Ncaa Football- Week 1

[Tactical Bear 3]

How much is that?

1 less than 4x-6x?I lean Baylor SUPER hard tonight. I'm sure I'll be banging that shit real hard.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Baylor +12.5 -104 (2x)Baylor +11 +100 (2x)Stanford +3 (-109) 2x

[Tactical Bear 3]

I added 2x more to the Stanford play, in the form of:Stanford +3 -108 (2x)So, tonight's NCAA action:Stanford +3 -108.5 (4x)Baylor +12.5 -104 (2x)Baylor +11 +100 (2x)Stanford catching 3 makes me sick. They'll lose by 17

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

I just heard a radio "picks" expert on the Steve Czaben show, take Stanford.. just so you know.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I just heard a radio "picks" expert on the Steve Czaben show, take Stanford.. just so you know.

Luckily I got my bet in before the line can move!All sarcasm aside, Oregon State won 9 games last year, but they lost their entire front 7. Stanford brings a lot of important pieces back. None of that will help me when Oregon bursts out to a 3TD lead. I should have just saved myself some money and played the ML.

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

1 less than 4x-6x?I lean Baylor SUPER hard tonight. I'm sure I'll be banging that shit real hard.

I meant how much was the Hilton contest, but I found my answer. Any interest on allowing someone to buy some of your action on that if you enter?

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

Hey Wang just making sure you know the rule changes this year:-NFL play clock, 40 secs from the end of last play-after a play out of bounds the clock starts when ball is spottedThey're trying to shorten games a little bit. Not sure if it makes any difference, but whatever.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

Baylor +12.5 -104 (2x)Baylor +11 +100 (2x)Stanford +3 (-109) 2x

Looking ugly on the Baylor game but still alive in the Stan... looks like it might be time to double down on Western Michigan.

[HollywoodAFD 0]

I added 2x more to the Stanford play, in the form of:Stanford +3 -108 (2x)So, tonight's NCAA action:Stanford +3 -108.5 (4x)Baylor +12.5 -104 (2x)Baylor +11 +100 (2x)Stanford catching 3 makes me sick. They'll lose by 17

Wow... I thought Baylor would do better also.

[CobaltBlue 662]

UL Monroe +26.5 over Auburn ( 1 unit)

I know that the contrarian play is ULM here over a popular Auburn, but Auburn pretty regularly destroys these teams by that margin...it's the non-cupcakes that we have to nailbite every time.Bodog's at +14.5 on WM now.

[powerpoker 0]

By not having a computer at home at the moment i couldnt give you my stellar 1-2 start to the season today... ...Tomorrow i have both favorite temple -7 although i will probably buy it down to 6.5 and rice -3.5. Since i bet in a sportsbook 99% of games will be -110, including both of these. Saturday i should have a decent slate of games as well...if i get time ill type them up tomorrow at work.Temple/Army- First off temple is returning all 22 starters this year, only team in 1-A to do that. Last year they had a great year allbeit 4-8, they won 4x as many games as the year before that. Army has a new coach and they are going to be using the option which is new for them. Usually when a team changes its offense that they have been using for years it will take sometime to get use to. I expect a few TO's outta army here. Now temple is not a scoring machiene by any means although they did set high's in a few offensive categories last year. There defense improved as well last year finishing 3rd in the MAC in yards allowed, 2nd against the rush, fourth against the pass, and 5th in points allowed. With everyone returning i dont see them getting any worse. I hate laying this many pts on the road with temple but i dont see army scoring very many points at all.SMU/RICE- SMU got a new coach (june jones), which means a whole new offense to learn. With only 6 returning starters on offense this could take time. Now they do get there QB and both RB's back which should speed up the learning curve but i dont believe it will before the first game. Thier defense is bad at best, two years ago they were 6th in confrence they had a worse year last year letting up over 100 more pts. Rice also has a bad D but good offence. SMU should be able to put points on the board but i feel there will be more mistakes out thier offense than rice's. Rice is returning 9 starters on an offense that scored 31.4 ppg last year. When it comes right down to it this should be a high scoring game, but im taking the home team that has more continuity on offense than the SMU.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I know that the contrarian play is ULM here over a popular Auburn, but Auburn pretty regularly destroys these teams by that margin...it's the non-cupcakes that we have to nailbite every time.

I am sure the books just forgot this when they were setting the line.

