Degenerate Gambling

[Dubey 1,035]

edit. I suck at Math, trying again below

[Dubey 1,035]

Washington is -175 to advance tonight, or implied 63%.

 

That leaves Pittsburgh with 37%.

 

Let's assume they beat Ottawa 70% of the time if they advance past Washington.

 

Total Eastern championship odds of .37*.7 = 25.9% or implied betting odds of +286. No value there unless you think the line tonight is way off and/or they would be > 70% against Ottawa.

 

Using above numbers and giving Pittsburgh a 50/50 shot in the finals should they get there, Implied to win the cup 12.95% of the time, for implied odds of +672. Again, no value unless you fiddle with the percentages.

[Dubey 1,035]

let's take the vig into account and subtract 5% from Washington's implied winning percentage and make it a 58-42 shot for tonights game.

 

That gives Pittsburgh implied odds of 29.4% or +240 to win the east. a bit of value. more or less depending how often you think they would beat Ottawa.

 

Cup odds would be +580. Still not enough to see any value there.

 

 

edit: not how vig works, sorry. Using Pinnacles current odds, it implies 60/40 for tonight's games. Moral of the story, not great bets unless you are really bullish on the Pens over Vegas odds.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

I dont give Washington a 58-42 shot for tonight, maybe thats my angle. I think its about 50-50, or 52-48 in Wash favour because of momentum+home ice, if anything.

But I haven't watched much of this series at all, so maybe Im missing something.

 

Also, I give Pitt or Wash a 80% shot vs Ottawa. And then I would favour them over anyone in the West.

 

So, I really think tonights Pit v Was is for the Cup in some ways. Now that i say that, I see how wrong I probably am.

[Dubey 1,035]

I didn't watch much of the series to be honest, but my impression from my small corner of hockey nerd twitter is that Washington has carried the play for most of the series, but didn't get the bounces/ Fluery outplayed Holtby at the start of the series, but the tide has been turning.

 

Ignoring any recency bias, I think 50/50 or 52/48 is a little generous to Pittsburgh. It's the best team in the regular season by a sizable margin at home in a 1 game playoff. You'd have to assign a lot of intangible value to the Pens past playoff success to overcome the 2-3% home ice edge just to get to 50/50.

 

I could definitely get behind a > 70% chance of beating Ottawa though (Sorry Duane)

[gruven 530]

I didn't watch much of the series to be honest, but my impression from my small corner of hockey nerd twitter is that Washington has carried the play for most of the series, but didn't get the bounces/ Fluery outplayed Holtby at the start of the series, but the tide has been turning.

 

Ignoring any recency bias, I think 50/50 or 52/48 is a little generous to Pittsburgh. It's the best team in the regular season by a sizable margin at home in a 1 game playoff. You'd have to assign a lot of intangible value to the Pens past playoff success to overcome the 2-3% home ice edge just to get to 50/50.

 

I could definitely get behind a > 70% chance of beating Ottawa though (Sorry Duane)

rooting bias aside, I think that the pens are 50/50 tonight. Washington HAS carried the play for large portions. And that's because Pitt has yet to play anything close to their best game. They scraped by without letang, but Daley out (and he's not playing tonight despite questions that he may be) they have struggled in their own end and it's hurt their puck possssion time. That being said, they recognized, and addressed it pretty thoroughly at practice. If the change in game,planning is successful, they can definitely do some damage to Washington who also has an inferior d corp. Crosby and Malkin both underperformed in game 6, as did almost the entire team to be fair. I don't think that pair turns in back to back poor showings. And the HBK reunion is over. That was a failure. When Malkin was back w kessel and Kunitz in the third, they generated all kinds of chances.

Kuznetsov has been a difference maker, which is huge out of your third line centre. Holtby has been decent but by no means a wall. The pens haven't generated any quality scoring chances for long stretches, and they've made it to easy on him. If they turn that around, different game. But that turnaround has to start in Pitts end.

All things considered, the pens won't be as bad as they were in game six. Which, in my mind makes it very close. Pitt is great in crucial games on the road, something like five and oh in the past few years.

So im my mind it's a very close spot.

I agree with dubey on the cup final odds. No value really there. And I think Pitt OR Washington would be a seventy to eight percent favourite in the conference final. So the odds are close, but I think there's a slight edge in the Pitt conference bet.

