Biatch's Barbershop (spring Edition)

[Ottawa_Biatch 288]

I think it's smarter to take multiple seperate bets rather then parlay bets. Yes, you can win more, but it's so hard to get them all right. I dunno, I just think it's a donkey bet. The only time, I think there might be value is two huge favourites but betting ml not the spread, but even with that, you wouldn't be getting much value.

[mrdannyg 274]

I think it's smarter to take multiple seperate bets rather then parlay bets. Yes, you can win more, but it's so hard to get them all right. I dunno, I just think it's a donkey bet. The only time, I think there might be value is two huge favourites but betting ml not the spread, but even with that, you wouldn't be getting much value.

I understand how you feel, and that you aren't betting as a profession. From a math perspective, that is incorrect. Parlaying bets increases variance - which means you are more likely to undergo swings. That is intuitive - if you parlay, you'll win less often, but win more when you do.The key is - long-term it does not change results. However, long-term you are probably a losing bettor. We all are, if we're paying -110. So you want to encourage swings, since it increases the likelihood that you'll win. It also increases the chances that you will lose, compared to your long-run loss. So...lose a lot.From a casual bettor's perspective, it doesn't matter. From a math perspective, you want to parlay, unless you think you can beat a -110 long-term.

[Zach6668 513]

Don't they take extra juice or something on parlays? There's no way it's just a single variance increase with the same EV, is it?

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

I'm not sure Im following this conversation properly, but are you suggesting that parlays are better bets long term than single game betting? I dont know the math behind it, but the generally accepted feeling is that parlays are indeed the sucker bet. There's a reason why the Ontario provincial sportsbook (oops, sorry, lottery!) offers only parlays, and no single betting.

[mrdannyg 274]

Don't they take extra juice or something on parlays? There's no way it's just a single variance increase with the same EV, is it?

In my very limited betting experience, there is no extra juice.They will not let you parlay bets that are overly correlated though. For instance I can bet the Leafs and the Under, but books with multiple offerings won't let me parlay, say Leafs Under 6.5 with Leafs Under 5.5.

I'm not sure Im following this conversation properly, but are you suggesting that parlays are better bets long term than single game betting? I dont know the math behind it, but the generally accepted feeling is that parlays are indeed the sucker bet. There's a reason why the Ontario provincial sportsbook (oops, sorry, lottery!) offers only parlays, and no single betting.

No, I'm saying they are the same long-term...just takes longer to get to the long-term.I believe the reason Pro-line requires parlays is because betting sometimes takes place on 'old' odds. i.e. information comes about that an online sportsbook would change the odds, but Pro-line doesn't or can't. They make up for this by giving terrible odds, but likely also by requiring parlays, which makes it harder to take advantage of any errors.

[Zach6668 513]

Pro-Line can't be compared here.They give awful odds on parlays. If they offered single game bets, I'm sure they'd take 40% juice on those too, and I guess the EV would be the same, if that's what Danny is saying. The parlay makes them more able to hide the juice than if they had two evenly matched teams on a single game bet and both were paying -140, lol.I guess parlays are like running it twice in poker. EV remains the same, but running it twice reduces variance. Well, kinda opposite but similar to this, I guess.

[mrdannyg 274]

Pro-Line can't be compared here.They give awful odds on parlays. If they offered single game bets, I'm sure they'd take 40% juice on those too, and I guess the EV would be the same, if that's what Danny is saying. The parlay makes them more able to hide the juice than if they had two evenly matched teams on a single game bet and both were paying -140, lol.I guess parlays are like running it twice in poker. EV remains the same, but running it twice reduces variance. Well, kinda opposite but similar to this, I guess.

Exactly.So, is High Stakes Poker season 5 worth watching, or not as good as the first couple?

[Zach6668 513]

Exactly.So, is High Stakes Poker season 5 worth watching, or not as good as the first couple?

I heard it was good, but I don't watch poker.

[serge 904]

Exactly.So, is High Stakes Poker season 5 worth watching, or not as good as the first couple?

i think its entertaining..Pretty standard how bad some of the play is....Dwan runs like god and draws out every hand it seems..And Ivey reads your souls, soul even..Daniel is better this year, but even by his own admission he is outclassed at times...

[Ottawa_Biatch 288]

I dunno, I still think parlays are sucker bets, so yes that makes me a sucker

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

I dunno, I still think parlays are sucker bets, so yes that makes me a sucker

me too.And I watch HSP fairly often, and I think this is a pretty decent season. Im getting a little tired of the same old, but not enough to stop watching.