By not having a computer at home at the moment i couldnt give you my stellar 1-2 start to the season today... ...Tomorrow i have both favorite temple -7 although i will probably buy it down to 6.5 and rice -3.5. Since i bet in a sportsbook 99% of games will be -110, including both of these. Saturday i should have a decent slate of games as well...if i get time ill type them up tomorrow at work.Temple/Army- First off temple is returning all 22 starters this year, only team in 1-A to do that. Last year they had a great year allbeit 4-8, they won 4x as many games as the year before that. Army has a new coach and they are going to be using the option which is new for them. Usually when a team changes its offense that they have been using for years it will take sometime to get use to. I expect a few TO's outta army here. Now temple is not a scoring machiene by any means although they did set high's in a few offensive categories last year. There defense improved as well last year finishing 3rd in the MAC in yards allowed, 2nd against the rush, fourth against the pass, and 5th in points allowed. With everyone returning i dont see them getting any worse. I hate laying this many pts on the road with temple but i dont see army scoring very many points at all.SMU/RICE- SMU got a new coach (june jones), which means a whole new offense to learn. With only 6 returning starters on offense this could take time. Now they do get there QB and both RB's back which should speed up the learning curve but i dont believe it will before the first game. Thier defense is bad at best, two years ago they were 6th in confrence they had a worse year last year letting up over 100 more pts. Rice also has a bad D but good offence. SMU should be able to put points on the board but i feel there will be more mistakes out thier offense than rice's. Rice is returning 9 starters on an offense that scored 31.4 ppg last year. When it comes right down to it this should be a high scoring game, but im taking the home team that has more continuity on offense than the SMU.

I leaned Temple when I saw that line -- Oh my God Temple is laying a touchdown on the road nobody will TOUCH that -- but from what I've seen they're getting a ton of action. I'll probably pass this game, and drop a big bomb on:SMU +3.5. I haven't put it in yet, but I'm almost positive I'll be on June Jones here. I have reasons apart from the consensus data, but it'd just be a distraction from my basic reasoning: trust the books.I had such a shitty day yesterday. I took a lossi n the Green Bay/Tennessee game that had me near catatonic, and the Baylor game was just making me sick. Thankfully Stanford made me look like a genius.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Lean hard SMU tonight. Trying to find it at good juice.I will post if it gets picked up anywhere.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Okay:June Jones +3.5 +102 (4x)Passed the over. Rice will win 45-30 now.

[CobaltBlue 662]

I am sure the books just forgot this when they were setting the line.

I realized that it might make me sound silly or a homer. I'm just saying that having attended ~50 Auburn games over the past 8 years, that's the trend that I've seen.Granted, I've always felt that it's kind of silly to suggest that CFB team stats from one decade should be in the same discussion as today's CFB team stats. I feel like in CFB, the sample sizes are so tiny, and there's such potential for luck. That's one of the reasons that I really like baseball actually.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Alright, I'm going to put these in tomorrow, or late tonight depending, but this is what my card is going to be. I'm leaving off the juice for now, since I don't know exactly what prices I'm going to get it at. I'll edit the juice in later, if I can. This is comprehensive, and includes all plays I put in previously. Western +14 (4)Bowling Green +13 (4)Kent St. +10 (4)USC/Vagina under 43 (3)

I know that the contrarian play is ULM here over a popular Auburn, but Auburn pretty regularly destroys these teams by that margin...it's the non-cupcakes that we have to nailbite every time.

UL Monroe +26.5 (4)After tonight, including baseball, NFLx, and NCAAF, my bankroll is going to be about 20% smaller than it was Thursday afternoon. You know what would be awesome? If SMU could tackle. This is the second fucking night in a row I've ended up on a JV team.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Adding:Michigan -3 (.5x)Michigan/Utah under 40.5 (.5x) These are purely action. I will be watching the game with friends, and am manufacturing a more-intense rooting interest to keep me from doing anything stupid.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

Adding:Michigan -3 (.5x)Michigan/Utah under 40.5 (.5x) These are purely action. I will be watching the game with friends, and am manufacturing a more-intense rooting interest to keep me from doing anything stupid.

I think you're on the wrong side of the michigan game, but I can't argue with betting on your team, as long as you do it responsibly.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I think you're on the wrong side of the michigan game, but I can't argue with betting on your team, as long as you do it responsibly.

I am definitely on the wrong side of this game, but Utah and ECU are the two trendy upset picks this week. I think my position is helped considerably by all the uncertainty floating around about Michigan during the offseason. It may have hurt their value more than is warranted. I don't think there is a very legit play on Utah. I probably have negative value, but I'm betting this game at 1/8 the size of my usual bets, so I'll deal. It'll save me money in the long run, because I'd tilt really bad if all my friend bet UM and I didn't have any money on the game. The under, here, is a very legit play, but I don't want to get carried away betting on UM games.

