tournement updates for the borgata

[loxo 0]

Maybe he's so "worried" about finishing good that he unknowingly(or knowingly) is changing the way he would normally play hands?  He even said in the quote "I really want to win." I know we all want to win but maybe that is weighing on his conscious instead of just playing cards?Look at me, trying to give pointers to a guy who would slaughter me anyday in poker.

I found that a bit strange too. It felt to me like he may have been thinking that he needed to prove something. Sooooo not true. DN has nothing to prove to anybody, lets hope he gets over this little hurdle and gets on with enjoying his poker. All the best of luck!

[Poker4Me2005 0]

I think DN is over analyzing situations sometimes and its costing him. I may not have the experience or anywhere near the success he's had but it seems pretty clear he needs to "risk it" with KK in that spot. Odds of someone having AA when you have KK is 1 in 26 I believe. In a tournament situation I would say you'd have to play KK preflop for any amount 99.99% of the time, 100% of the time given his situation. He had already invested almost 25% of his chips and he was at half his starting stack very early in the tournament when faced with the decision. His opponent probably has at least twice as many chips as him, although it wasnt said. He could have just wanted to get all the money in preflop with a hand like AK or QQ or JJ because DN was shortstacked.DN obviously isnt worried about getting knocked out and I'm sure he would be able to find something to occupy him if he were to make an early exit. There are definitely worse spots to get knocked out in than all-in shortstacked with KK preflop.

[Rokuban 0]

Odds of someone having AA when you have KK is 1 in 26 I believe.

I'll try a guess : Odds of someone having AA are 1:221.Odds of someone having AA on a 10 handed table are 1:22.Odds of someone having AA on a 10 handed table if you hold KK are slightly under 1:24.1:24 is low but, in a tournament, you're risking your life on that assumption.

[Loismustdie 0]

How will Daniel will ever get back to the form he was in in 2004?  He just doesn't dedicate enough of his time to playing poker.  He is so heavily envolved with the business aspect that he doesn't "practice" enough.  Tom Brady, despite all he has done in the past, would suck it up on  Sunday if he didn't go over his plays, go study film, throw routes to his recievers to work on timing, ect.  Do you see what I am getting at?  Make no mistake they (Daniel and Tom Brady) are great players, if not the best, but you got to be sharp.  Playing one tournament every month is not staying sharp.The difference between Daniel and people like John Phan, The Grinder, Scott Fischman, Phil Ivey, is that they play poker.  Daniel just benefits (probally more then anyone) from it.  You will have a tough time convincing me we will see him at a final table until he starts playing poker again.  Honestly, he needs to play online more.  Sorry thats just my 2 cents.

Horse s hit. Tournament poker is not practice makes perfect- you get in, you get focused, you use position to accumulate chips, you play aggressive- and you have good results. For the record I would probably would not have folded the kings- if I ran into aces so be it. I can play 30 tournaments in a week and play like s hit in all of them- it's the weeks where I only have time for one that I play the best. Why? I am that much more focused. What the little overview doesn't show is that he probably made a buttload of bad calls after that laydown, that would get to anyboy. Maybe I should start showing some of my bluffs, generally I don't do it. Looks like in this case the whole point of showing a bluff worked.

[Loismustdie 0]

Maybe he's so "worried" about finishing good that he unknowingly(or knowingly) is changing the way he would normally play hands?  He even said in the quote "I really want to win." I know we all want to win but maybe that is weighing on his conscious instead of just playing cards?Look at me, trying to give pointers to a guy who would slaughter me anyday in poker.

That is a good thought- last big tournament I played in we were down to 15 and I am doing what I usually do, being aggressive alot with the blinds being so high, and I win a race where I raise with A-K and a guy goes all in with 8-8, I call and catch a king, he is out. 2 hands later, a relatively short stack is all in, I have 6-6, I call, he has A-A and I river a 6. Now we are down to 13- NEXT HAND I get A-Q in MP and I think to myself, I should raise, but I am doing it so much and so well I don't want to overdo it- so, I fold???? WTF?? I never think like that. Flop brings 2 Q's and a J and I would have taken down a big pot against a guy holding J-10. I doubt he would have been all in but it would have been significant. The next 2 hand the same s hit happens, different cards though and within 20 minutes I am out, 11th over all- and it all started with not playing the A-Q hand. For that one hand I overanalyzed what I already know is good poker and the correct preflop play and it messed with my head so bad that I played horribly from that point on. This happens- I can tell you this though, it will never happen again.

[Loismustdie 0]

And by the way, anyone who says that they would never fold kings is not lying- but, occasionally you need to at least think about it- K-K is never an automatic call. Pretty damn close, though.

[Vegas King 0]

Where are the excuses....There has to be excuses.....Will Daniel ever make Day #2 of a big tourney ever again???There go his DVD sales. At least I bet he makes Day #2 on StackedHe is out so often so early it is not even news to those covering the events live. He does not even get a mention anymore.Doesn't matter, I am sure he had something better to do anyway for the rest of the day...and geez it is only $10K, who cares.......I bet we don't see Daniel in the Big Game any time soon, then again the stakes just aren't big enough to draw his interest I am sure.