[mrdannyg 274]

Unpopular statement: futures bets once the playoffs start are almost always bad money. There may be some value at the beginning of a season, but even that's a stretch. Once the playoffs start, you're pretty much guaranteed to be better off making series bets (or better yet, individual games!) than for the whole playoffs

[gruven 530]

Unpopular statement: futures bets once the playoffs start are almost always bad money. There may be some value at the beginning of a season, but even that's a stretch. Once the playoffs start, you're pretty much guaranteed to be better off making series bets (or better yet, individual games!) than for the whole playoffs

agreed 100%. Even when there's an option dee it's slight.

[Zach6668 513]

Kuznetsov has been a difference maker, which is huge out of your third line centre.

 

Kuzy is definitely the 2nd line centre, but I agree. He was terrifying in this series, every time he touched the puck. Less so today, though. He'd be the first line centre on most NHL teams, just happens to have a top...5? centre ahead of him.

[gruven 530]

 

 

Kuzy is definitely the 2nd line centre, but I agree. He was terrifying in this series, every time he touched the puck. Less so today, though. He'd be the first line centre on most NHL teams, just happens to have a top...5? centre ahead of him.

yeah I was going by minutes in this series and eller was getting lots w the matchup. But yes.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

let's take the vig into account and subtract 5% from Washington's implied winning percentage and make it a 58-42 shot for tonights game.

 

That gives Pittsburgh implied odds of 29.4% or +240 to win the east. a bit of value. more or less depending how often you think they would beat Ottawa.

 

Cup odds would be +580. Still not enough to see any value there.

 

 

edit: not how vig works, sorry. Using Pinnacles current odds, it implies 60/40 for tonight's games. Moral of the story, not great bets unless you are really bullish on the Pens over Vegas odds.

 

Dubey or anyone else.....help me understand the math here where if we think Pitt was about +240 to win the conf, it would be +580 for the Cup. I dont get it.

 

I dont mean in terms of Pittsburgh, I mean, tell me how the calculation is done, because why am I to assume if they are +240 to win the conference, its +580 to win it all. They wouldnt be such an underdog in the final, why the huge jump, is it because of some calculation to be added on from the other series?

 

If Pitt won or lost I would have asked this, but I am now wondering why they were +140 to win last nights game, and +550 to win the cup, but today, they are only +175 to win the Cup.

[Dubey 1,035]

I'm having a tough time getting my head around the math to be honest. But it is early and I haven't had my coffee(s) yet. I usually use an odds converter:

 

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/odds-converter/

 

 

+240 implies a 29% chance

 

+550 implies a 15% chance

 

+175 implies a 36% chance

 

Lotta money must have come in on Pitt overnight or the oddsmakers really liked what they saw in game 7. I hope you ignored my post and made those bets

[bigguyren68 155]

Dubey or anyone else.....help me understand the math here where if we think Pitt was about +240 to win the conf, it would be +580 for the Cup. I dont get it.

 

I dont mean in terms of Pittsburgh, I mean, tell me how the calculation is done, because why am I to assume if they are +240 to win the conference, its +580 to win it all. They wouldnt be such an underdog in the final, why the huge jump, is it because of some calculation to be added on from the other series?

 

If Pitt won or lost I would have asked this, but I am now wondering why they were +140 to win last nights game, and +550 to win the cup, but today, they are only +175 to win the Cup.

 

I might not be entirely correct, but this is my take on the math.

 

Pittsburgh to win last night was +140 which is approx 40% chance, They are saying that to beat Ottawa, Pittsburgh was -260 (72% chance),

 

So for Pittsburgh to win the conference before last night odds were (40%X74%) 29% or +240

 

Assuming west/east final was 50/50

Before last night to win Stanley cup, odds were (40%X74%x50%) 15% or +550

 

Now that Pittsburgh has won, odd to beat Ottawa are still -260(72% chance)

To win cup odds are 72%X50% = 36% or +175

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

That makes sense, except the finals. I guess I thought Pitt was better than 50-50 vs anyone in the West.

 

I screwed up, I bet big on the conference, and smaller on the cup. I should have taken it in reverse maybe, but who knows.

see, where the math fails is me, if I think they are a good bet for the conference at +250, doesnt +550 for the Cup mean a no-brainer, since I get such a great price on them in the finals, where I expect them to be a favourite? I guess thats my biggest issue with this.

