tight table... strong draw... tiny pot

[Abbaddabba 0]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is BB with [9h], [6h]. 6 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.Flop: (3 SB) [7h], [Js], [Td] (3 players)SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.Turn: (1.50 BB) [4h] (3 players)SB bets ?

[Vade 0]

I don't like it because the pot is so damn small.Sure you've got a ton of outs, but you're putting in presumably 3 bets to win like 7 bets if he calls you down. Ick.

[Abbaddabba 0]

The idea is that he recognizes that it's a small pot and, given that he's tight-ish, he's likely to fold middle pair here, and i win the pot with something that has zero showdown value UI.

[Actuary 3]

your hand is not even good enough to call, obviously.the pot is way too small to risk a 3-bet or even to risk a call.bad play, imo.

[AlphaOmega 0]

If you have a read on the villain in this hand, that he is tightish and capable of folding (or perhaps tricky and bluffing on the turn after everyone checked the flop) then I think a raise is o.k. here. Not something I would do in this small of a pot, but I can see why you might want to take advantage of your opponents playing style.

[Helicopter 0]

I see what you are trying to do, but it looks pretty thin. You need a pretty good read on your opponent to be doing this.BTW, where is your Waterloo?

[Abbaddabba 0]

ontario

[Mattnxtc 0]

heres the problem i have with this hand...while u do have draws they arent exactly strong draws. ur odds of hittin the runner runner flush are about 4.2% so while u have picked up the backdoor flush draw the odds still arent with u on that. Other than that you have a gut shot which is another long shot you dont have odds for, and to top it off you have no shot at winning unimproved. I think to make this play you wanna have k q in which you have around 20 outs and are only a slight dog to any pair and you would have proper odds to call even that betjust my 2cents

[Helicopter 0]

heres the problem i have with this hand...while u do have draws they arent exactly strong draws. ur odds of hittin the runner runner flush are about 4.2% so while u have picked up the backdoor flush draw the odds still arent with u on that. Other than that you have a gut shot which is another long shot you dont have odds for, and to top it off you have no shot at winning unimproved. I think to make this play you wanna have k q in which you have around 20 outs and are only a slight dog to any pair and you would have proper odds to call even that betjust my 2cents

He's not really trying to make his draw. He's running a semi-bluff trying to push his tight opponent off the hand. If he happens to get called it doesn't hurt that he has outs. I don't think the number of outs is really the main issue here. (I'm not saying I agree with this play.)

[Helicopter 0]

The idea is that he recognizes that it's a small pot and, given that he's tight-ish, he's likely to fold middle pair here, and i win the pot with something that has zero showdown value UI.

Are you planning to follow up with a bet on the river if he calls and you don't improve. You sure aren't going to win the pot showing down 9-high.

[Mattnxtc 0]

i just read his review of the player. Im assuming he meant the sb was tight. What about the button? he is still in the hand and he could have slow played a monster waiting for the turn since he would have been so far ahead. Its just not a good play. If you are going to semi-bluff this hand. then the flop is the place to do it. i dont like semi-bluffing when i dont have position.

[Verdimme 0]

heres the problem i have with this hand...while u do have draws they arent exactly strong draws.  ur odds of hittin the runner runner flush are about 4.2% so while u have picked up the backdoor flush draw the odds still arent with u on that. Other than that you have a gut shot which is another long shot you dont have odds for, and to top it off you have no shot at winning unimproved.  

Hmm he does have the actual flush draw at the turn giving him a total of 13 outs with the gutshot, which i think are all winning outs. However, this is still not good enough imo to call or raise his bet on that turn. Im just folding it right there. I cant be bothered with a pot of that size. Lots to lose, little to win.

[Mattnxtc 0]

heres the problem i have with this hand...while u do have draws they arent exactly strong draws.  ur odds of hittin the runner runner flush are about 4.2% so while u have picked up the backdoor flush draw the odds still arent with u on that. Other than that you have a gut shot which is another long shot you dont have odds for, and to top it off you have no shot at winning unimproved.  

Hmm he does have the actual flush draw at the turn giving him a total of 13 outs with the gutshot, which i think are all winning outs. However, this is still not good enough imo to call or raise his bet on that turn. Im just folding it right there. I cant be bothered with a pot of that size. Lots to lose, little to win.

yes he does pick up the flush draw...but thats not my point. my point is that the cards are only gonna come runner runner 4% of the time...So while he did hit a heart i think he shouldnt be relying on hitting the heart on the river...yes he picked up 9 more outs but i really think his odds are a lot lower

[Verdimme 0]

yes he does pick up the flush draw...but thats not my point. my point is that the cards are only gonna come runner runner 4% of the time...So while he did hit a heart i think he shouldnt be relying on hitting the heart on the river...yes he picked up 9 more outs but i really think his odds are a lot lowerHmm are you serious, or are you kidding me :-) When you look at it from the flop, yeah, that chance is 4%. But not on the turn, cause one heart actually got there. Then we re-evaluate and count our outs again. Then his flushdraw is worth 9 outs..

[Actuary 3]

yes he does pick up the flush draw...but thats not my point. my point is that the cards are only gonna come runner runner 4% of the time...So while he did hit a heart i think he shouldnt be relying on hitting the heart on the river...yes he picked up 9 more outs but i really think his odds are a lot lower

this could explain the downswing.:wall:

[Abbaddabba 0]

Uhm, yeah. I dont think you quite understand how probability works (matt).It comes down to how often you think he calls, folds and 3bets. Here's a hypothetical, where he folds 1/3rd, calls 1/3rd, and 3bets 1/3rd of the time.1/3 times i win 2.5BB's outright1/3 times i win 25% of 5.5BB's at the expense of voluntarily putting in 2BB's, which is a loss of .625BB's1/3 times i win 25% of 7.5BB's at the expense of voluntarily putting in 3BB's, which is a loss of 1.125BB's That's a weighted average of +.25BB's.That assumes that i never have any pair outs, that my flush and straight outs are always good, and that i have zero implied odds. In reality, i do have implied odds of (usually) one bet, my outs are not always clean and i occasionally do have pair outs. Additionally, a bluff probably _is_ profitable here.I'm not saying those probabilities are necessarily accurate. Depending on how tight the table is, the more likely it is that you get a fold, the more desirable it is to raise.

[Mattnxtc 0]

yes he does pick up the flush draw...but thats not my point. my point is that the cards are only gonna come runner runner 4% of the time...So while he did hit a heart i think he shouldnt be relying on hitting the heart on the river...yes he picked up 9 more outs but i really think his odds are a lot lower

this could explain the downswing.:wall:

nah

[Actuary 3]

I'm certain I could be making more by bluff raising the turns against the right opponents.But, I would do it with a bigger pot.Interesting discussion about whether it's best to bluff a small or big pot.Small pots are easier to steal; but big pots are worth stealing.

[CobaltBlue 662]

In reading TOP last evening, I came across a section on semi-bluff-raising the turn. This is a move that I almost never make, and I'm just wondering whether it's a profitable move at low limits. It seems like bet/fold is such a super rare move in low limit that it probably isn't.

[Abbaddabba 0]

It generally isn't good at low limits, the reaosn being because few players are tight.If you find people who are tight, you shouldnt NOT semi-bluff the turn because it's at the lower limits.You need to be asking 'how tight is tight' to know whether this is a good sitaution, and i dont have an answer to that because i didnt have poker tracker running at the time, nor was i at the table for long.