Vegas Odds On Final 9 Are Out

[Randy Reed 0]

Last Year's Final Table Should Serve as Lesson to PuntersBodog has released betting odds for the final nine World Series of Poker main event players, and with a lack of any real superstar competitor among them, it’s no surprise that they directly reflect chip stacks.According to Bodog, the chip leader of the “November Nine” with 26.4 million, Dennis Phillips, and second-place Ivan Demidov, with 23.9 million, are the favorites at 3-1 to win the $9.2 million top prize.Scott Montgomery, with 19.3 million, is given odds of 4-1 to win. In February, he finished fifth in the World Poker Tour L.A. Poker Classic $10,000 championship event for $296,860, and the WSOP main event counts for his fourth cash at this year’s WSOP.Peter Eastgate, who sits with the same amount of chips at Montgomery, is 11-2 to win it. The main event is Eastgate’s third major cash.Both Ylon Schwartz and Darus Suharto also have about the same number of chips going into the final table (13 million), but Bodog is giving a nod to Schwartz, who’s getting 8-1 to win it. Suharto is getting slightly worse at 17-2. Bodog says the reason is that Schwartz is a veteran of the New York poker scene, while Suharto is an unknown. Schwartz also is a tournament poker veteran with more than 20 cashes.The bottom three players, as far as chip stacks are concerned, are Chino Rheem (10.8 million), Craig Marquis (6 million) and Kelly Kim (2.9 million), and their odds of winning in Bodog’s mind reflects the stiff challenge they face on Nov. 9.With a 40,000 chip ante and blinds at 150,000-300,000 when they return, those three fall right into the standardized definition of short-stacked. Rheem, one of the most succesful players of the final nine, is getting 19-2. Marquis is getting 10-1, and Kim is the longest shot of them all at 25-1.But looking at last year’s final table and how it shook out should be a lesson to those thinking about throwing a few shekels on their favorite players. The blinds and antes for the final table then were at the same level that they will be in November.Philip Hilm was the first player eliminated last year even though he started the table as the chip leader with 22 million. Jon Kalmar finished fifth, and he started the final table with the third-most chips (20 million).Alexander Kravchenko started the day in last place with 6.5 million and finished fourth. And Jerry Yang, the man who won it all, started with 8.4 million in chips. Less than an hour into the final table, he became chip leader by eliminating Hilm.

[Acid_Knight 2]

These numbers would seem to have been pulled out of someone's ass.

[Suited_Up 2]

Rheem = decent bet?

[kobe2odom8 14]

my money is on jerry yang

[OVERKILL 0]

my money is on jerry yang

I bet one mirrion dollrers

[mk 11]

damn i'd put money on craigmarq but 10:1 isn't very generous

[nutzbuster 7]

These numbers would seem to have been pulled out of someone's ass.

Calcul's ass?

[gfdsa146 0]

Rheem = decent bet?

Its really too bad to see Rheem to get this far only to take home 1/20th of the prize money. As soon as he busts out, his money's gonna get chopped up 51 different ways being that so many people have pieces of him.

[albasuna 0]

Its really too bad to see Rheem to get this far only to take home 1/20th of the prize money. As soon as he busts out, his money's gonna get chopped up 51 different ways being that so many people have pieces of him.

lol that sucks.

[cubsfan44 0]

Rheem = decent bet?

I agree. He's got plenty of chips to be able to play imo too.

[GrinderMJ 0]

bet craig marquis

[steve7stud 0]

Kelly Kim is a friend of mine. He is one of the nicest guys ever. Ironically, he is a super nit. So I was shocked that he made the final table. This type of success couldn't have gone to someone more deserving. He certainly has paid his dues. I hope he gets some amazing coaching and runs like God at the final table.

[r0llin_game 1]

Kelly Kim is a friend of mine. He is one of the nicest guys ever. Ironically, he is a super nit. So I was shocked that he made the final table. This type of success couldn't have gone to someone more deserving. He certainly has paid his dues. I hope he gets some amazing coaching and runs like God at the final table.

since he's a nit, are you saying don't bet him?

[steve7stud 0]

since he's a nit, are you saying don't bet him?

I'm not saying one way or another. I have no clue what will happen and what type of coaching he gets. Way too many variables. 25-1 is a good price though.

[CBass1724 1]

bet biz markie

[Randy Reed 0]

Kelly Kim is a friend of mine. He is one of the nicest guys ever. Ironically, he is a super nit. So I was shocked that he made the final table. This type of success couldn't have gone to someone more deserving. He certainly has paid his dues. I hope he gets some amazing coaching and runs like God at the final table.

Coach? I sooo want to see him shove all in the first ten hands or so! It would be funny to see him double up about 3 or 4 times and get the action started right. Great TV too haha

[Sheiky 0]

my money is on jerry yang

I would say that's a pretty bad bet if Yahoo stock prices are anything to go by

[govikes 0]

I bet one mirrion dollrers

after he waits 15 minutes with the nuts

[AmScray 355]

Philips - 26.4m -- 88bb -- 3/1 (none) 29.3Demidov - 23.9m -- 80bb -- 3/1 -- (90.9) 26.6Montgomery - 19.3m -- 64bb -- 4/1 -- (80,72.7) 16Eastgate - 19.3m-- 64bb -- 5.5/1 -- (80,72.7) 11.63Schwartz - 13m- 43bb -- 8/1 -- (67.1(2),53.7,48.8) 5.375 Suharto - 13m- 43mm -- 8.5/1 -- (67.1(2),53.7,48.8) 5.05Rheem - 10.8m- 36bb -- 9.5-1 -- (83.3(2),56.2(2),45,40.9) 3.78Marquis - 6m- 20bb -- 10-1 -- (55.5,46.5(2),31.2(2),25,22.7) 2Kim - 2.9m- 10bb -- 25-1 -- (50,27.2,23.2(2)15.6(2),12.5,11.3) 0.4L to R:Name Total Stack Number of Starting Big Blinds The Line(What percentage starting stack represents of their higher opponents starting stacks, in ascending order)A ratio comprised of the line (reduced to X/1) divided by the number of starting big blindsAverage stack- 49.77bbPlayers above mean average: 4Players below mean average: 5A few things to consider.Other than Kim, everyones stack is reasonably effectual. The 2nd shortest stack is a double-up from being dead middle of the pack. There aren't any real gross disparities, Kim aside. Even the split between stack 1 and 2 is pretty slim (10.1%). There are no Jamie Golds. As we all know, relative skill between players is something that's displayed over periods of time. In what amounts to a 9 player SnG with unequal chip stacks, skill will play a role in nominal decision making, but the outcome will pretty much be determined by the cards, barring spectacular errors. I don't think that "skill level" is nearly as much of a factor as people seem to think it is here. BB/stack ratio is. The little metric beside the ascending percentages is a simple ratio that divides the line (reduced to a X/1 ratio) by the BB's going in. This establishes a "premium" metric we can worth with, as far as how the odds contrast with everyone starting position.As best I can tell, Jews carry a 15% premium over their opponents in poker because they combine superior reasoning with a fluent command of treachery (whereas other peoples tend to be 'hedgehogs'- one or the other- either treacherous 'people readers' or "math guys"). Jews, being both, must be priced accordingly. Ylon Schwartz has the "J Factor" going on, where J = (.15 + B) and B being the baseline price. Because of this, Ylon Schwartz is the pick with most value, since the line only gave an unduly small premium to Schwartz for J factor over his opponent with an equal stack. You can ignore the J factor if you want- all that bullshit about "equality" and all, but you do so at your own peril.