Bubba83 0 Posted November 6, 2005 Share Posted November 6, 2005 Ultimate Bet 2/4 Hold'em 6 Max (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is BB with K:spade:, A:club:. 1 fold, CO calls.Flop: (6.50 SB) 4:club:, T:diamond:, 8:spade: (3 players)Hero bets, Hero calls.Turn: (5.25 BB) A:spade: (3 players)Hero.....New to the table, have only played 50 hands with CO. CO was aggressive preflop as he should be in 6 max, but never seemed to be too out of line. When he check raises the flop I am pretty sure he has that ten. There are no real drawing hands here he could have to use the free card play. The only hand i'm worried about that could be drawing is 10s xs. Link to post Share on other sites
checkymcfold 0 Posted November 6, 2005 Share Posted November 6, 2005 i think i am c/r-ing here at 6-max, though i don't often play shorthanded, so i could be wrong.AT seems to be quite reasonable here, too, so if i get 3-bet, i am at least considering folding the river UI (though i won't, probably). Link to post Share on other sites
Mattnxtc 0 Posted November 6, 2005 Share Posted November 6, 2005 i like the c/r assuming you think that he is goign to bet for sure Link to post Share on other sites
Bubba83 0 Posted November 6, 2005 Author Share Posted November 6, 2005 If I know this player is capable of folding a hand like 99, 10 9, J 10, Q 10, or K 10 to my turn c/r, should I be check/calling and then betting the river? This way I'd earn 2 bets instead of just 1 if he has that range. This is a theoretical question of course since I don't have a read that says this player would fold those holdings to a turn c/r. Link to post Share on other sites
Mattnxtc 0 Posted November 6, 2005 Share Posted November 6, 2005 heres the problem with c/c the turn and raising the river. If he is the player that you say he is...he is likely going to fold any hand that that you can beat and probalby raise any hand that beats you. Dont give him a chance to imporve to the best hand on the river Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 6, 2005 Share Posted November 6, 2005 Check/raise.He might fold, but he might not. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,354 Posted November 6, 2005 Share Posted November 6, 2005 c/r turn, fold to a three bet. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 6, 2005 Share Posted November 6, 2005 c/r turn, fold to a three bet. :shock: Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,354 Posted November 6, 2005 Share Posted November 6, 2005 c/r turn, fold to a three bet. :shock:what one pair hands do you think he's three betting? Unless you have maniac reads, turn three bets should be respected. People lose money all the time calling down three bets with TP/TK. Thin khe's three betting AQ? JT? Link to post Share on other sites
Wingmaster05 0 Posted November 7, 2005 Share Posted November 7, 2005 c/r turn, fold to a three bet. :shock:what one pair hands do you think he's three betting? Unless you have maniac reads, turn three bets should be respected. People lose money all the time calling down three bets with TP/TK. Thin khe's three betting AQ? JT?Yes. He is probably thinking any ace is check raising here, so AJ might do the same. Right? Link to post Share on other sites
hotbacon 0 Posted November 7, 2005 Share Posted November 7, 2005 c/r turn, fold to a three bet. :shock:what one pair hands do you think he's three betting? Unless you have maniac reads, turn three bets should be respected. People lose money all the time calling down three bets with TP/TK. Thin khe's three betting AQ? JT?Folding to a 3-bet is really bad. This could be AQ/AJ. Tx with a flush draw. It could be something completely illogical. Most of the time it's two pair, which you have odds to chase ( 10.25:1). You have to call a 3-bet, and if you're confident to fold TPTK getting 11.25:1 against an unknown 6-max player on the river when he bets, you sould switch games. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 7, 2005 Share Posted November 7, 2005 c/r turn, fold to a three bet. :shock:what one pair hands do you think he's three betting? Unless you have maniac reads, turn three bets should be respected. People lose money all the time calling down three bets with TP/TK. Thin khe's three betting AQ? JT?We have lots of outs against any flopped 2 pair.Villian could also have a lot of stuff hotbacon said. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,354 Posted November 7, 2005 Share Posted November 7, 2005 c/r turn, fold to a three bet. :shock:what one pair hands do you think he's three betting? Unless you have maniac reads, turn three bets should be respected. People lose money all the time calling down three bets with TP/TK. Thin khe's three betting AQ? JT?Folding to a 3-bet is really bad. This could be AQ/AJ. Tx with a flush draw. It could be something completely illogical. Most of the time it's two pair, which you have odds to chase ( 10.25:1). You have to call a 3-bet, and if you're confident to fold TPTK getting 11.25:1 against an unknown 6-max player on the river when he bets, you sould switch games.it's not 10.25, it's 6.1. you have to use reverse implied odds here, 'cause if he's three betting the turn, you have to assume he's betting the river, which if you call this raise, you will be river calling. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 7, 2005 Share Posted November 7, 2005 it's not 10.25, it's 6.1It's not 6:1, it's 6.25:1 :-) Anyway, we have odds to call down here if we get 3-bet. Let's assume since you think we should call the river regardless, that we have ~ 10% chance of winning at showdown UI. This is reasonable IMO.CO's likely hands if he 3 bets are:AT (6 combos - 3 outs)A8 (6 combos - 6 outs)A4 ( 6 combos - 9 outs)T8s (2 combos - 8 outs)TT ( 3 combos - 0 outs)88 (3 combos - 0 outs)44 (3 combos -0 outs)Bayesian analysis gives us an average of 4.3 outs against this range of hands. We'll be conservative with this estimate, and bump it down to 4 outs.After villian 3 bets the turn, there will be 10.25 BB's in the pot. By calling down, we are risking 2 to win 11.25. There are 8 known cards (since we gave villians range), so we have a 4/44 chance of improving.EV of calling:0.10 x 11.25 + 0.90 x 4/44 x 11.25 - 0.90 x 40/44 x 2 = +0.41BBSo calling down shows a profit of 0.41BB. If we fold, we get nothing. Link to post Share on other sites
