j j

[Canada 0]

Another problem with the flop raise is when the MP 3-bets and CO &/or button folds.You're not getting your 25% then

[Smasharoo 0]

Another problem with the flop raise is when the MP 3-bets and CO &/or button folds.You're not getting your 25% thenYeah I'm getting more.That's terrible. I hate folding hands and increasing my chances of winning.Smash,our equity isnt big enough to exploit on the flop. If it's 25% it barely made it there. I think its closer to 23%.I don't think the flop decision is close at all. It looks like a good check/call.Still disagree.Tell me how many outs you think we have.Thanks.

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

Still disagree. Tell me how many outs you think we have. Thanks.

I think we ideally have 4 aces and 4 nines... and it's obvious a lot of them are dead in other people's hands, and we can easily be drawing to split or drawing against a higher set. Even 6 is a pretty rosy and unrealistic view of the world.No way I think we should lead this flop.

[wrto4556 0]

Tell me how many outs you think we have.

Not really the point.Lets go beyond our hand. Most of the hands of our opponents really connected with this flop. We still lose *often* when we make our hand...we also *chop* the pot sometimes when our hand is good. Our equity is low so we dont have an edge to exploit.

[thecamelot 0]

This is .50/1 somebody's got an A.

???

Yeah I know 12-1. However this guy has an A way more than 7.5% of the time.

That's backwards. You have to be ahead less than 92% of the time for this call to be profitable. I think it's an easy call.

[guinevar 0]

Why would you call the river?This is .50/1 somebody's got an A. Yeah I know 12-1. However this guy has an A way more than 7.5% of the time.

Then by all means fold. :-) :? :oops: :x :cry: :wall: :doh: :hand:

Why the hostility?Or are you trying to prove your superiority by insulting a semi-regular poster?Seriously. I hope you feel proud and good. What the censored did I do to merit that response?

This is .50/1 somebody's got an A.

???

Yeah I know 12-1. However this guy has an A way more than 7.5% of the time.

That's backwards. You have to be ahead less than 92% of the time for this call to be profitable. I think it's an easy call.

:clap: :dance:

[Actuary 3]

outs..just practicing...can we say 9: 3.5 outs, disc for flush possibleA: 3.5 outs, disc for flush possibleboat: .57.5. outsHow much more do we disc for counterfeit boats, or splitting str8 with another J ?How much do we add for a set of J's being good sometimes... at least 6 outs remaining seems plausible.Given my vast experience in LHE, I'd stop here and consider this discussion over. .................now to none of my biz...and HtotheHotch: dude, if getting flamed with a series of emoticons from guinevesence ruffles your feathers, you might be too sensitive.

[guinevar 0]

and HtotheHotch: dude, if getting flamed with a series of emoticons from guinevesence ruffles your feathers, you might be too sensitive.

Thanks actuary, I always liked you.

[KDawgCometh 2]

You have to be ahead less than 92% of the time for this call to be profitable. I think it's an easy call.

honestly, I seriously doubt that we are ahead that often. We have to logically be ahead that percentage of the time, this board doesn't lend itself to us being good here enough times to call it

[econ_tim 0]

could someone run the numbers through pokerstove for the flop?i'm still curious about italso say what ranges of hands you are using for MP2, CO and BBi'll do it when i get home if no one else doe

[screech 0]

You have to be ahead less than 92% of the time for this call to be profitable. I think it's an easy call.

honestly, I seriously doubt that we are ahead that often. We have to logically be ahead that percentage of the time, this board doesn't lend itself to us being good here enough times to call it

CO called 3 bets cold PF. To me, this means he either has two high cards (with likely an ace), or a decent pp (maybe AA-99)CO betting the turn does not necessarily mean he has a straight. He could have TT, KQ, or maybe even a worse two pair. But the fact that everyone else folded the turn means it's much more likely than usualy that he doesn't hold a weak two pair, and much more likely that he holds an ace.

[Smasharoo 0]

Lets go beyond our hand. Most of the hands of our opponents really connected with this flop. We still lose *often* when we make our hand...we also *chop* the pot sometimes when our hand is good. Our equity is low so we dont have an edge to exploit.It's .50/1.Assuming the other three players in the hand are not only playing rationaly but wouldn't have peeled this flop with, say, 33 is gving them far, far too much credit.This is just arguing for the sake of arguing at this point. If you believe that the other three people who made it to this flop and called one all connected, and that someone has us beat and someone else has the flush draw and that the other guy has a jack too, well, hell, might as well fold.good luck.

[guinevar 0]

I am less than three midgets.

That is all.

[Actuary 3]

I am greater than three midgets.

That is all.

Actually less than, as it's written.

[guinevar 0]

I am greater than three midgets.

That is all.

Actually less than, as it's written.

I put less than. :-)It's ok, I give you mad props on the Brian Regan reference.

[Actuary 3]

I am greater than three midgets.

That is all.

Actually less than, as it's written.

I put less than. :-)It's ok, I give you mad props on the Brian Regan reference.

Liar.I quoted u str8 up.I was laughing so hard at the Brian Regan concert, my tummy hurt.Edit: Hmmm.... weird..why no Edit on your post...test edit...

[guinevar 0]

I am greater than three midgets.

That is all.

Actually less than, as it's written.

I put less than. :-)It's ok, I give you mad props on the Brian Regan reference.

Liar.I quoted u str8 up.I was laughing so hard at the Brian Regan concert, my tummy hurt.Edit: Hmmm.... weird..why no Edit on your post...test edit...

No need to test it, I actually found my error and corrected in inbetween when you clicked the quote button and the post button.Fun times, being an English major.

[Canada 0]

Another problem with the flop raise is when the MP 3-bets and CO &/or button folds.You're not getting your 25% thenYeah I'm getting more.That's terrible.  I hate folding hands and increasing my chances of winning.

The point being that folding rubbish hands here acheives nothing at a high cost. Assuming you are not winning on the flop your equity gain for folding rubbish hands like 44 or 87 is going to be less than 1%, run some sims if you don't believe that. You only gain equity from their share of split pot (if it comes A, J on the turn/river for example)Generally folding hands is a good thing, but it is fairly obvious from this board that you need to improve to win, and the only hands that can fold to help you are A or 9 holdings, thereby cleaning up your Jack outs, but you have to fold ALL A & 9 holdings - at .50/1 this is not happening.The only way raising the flop can be correct here is:1) Your currently winning - anyone like their chances?or2) You fold every hand that is holding an A or a 9or3) You have an equity edge - for this you need 7 outs with minimal or no redraws, and 3 callersRaising this flop is throwing money down the toilet

[JaysonWeber 0]

Tell me how many outs you think we have.

Not really the point.Lets go beyond our hand. Most of the hands of our opponents really connected with this flop. We still lose *often* when we make our hand...we also *chop* the pot sometimes when our hand is good. Our equity is low so we dont have an edge to exploit.

Come on Smash, It's pretty easy once you try.