Big Draw In Position

[gary21212121 0]

It seems pretty straight-forward to me, but maybe that's because it's my question. If I bet the flop, I'm trading the whole value of the check-behind scenario for the whole value of the bet scenario. It seems to me that before making that decision on the flop I should have some intuition about how much those two things are worth.The checking behind scenario is obviously worth something more than the size of the stack, $24.71. A quarter of the time I have the nuts on the turn, so $24.71 + 1/4 ($2.25) = $24.71 + $0.56 = $25.27. I think it would be extremely foolish to let someone buy the hand for this value or less. We're not going to get blown off this hand on the turn very often, so I think it's fair to account for a dollar of pure pot equity.The real question begins when we start putting a value on the possible action for the rest of the hand. How much do you think you can make on this hand in position with money left to play and this draw? The arguments for betting thus far don't seem to assess any value to this. I.e., if we bet, get check-raised and coin flip, we haven't lost anything. Well, we have lost something. And we're balancing this something against an upside of earning a $1.25 by value betting or by winning the pot outright. You may want to argue that the real best-case scenario is double-barrelling the turn and winning the pot uncontested, but I don't see competent villains flat calling this flop that often.It doesn't make sense to me for people to be sure they should bet but unable to quantify what they're risking. You'd all check behind if the pot were 0, right? Personally, I'd set the value of the check-behind hand and stack at about $29.50.

I think the problem is that you believe that everyone is going to play every street perfect.

[BaseJester 1]

I think the problem is that you believe that everyone is going to play every street perfect.

What gives you that idea? I expect the out-of-position villain to play less than perfectly on the turn and river. That's a big reason why I want to play the turn and river.

[fighter 4]

Your assumptions in your post is. 1. your playing "good players". 2. That C/R is more likely then C/C 3. That this hand is in a vacuum If you going to be checking as your default when you have a nut draw in a multiway pot, Then you are going to be very easy to play against. If your arguement to that is "they are bad players at 25nl, they wont adjust" THEN WHY ARE YOU CHECKING. Give them a chance to be BAD. I hate commenting in your threads. Seems like you already know the answer. Then you pick the most cryptic way to get around to your point. Quoting your own post that was a round about way of showing off some maths based on bad assumptions. How DIDN'T we GET THAT.

[BaseJester 1]

Your assumptions in your post is. 1. your playing "good players". 2. That C/R is more likely then C/C 3. That this hand is in a vacuum .

I didn't intend to assume those things independently. The competent players check/raise more than they check/call, imho. The incompetent player might call a flop bet with J4 or something, but I haven't really gained much when he does. I want to play lots of streets with incompetent villains after I have them crushed.

If you going to be checking as your default when you have a nut draw in a multiway pot, . . .

And the pot is small compared to the stacks. And I'm in position.

Then you are going to be very easy to play against. If your arguement to that is "they are bad players at 25nl, they wont adjust" THEN WHY ARE YOU CHECKING. Give them a chance to be BAD.

I think balancing a range by betting the flop is legitimate. In fact I posted that.

I hate commenting in your threads. Seems like you already know the answer. Then you pick the most cryptic way to get around to your point. Quoting your own post that was a round about way of showing off some maths based on bad assumptions. How DIDN'T we GET THAT.

I thought that math was tedious and obvious, so I tried to skip it. Sorry.

[Ninja Ace 1]

The whole idea that checking behind is only good for "good opponents" is crazy... in fact, if everyone in the pot is a solid player that's a bigger argument to bet.Bad players are calling with hands that are on the better side of the flipBad players don't think much about what you're "repping" so there's no need to disguise your hand to get paid off.Also, Jester makes a fantastic point about not betting if the pot was 0... because honestly with the remaining stacks and number of players, that's pretty much what I see.

[babylondonks 5]

I love that every topic in strat comes down to the OP posting a hand they already know the answer to and (just about) every other person proving them wrong

[Ninja Ace 1]

I love that every topic in strat comes down to the OP posting a hand they already know the answer to and (just about) every other person proving them wrong

You do realize that Matt was the only one to give any sort of insite besides"LUZ U HAS A COMBO DRAW WTF ARE YOU DOESING NOT BETTING?"

