MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Gibby sees a fast player and therefore a leadoff hitter. Pillar is a perfect #9 hitter. In unrelated news, I think this guy is a solid late-round sleeper. He won't be Mike Trout, but I think he could be a very solid, cheap, all-around guy in roto leagues: http://www.rotoworld...45/tyler-naquin Im gonna need a few more of these Dan. AL only please! 1 Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 I have no actual information Arp and don't follow fantasy at all anymore. My "feeling" about that guy is based on almost nothing, and anything else I gave you would be similarly useless. That won't stop me though! Also, if memory serves (unlikely), he was picked a long time ago by jay or Dale in the last round of the FCBL, and I had no interest in him - those picks pretty much all turned out really well (in the same draft I took Trout, I openly mocked Dale for taking Goldschmidt two rounds later). Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 Deadspin reminded me that today is the 15th anniversary of an event that is either one of the best or worst things ever to occur in sports, and certainly one of the most ridiculous and unlikely: And an unnecessary follow-up story: http://www.newsweek.com/ornithologists-react-time-randy-johnson-hit-bird-pitch-440184 Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted March 24, 2016 Share Posted March 24, 2016 I just read way too much of that bird expert article Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Those ornithologists were pretty funny though Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 I like how two of them were like "oh, it was awful, I love mourning doves" and the third guy was like "I dgaf about the bird" Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 Looking back, I am just in awe of the incredibly poor luck that bird had. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Can scroll down to just read about the Jays if you want, but an interesting write-up on the starting rotation: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotations-16-30/ Last day's tweets suggest it'll be Stroman, Dickey, Estrada, Happ, Sanchez (not necessarily in that order). Hutchison in AAA, Chavez the long-man and Floyd the extra guy. I think Chavez could convert to a 1-inning reliever, down the road, but he may be our 5th-6th best starter so they'll keep him stretched out to fill in for injuries. Basically, the King of Stat Guys ranks the Jay's rotation as 25th best, but notes that his particular preferred ranking likely underestimates the Jays, as both Dickey and Estrada are pitchers who have shown the ability to outperform the "best" system. For Dickey, the reason is obvious - strikeouts are really important, and he doesn't get a lot even if he is pitching well. Estrada is also an outlier in that for his whole career, he has given up a much higher proportion of fly balls than most pitchers. If you squint, you can see a rotation that could push the top-10. Stroman could be awesome, Estrada, Happ and Sanchez could all be very strong, and Dickey can play soft-toss until his arm falls off. Then again, with all those question marks, we could have basically a #2 guy in Stroman, and no one else who is much better than a #5, no matter how deep you go...they could easily be one of the worst rotations in the MLB too. Only 6 more days!!! Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I always get so excited for baseball season this time of year. The Blue Jays being so good is just another bonus. Danny/others.....bet365 has BJ's at 87.5 o/u for wins. Isnt that kind of low? I trust the oddsmakers more than myself, and not crazy about the -115 on both sides, but 87.5 seems low for them, doesn't it? Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Danny, whats your general impression on fangraphs? I love it, only been really reading it for a couple of years, but I really use it a lot for my pool. Am I overvaluing the information though? Seems like a lot of info from anyone, can just about anyone post anything? Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 Basically every projections system that I've seen has the Jays below 87. If I was not a fan, and I wanted to bet, I would take the under (though I would never pay -115. Actually, I just checked two sites, and they had the Jays around 86, and wouldn't have the Sanchez info yet...so it's probably pretty close. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I actually don't read fangraphs that much, just because the stuff that they often deal with really interests me only in an academic sense and can sometimes be hard to apply specifically. Having said that, I don't think there is much argument that they are the best stat site out there. I prefer Baseball Prospectus because they're more reader-friendly (more fantasy and prospect info, fewer graphs and videos), but the Fangraphs stuff,in general is a whole other level in terms of how advanced it is. They have staff writers. I think community people can submit stuff, but unless you specifically go to the community section, you would never see it. The articles on the main page are all staff, I believe. The player pages themselves are also my go-to for getting information I actually want, like strikeout percentages, base-running and defensive information, etc. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 In the American League, according to Fangraphs, there are 8 players who are projected to provide at least +8.3 runs in defense alone. Of those 8, 4 are outfielders, two are shortstops, and two are third-basemen (including Donaldson). Of the 4 outfielders, 3 of them play for the Royals. Not going to be many doubles in the gap there! Seriously, think about 3 of the best 4 defensive outfielders in the league all together. For reference, projections are generally conservative when it comes to extreme players or small samples (Kevin Pillar is projected for only 5.9 despite hitting 16.6 last year, mostly due to small sample). So KC has THREE outfielders, who project to be better this year than Kevin Pillar (though, to be fair, not to be as good as he actually was last year). I find that pretty amazing. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/2016-defensive-visualization/ Link to post Share on other sites
Babying 613 Posted March 28, 2016 Share Posted March 28, 2016 I believe the total for the Jays should be 90 and I still think it is a low number. Looking for big things from Sanchez. Love to see a 1-2 punch Stroman and Sanchez. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 I wouldn't be shocked if they won 90, but that's also a really high number. There is so much parity in the AL this year, and really all the teams in the AL East are solid. I think the Jays would win 90 in the AL Central or West, but playing so many games against solid teams is tough to really break out. The O's aren't great, but not terrible, and the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees are all sneakily good. I'm looking forward to some Jays/Orioles games with an over/under of about 12 lol Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted March 29, 2016 Author Share Posted March 29, 2016 Who needs Donaldson when you have Leblebijian! http://m.mlb.com/tor/video/topic/26661240/v565804883/tortb-leblebijian-charges-to-make-a-barehanded-play/?c_id=tor Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Nope, sorry. I'm still celebrating getting rid of Rzepczynski Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Wow, it is one thing to see it in writing, but when I wrote the word myself (I looked it up), I just can't be convinced I didn't smash my palm on the keyboard. Two silent Z's! That is some dedication right there. From now on, call me Mrzdannzyg 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Isn't it a silent R? And the second Z modifies the C so it's hardly silent. Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 (Went to high school with a guy with that last name and he went by "Zipchinski". Not sure I've ever heard the ball player's name spoken.) Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 I stand corrected on the first Z. It is a silent R - the name is pronounced something like you suggested. The last Z may have an effect, but there sure as hell is no "z" sound, so I'm standing my ground on that one! Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted March 29, 2016 Share Posted March 29, 2016 Czech isn't the same as Cech. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted March 30, 2016 Share Posted March 30, 2016 Various 'expert' predictions: Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx - Jays at 84 wins, 5 behind the Red Sox. Baseball Prospectus: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx - Jays at 86 wins, 1 behind the Red Sox and Rays Pinnacle Sports has the following team over/unders: Jays - 86.5 (under is +101) Red Sox - 86.5 (under is +116) So basically everyone has the Red Sox as a slight favourite. Fangraphs' write-up suggests the difference is probably closer, since Estrada and Dickey are underrated by their system, and Baseball Prospectus' Rays prediction has them as basically one of the best defensive teams ever (possible, but hard to predict!). Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 Toronto Blue JaysVerified account @BlueJays Today's #OpeningDay lineup (4:05pm start) pres by @MajesticOnField, the official uniform provider for the @BlueJays Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted April 3, 2016 Share Posted April 3, 2016 That is a solid team! A bit surprised we couldn't do any better than Barney for that spot, and of course Thole is an absolute black hole. Pretty bad to use a bench spot for a special catcher just for your 4th starter, especially when he isn't even that good when he is catching him. Really like them getting Morales - having a second lefty is key. overal I think the pen won't hurt us, which is all you can ask. Pillar batting lead off is obviously just stupid and lazy. You want him getting more at bats than Bautista and Donaldson? Ok... Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now