Ncaa Football- Week 1

[Tactical Bear 3]

2008 to date 0-0 +0.00xGot this little beauty picked up on matchbook:Western Michigan +14 EV (4x)Ah, the beauty of matchbook.

[BigDMcGee 3,354]

I saw on wager line that the betting is 70-30 on Nebraska in that game, and the line has stayed solid ( and even, dear god, moved to 13.5 for a brief time). That makes me want to puke. And to bet the money line on Western Mich.

[BigDMcGee 3,354]

Is there some place you can get wagering data on the over/under? maybe you can at wagerline, but I'm just stupid, I can't seem to find what the consensuses is on o/u's

[wsox8 10]

Is there some place you can get wagering data on the over/under? maybe you can at wagerline, but I'm just stupid, I can't seem to find what the consensuses is on o/u's

http://www.wagerline.com/Handicapping/cons...ks.aspx?sport=2not sure if that was what you were looking for.

[BigDMcGee 3,354]

http://www.wagerline.com/Handicapping/cons...ks.aspx?sport=2not sure if that was what you were looking for.

that was exactly what I was looking for, thanks!

[SuitedAces21 2,728]

And to bet the money line on Western Mich.

What the hell are you saying here?

[Tactical Bear 3]

What the hell are you saying here?

The line looks relatively short for a former Big 12 powerhouse supposedly about to turn the corner at home against a MAC scrub-squad. Money is flying in on Nebraska, but instead of moving that line to discourage further Nebraska action and help balance the books, the books are keeping it right at 14.It doesn't mean anything in and of itself, but it's certainly interesting.

[SuitedAces21 2,728]

The line looks relatively short for a former Big 12 powerhouse supposedly about to turn the corner at home against a MAC scrub-squad. Money is flying in on Nebraska, but instead of moving that line to discourage further Nebraska action and help balance the books, the books are keeping it right at 14.It doesn't mean anything in and of itself, but it's certainly interesting.

I thought he was saying he thinks Western Mich is going to win. But I dont sports bet very often, so I must have confused the lingo.Oh yeah, I'll be at this game. I might put a hundy spot on the Skers at -14.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I thought he was saying he thinks Western Mich is going to win. But I dont sports bet very often, so I must have confused the lingo.Oh yeah, I'll be at this game. I might put a hundy spot on the Skers at -14.

He was saying he might bet Western straight up, but it was more hyperbole than anything else. Like BigD, I am all over Western.Betting a "hundy spot" on Nebraska here is probably the worst of your options.

[SuitedAces21 2,728]

Betting a "hundy spot" on Nebraska here is probably the worst of your options.

How so?

[Tactical Bear 3]

How so?

I dunno, I've got a whole topic around here about Contrarianism and Value in the sports wagering markets. It's your money, so do whatever you want, but the public really likes Nebraska -14, and the books are not in the habit of setting short lines on popular teams. The books like Western, here.

[SuitedAces21 2,728]

I dunno, I've got a whole topic around here about Contrarianism and Value in the sports wagering markets. It's your money, so do whatever you want, but the public really likes Nebraska -14, and the books are not in the habit of setting short lines on popular teams. The books like Western, here.

Thanks. Thats what I thought you meant.Edit: I read you're OP over in the Sports gambling 201 thread. I see what you are saying and it makes good sense to me. I agree on probably every point, but specifically the idea that the Book knows more than I do and that if all the action is going on (Nebraska in this case) and they arent moving the line, they must suspect that the initial line gives them the advantage. (do I have that right?)

[BigDMcGee 3,354]

Thanks. Thats what I thought you meant.Edit: I read you're OP over in the Sports gambling 201 thread. I see what you are saying and it makes good sense to me. I agree on probably every point, but specifically the idea that the Book knows more than I do and that if all the action is going on (Nebraska in this case) and they arent moving the line, they must suspect that the initial line gives them the advantage. (do I have that right?)

Exactly. What has me nervous about the game, is how much they are pounding nebraska.. and for a while, they moved the line DOWN not up, to 13.5. That makes me want to puke. I am not actually going to bet on WM... but I'm sure as hell not going to bet on Nebraska, and makes me fear for a long season if vegas thinks that little of Nebraska. And.. well.. look at their defense last year. they have reason to.

[SuitedAces21 2,728]

Exactly. What has me nervous about the game, is how much they are pounding nebraska.. and for a while, they moved the line DOWN not up, to 13.5. That makes me want to puke. I am not actually going to bet on WM... but I'm sure as hell not going to bet on Nebraska, and makes me fear for a long season if vegas thinks that little of Nebraska. And.. well.. look at their defense last year. they have reason to.

Yes, I see now. I guess we have to hope this is one of those times that Vegas has it wrong.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Thanks. Thats what I thought you meant.Edit: I read you're OP over in the Sports gambling 201 thread. I see what you are saying and it makes good sense to me. I agree on probably every point, but specifically the idea that the Book knows more than I do and that if all the action is going on (Nebraska in this case) and they arent moving the line, they must suspect that the initial line gives them the advantage. (do I have that right?)

