copernicus

eventually boil down to EV, and thinking of it so many different terms (pot odds, implied odds, pot equity and so on) only confuses the issue.Determine the probabilities of winning/losing after a fold, call or raise, apply those probabilities to the likely pot you will win or additional bets you'll lose and add them, and you have the EV of each move. Make the play that has the highest EV (unless there are future hand considerations such as advertising a loose call). Its not that hard if you dont make it that way.

I still agree with the conclusion, but not your reasoning here. No one is blind stealing on the next hand if you fold, since you will be forced to call with any two cards. Any calls/raises on your blind will be real hands...which of course is even more reason to make a stand here.

Sorry, but equity is a $ value not a percentage. Period.

Hold em Analyzer gives you tables of every hand vs every other hand and you can simulate any hand over millions of trials vs any number of opponents. Q7 is the average hand heads up. Without going to the numbers it should be fairly obvious that Q7o is better than J9o heads up, but J9o is better against a large number of potential callers, since neither is likely to hold up on high card strength multi way, and you need the most straight possibilities.

will win 1/2 the time...heads up. Any number of simulators out there will prove that to you. J9o is a lower ranked hand...heads up.None of which is relevant to this thread. The issue is only whether you are getting sufficient odds to push on this hand voluntarily or be forced to commit everything on your bb and there isnt enough information here to know how players are going to react to an UTG all in vs defending the blind. Without that other knowledge I think pushing UTG with j90 clearly has a better chance than defending a blind with a random hand. At least its a 1 gapper in the top 1/4 or

This hand is used as justification for playing with a big stack, but I think thats wrong in a full table ring game where all players are of equal ability.99 is a drawing hand that is likely to face at least a few callers. With a drawing hand you would rather be in a position to see all 5 board cards without further money at risk...ie you would rather be all in and short stacked.With a power hand AA, KK, maybe QQ that is going to be calling all the way almost all of the time without improvement you would rather have a big stack so that you can manipulate pot odds and cash in since you are favor

call it a slump. This doesnt cover enough hands to qualify as anything special.

4/52 * 4/51 * 3/50 * 3the single card first of pair 2d of pair any position for singledon't sue me if it should be multiplied by 2 for the order of the 2 pair cards, but I think thats taken into account by using 4*3 already!

Small two pair re-raises marginally on the flop..I would vary my play there between calling and re-raising all in. A set or Ks up a re-raise on the flop would be awful imo. In his seat he can only read your likely hands as AK, KQs or a pair higher than 7s, leaning toward AK. In any of these he wants you to think youve got best hand and will come at him on the turn. With only 1 K left your re-draws are minimal with only 4 outs and maybe runner runner possibilities. A reraise all-in carries too much risk of you folding and a smaller re-raise smells so bad you would be wise to fold to it. Unles

doesnt say whether he was button or one of the blinds, then the 5th best holdem player in the world (reminds me of a MAD mag cartoon where the "Best pizza on the block" has lines while the other bests in the city, state, country, world and universe are empty) doesnt bother to ask what position hes in, doesnt bother to ask what the other stacks are like, doesnt bother to ask any number of questions that might affect this decision.

we'll include eye of newt.

I will be releasing a new program shortly that does everything PT does and much more, including automatic hand history collection from multiple tablesreal time updates to the data baseautomatic display of key stats for players at your tableThe most important feature will be collections of hand histories at each stake level and mode of play (tourney vs ring). You cant possibly collect enough histories on any individual player to get statistically valid results on your own. We have teams of history collectors that will monitor covered sites 24/7. YOU will be on that data base. You should know as

is too big not to call. If you get unlucky, so be it,but in the long run you will build a big stack that takes a high prize more than enough to offset the times you miss squeeking into the money

to blinds it should be obvious that you keep the chip advantage.

at least till I finish Harrington. Sklansky may have more detail on stacks, bubble play and theory, but Harringtons description of the pro thought process and hand analysis is unmatched.

He is the best math oriented writer there is, and you wont find any "mistakes" in his writing. You could compare is books to others as "science text books" vs "popular science books". The latter you can "read", his you have to study to get anything out of them.Genius? maybe as a businessman and promoter, but not the books. Poker math isnt rocket science.

at least the major ones, and ive played them all.With the hundreds of thousands of players, all kinds of "patterns" will be seen. You just happen to know someone with one of them.

Why should you, in particular, be exempt from the laws of probability? One out of 100 expert players who can earn 1-2 bb/hr will face a 2 YEAR losing streak (maybe a little shorter online because of the number of hands per hour).Bad beats are only one cause of losses, and probably a relatively minor one. Get poker tracker and really look at your play. What is your calling % pre flop? What % of hands do you win at showdown? How often do rabbits catch your AA, KKs and did you bet them weakly?

What he said....foldExcept for the rare case of magic (flopping quads or a boat) hands that hit KTo are likely to hit a lot of other hands. Fold pre-flop.

highly unreliable and can be faked too easily, especially when a book like Caro's tells an actor how to act or not to act.The best reads come from knowledge of a specific opponents betting tendencies with different types of hands (trapping, check raising, all in etc) and without that specific knowledge replaying a hand mentally thinking "would a reasonable person have played XX" this way, weighted by the probability that he could have been dealt XX.

In Daniel's blog on the last tournament he mentions that if he writes his book he will explain why the Gus Hansens arent as crazy as they look. In addition to the previously mentioned reasons to play loose (to disguise hands "made" pre-flop and get paid for them and to pick up a lot of small pots) remember that connected suiters will catch some piece of the flop 40% of the time or so, and the chances that the flop hit the typical tight high card player are reduced. The key is strong post flop play with the risky hands that do hit...small top pair, middle pair etc. Position and a good read on

You contradict yourself..this is not "Technically a race" because it isnt all in preflop.

If they are colluders they are awful at it. After that flop colluders would be jamming the flop to get full value and more from any draws that remain and to limit the competition.

Yes, thinking your KQ was actually good at that point is well..maybe not crazy, but woefully optimistic at best. With that many hands dealt in the probability of a pair or straight is extremely high. For there to be no pair out there but KQ to be best, there would be no As, and a lot of duplication of 8.9.T.J.Q,K, assuming that the preflop action drove out the 4s and 3s (which arent A4, A3, or 43 since there are no As or straights).Remember in figuring out the likelihood of opponents (good) hands, you are looking at the number dealt in (for pocket pairs) and at the flop (a lot of players stic

how many "race situations" in those 25000 hands? How many of them were you a 56-44 favorite and how many a 56-44 dog? Are your heads up odds for these calculations correct...eg are you taking into account your and the opponents straight and flush possibilities?how many opponents dealt in in the 99 AAs? How many get to the flop turn and river? "statistics" arent meaningful without knowing all of the variables that affect the outcome.