[powerpoker 0]

I am definitely on the wrong side of this game, but Utah and ECU are the two trendy upset picks this week. I think my position is helped considerably by all the uncertainty floating around about Michigan during the offseason. It may have hurt their value more than is warranted. I don't think there is a very legit play on Utah. I probably have negative value, but I'm betting this game at 1/8 the size of my usual bets, so I'll deal. It'll save me money in the long run, because I'd tilt really bad if all my friend bet UM and I didn't have any money on the game. The under, here, is a very legit play, but I don't want to get carried away betting on UM games.

i agree with the under in the UM game although i dont think ill get to the window with it, betting unders in the low 40's or maybe high 30's by gametime, scares the hell outta me. I am on ECU though, i just dont see how either team is going to move the ball that great so ill take the points at home.

[powerpoker 0]

I have 8 plays on the saturday card.Memphis +8- New coaches on Mississippi means new offensive schemes, which should take time to adjust to, to become efficient. Memphis is returing 9 starters on defensive which should help hold down the rebels attack on offense. This is a rivalry game but more so for memphis than for miss. Game should stay close all the way though, maybe an upset here as well.Wyoming -11 - Ohio is in a rebuilding year which we all know should mean by the middle to end of the year you might find vaule with the bobcats but not here. 1st game of the year is tough when you in rebuilding mode and should be even tougher with the loss of Kalvin McCrae (last years star RB). Wyoming returns the entire offensive line which means they should easily dominate the line of scrimmage and be able to run all over ohio. TCU -6.5 - TCU has owned new mexico over the last few years and i dont think this game should change that. First off TCU is going to be great on D, they seem to be every year and this year should be no different. They get thier star running back Aaron Brown back after being out last year with injuries. New Mexico only has 1 starter back on the O-line which should only help TCU put pressure on the qb all day. Great D vs. a new o line = TCU cover.Oklahoma State -7 (will buy down to 6.5)- This will be a quick one. Wash State has virtually no talent at all. They have multiple injuries to starters and backups alike. This is a complete rebuilding year for them. OK state ranked top 10 nationally in total offense and Wash state was one of the worst last year in the pac-10 at stopping both the pass and the run. Simply put 1 team can score the other cant.ECU +9 - Both defenses should be able to hold the other teams offense in check for most of the game. V-tech finally settled on sean glennon as thier starter which is great for backing the other team. They lost thier top 4 recievers from last year so i have no clue how this team is going to score points unless they all come off TO's and special teams plays (which is my only worry). ECU lost chris johnson which is a big blow to thier offense yet they still should have more continuity on O then V-tech. The under is also a play i like here (44.5) but i dont think im getting to the window with it. Mich St./Cal over 55.5 - Cal struggled against the run late last season and i dont think they should do all that great against a massive O-line from Mich st. who should be able to pound the rock with Ringer who is prob a top 5 running back in the country. Cal always puts up points averaging something like 30 ppg over the last few years. Mich st. lost thier best d-lineman so thier pass rush should suffer a little this year. Bascially both offenses strengths are going against thier opponents weaknesses.Arizona -27 - Arz has thier qb back and thier top 4 recivers back and they are in thier second year running the spread and running the spread offense against a weak idaho squad shoudl amount to massive points for arizona. Idaho lost thier best d-back and even with him they allowed an almost 70% completion rate (insane). If arz gets on them early which they should it should kill any chance of idaho coming back since thier best off. weapon is thier rb and that wont help in the passing game. Arz should be able to name the score, just need to fade the backdoor cover.Florida Atlantic +23.5 (buy up to 24)- This team, FAU that is has some explosiveness on offense and tx pass defense has to replace some secondary starters from a year ago. Texas should be able to move the ball against a smaller defense of the owls to put up some points of thier own. Im hoping this game is about at the 2 td mark going into the 4th quarter and if not i am looking for a late backdoor cover.YTD 3-2All games are -110 except for 2 which i will buy .5 pts making them -120

[Tactical Bear 3]

It only costs you a dime to buy from 7 to 6.5?

[powerpoker 0]

It only costs you a dime to buy from 7 to 6.5?

yep...buyin a half pt either way...only number you cant buy onto or off of is 3...at least at the book i use

[Tactical Bear 3]

yep...buyin a half pt either way...only number you cant buy onto or off of is 3...at least at the book i use

You should probably do it every time, then. That half-point is probably worth about 11-12 pts. of juice. If you can go from -7 -110 to -6.5 -120, you're getting the best of that trade. Most places it costs a little extra to buy onto or off of seven. This ECU game is giving me angina. I have ECU in a pretty important NCAA picks pool, and, for the third day in a row, it appears I have to put my faith in a JV team. This really should be at least 24-7, Va Tech.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I meant how much was the Hilton contest, but I found my answer. Any interest on allowing someone to buy some of your action on that if you enter?

Hey, I just saw this. I think next year, if I'm still managing money for my friends, I might make money out of the fund. I was thinking about buying half myself, and then half from the fund, or something like that. If I have a good NFL season, and it looks like I could compete at that level, I might solicit contributions from some of you clowns. You're first on the list to buy a share, Poopy.