Thanks guys, I enjoyed this math lesson, I wish I was better with the odds calculations.

 

Last round, I bet on 3 series. Nash-STL had started, so I was too late, so I bet on Pit, Ott and Edm. I took them single bet, I did a parlay on all 3, and a 2*parlay on all the combos. Edmonton winning last night would have been huge, I should have hedged probably but was too busy/lazy. Also, I made the mistake of making my biggest bet on Edm to win, bad call. Took away a lot of my profit on the other series. Honestly, the bets were just placed to give me something to care about, as I rehab my shoulder at home. Nothing thats going to affect me one way or another.

[gruven 530]

That makes sense, except the finals. I guess I thought Pitt was better than 50-50 vs anyone in the West.

 

I screwed up, I bet big on the conference, and smaller on the cup. I should have taken it in reverse maybe, but who knows.

see, where the math fails is me, if I think they are a good bet for the conference at +250, doesnt +550 for the Cup mean a no-brainer, since I get such a great price on them in the finals, where I expect them to be a favourite? I guess thats my biggest issue with this.

Thanks guys, I enjoyed this math lesson, I wish I was better with the odds calculations.

 

Last round, I bet on 3 series. Nash-STL had started, so I was too late, so I bet on Pit, Ott and Edm. I took them single bet, I did a parlay on all 3, and a 2*parlay on all the combos. Edmonton winning last night would have been huge, I should have hedged probably but was too busy/lazy. Also, I made the mistake of making my biggest bet on Edm to win, bad call. Took away a lot of my profit on the other series. Honestly, the bets were just placed to give me something to care about, as I rehab my shoulder at home. Nothing thats going to affect me one way or another.

how is the shoulder, Arp? What did you have done and who did it?

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

how is the shoulder, Arp? What did you have done and who did it?

 

nothing yet, just physio at this point. just doing the usual rehab exercises at home, trying to strengthen the shoulder as much as possible, and even getting some help from a trainer, friend of a friend, to help strengthen,

I have a referral in to https://www.theshouldercentre.ca/

My physio doc says they are very good with shoulder surgeries and the guys to go to. I meant to text you and ask again who your surgeon was, curious by any chance if it was these guys. I was told any of Gallay/Lobo/Jason Smith are good, so whoever takes me Ill go in for a consult and see whats what.

I wasnt overly impressed with the surgeon my hospital sent me to, figured try these guys.

[gruven 530]

 

 

nothing yet, just physio at this point. just doing the usual rehab exercises at home, trying to strengthen the shoulder as much as possible, and even getting some help from a trainer, friend of a friend, to help strengthen,

I have a referral in to https://www.theshouldercentre.ca/

My physio doc says they are very good with shoulder surgeries and the guys to go to. I meant to text you and ask again who your surgeon was, curious by any chance if it was these guys. I was told any of Gallay/Lobo/Jason Smith are good, so whoever takes me Ill go in for a consult and see whats what.

I wasnt overly impressed with the surgeon my hospital sent me to, figured try these guys.

zarnett did mine. He was leafs/Argos orthopaedic guy. Specialist in shoulders and knees. Did my shoulder and my knee. Both great jobs. I have heard of the shoulder clinic as well, good things.

[gruven 530]

I'm in five hockey pools and I'm a lock to win 4 And a pretty heavy fave to win the 5th.

I would like o thank the Nashville predators and Pittsburgh Penguins.

[Babying 613]

Golden State is down by 14 and live betting they are -135

[Babying 613]

Golden State is down by 14 and live betting they are -135

 

Not sure what they were when they were down 25 but I grab them late in the 3rd +6.5.

[mrdannyg 274]

Golden State is down by 14 and live betting they are -135

 

Wait what? Who are they playing? Seems like way too deep in the playoffs for the discrepancy to be that big - what was the pregame line?

[Babying 613]

 

 

Wait what? Who are they playing? Seems like way too deep in the playoffs for the discrepancy to be that big - what was the pregame line?

 

Huh they are playing the spurs

 

Golden state was -10. They won by 2

[GOCUBSGO 77]

Bink. Wish I bet more though

[Zach6668 513]

Wow

[Babying 613]

Bink. Wish I bet more though

 

Nice wager. But they were 200-1 in the 3rd quarter?