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Under Pair Vs All In On The Flop


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Full Tilt PokerNo Limit Holdem TournamentBlinds: t50/t1005 playersConverterStack sizes:Hero: t3020CO: t1525Button: t2165SB: t4320BB: t2470Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 9 :4h 9 :DHero raises to t300, CO folds, Button calls t300 (pot was t450), 2 folds.Flop: J :club: 5 :ts T :D (t750, 2 players)Hero bets t400, Button raises all-in t1865, Hero?What should I have done?

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You don't say anything about how active you've been, how active he's been, what your image is, what you've shown down, what buyin level this tournament was, what recent action there might have been that might have affected play, etc. However, even without knowing any of that sort of stuff, this is probably a ch/fold instead of a cbet. You're going to get shoved on a lot by most players (maybe this guy, maybe not, but most) by a bunch of J/Ts, all two pair or better, tricky overpairs, and all combinations of draws (someof which you are ahead, some not). You're just going to get shoved on way too often by semibluffs and made hands to c-bet here profitably under most conditions.Once you do bet, you have to fold. You are ahead occasionally, but against all his possible hands, as I said, you still don't have a good enough price to call.

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It really depends on the read I have on the villain. If he's a nut, I'd be tempted to call here. If I have a loose image and have been c-betting a lot, I'd be tempted to call here. Most of the time though with 2 overs on the board, I'm letting this go seeing as you still have 20+bb and are in no real danger yet. It's not really shove-bot time so I give him credit here, even though he could be on a draw.

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5 handed, I only raise preflop here to 250-270. Then make a small bet on the flop of about 300, or just check/fold. Once you do bet, however; you can't possibly call this. Even if he has a draw, most likely it is with 1, if not 2, overcards and you are racing at best. No sense in spewing off an extra 1400 chips you don't need to.

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With the stacks this short and 2 overs on a drawy board, why are we betting the flop?I'm not saying you shouldn't... I'm saying that if we bet this flop with these stacks, there needs to be a reason and a gameplan for it.

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I'm conflicted here. Here is my thought process.I don't mind b/f for $400, but then I think c/c may be better because we don't get bluffed off by a draw as often, and we gain more from bluffs and underpairs. Then when I think more about c/c I realise we are going to have to play OOP on later streets which is nigh on impossible to do profitably, so c/f is probably best to just avoid the mess. The problem with that is I think it's unlikely to be checked down all the way and we will lose a pot that we could have won with a bet. So I come back to bet/fold, which should win the pot some reasonable % of the time.Overall I think b/f is probably slightly better than c/f, but not by much.

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