[richgambler 0]

What alot of you dont understand is the fact that this is a TOURNAMENT situation, not a cash game.....of course you call this every time and twice on Sun. in a cash game....a tourney is a LOT different...you go broke thats it, youre out!!! I saw Johnny Chan muck KK pf at the WSOP this year.....was he playing scared?? Was he incorrect in folding??LOL....the player with AA didnt think so. Point of the story is this...DN will be fine....90% of players have AA in that spot....you guys gotta relax, his results will start to pick up again, I guarantee you.P.S. VEGAS KING, youre a complete moron....do everyone a favor and shut up, put your helmet back on, and continue banging your head against the wall.

[jlgosse 0]

I folded KK once preflop, and it was the correct decision. The player did have AA, which is what I felt. Everyone was blown away that I "Folded kings preflop!"

[richgambler 0]

bump

[crowTrobot 2]

Point of the story is this...DN will be fine....90% of players have AA in that spot....

wrong. in a big tourney it's more like <10% have AA in that spot, not 90%. whether he actually is now or not, DN has a solid reputation as a very aggressive player, and considering the size of the pot many opponents would go all-in there hoping they had the advantage and expecting a race at worst with AK or potentially *any* pair.

[Stylin_Fish 0]

Point of the story is this...DN will be fine....90% of players have AA in that spot....

wrong. in a big tourney it's more like <10% have AA in that spot, not 90%. whether he actually is now or not, DN has a solid reputation as a very aggressive player, and considering the size of the pot many opponents would go all-in there hoping they had the advantage and expecting a race at worst with AK or potentially *any* pair.

90% of people have Aces in that spot? Hardly.

[majorleag 0]

I will go broke or double up with the kings!Yeah maybe he has Aces and you lose or he sucks out on you, but you will win with the kings more often then not.

[monkeywicked 0]

Point of the story is this...DN will be fine....90% of players have AA in that spot....

wrong. in a big tourney it's more like <10% have AA in that spot, not 90%. whether he actually is now or not, DN has a solid reputation as a very aggressive player, and considering the size of the pot many opponents would go all-in there hoping they had the advantage and expecting a race at worst with AK or potentially *any* pair.

I'm curious about this myself. So: I've set up a poll in a New Topic: "Poll Related to DN'S KK Laydown." It's hardly scientific, but maybe it'll give us an inkling of who has a better sense of the situation... Check it out. Take a vote.

[monkeywicked 0]

There's quite a few factors to take into account here. 1. Stage of the tourny: early. The blinds are low, the stacks are high. There's plenty of time. I suspect that most players wouldn't want to go broke with QQ so early. This pushes the guy's hand towards KK or AA. 2. Pot-committed? No. Maybe he thought he was, but with 4K or so in the pot and the guy's stack is over 14,000 (I'm assuming he had DN covered?) he doesn't have to stick his money in. Again, this pushes the hand towards AA or KK. 3. Is he going in against clear strength? Hell yes. There is, by my count, a raise, a reraise, a reraise, and a rereraise before the guy decides to REREreraise. This, combined with 1 & 2 (there's no NEED to get crazy at this point) definitely points towards AA. 4. DN's image at the table. crowTrobot made a good point when he said that DN is a known aggressive player. Had he been raising and reraising a lot at this point? Had he taken pots off this particular guy? A yes to either of these would lower the starting hand requirement considerabley. 5. The quality of the player DN's up against. Does he seem, well, foolish? Is he macho, unwilling to be pushed around? Again, a yes to either of these makes QQ or less a definite possibility.6. Is he one of the MANY players who read somewhere (Sklansky, right?) that AK is a good hand to push all-in with? (Which it is, especially if you can get someone to laydown TT, JJ, QQ, or, heh, KK.) So where does that leave us? I'm not sure. The data on 4, 5, and 6 aren't available, but, in hindsight, we know that the guy had QQ, so that means he must have been fairly foolish/aggressive/desperate/willing to go broke in a bad spot. DN should, in theory, have picked up on this. Still, that's easy to say after the fact. My guess is that 90% AA or 90% less are both a bit off. I would say, weighing factors 1 and 3 pretty heavily (which DN clearly did), that 50% of the time he would (should!) have AA or KK. There's six ways he could have AA but only one way he could have KK so that makes it: 43% AA and 7% KK. Next, I would guess 30% of the time he would have AK (factor 6) and 20% of the time QQ or lower (factor 4 & 5). I'm too lazy to do the math, but I'm guessing that all that junk adds up to an EV pretty close to +/- zero. Maybe, considering the money in the pot, a slight edge for DN to call. However, as we all know, the pros don't like to get their money with a slight edge, they like to get it in with a big edge. That's why they're the pros. I don't think DN was thinking, "Oh my God he has aces!," he probably just thought, "Hmmmm, there's a pretty good chance he has aces. I'll wait for my set, str8s, and wicked good reads." And they never came. And, yes, he probably was thinking, "Gosh, it would be nice to see the 2nd day of a tourny..."