Yup, that's the basic gist of it. The books will sometimes move the line even when they suspect they have an edge at the initially posted number, but when they move the line the other way, it's because they REALLY like their position, and believe that they're edge is great enough to sacrifice some piece of it for more action. That being said, we also don't know if some ******* who kills the books for 250K a year is steaming the shit out of Western, popping the line briefly down to 13.5. I saw it move somewhere, so I got down at 14 while I could. It appears it was much ado about nothing, however, the MB price is holding steady at Nebraska -14 -102

[Tactical Bear 3]

Yes, I see now. I guess we have to hope this is one of those times that Vegas has it wrong.

Well, it might just be that Western loses by 11 instead of 17. Nebraska should still win comfortably. Now that I think about it, I am pretty sure I have ruined whatever chance Western may have had of covering by writing a novel about it. Go (to hell) Broncos.

[BigDMcGee 3,354]

Here are my picks.. these are fictional, I'm just seeing how I do this season, how well I've grasps contrarianism...300 unit bankroll. Western Mich +14 over Nebraska ( 2 units) ( I'd like to go even higher here, but I 'love Nebraska, and it sickens me to bet against them ,but this line is too fishy)AR State + 19..5 over Texas Am ( 1 unit)Bowling Green +13 over Pitt ( 1 units) (+1 Should have doubled down against Wannsadt. How the hell does he keep getting coaching jobs.)Kent State +10 over BC ( 2 units)UL Monroe +26.5 over Auburn ( 1 unit)Miam (oh) -4 over vandy ( 1 unit) (-1 That's what I get for taking a favorite)

[Tactical Bear 3]

Here are my picks.. these are fictional, I'm just seeing how I do this season, how well I've grasps contrarianism...300 unit bankroll. Western Mich +14 over Nebraska ( 2 units) ( I'd like to go even higher here, but I 'love Nebraska, and it sickens me to bet against them ,but this line is too fishy)AR State + 19..5 over Texas Am ( 1 unit)Bowling Green +13 over Pitt ( 1 units)Kent State +10 over BC ( 2 units)UL Monroe +26.5 over Auburn ( 1 unit)Miam (oh) -4 over vandy ( 1 unit)

300 unit bankrolls are for pussies. I'm, for all intents and purposes, using a 25 unit bankroll (not counting futures, and other long term plays) for football season this year. It should be awful. I like Kent State a lot -- I've got a little action floating around on matchbook, I think. So far, your doubles are the two games I happen to like the most. I'm going to be on SMU really hard, too, I think. I'll let you know what I think when I get my card posted tonight/tomorrow/Saturday.

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

I'll let you know what I think when I get my card posted tonight/tomorrow/Saturday.

I vote for before Saturday. Give us followers some time to get the bets in.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Here are my picks.. these are fictional, I'm just seeing how I do this season, how well I've grasps contrarianism...300 unit bankroll. Western Mich +14 over Nebraska ( 2 units) ( I'd like to go even higher here, but I 'love Nebraska, and it sickens me to bet against them ,but this line is too fishy)AR State + 19..5 over Texas Am ( 1 unit)Bowling Green +13 over Pitt ( 1 units)Kent State +10 over BC ( 2 units)UL Monroe +26.5 over Auburn ( 1 unit)Miam (oh) -4 over vandy ( 1 unit)

Oh, I meant to say this earlier:If you plan on grading yourself and keeping a record, post some juice with your lines. Just go to matchbook and use the lines you can get there. That way, you'll have a fair understanding of whether you're actually profitable or not.

I vote for before Saturday. Give us followers some time to get the bets in.

I will. Worst case scenario, I'll just put up a list of leans, in order of preference, so anybody who wants to tail will at least have a starting point. I will probably make on-the-fly adjustments on Saturdays (read: I will chase early losses with bad late-game plays), and won't always be able to post them with much/any forewarning. I'll try to keep any unposted plays out of the thread. I will complain about them, but I won't count them towards my record or anything. Western +14 and Kent St +10 are both already being played for a certainty.

[BigDMcGee 3,354]

Oh, I meant to say this earlier:If you plan on grading yourself and keeping a record, post some juice with your lines. Just go to matchbook and use the lines you can get there. That way, you'll have a fair understanding of whether you're actually profitable or not.

matchbook uses 2 percent juice, right?

[HollywoodAFD 0]

I thought he was saying he thinks Western Mich is going to win. But I dont sports bet very often, so I must have confused the lingo.Oh yeah, I'll be at this game. I might put a hundy spot on the Skers at -14.

Don't do it

[Tactical Bear 3]

matchbook uses 2 percent juice, right?

They charge a 2% commission on winning bets, but depending on the game and the line, you might get a play in at +103 or -116 before commission. It depends on what line they are offering, what line Pinny is offering, and what other numbers are out there. It's a market like any other, and the market determines the price of the wager. Wang

[Tactical Bear 3]

I have entered two picks contests now.NCAA/NFL picks contest #1- 2.5xNCAA/NFL picks contest #2- 1xSince I didn't nut up for the Hilton Superpicks, I've got at least 3-5x more to spend on contests.

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

Since I didn't nut up for the Hilton Superpicks, I've got at least 3-5x more to spend on contests.

How much is that?