Pot is 775 and it's 185 more to you to call.)Therefore I believe folding is not an option.We have two *realistic* options.Option 1:Call, check behind BB who will likely check a river since he is so passive.Option 2:Push.A GOLDEN window of opportunity has presented itself here. We are likely ahead of BB's hand range here. If we push we can get him to call off a lot more money as an underdog going into the river. I would love to get all my money in on this turn in with the BB.I'm not even sure I fold if MP2 shows me a set of sevens.I probably still think pushing is a profitable play if he does. :twisted:I shall take door number two Bob

[TeeSludge 0]

Chief,You and I view this hand the exact same way. That is exactly what I thought when I was trying to make my decision. I thought MP2 may have me beat, but I could still win approx. 450 on the side from BB.

[Pokerghost2 0]

take my advice and make that call. nobody is good enough to be folding sets in that spot, sometimes ur gonna be killed by that set of 10s, but other times ur gonna be kicking urself and losing sleep cuz u folded the winner. more often than not u will be folding the winner.

[Scott3705 0]

Forgot that I had only posted results for this hand in general. Honestly I don't think you can say definitively what was a good play without being at the table and going with your instincts. I just thought this would be a good hand for disucssion. Results from General:" guess i got everyone's input that I'm going to. Results don't matter much. I was looking to see if anyone thought it was right to fold bottom set with effectively 4 people all in.If you read my NL Section post, I got the physical read from him that he felt pot committed to call because he felt like he was getting a price. Began to think he was on the flush draw and maybe he was the one with KsQs. I basically talked at the SB for 2 minutes. I put him on Two hands: TT or AT. I couldn't get a read either way so it was a coin flip in my head. I went by my rule never to fold to a set and called.SB: AT 2 pair. MP3: KsQs (patted myself on the back for that read), CO 7s8s. (liked seeing him take two of those outs away from MP3).River was a T, but that doesn't matter."