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Super Bowl Squares Ii


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OK sent $20 for 2 squares. Aceplayer01(anytown usa)..Hello AcePlayer01,We have transferred $20.00 from your account to 'king1305' as per your request.Good luck to you both.Regards,PokerStars Cashier
oh ok.Hello king1305,We have transferred $20.00 to your account as requested by 'AcePlayer01'.Good luck to you both.Regards,PokerStars Cashier
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shipping 10$ on PS and $10 on Tilt as well.count me in for 2.Stars name is KingOfDaClubTilt name is CodyHartman

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shipping 10$ on PS and $10 on Tilt as well.count me in for 2.Stars name is KingOfDaClubTilt name is CodyHartman
This is an automated message sent from Full Tilt Poker. Your Player ID: King1305 From Player ID: CodyHartman Date and Time: 2009-01-30 21:29:40 Transfer Number: 02C63B56 Amount: $10.00 Status: APPROVEDThis transfer has been approved. The funds are now available in your account.Thank you for playing at Full Tilt PokerHello king1305,We have transferred $10.00 to your account as requested by 'KingOfDaClub'.Good luck to you both.Regards,PokerStars Cashier
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Just shipped $10 from my Stars and Tilt account to you.Oh I see you were right on top of it.Any thoughts to doing it the way Jeepster suggested???

Super Bowl SquaresThis is a re-run of a post I ran a year ago:Three Super Bowls ago, I wrote this post over at Sabernomics. In it, I looked at your probability of winning a squares pool with any given square. For example, I found that in a one-unit-per-square pool, either of the ‘0/7′ squares would have an expected value of about 3.8 units. Compare that with, say, a ‘5/6′ square, which has an expected value of 0.22, or the lowly `2/2′ square and its expected value of .04. Because it was all the data I had at the time, I only considered the last digits of the final scores of games, but someone correctly pointed out in the comments that most pools also give prizes for (the last digits of) the cumulative scores at the end of each quarter.Well, now I have score-by-quarter data for the entirety of the NFL’s 2-point-conversion era (1994–present), so it’s time for an update.I’m sure there are lots of ways to do this, but a bit of googling indicates that a standard payout structure is something like 10% of the pot after each of the first three quarters, and 70% for the final. This doesn’t alter things too drastically, but it does have a couple of effects. * The ‘0/7′ squares enjoy an even larger advantage over an average square. The ‘0/7′ squares have an expected value of about 4.9 under this scheme. * The ‘0/0′ square starts climbing the charts.More than 20% of all games are in a ‘0/0′ situation (remember, that includes 10-0 and 10-10 as well as 0-0) after one quarter. At halftime, about 7.5% of all games are a ‘0/0.’ So the more weight you put on the intermediate stages, the better the ‘0/0′ square looks. Here is a chart that shows the expected value of a given square after each quarter, along with a final column that shows the expected value under a 10/10/10/70 system:+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| | | q1ev | q2ev | q3ev | q4ev | ev |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+| 7 | 0 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 4.9 || 0 | 0 | 20.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 4.5 || 3 | 0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.1 || 7 | 7 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 || 7 | 4 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 || 7 | 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 || 4 | 0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 || 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 || 3 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 || 4 | 3 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 || 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 || 6 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 || 4 | 4 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 || 6 | 3 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 || 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 || 7 | 6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 || 3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 || 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 || 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 || 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 || 9 | 7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 || 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 || 9 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 9 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 8 | 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 || 5 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 || 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 || 9 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 7 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 || 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 || 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 || 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 2 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 || 9 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 || 9 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 || 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 || 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 || 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 || 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 || 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 || 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 8 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 || 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 || 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 9 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 || 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 9 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 9 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 || 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |+-----+-----+------+------+------+------+------+Here’s how to read that. Take the top line for example. If you have one of the two ‘0/7′ squares, then your expected value is 11.8% of the first-quarter pot, 5.6% of the second-quarter pot, and so on. With the 10/10/10/70 system, your overall expected value would be about 4.9.As I was poking around the web looking for info on standard payout schemes for these kinds of pools, I came across this page. One of the commenters there suggests using not the final digit of each team’s score, but the final digit of the sum of each team’s score. So a 17 would be an 8, a 22 would be a 4, and a 38 would be a 1.I was too lazy to check this one out quarter-by-quarter, but just looking at final scores, this scheme produces a much flatter expected value curve....
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If you want Jeepster way, run one. I'm not doin it.Goin out now, will confirm later.
You probably love winner take all tournaments too!Whatever....I sent my money anyway. So I'm in.
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2 squares please shipped from Pokerstars $20.00

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you could change yours up with jeepster's idea: total of the digits of the score first (ie 17-12 becomes square 8-3). i'm pretty sure he is correct that it flattens the probabilities.

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you could change yours up with jeepster's idea: total of the digits of the score first (ie 17-12 becomes square 8-3). i'm pretty sure he is correct that it flattens the probabilities.
The whole fun of football squares is just having everything be random. Random number assignment and random name pulling. Last number used it pretty standard for these things. No need to change it. If we don't do last digit plays I think I'll be pulling out of this little shindig.
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The whole fun of football squares is just having everything be random. Random number assignment and random name pulling. Last number used it pretty standard for these things. No need to change it. If we don't do last digit plays I think I'll be pulling out of this little shindig.
It's still totally random, but it solves the problem of there only being like 5 or 6 good squares out of 100.
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you could change yours up with jeepster's idea: total of the digits of the score first (ie 17-12 becomes square 8-3). i'm pretty sure he is correct that it flattens the probabilities.
King has made a decision on this and I agree with him if you want it done different run your own pool.
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Care to take it outside?
Bring your hat and gloves!!For the record, I'm not saying I disagree with your thoughts, just that you aren't qualified to give them. :club: lol.Edit: I'm drunk and elitist!
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