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Double Or Nothing Sit N Gos On Ps?!


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I think the only way you lose in those Double or Nothings is if you run into a better set or aces vs kings or something. I cash on about 90% of them by just playing nit poker.

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I wanted to post this hand, because I think it illustrates a basic tactical mistake people make on the bubbles of these. It's 6 handed. I have a largish stack. There is a tiny stack ( 900) that is about to be in the blinds. I make a min raise with 33, and my thinking is this.. I will put pressure on the small stacks, preventing them from being able to push-steal, but also investing the minimum if one of the big stacks decides to repush, and I have a nice hand to bust a big stack if they decide to lose their mind and slow play a big pair. Then, the other small stack, 1400, over pushes with Ace queen. Listen, guys, I know Ace queen is a monster, but this micro stack is about to bust, and you know that I'm going to call your push 100 percent of the time, as calling your push doesn't really hurt my tournament position that greatly. Ace queen is a garbage hand in that spot. Even if you're in a dominating position, you now have a 30 percent chance of getting nothing, and the small stack is doing a happy dance. And you weren't in a dominating position this time. This is a play you make in a real tournament, where chip accumulation means something. But with a really tight stack dwindling down, you're better off saving your 1400 chips for a situation that your push is going to have a 80 percent or higher success rate. You don't need a good hand to push in these things, because people are really unwilling to call. And you need a MONSTER hand to call pushes with ( or push when you know you're going to be called) particularly if you're not the smallest stack, or conversely a really big stack. This seems like such an obvious error for ace queen here..Table '115798740 1' 10-max Seat #10 is the buttonSeat 1: Mervosch (4390 in chips) Seat 5: kedge10 (3120 in chips) Seat 7: rickypapro (925 in chips) Seat 8: BigDMcGee (3406 in chips) Seat 9: Plato79 (1744 in chips) Seat 10: kosjol (1415 in chips) Mervosch: posts the ante 20kedge10: posts the ante 20rickypapro: posts the ante 20BigDMcGee: posts the ante 20Plato79: posts the ante 20kosjol: posts the ante 20Mervosch: posts small blind 100kedge10: posts big blind 200*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to BigDMcGee [3d 3c]rickypapro: folds BigDMcGee: raises 200 to 400Plato79: folds kosjol: raises 995 to 1395 and is all-inMervosch: folds kedge10: folds BigDMcGee: calls 995*** FLOP *** [6s 9d Kc]*** TURN *** [6s 9d Kc] [5h]*** RIVER *** [6s 9d Kc 5h] [4h]*** SHOW DOWN ***BigDMcGee: shows [3d 3c] (a pair of Threes)kosjol: shows [As Qd] (high card Ace)BigDMcGee collected 3210 from pot*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 3210 | Rake 0 Board [6s 9d Kc 5h 4h]Seat 1: Mervosch (small blind) folded before FlopSeat 5: kedge10 (big blind) folded before FlopSeat 7: rickypapro folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 8: BigDMcGee showed [3d 3c] and won (3210) with a pair of ThreesSeat 9: Plato79 folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 10: kosjol (button) showed [As Qd] and lost with high card Ace

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I'm not sure you should be playing 33 here.
Well, I disagree. With a mirco stack about to hit the big blind, no one should want to get involved with me, so my raise should have an extremely large success rate. If any of the other stacks push, I fold, and I have essentially the same stack as I did before.
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I dunno, if you lose that race with 33, you're pretty likely to cash, whereas if you just fold, you're almost guarenteed to cash. I'd rather just either open-fold here, or fold to the short stack's push (surely he has to have a bigger pair in this spot nearly all the time?)