[Ottawa_Biatch 288]

me too.And I watch HSP fairly often, and I think this is a pretty decent season. Im getting a little tired of the same old, but not enough to stop watching.

you and I are like a bookmark.We're always on the same page

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

you and I are like a bookmark.We're always on the same page

this makes me happy.ps- I am strongly considering throwing all my devotion over to the ASDFJKL in the finals for the FCHL championships.

[Ottawa_Biatch 288]

That would complete me

[serge 904]

That would complete me

please start a ticker thread so we can follow and cheer you on.

[Ottawa_Biatch 288]

Will do, starts sat

[wsox8 10]

Exactly.So, is High Stakes Poker season 5 worth watching, or not as good as the first couple?

it would be a lot better if it wasn't just Gabe in the booth talking to himself. It's awkward

[serge 904]

it would be a lot better if it wasn't just Gabe in the booth talking to himself. It's awkward

i totally agree...While i wasnt a huge fan of AJ, you need a straight man in the booth to bounce off his jokes from..His analysis is pretty good though.

[Ottawa_Biatch 288]

Bet 19Risk $30Tennessee (moneyline) +180 over Ohio St.

[Ottawa_Biatch 288]

So I lost my parlay (because it was a flucking donkey bet), but won my moneyline bet, so I actually made about $20. Here is the kicker tho......Ohio St. was up during part of the 2nd half by like 10, and I knew my over/under bet was screwed, so I went on tilt. And figured I had to make back my $130 tonight, so I went on tilt, yes tilt. Tilt is when you act like a flucking idiot. And I put a huge bet in that I totally regret, and now find myself sweating a stupid match. Because if I knew I would have won the moneyline bet, I would have never placed this bet. Yes, I know it is a flucking stupid bet, but here it is.....Bet 20Risk $600 (-400) to win $150Canada to beat GermanyWomens CurlingGame time: TSN 10pm EST. FLUCK ME

[serge 904]

So I lost my parlay (because it was a flucking donkey bet), but won my moneyline bet, so I actually made about $20. Here is the kicker tho......Ohio St. was up during part of the 2nd half by like 10, and I knew my over/under bet was screwed, so I went on tilt. And figured I had to make back my $130 tonight, so I went on tilt, yes tilt. Tilt is when you act like a flucking idiot. And I put a huge bet in that I totally regret, and now find myself sweating a stupid match. Because if I knew I would have won the moneyline bet, I would have never placed this bet. Yes, I know it is a flucking stupid bet, but here it is.....Bet 20Risk $600 (-400) to win $150Canada to beat GermanyWomens CurlingGame time: TSN 10pm EST. FLUCK ME

Thats more like it...$500 bets and over..FTW

[Zach6668 513]

Well, I know what I'll be watching tonight, lol.

[mrdannyg 274]

Well, I know what I'll be watching tonight, lol.

2nded. Since you picked a game I can watch, you get all my karma. Which is a lot, since I don't really gamble anymore, and I'm an awesome person, I have lots of extra karma. Plus, I've been really outgoingly nice to people who deserved it this week...I'm putting that karma towards a Germany loss.I have a plan. We all put in, say $20. Then Biatch bets it however the hell he wants. The only stipulation is that the game has to be televised or available on adthe. We each get a share, and we can pull out the share whenever we want.So...10 people put in $20. Anytime they want, they can pull out 1/10. Hell, we could've even go more. Say, sell a share for $20...people can buy as many as they want, buy in and out whenever.Obviously, ridiculous tilt bets would be encouraged.

[troyomac 0]

I love Dan because he is one crazy ass biatch!

[Ottawa_Biatch 288]

2nded. Since you picked a game I can watch, you get all my karma. Which is a lot, since I don't really gamble anymore, and I'm an awesome person, I have lots of extra karma. Plus, I've been really outgoingly nice to people who deserved it this week...I'm putting that karma towards a Germany loss.I have a plan. We all put in, say $20. Then Biatch bets it however the hell he wants. The only stipulation is that the game has to be televised or available on adthe. We each get a share, and we can pull out the share whenever we want.So...10 people put in $20. Anytime they want, they can pull out 1/10. Hell, we could've even go more. Say, sell a share for $20...people can buy as many as they want, buy in and out whenever.Obviously, ridiculous tilt bets would be encouraged.

I like the idea, but I'm against it. I just think it'll be too much of a headache. There's no way Canada should be -400 in this game imo, they should be more like -300 or -200. The Germans are pretty good.