Odds Argument

[MNBassin 0]

you hold 2 hearts, flop comes with 2 hearts. what are your odds of hitting flush?Friend says 35% I say more around 25%Now if it is 35% he says you need 2 to 1 odds to call. My thinking is 3 to 1 odds25% he says 3 to 1 and I say 4 to 1who would you say is right? this is a long standing argument that I want to end

[david_keena 0]

you hold 2 hearts, flop comes with 2 hearts. what are your odds of hitting flush?Friend says 35% I say more around 25%Now if it is 35% he says you need 2 to 1 odds to call. My thinking is 3 to 1 odds25% he says 3 to 1 and I say 4 to 1who would you say is right? this is a long standing argument that I want to end

i say 7.8%and 21 to 2

[vbnautilus 48]

you hold 2 hearts, flop comes with 2 hearts. what are your odds of hitting flush?Friend says 35% I say more around 25%Now if it is 35% he says you need 2 to 1 odds to call. My thinking is 3 to 1 odds25% he says 3 to 1 and I say 4 to 1who would you say is right? this is a long standing argument that I want to end

Depends if you are talking about odds of hitting your flush by the river or by the turn. You are right that odds of hitting your flush by the river are about 35%, so you would need 2 to 1 if you arenot getting charged any further to see the river which is generally not the case. Odds of hitting it on the next card are more like 20%, so you probably want 4 to 1 to see that next card. All this is not taking into account the implied odds of how much you will get paid off if you hit.

[Ben_G 0]

With 2 cards to come its 35% and with 1 its 19%....Maybe this will help you out a bithttp://www.tightpoker.com/poker_odds.html

[StupidKid 0]

If villain has the flush draw then they are at least a 6:1 favourite.

[James D 0]

you hold 2 hearts, flop comes with 2 hearts. what are your odds of hitting flush?

50/50You either do, or you don't.

[simo_8ball 0]

this is a long standing argument that I want to end

How long, exactly?

[StupidKid 0]

How long, exactly?

That's what she said?HEYOOOOOOOOOHHHHH!

[Ben_G 0]

How long, exactly?

Aparently since before they learned of calculators and the internet.

[TravisG 0]

50/50You either do, or you don't.

75/25 for you if you have cards of different suits.

[MNBassin 0]

have had this argument for about a year. in my mind 33% = 3 to 1 not 2-1

[Merby 3]

I will start with your second question and then answer your first question.

Now if it is 35% he says you need 2 to 1 odds to call. My thinking is 3 to 1 odds25% he says 3 to 1 and I say 4 to 1who would you say is right? this is a long standing argument that I want to end

This second question is actually about terminology used in discussing odds rather than it is about any mathematics.2 to 1 odds mean that if you run an experiment 3 times, you will win once and lose the other 2 times (think of 2 to 1 as "2 losses for every 1 win"). Thus having "2 to 1 odds" is identical to having "a 1 in 3 chance" or 33% chance of winning. So having a 35% chance of winning is very close to having "2 to 1 odds" or "a 1 in 3 chance". In this case, your friend is correct, although I understand your point of view as well.Similarly, a 25% chance is the same as having a "1 in 4 chance" or having "3 to 1 odds" (3 losses for every 1 win, on average).

you hold 2 hearts, flop comes with 2 hearts. what are your odds of hitting flush?Friend says 35% I say more around 25%

It depends on whether there may be action on the turn or not. 1) If you are asking for the odds on getting a heart as the turn card (i.e. you both have chips for possible betting on the turn and/or river)There are 9 hearts remaining out of 47 unknown cards (52 cards minus your two hole cards and the three flop cards). Thus you have a 9 out of 47 chance or roughly 19% chance of catching a heart on the turn. A 9 out of 47 chance corresponds to a 38-to-9 chance (38 non-heart outcomes and 9 heart outcomes) or roughly a 4-to-1 chance of hitting a heart. You need to be getting 4:1 on your money to be able to profitably call.2) On the other hand, if you are facing an allin bet on the flop, then there will be no future betting. In this case, you only need the odds of catching a heart on the turn *or* river to be able to call. As we discussed above, there is a 9/47 chance of catching a heart on the turn. If you do not catch a heart on the turn, then there is a 9 out of 46 chance of catching it on the river. The full calculation is:9/47 + 38/47*9/46 = 0.3496... So you have a 35% chance of catching a heart on either the turn or the river.

[MNBassin 0]

great explanation there.....now here is the kicker...if it is 35% and you constantly play 2 to 1 odds......are you playing winning poker or break even poker"?

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

great explanation there.....now here is the kicker...if it is 35% and you constantly play 2 to 1 odds......are you playing winning poker or break even poker"?

Edited because I misread your post:If you have a 35% chance of winning and are getting 2:1 on your money, you are winning long term - but marginally

[Merby 3]

Depends on the Pot Odds

A classic response right there

[MNBassin 0]

say you play 2 to 1 odds on flop and turn and river the flush and on those hands that you make the flush you get paid off 50% of the time. and the bets are the same

[Merby 3]

Edited because I misread your post:If you have a 35% chance of winning and are getting 2:1 on your money, you are winning long term

I still liked your first response, but at least this one answers his question.

[Merby 3]

say you play 2 to 1 odds on flop and turn and river the flush and on those hands that you make the flush you get paid off 50% of the time. and the bets are the same

I strongly recommend using the 2-to-1 odds figure *only* when there will be no betting on the turn and river (i.e when you're facing an allin bet on the flop). In *all* other cases, you should go by the 4-to-1 figure.You're correct that implied odds can give you justification to call bets that aren't quite 4:1 odds (perhaps you're getting 3.5:1 odds versus an opponent who has a big hand and you're both deep-stacked), but constantly finding excuses to call bets when you're not getting the correct price is exactly the situation you should avoid if you want to be a long-term winning payer.

[TravisG 0]

the key with flushes are implied odds, which means the chance of getting payed further if you hit your flush. even if its deadly obvious that you have a flush, with the way you played it, most, if not every decent-good internet player will pay you off if you know how to lay him the "right price" for a call. there are, of course, some requirements to that. the perfect thing would be, your opponent has a good hand and you know that (like you raised with.. AQ suited opponent raises small and forces you to call because of pot odds and flop comes 2 of your suit with a king or whatever), you are both deepstacked so it doesnt hurt him to call, and the perfect thing would be, to disguise your draw a little bit (how you do that is your thing). how it is with live play, idk, don't have much live experience.

[DCJ001 0]

have had this argument for about a year. in my mind 33% = 3 to 1 not 2-1

67% is 2/3. 33% is 1/3. If your chances of winning are 33%, you're a 2/3 to 1/3 (or 2 to 1) underdog.

[Ouch-8s 4]

67% is 2/3. 33% is 1/3. If your chances of winning are 33%, you're a 2/3 to 1/3 (or 2 to 1) underdog.

yeah but should you switch doors after Monty shows you a goat or not? that's where i always get messed up.

[freak2304 0]

67% is 2/3. 33% is 1/3. If your chances of winning are 33%, you're a 2/3 to 1/3 (or 2 to 1) underdog.

Elementary Mathematics, FTW.