Hsp $500k Game

[Snamuh 0]

How about Doyle folding Big Slick?...he is waiting for an implied odds situation to scoop some $

Not that unbelievable and I'm not sure what you mean about an implied odds situation. He's OOP vs a tight reraiser. He generally needs to hit the flop, which he's only going to do about 40% of the time, and if Barry's holding 99+ (maybe TT+/AK - I don't know BG's range) like he's representing, he doesn't have a ton of value with it. I think calling the button raise was the first mistake, as raising would have been a better option (though I'm not one to question Doyle's play).

[drcossack 0]

I feel this is completely wrong. This isn't a tournament, it's a cash game. There isn't a "better spot." It's a +EV play or not.

I'm gonna disagree with this.Ignoring straddle (I don't think there were any for this episode, though I could be wrong), the blinds are 300/600 w/a 100 ante. Doyle has at least 500k in front of him. He's @ 460k (over 700 Big Blinds) or so after this hand - he can loosen up later because the stacks are ultra deep.We know Doyle's flush is probably good because we can see the holecards, and I'm sure he knew it too, but with the players feeling one another out in a higher buyin game, there's no need to stack off with a 10 high flush so soon(assuming, of course, Gold has the higher flush)

[Snamuh 0]

I'm gonna disagree with this.Ignoring straddle (I don't think there were any for this episode, though I could be wrong), the blinds are 300/600 w/a 100 ante. Doyle has at least 500k in front of him. He's @ 460k (over 700 Big Blinds) or so after this hand - he can loosen up later because the stacks are ultra deep.We know Doyle's flush is probably good because we can see the holecards, and I'm sure he knew it too, but with the players feeling one another out in a higher buyin game, there's no need to stack off with a 10 high flush so soon(assuming, of course, Gold has the higher flush)

You missed my point. I didn't argue that Doyle's fold was wrong (because I liked his fold a lot). I argued that the poster who I replied to had false logic. He (Doyle) didn't fold because he could find a better spot. That type of logic does not exist in cash games. If a player feels the play has +EV, he makes it. He does not fold because he feels he likely has the best hand but can "find a better spot" like it's a coinflip or something. If he makes the marginally +EV decision and loses the hand, he reloads.

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

You missed my point. I didn't argue that Doyle's fold was wrong (because I liked his fold a lot). I argued that the poster who I replied to had false logic. He (Doyle) didn't fold because he could find a better spot. That type of logic does not exist in cash games. If a player feels the play has +EV, he makes it. He does not fold because he feels he likely has the best hand but can "find a better spot" like it's a coinflip or something. If he makes the marginally +EV decision and loses the hand, he reloads.

Of course the logic of getting your money in at the most advantageous situation exists in Cash games.My point was that Doyle clearly wasn't 100% sure he was +ev at that point in time and he can find a spot where he can get his $ in with better confidence. He floded because he can get it in at a better spot where he was more sure of his position.But talk about faulty logic. No one is treating this like a "Normal" cash game. If they bust out, the are not just going to "reload". It is almost like Tourney mentality.

[El Guapo 8]

I'm gonna disagree with this.Ignoring straddle (I don't think there were any for this episode, though I could be wrong), the blinds are 300/600 w/a 100 ante. Doyle has at least 500k in front of him. He's @ 460k (over 700 Big Blinds) or so after this hand - he can loosen up later because the stacks are ultra deep.We know Doyle's flush is probably good because we can see the holecards, and I'm sure he knew it too, but with the players feeling one another out in a higher buyin game, there's no need to stack off with a 10 high flush so soon(assuming, of course, Gold has the higher flush)

Blinds are set a 3/6/12

[gfdsa146 0]

is it just me or is Antonio Esfandiari the best out-of-hand player i've ever seen?

[David_Nicoson 1]

Doyle's fold to Gold was a great read. Anyone who thinks different is being results oriented. Gold thought he had the best hand and Doyle read him for strength. Doyle did not want to go for his whole stack when he could have easily been beat with no outs.

FellKnight made a very interesting post on rgp about this hand.