[mtdesmoines 3]

1. I have heard a lot that players tend to reveal the strength of their hand with their turn bet. 2. Honestly, I think our flush is very transparent here if we heat up action on this turn card. 3. We have tremendous equity on the flop, and villains can justify defending that flop with much weaker holdings (EDIT: than they can on that turn card). 4. Why are we not pressuring the flop, rather than the turn when we make our hand?

1. The thing is, checking here is OK on certain occasions for balance and deception purposes, but I probably wouldn't pick this exact spot to do it.4. I think a check is a more reasonable option if there are fewer people in the pot as opposed to more people because I think that with more people, your hand has such an immense edge because you can often get 1 or 2 callers by betting the flop and you can often get played back at by inferior draws enabling you to get a lot of money in as a pretty substantial favorite. And of course when 2 people come along, you're often putting in only 33% of the money and might have as much as 50% equity, which is a great situation for us.3. If there's one person in the pot, you can bet, you can check, you can do whatever you want. With 3 other opponents, you should be betting because you have so much equity in the pot and your bet conveys an enormous amount of strength since you are betting into 3 opponents on such a dangerous board. If you get 2 calls, you can choose to barrel or take your free card on the turn, depending on what you think their ranges are and how sticky they're going to be.2. The other thing to consider is that our draw is very obvious. If a T rolls off, obviously we get paid by anyone with a Q, but anyone without a Q is hating life. If a spade rolls off, that's really obvious as well. By betting the flop we make it easier to get paid off if we hit because people can misread our hands whereas if the turn is a T or a spade and we start putting in lots of money after checking back the flop, what else can we really have other than a big hand?

You do realize that Matt was the only one to give any sort of insite besides"LUZ U HAS A COMBO DRAW WTF ARE YOU DOESING NOT BETTING?"

[trystero 0]

I think of Jester as a Socratic figure...it's a change of pace.

[I<3ComboDraws 0]

You do realize that Matt was the only one to give any sort of insite besides"LUZ U HAS A COMBO DRAW WTF ARE YOU DOESING NOT BETTING?"

R U STUPID??WE HAS BIG DRAW. BET BET BET BET BET BET BETY IS DAT SO HARD 2 UNDURRSTAND???

[mtdesmoines 3]

I think of Jester as a Socratic figure...it's a change of pace.

Aware of it or not, socratic method has had tremendous influence on his personality.

[babylondonks 5]

Lemme throw a few different concepts at you from a hand I played:#Scenario 1:Your converted hand, now with more cowbell.Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.50/$1 - 6 playersUTG: $100.00 UTG+1: $116.60 CO: $116.50 Button: $149.60 (Hero)SB: $74.95 BB: $324.20 Preflop: ($1.50) Hero is Button with (6 players)3 folds, Hero raises to $3, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2Flop: ($9.00) (3 players)SB checks, BB bets $6, Hero calls $6, SB foldsTurn: ($21.00) (2 players)BB bets $15, Hero calls $15River: ($51.00) (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $32, BB foldsScenario #2Your converted hand, now with more cowbell.Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.50/$1 - 6 playersUTG: $100.00 UTG+1: $116.60 CO: $116.50 Button: $149.60 (Hero)SB: $74.95 BB: $324.20 Preflop: ($1.50) Hero is Button with (6 players)3 folds, Hero raises to $3, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2Flop: ($9.00) (3 players)SB checks, BB bets $6, Hero calls $6, SB foldsTurn: ($21.00) (2 players)BB bets $15, Hero raises to $42, BB foldsScenario #3Converted by the cows of Feral Cow PokerFull Tilt No-Limit Hold'em $0.50/$1 - 6 playersUTG: $100.00 UTG+1: $116.60 CO: $116.50 Button: $149.60 (Hero)SB: $74.95 BB: $324.20 Preflop: ($1.50) Hero is Button with (6 players)3 folds, Hero raises to $3, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2Flop: ($9.00) (3 players)SB checks, BB bets $6, Hero raises to $18, SB folds, BB raises to $62, Hero raises to $146.60, and is all in, BB calls $84.60Turn: ($302.20) (2 players)River: ($302.20) (2 players)Hero showed , and won ($299.20) with a straight, Jack highBB showed , and lost with two pair, Nines and EightsHero won $299.20(Rake: $3)Does this mean anything? Who cares, it's a barely concealed brag post

