Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 26, 2009 Share Posted January 26, 2009 Suns at Wizards (+4) Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 27, 2009 Share Posted January 27, 2009 Suns at Wizards (+4) You suck.Try Denver at Memphis (+5.5) tonight. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted January 28, 2009 Author Share Posted January 28, 2009 Wait until you guys start playing golf... it's deadly.I'm starting to up my golf action a little bit (mostly because of the opening price on Stewie Cink this week at the FBR Open, which was absurd) for the first time since this Martin Kaymer disaster on the last two holes of the tournament was followed a few hours later by a Sage Rosenfels sighting that led to the following:- A rage/shock induced blackout at work, which forced one of my more empathetic dealers to lead me to the breakroom so he could watch the floor for about an hour while I cried/vomitted.- A 5x tilt session at a NLHE table in Detroit- A 10x tilt session at the roulette table later (mitigated in part by some free slot play -- on which I won 2x somehow -- and loooots of free food comps)- An eventual 1 week "vacation" during which I blew off class and desperately tried not to drinkSo, if you guys want some golf action, I'll start you light. I already hammered Stewie hard enough to drop the price from the opener of 58.5-1 all the way down to about 35-1 at the greek, but I would recommend the following:Bet against JB Holmes. He was a Ryder Cup superstar, and he's really long off the tee. Plus, he's won at this course twice. Unfortunately for him, he's been fucking awful all year. I'm fading him at +juice with Bubba Watson and DJ Trahan.Bet against Mike Weir. You can do it with Ogilvie some places, which is nice, because he's significantly better than Mike Weir. Weir's been hot lately, inflating his value. I think Ogilvie's carded some good rounds, too, but most unbiased metrics have him as a significant favorite here.Anyway, sorry I haven't been around much. I'm moving and I've been in a 3-month gambling rut, so I probably don't have much to add right now. Anybody who followed me on sides and futures since the start of NCAA foots season would be break-even at best. Eliminate my futures (Baltimore, Baltimore, Baltimore, Lions, Dolphins, Oklahoma) and I'm stuck more than a third of my bankroll. If you really want some pain, take a look at Charl Schwartzel in the Dubai Desert Classic. You can still get him at +5250 to win and +1015 to top 5 at The Greek, despite my best attempt to bring that number down.Wang Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted January 30, 2009 Share Posted January 30, 2009 Bet against JB Holmes. He was a Ryder Cup superstar, and he's really long off the tee. Plus, he's won at this course twice. Unfortunately for him, he's been fucking awful all year. I'm fading him at +juice with Bubba Watson and DJ Trahan.Bet against Mike Weir. You can do it with Ogilvie some places, which is nice, because he's significantly better than Mike Weir. Weir's been hot lately, inflating his value. I think Ogilvie's carded some good rounds, too, but most unbiased metrics have him as a significant favorite here.If you really want some pain, take a look at Charl Schwartzel in the Dubai Desert Classic. You can still get him at +5250 to win and +1015 to top 5 at The Greek, despite my best attempt to bring that number down.WangI wish I could just put these in on Wednesday and then forget about them until Sunday. Schwartzel is going to give me a MegaTease in Dubai. My 3 big matchups -- Trahan and Watson against Holmes, and Ogilvie against Weir -- have small leads, and I already know Trahan is going to stay near the top of the leaderboard until the 3rd or 4th round, at which point he is going to fall off a cliff and ruin my outright, top 5, and matchup play, along with my entire weekend.I hate this crap. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted January 30, 2009 Author Share Posted January 30, 2009 I wish I could just put these in on Wednesday and then forget about them until Sunday. Schwartzel is going to give me a MegaTease in Dubai. My 3 big matchups -- Trahan and Watson against Holmes, and Ogilvie against Weir -- have small leads, and I already know Trahan is going to stay near the top of the leaderboard until the 3rd or 4th round, at which point he is going to fall off a cliff and ruin my outright, top 5, and matchup play, along with my entire weekend.I hate this crap.Trahan v. Holmes winnerWatson v. Holmes (almost assuredly a) winnerOgilvy v. Weir (almost assuredly a) winnerAll my outrights are dead (Schwartzel, Stewie, Trahan), and I don't think I'm going to have any top-5 sweats unless something crazy happens, so this was a pleasant start to golf-season. My fades blew up early and missed the cut, so my matchups all cash early, and my outrights can't tease me. Huzzah!WangPS- FYI, Holmes -- who I said has been downright dreadful this year -- went off for a 70 and a 76, the latter of which was among the very worst rounds of the tournament Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Watson v. Holmes (almost assuredly a) winnerOgilvy v. Weir (almost assuredly a) winnerShouldn't the "a's" be outside the parentheses? Link to post Share on other sites