I don't think it has anything at all to do with turning down a goodsituation now to play later. I think he made an assessment that he wasbeat and laid his hand down accordingly.Here is my take on the hand:While watching it, I knew that Doyle was going to lay it down to thecheckraise, for all the obvious reverse implied odds reasons. At thetime, I thought it was a very good laydown. Now, I have changed my mind,and I think that Doyle made an error. Here is why:Blinds are $300/$600/$1200. Preflop action goes Jamie limps in MP, Doylelimps after, Antonio limps the button, Sammy and David complete and Patrikchecks. Pot is $8,000 going to the flop of Ks 4s JdThe blinds all check, and Jamie checks. This is a key bit of info in thehand. Everyone talks about the turn checkraise, but the flop is where wecan get all our info about the hand. Doyle bets $6,000, all fold to Jamiewho just calls. We'll come back to this later.Turn brings the As. Jamie checks again and Doyle bets $25,000. Jamiemakes a pathetically obvious speech about trying to make a play on Doyleand makes it $125,000 to go. Let's assume there is no chance of Jamiehaving less than a flush here. What hands that Jamie could hold beatDoyle, and what hands lose to Doyle? Doyle has some key blocker cards inhis Ts 8s. Jamie could have a Queen high flush (the nuts). This would beconsistent with his play throughout the hand. What specific hole cardscould he have though? Qs Js is possible, but unlikely for two reasons:1. Jamie has the stone nuts on the turn with the 2nd nut hand covered aswell, he has to know that Doyle can't be better than the 3rd nuts and sohis overbet on the turn is very unlikely to get called and veryun-Jamielike.2. On the flop, Jamie would have had a pair and a flush draw. Fromwatching Jamie's play in the past, and even what he insinuated later on inthe episode after his failed Jack high bluff, is that he loves big draws,and builds big pots with them. There is almost no chance that Jamie wouldhave checked the flop to Doyle with Qs Js, and, had he checked, almost nochance that he would not have checkraised when everyone folded to him.Thus, we can reduce QsJs to a very small chance.The same arguments apply for Qs 9s. Pair and a straight draw, this is ahand Jamie likes to bet. All other Qxs hands are Qs 7s or lower. Jamielikes playing weird cards, but not so much big-little suited (like Sammydoes). Jamie much prefers playing a 32s to a Q4s, and Doyle should knowthis from watching last season. Also, Jamie was the first limper preflop. This further reduces the chance thathe is played a hand like big-littlesuited.Next, the Jxs hands, Js 9s is a pair and flush draw, same arguments asabove. Js7s is the same. All other hands are unlikely anyway. So wehave 4 possible sets of hole cards that realistically beat Doyle, and yetJamie did not play his hand consistently with any of these.Moving on down the line:9s7s is possible. So is 9s6s. 9s5s is a stretch, so we'll drop it.7s6s, and 7s5s are possible. 6s5s and 6s3s. 5s3s and 3s2s are allpossible, even likely given Jamie's actions on the hand. This is 8 handsthat Doyle beats, compared with 4 slightly unlikely hands that he does not.Now, we also have to consider the reverse implied odds. Let's assume thatif Jamie does have the Queen or Jack high flushes, he is going to followup with a $200,000 value bet. (Pot size would be $270,000 before thebet). If Jamie has a smaller flush, he might either check and Doyle wouldbet $150,000 on average (I'm not sure if Doyle would bet $100,000 or wouldmove in), or Jamie might also bet, but I'll leave the average bet on theriver at $150,000 if Jamie has a smaller flush. Let's further assume thatDoyle simply calls any bet.The math on this is as follows: 4 times, Doyle loses $332,200. 8 timesDoyle wins $287,800.4(-$332,200) + 8(287,800) = $973,600, or an average win of $81133 pertrial.Even if you reduce Jamie's holdings to 6 worse hands, Doyle still posts a$39,800 profit per trial.So, in conclusion, what seemed like an obvious fold at the time, I thinkwas actually an incorrect fold after considering all options.Fell

[CobaltBlue 662]

FellKnight made a very interesting post on rgp about this hand.

Actually, I'd come to a similar conclusion for similar reasons. Jamie's highly unlikely to have a flush better than Doyle's based on the previous action.

[AussieAssassin 0]

When is episode 2 of the 500k airing in the US? I think it would be episode 11 overall?

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

When is episode 2 of the 500k airing in the US? I think it would be episode 11 overall?

Tonight 12 October

[DCJ001 0]

Tonight 12 November

FYPTime flies...

[Pot Odds RAC 23]

FYPTime flies...

Youch!