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I dunno, if you lose that race with 33, you're pretty likely to cash, whereas if you just fold, you're almost guarenteed to cash. I'd rather just either open-fold here, or fold to the short stack's push (surely he has to have a bigger pair in this spot nearly all the time?)
No, I don't think that's true. I've seen him put himself at risk in the tourney for no reason calling with A4 and AK. Yes, he very well likely could have a bigger pair, but I think he's extremely likely to have overcards. And I don't believe losing that pot is going to hurt me that badly. I think there's a strong case for folding pre, but I thought there was going to be about a 95 percent chance it was going to get folded around to my raise, and I wanted to take the initiative away from the short stacks, keeping them broke by stealing before they steal. That said, he had about as big of stack as I would be willing to call, and perhaps I should have folded instead of limping.
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No, I don't think that's true. I've seen him put himself at risk in the tourney for no reason calling with A4 and AK. Yes, he very well likely could have a bigger pair, but I think he's extremely likely to have overcards. And I don't believe losing that pot is going to hurt me that badly. I think there's a strong case for folding pre, but I thought there was going to be about a 95 percent chance it was going to get folded around to my raise, and I wanted to take the initiative away from the short stacks, keeping them broke by stealing before they steal. That said, he had about as big of stack as I would be willing to call, and perhaps I should have folded instead of limping.
Even more reason for you to not play it, but I don't know how to win coin flips so I try not to play them. I just don't see why you should be playing any hands at this point, it's going to take a miracle for you not to cash, where if you lose the hand and ricky doubles up, you and plato are the shortstacks fighting it out.Not arguing, just how I play it.
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Even more reason for you to not play it, but I don't know how to win coin flips so I try not to play them. I just don't see why you should be playing any hands at this point, it's going to take a miracle for you not to cash, where if you lose the hand and ricky doubles up, you and plato are the shortstacks fighting it out.Not arguing, just how I play it.
No, I'll still have 2000, plato will have 1700, and ricky will be in the big blind posting 200 with 700 left. My situation if I lose isn't dire at all.
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No, I'll still have 2000, plato will have 1700, and ricky will be in the big blind posting 200 with 700 left. My situation if I lose isn't dire at all.
That's why I don't think you should play it. Once you have 3400 and 4 shorter stacks this late, I don't want to get in a possible flip for more than 40% of my stack when I can just fold to the win. Many more things have to go wrong for you to not cash by folding, where only a couple things have to go wrong for you not to cash if you lose over 40% of your stack here.
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That's why I don't think you should play it. Once you have 3400 and 4 shorter stacks this late, I don't want to get in a possible flip for more than 40% of my stack when I can just fold to the win. Many more things have to go wrong for you to not cash by folding, where only a couple things have to go wrong for you not to cash if you lose over 40% of your stack here.
yeah, and I see that, but I also think, because of the utg's stack size, people should have been even more inclined to fold. Like that AQ. He never should have gotten involved when that stack is about to hit the blind. Him pushing in was pretty much my worst case scenerio, as I would have folded to anyone else's push.
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I think the only way you lose in those Double or Nothings is if you run into a better set or aces vs kings or something. I cash on about 90% of them by just playing nit poker.
90 % ?Wow.... that's pretty awesome
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I think the only way you lose in those Double or Nothings is if you run into a better set or aces vs kings or something. I cash on about 90% of them by just playing nit poker.
Must be nice to run like a god.Not saying youre just getting lucky. Im just saying......you're running like a god. Shit will slow down, just wait.
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Am i the only one who thinks this call is just.....atrocious(sp?)On the bubble, 75/150 blinds. Im in the BB with AJ. I only had 1300 to start the hand. The SB had 1500 to start. We are the 2 short stacks.Folds to him he calls. I shove, he calls with 55.I lose.....maybe im just upset that I lost but is his call there not terrible?? Two other stacks were between like 1800-2000 so either of them *could* have gone out. But to call off 85-90% with a small pair like that on the bubble?? Is that bad or am I wrong there? And is my AJ shove standard in that spot?