[Stupidhead 2]

But that's not even 4 handed!!3 handed it's a clear bet.

[BaseJester 1]

Does this mean anything? Who cares, it's a barely concealed brag post

Maybe it means that stack depth is a factor in strategy.

[Ninja Ace 1]

But that's not even 4 handed!!3 handed it's a clear bet.

You forgot as the preflop aggressor and getting action from only the blinds flatting you... totally different dynamicEspecially when you consider that there are midrange cards on this board which is totally different than a broadway heavy boardand, might I add, there is a donk bet, which totally makes this pot worth trying to pick up now

[babylondonks 5]

You guys fell for my tarp, we're actually a 48/52 dog to 79s here

[Ninja Ace 1]

You guys fell for my tarp, we're actually a 48/52 dog to 79s here

Gah, I forgotz... always focus on results... sheeeet

[SuperJon 175]

You guys fell for my tarp, we're actually a 48/52 dog to 79s here

I just found it weird that you played 3 hands with the exact same boards, and everyone had the same stack size.Pretty crazy.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I love that every topic in strat comes down to the OP posting a hand they already know the answer to and (just about) every other person proving them wrong

I think there are merits to discussing why a check can be a reasonable choice in certain spots like this, but your default should be to bet your multiway nut draws in a 4 way pot IMO.I came in and half agreed with the idea of checking back just not in this spot, but he still seemed to want to pick apart most of my post, which is fine. I'm not right or wrong here, it's a matter of opinions in this spot and nobody's going to prove anything one way or another and I think that people who try and prove or talk in absolutes in spots like this are just wasting their time along with everyone else's.I do agree 100% that posting a thread where you already think your answer is best/right is a BIG mistake because if it wasn't a question, why did you start a thread for it if not to try and show people how smart you think you are?

[Acid_Knight 2]

If we can double-barrel and win a larger pot on the turn even on a brick, that seems like worthwhile money. But we could be check/raised on either street and then our profitable situation evaporates into a mere gamble. I don't like taking the free card so much, because of your concern about a transparent draw. And it's much more transparent when we bet the flop and check the turn than it is if we check and call.

If we get c/r, the problem is a math problem, not a gamble. On the flop it's always going to be a call and on the turn, depending on stacks and what card rolls off and how many callers etc, it's going to go one way or another.As for taking the free card, if you think your opponent has JT and you can probably barrel him, go ahead. If you get 2 or even 3 callers, then you're probably not folding them all out with a bet, so I'd take a free card. Just make some reads during the hand.

[Acid_Knight 2]

TBH I ignore this rule a lot... LOLif you change that to "playing a big street" where there are raises, reraises, and what have you... I definitely follow the rule... but often times I get myself in spots where I've barrelled twice in a three bet pot... don't have much stack left... and have a hand with some kind of equity where it becomes correct/slightly incorrect to stack off

This isn't what I mean.Basically, when you're going to play a big pot and there are going to be multiple bets going in (this is almost always referring to the flop FWIW) then you want to make sure that you are going to be crushing your opponent or flipping. Don't be the one getting it in for stacks with AA on 974ss in a single raised pot because your opponent will usually be the one crushing you with a set/2 pair or flipping, when he has a big draw. You're on the wrong end of that deal. That's not to say that you shouldn't get it in with AA on 974ss vs a lot of guys, but if you're playing a big pot, make sure you're not the one getting your money in badly because the larger the pot, the larger the mistake you're making when you stack off incorrectly. In that spot, you want to be the one with 2 pair or a set (crushing) or the one with the combo draw (flipping) so that your opponent cannot really show you a hand that's going to make the situation too unprofitable for you.Barreling off really has nothing to do with that concept that I mentioned.