powerpoker 0 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Hey wang i dont know if they have matchups for everyone but i would start looking to back Scott Piercey in future events. Its his first full year on tour after finishing top 5 in the money on the Nationwide tour last year. Right now he is tied for 7th in the FBR open after finishing 25th last week and 12th in Hawaii to start the year. I also know him and his caddie personally and Scott is pretty damn focused right now and is hitting pretty long off the tee. I believe either last week or the week before he lead the field in scrambling for the tourney or something like that. The only thing i think he needs some work on is his putting right now. Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 Shouldn't the "a's" be outside the parentheses?I formatted the action summaries as such:"Trahan v. Holmes WINNER"On the left side, the matchup; on the right, the grade. Matchup: winner or Matchup: loserWhen I decided to ignore the unlikely jinx possibility, and include a parenthetical hedge, "Watson v. Holmes (almost assuredly) winner" didn't read right, so I needed to include an indefinite article. For consistency, the "a" had to stay inside parentheses. In short: no.Hey wang i dont know if they have matchups for everyone but i would start looking to back Scott Piercey in future events. Its his first full year on tour after finishing top 5 in the money on the Nationwide tour last year. Right now he is tied for 7th in the FBR open after finishing 25th last week and 12th in Hawaii to start the year. I also know him and his caddie personally and Scott is pretty damn focused right now and is hitting pretty long off the tee. I believe either last week or the week before he lead the field in scrambling for the tourney or something like that. The only thing i think he needs some work on is his putting right now.Unlike, say, Anthony Kim, who played his round hung over today, obviously. I'll keep an eye on him. If Brendan Todd wins a PGA event this year, there's at least a 50/50 chance I'm on him. He's one of my Nationwide follows. You can play most guys as outrights/top fives, but I'm not posted up at 5-Dimes right now, so my matchup plays might be limited to what's offered at TheGreek, and maybe Bodog. They give me good prices on some sides, from time to time, but I try to avoid dropping money into that POS sinkhole whenever I can. Link to post Share on other sites
CindyLou 11 Posted January 31, 2009 Share Posted January 31, 2009 WangBear, have you seen this? Interesting read.........SportsInsights.com (“SIs”) believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights' quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks. The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to “fade” the public or “bet against the Public.” The Public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year's Superbowl shows the Public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Superbowl. This is an interesting departure for the Public and shows how much “value” there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of “fading” the Public points to the Steelers.Edge: Pittsburgh SteelersCurrent Betting Percentages on the Super BowlPittsburg Steelers 42%Arizona Cardinals 58%Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call “Smart Money Analysis.” This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using “betting percentages” as a standalone indicator. For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7. This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public's action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh. Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)Intangibles and Other Contrarian AnglesIn addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets. For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events. Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We'll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.”During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points. Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped. Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)Quick Analysis of Recent Superbowl ScoresSportsInsights' analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores. • 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less.We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games:• 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD. Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl. Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)OverviewSportsInsights looks for value in a variety of ways. For more information about SportsInsights.com's philosophy on sports investing, please visit our articles on Sports Investing and Value. For live odds and SIs' exclusive “betting percentages” on major U.S. sporting events, please visit Sports Betting Systems Tools Plus Betting Odds and Articles. Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the “sports marketplace” point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to “shop for the best line” because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win Championships? We'll see in a few days. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 Yeah, I saw that about 4 months ago. They offer consensus data that I use pretty regularly. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 Celtics at Sixers (+3)Sixers ML +130Whoo. Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 DOUBLE POST Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 TREBLE CLEF, NIGGGGAAAAAAAS Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 Celtics at Sixers (+3)Sixers ML +130Whoo.Yeah that line is retarded. Since I make book, I have the ability to pretty much do whatever I want with these lines, and I know my clientele just well enough to anticipate my action (note: any doubts I had about books being manipulative are slowly being erased, since the action I take from my sharper clients is always outweighed by the squares) will be almost all Celtics. I opened the game at Celtics -3 (at the time at Pinny it was -2.5 -107 [the equivalent of -114 since they use nickel splits], immediately moved it to -3.5, and then moved it to -4 an hour later).I booked the following action:2x Boston -35x Boston -3.53x Boston -4I will probably drop it back to 3.5 or 3.0 in a little bit just to entice a little more action, and because my sharps play later in the day. Here's a fun story:So yesterday I looked at the Spurs/Warriros line, and saw it was SAS-5 at Pinny. I knew, for my regulars, the only options were "Spurs" and "Pass," so I opened the line at SAS-5.5. I ended up taking about 15x action on the Spurs. Well, one of my outs was shopping SAS -4.5 -110 around gametime, and I had to go to bed early, so I thought I'd hedge some of it out to help myself sleep and give myself a full middle try.At tip-off, my personal positions were:Golden State +5.5 (+110) 15xSan Antonio -4.5 (-110) 5xI tried to sleep, but couldn't. At halftime, the Warriors were up 4, and I loaded up all of my outs to see if there was any value on the halftime lines. One of my outs had it at SAS-3.5 -104, and I really REALLY did not want to have to **** around with this game anymore, so I made an ill-advised hedge for the rest of the position so I could sleep (I had an exam in the morning).My positions were now:Golden State +5.5 (+110) 15xSan Antonio -4.5 (-110) 5xSan Antonio (3rd and 4th quarters) -3.5 (-105) 10xGolden State was blowing them out, so I put my head on my pillow and drifted off. I jolted awake in a cold sweat, checked my computer, and saw that San Antonio was completing a ridiculous comeback.OVERTIMEGolden State +5.5 (+110) (15x pending)San Antonio -4.5 (-110) (5x pending)San Antonio -3.5 3rd/4th (WINNER + 10x)Well, that's awesome. No matter what, I'm in good shape. I either break even, or the Warriors cover and I win 20x. That's a pretty hefty free-roll. Except I forgout about:Final Score: SPURS 110, WARRIORS 105Oh yeah. My initial brilliant idea to try for a middle. END RESULTSGolden State +5.5 +110 WINNER +16.5xSan Antonio -4.5 -110 WINNER +5xSan Antonio -3.5 2nd half WINNER +10x WINNER +31.5xHaha, hilarious. This experiment is going to cost me thousands in the longrun (note: DO NOT HEDGE ASSHOLES), but it's still pretty funny. Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 [accidentally hit tab and then tried to space, which made me post like 10 times] Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted February 3, 2009 Share Posted February 3, 2009 Yeah that line is retarded.WINNER +31.5x Garnett's out, not that retarded.Wow nice score.What about Denver -6 tonight. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted February 3, 2009 Author Share Posted February 3, 2009 Garnett's out, not that retarded.Wow nice score.What about Denver -6 tonight.I actually didn't know Garnett wasn't playing when I wrote that. Still seems slightly retarded, but I can understand the line intellectually, now. Celtics are getting just hammered, so even though I'd rather be betting ON the team with the injured star, I'll still probably play the Sixers. With all the money-line action the Spurs are getting, the book probably have a really big position on the Nuggets tonight, so I'm going to be on that game for sure. Again, I'd rather be playing the team on short-rest, but I'm not sure how much the average fan considers the West Coast OT game, followed by a trip to the Thin Denver Air the next night, aspect. The line actually looks just about how I expected, and I really like Denver here, so I'm a little scared, but that won't stop me from playing it. Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Celtics at Sixers (+3) What about Denver -6 tonight.Good night for contrarians in the NBA. Too bad we're getting absolutely murdered every other night. Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Good night for contrarians in the NBA. Too bad we're getting absolutely murdered every other night.I just saw that Duncan Ginobili and Parker all didn't play. I wish I would have known that going in, I would have bet my entire net worth. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 Sixers ML +130Goddamn Ray Allen. Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted February 4, 2009 Share Posted February 4, 2009 I just saw that Duncan Ginobili and Parker all didn't play. I wish I would have known that going in, I would have bet my entire net worth. http://www.sbrforum.com/Scores/NBA+Odds/119055/Side.aspxYeah, nobody knew until about 830... Link to post Share on other sites
SlapStick 0 Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Italy 6-1 to beat England in rugby on WillHill.com. Really really worth a bet. England vs Italy. Willhill has Italy at 6-1 for a victory, this is pretty shocking even if England are at home. They have been abismal of late and Italy has one of the best packs out there with their captain Parisse a world class player. They have a new fly-half coming up aswell.I think an England victory by 6-9 points but I would definitely put some money on 6-1 Italy as this is a close match and its not a big suprise if Italy win. Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted February 5, 2009 Share Posted February 5, 2009 Come on, Aaron Baddeley; blow up early. Don't even give me a sweat on the Top 10 bet. Pull a Steve Marino and get to 4 over ASAP. Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted February 11, 2009 Share Posted February 11, 2009 Oklahoma City +13 tonight @ Lakers.I like OKC +7 in the 1st half even better. Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted February 11, 2009 Share Posted February 11, 2009 I like OKC +7 in the 1st half even better.Ef. I knew the Lakers would come out and play like shit tonight, and they did for 21 mins. 15-2 run to close it out. Don't bet against Kob. Link to post Share on other sites
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