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Am i the only one who thinks this call is just.....atrocious(sp?)On the bubble, 75/150 blinds. Im in the BB with AJ. I only had 1300 to start the hand. The SB had 1500 to start. We are the 2 short stacks.Folds to him he calls. I shove, he calls with 55.I lose.....maybe im just upset that I lost but is his call there not terrible?? Two other stacks were between like 1800-2000 so either of them *could* have gone out. But to call off 85-90% with a small pair like that on the bubble?? Is that bad or am I wrong there? And is my AJ shove standard in that spot?
IPITS, If I was the SB I would probably just shove on you with the pair in the blind vs. blind situation. You can't be afraid to put your money in with these spots as much as it hurts when you bubble. You can't gamble that the 1800 to 2000 stacks will mess up for you, at the lower limits people are extremely nitty, probably similar for you.
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I don't think calling here in this guys spot can be considered to be even remotely ok, and extremely shocked when his hand flipped up I mean WTF? I figure with the short stack most likely soon to hit the rail after this hand I can pretty much fold to the $ of course then he calls. Couldn't even hit an out after the flop where I was still a 51.21% favorite. 3-2 now*********** # 1 **************PokerStars Game #21412488371: Tournament #115822836, $5.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2008/10/22 19:04:42 ETTable '115822836 1' 10-max Seat #7 is the buttonSeat 1: valentinkuzo (2835 in chips) Seat 2: chef95 (2935 in chips) Seat 3: BrianBox (3910 in chips) Seat 5: wahnfried888 (1640 in chips) Seat 6: alwayserins (505 in chips) Seat 7: squig808 (1530 in chips) Seat 10: rvrchsrhtr (1645 in chips) valentinkuzo: posts the ante 20chef95: posts the ante 20BrianBox: posts the ante 20wahnfried888: posts the ante 20alwayserins: posts the ante 20squig808: posts the ante 20rvrchsrhtr: posts the ante 20rvrchsrhtr: posts small blind 100valentinkuzo: posts big blind 200*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to rvrchsrhtr [Jc Ad]chef95: folds BrianBox: folds wahnfried888: folds alwayserins: folds squig808: folds rvrchsrhtr: raises 1425 to 1625 and is all-invalentinkuzo: calls 1425*** FLOP *** [8d 2d Kd]*** TURN *** [8d 2d Kd] [4h]*** RIVER *** [8d 2d Kd 4h] [Ks]*** SHOW DOWN ***rvrchsrhtr: shows [Jc Ad] (a pair of Kings)valentinkuzo: shows [8s Tc] (two pair, Kings and Eights)valentinkuzo collected 3390 from pot*** SUMMARY ***Total pot 3390 | Rake 0 Board [8d 2d Kd 4h Ks]Seat 1: valentinkuzo (big blind) showed [8s Tc] and won (3390) with two pair, Kings and EightsSeat 2: chef95 folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 3: BrianBox folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 5: wahnfried888 folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 6: alwayserins folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 7: squig808 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)Seat 10: rvrchsrhtr (small blind) showed [Jc Ad] and lost with a pair of Kings

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rvrchsrhtr: raises 1425 to 1625 and is all-invalentinkuzo: calls 1425*** FLOP *** [8d 2d Kd]*** TURN *** [8d 2d Kd] [4h]*** RIVER *** [8d 2d Kd 4h] [Ks]*** SHOW DOWN ***rvrchsrhtr: shows [Jc Ad] (a pair of Kings)valentinkuzo: shows [8s Tc] (two pair, Kings and Eights)valentinkuzo collected 3390 from pot
There are some crazy bad calls in these things. Yesterday, a player called off all his chips on the bubble with JTo in the big blind. He wasn't the short stack. Of course he turned his 10 to cripple me, and I bubbled. Now all I need to do is play 10,000 more sng's against the same guy to collect on his -ev decision.
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92-73 since Monday.Running at 7.2% ROI at the $10.40s.I'm finally getting the hang of these things, but I've had like 2 sessions of running reeeeeally good and like 4 or 5 of running reeeeeeally bad, so hopefully that evens out. Not sucking out as much as people are sucking out on me, but I guess that means I'm getting my money in good for the most part. And I know... BBFIDTS....

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What we need is for people to complete a large enough sample of these things and then compare them to a large sample of regular SnGs to determine whether they're actually worthwhile. I would predict that over a large enough sample the ROIs would basically even out.

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