TJ_Eckleburg 0 Posted November 7, 2005 Share Posted November 7, 2005 Haven't read replies.I like stop'n'going more than check raising, because a free card here would way suck. I think pocket pairs and tens check through here often enough to suck.I'm asking myself that IF I lead the turn, do I 3-bet if he raises? I wanna take the lead here, but I don't want to spew into a set or AT. I'm thinking lead the turn and lead the river if called... but I can't decide what to do if raised. I'm gonna read replies. Link to post Share on other sites
TJ_Eckleburg 0 Posted November 7, 2005 Share Posted November 7, 2005 Having read replies...Why is a check/raise much better than bet/calling or bet/raising? Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 7, 2005 Share Posted November 7, 2005 Having read replies...Why is a check/raise much better than bet/calling or bet/raising?Good question.We probably have the best hand right now. Villain will probably bet. Check/raising gets more money in. I would like bet/calling a lot more with say, A9. Link to post Share on other sites
TJ_Eckleburg 0 Posted November 7, 2005 Share Posted November 7, 2005 Returning to the "what if we get our check/raise 3-betted..."We have to at least call if we get 3-bet on the turn, I think.I think a stop n go is better because I'm willing to bet/3-bet the turn. If he has enough to cap that's definitely bad. Maybe bet/3-bet/call, and check/call any river?And lead non-face cards, draw missers, 4's and 8's on the river if called.It seems better to me than check/raising and getting 3-bet and still knowing nothing...But I can't shake the feeling that it's a spew. Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Anonymous Posted November 7, 2005 Share Posted November 7, 2005 it's not 10.25, it's 6.1It's not 6:1, it's 6.25:1 :-) Anyway, we have odds to call down here if we get 3-bet. Let's assume since you think we should call the river regardless, that we have ~ 10% chance of winning at showdown UI. This is reasonable IMO.CO's likely hands if he 3 bets are:AT (6 combos - 3 outs)A8 (6 combos - 6 outs)A4 ( 6 combos - 9 outs)T8s (2 combos - 8 outs)TT ( 3 combos - 0 outs)88 (3 combos - 0 outs)44 (3 combos -0 outs)Bayesian analysis gives us an average of 4.3 outs against this range of hands. We'll be conservative with this estimate, and bump it down to 4 outs.After villian 3 bets the turn, there will be 10.25 BB's in the pot. By calling down, we are risking 2 to win 11.25. There are 8 known cards (since we gave villians range), so we have a 4/44 chance of improving.EV of calling:0.10 x 11.25 + 0.90 x 4/44 x 11.25 - 0.90 x 40/44 x 2 = +0.41BBSo calling down shows a profit of 0.41BB. If we fold, we get nothing.I know I belong in microlimit, but I have a quick question if I may...How much of this math do you actually do while you're playing? I guess you see where I'm going with this...is math this complex really useful?I just ask because I want to know how much of this I need to incorporate into my game as I'm learning and trying to move up. Link to post Share on other sites
Bubba83 0 Posted November 7, 2005 Author Share Posted November 7, 2005 i think bet/3bet is a spew. What does he raise on the flop and then raise on the turn? He knows when we continuation bet/call his raise we probably have either AQ or AK, either of those improved on the turn and he's still raising us? I'd call down if we took the stop and go line, but I like check/raise better in this hand because there weren't any draws he'd be using the free card play for on the flop.Also, If we c/r and get 3 bet, I think I'm calling down UI. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 8, 2005 Share Posted November 8, 2005 I know I belong in microlimit, but I have a quick question if I may... How much of this math do you actually do while you're playing? I guess you see where I'm going with this...is math this complex really useful? I just ask because I want to know how much of this I need to incorporate into my game as I'm learning and trying to move up.Haha, don't worry. No one does this kind of math at the table.That's not to say it isn't useful. Many situations you encounter in poker are very similar. If you do this type of hand analysis afterwards, you will know in the future how to make the right play.Basically what you should take away from this is that if you have top pair on the turn and you get raised/3-bet, you should often call down if your hand has some chance of being best. This is because the pot will usually be fairly large, and your hand has outs against an opponents range.As you get more experience, you will be able to narrow/shorten an opponents range and adjust accordingly. You will never be able to get the exact numbers at a table, but the more you analyze hands like this, the better feel you will have when these situations come up at the table, and the better decisions you will make. Link to post Share on other sites
speedz99 145 Posted November 8, 2005 Share Posted November 8, 2005 Thanks screech. Link to post Share on other sites
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