[Ninja Ace 1]

This isn't what I mean.Basically, when you're going to play a big pot and there are going to be multiple bets going in (this is almost always referring to the flop FWIW) then you want to make sure that you are going to be crushing your opponent or flipping. Don't be the one getting it in for stacks with AA on 974ss in a single raised pot because your opponent will usually be the one crushing you with a set/2 pair or flipping, when he has a big draw. You're on the wrong end of that deal. That's not to say that you shouldn't get it in with AA on 974ss vs a lot of guys, but if you're playing a big pot, make sure you're not the one getting your money in badly because the larger the pot, the larger the mistake you're making when you stack off incorrectly. In that spot, you want to be the one with 2 pair or a set (crushing) or the one with the combo draw (flipping) so that your opponent cannot really show you a hand that's going to make the situation too unprofitable for you.Barreling off really has nothing to do with that concept that I mentioned.

That's what I thought u meant I just read it wrong ... which is why i said play a big street, etc

[BaseJester 1]

If we can double-barrel and win a larger pot on the turn even on a brick, that seems like worthwhile money. But we could be check/raised on either street and then our profitable situation evaporates into a mere gamble.

If we get c/r, the problem is a math problem, not a gamble.

If a villain check/raises the turn after we double barrel, then I suspect we're going to be priced into a call for pot odds. If we're not priced in, then our profitable situation (with implied odds on the river) evaporates into a fold itself.We're not really showing a profit on the turn in either case. The math problem usually tells us we should gamble.

[BaseJester 1]

I do agree 100% that posting a thread where you already think your answer is best/right is a BIG mistake because if it wasn't a question, why did you start a thread for it if not to try and show people how smart you think you are?

There are some things I want on input for, but we're stuck at places in the discussion I didn't expect to be stuck. Instead of trying to determine how much value to assign the implied action, I'm defending the very notion of implied odds. Instead of trying to determine if I overestimated the chance of a check-raise, I'm defending the notion that a check-raise is not the best result for us. Responses from people who won't quantify or even consider the possibility of these opportunity costs aren't useful to me or anybody else. I have the impression that people are going through their mental Rolodexes, finding the card on "more than nine outs", and transcribing their answer here, with the hopes that I will gratefully transcribe this response into my Rolodex for future transcription. In short, I don't think people are showing their work.

[Ninja Ace 1]

There are some things I want on input for, but we're stuck at places in the discussion I didn't expect to be stuck. Instead of trying to determine how much value to assign the implied action, I'm defending the very notion of implied odds. Instead of trying to determine if I overestimated the chance of a check-raise, I'm defending the notion that a check-raise is not the best result for us. Responses from people who won't quantify or even consider the possibility of these opportunity costs aren't useful to me or anybody else. I have the impression that people are going through their mental Rolodexes, finding the card on "more than nine outs", and transcribing their answer here, with the hopes that I will gratefully transcribe this response into my Rolodex for future transcription. In short, I don't think people are showing their work.

What you're finding here is not entirely uncommon Jester... it's been pretty much a pattern through the development of holdem.At first it was all about playing tight preflop and gassing it with TPTK+ no matter what. This is because that's what the books said and they were the source of information from the top players so it obviously had to be the only right answer and the game was "solved"Then came along a few internet players who had built a name and built sites like 2P2, DC, or CR. They were some of the few that thought outside of the box and sought to challenge themselves. They then made the genius move of selling their information for profit. Each time the new information provided was determined "right" and the game "solved." To most players holdem is a played like a bunch of flash cards and there are no actual decisions because there's always one "right" decision.FWIW I don't think every poster here who posted something about betting the flop acts this way, but it is an extremely common theme throughout the masses.