111 replies to this topic

[karasz]

akishore said:

old-school players thrive on survival thinking. they want to live past day 1 and day 2.daniel has stated publicly before that he doesn't believe in this. he prefers to be in many action pots in day 1 and day 2. he argues that all the bad players drop out on these days, and those chips have got to go somewhere--he prefers to be the one collecting all that dead money.granted, the BB in this hand was gavin griffin, but daniel's not one to fold a possible winner because he's scared of elimination...anyone agree?aseem

i agree with what your saying, and i like the idea of making day 1 'thrive' instead of 'survive' like mosts, but the way i see it is shouldve re-raised post flop, with the over pair to about 3000, then see what mr. check raise does, but since that isnt an option you have to fold now, here's what you are thinking1) he as 2 pair/trips, YOU ARE LOSING, and you have 11 outs (2 Q's, 9 :heart:'s ) 22%, 1 in 5 chance of hitting (give or take)2) he has A Jx YOU ARE WINNING, with him having a 13 outs (3 A's, 8:heart:'s, 2 J's) which is 26%, 1 in 4 chance of him hitting 3) he has a smaller flush, YOU ARE LOSING, with only 7 outs, 14%, 1 in 7 chance of hitting why risk it ? either he has you beat BIG 78-22 if he has 2 pair or trips, OR even worse 86-14 if he has a smaller flush... you are basically hoping he holds A Jx, which still gives him better chances to hit then any scenario you have. i say take your 9k (shoulda re-raised post flop) and use that. a call puts your stack at 3050, which basically pot commits you regardless of the river, so you should definitely either push it here OR fold. i say fold, give him the 10k pot (man that sucks) and just get them back when you are a favorite in a hand. can we talk about how bad a play it was to call with QQ post flop?

[akishore]

hey karasz, good post.i'm sorry, i made a mistake. i gave myself outs for the straight also (since the turn was an offsuit K), but i forgot to change "two cards coming" to "one card coming".so on the turn, you actually have 14 outs (according to daniel's journal... 9 hearts, 2 queens, 3 non-heart tens), so you're at about 30%. you would prefer pot odds of 2.30-to-1.the pot is 475 pre-flop, then 4675 on the flop, to which your opponent overbets 5500, so now the pot is 10175, and you're getting 1.85-to-1 to call. with these pot odds, you want to win at least 35% of the time.daniel mentions that you are up against two pair, trips, AJ (ace of hearts), or a very small flush.against two pair, you have actually 14+3 outs (those extra 3 outs can counterfeit his two pair, giving you a better queens up), so you're 37% to win.against trips, you have 14 outs like normal.against AJ, you are ahead.against a small flush, you are down to 7 outs, 15%. this is a bad situation.so i'm not too sure what to do. it appears that folding is correct since two situations are marginally profitable while two others are not.however, one thought comes to mind... how about using the king as a scare card? if you push here, he has to worry you just hit your set of kings. this might make a lower set fold.interesting...aseem

[karasz]

i wont lie, i completely forgot about the straight possibility. so you have a better chance in every hand, except against the flush. good idea on using the K as a scare card, the problem is though that you have 9050 left, with 5500 bet so the only thing you can do is push. i will say this though, the more i think about it, and talk about it... i think pushing it might be the move.although i still stand by the fact that it should have been re-raised post-flop. can i change my vote? pushing it here is the better choice.

[monoatomic]

I like pushing all in here.He check raises the flop. Alright that is nice and all. Obviously he has hit some kind of TPTK/Good draw.The river comes a K of clubs. What would make a person make a pot sized bet in this situation? If they have trips they would be scared of a flush, scared of a straight maybe with that king an even higher set. If they have A J, they actually somewhat improved in the hand. They now have the nut flush draw, a straight draw, and middle pair with top kicker.If they have the baby flush the bet could be the perfect bet getting you to draw to a straight or make trips now crap.So, I would have to say if I were sitting there and I was a pro and the money wouldn't break me or I would be upset about losing a 10k buyin, I would push in that spot, and make him call off his chips to me. If he had the nuts then so be it, but I wouldn't be upset with my move. It's either a fold or a push all in. Calling in that spot is probably the worst thing to do.

[Awful]

DanielNegreanu said:

It's day one of a WPT event and you have your chips up to about 11,100 from it's original 10,000. The blinds are still 25-50 and you look down at Q Q and make it 150 to go. The button calls as does the big blind. The flop comes: J 9 2 and the big blind checks to you. You bet 400 and the button calls. The big blind now check raises you to 1900, 1500 more. You call and the button folds. The turn card comes the K and your opponent bets 5500. You now have a flush draw as well as a straight draw. Based on what you know of the player you are quite sure that you are up against two pair, trips, A J, or possibly a very small flush. The King doesn't scare you at all, but you are stil pretty sure that your opponent has the best hand. What would you do?

Calling seems like the worst option. You've put 2050 in the pot already of your 11,100. Putting 5500 more, leaving you with 3550, further action, and little idea of where you're at is terrible. Furthermore, your all-in will be called based both on the read and also the pot odds laid by your move; seems like an odds problem as $ is far away so chips=$ (pretty much, as far as I know this stuff).Now, what are your outs?Vs. 2 pair not using the K: 14 (2 Q, 9 hearts, 3 T's)+counterfeitingVs. 2 pair using the K: 13Vs. small flush: 7Vs. set: 13Vs. AhJx: 33 safe cards. (46 in deck, 3 aces plus 8 remaining hearts plus 2 remaining jacks kill you).So, what are your pot odds?475 preflop4275 after flop action9775 after his bet, plus your last 3550All-in, you're getting 13,375 to 9050. Less than 1.5 to 1, ONLY AxJh gives you proper odds, and I believe that's among the less likely opponent's holdings. No reasonable distribution of opponents hands justifies it. You still have a decent stack, let this go and prepare to chop back. Drop those ladies in the muck and hope for better next time.

[SportsW234]

It is day one of the tournament and of the potential hands you're up against you can only beat one. I don't think this is the spot to gamble in. I would say fold is the best option with going all-in being the second.

[AceOfSpades]

XXEddie said:

....I just have some stupid hunch the guy has AJ with the A:heart: knowing this, even though you only have roughly 1/3-1/4 of what you started with, calling gives you a shot to get away hereIf he does have AJ with a A:heart: he wont fold to an allin on the turn, or probably the river, calling gives you a shot to get away....man im just setting myself up to get bashed for this one*sigh*

Calling is exactly what I would do. Test him out, show people at the table your willing to take chances, and lets say the river comes up, (nothing leading to anything like a flush or straight) go all-in, hes probally waiting on the flush with the A

[bigedjr17]

Fold, like the knicks in 4th Quarter (Sorry, had to echo Smash)

[harvey]

I would think that if the big blind was going to play JJ or 99 in this situation, he would put in a nice raise before the flop--enough to get the button out of the hand. Not doing this would be a pretty big error for someone in a big tourney. Therefore, I would tend to assign these hands lower probabilities. Calling with AJ, or low-medium suited connectors would be a more reasonable play. Just calling with AA or KK would not be entirely out of the question.The check raise on the flop would allow me to assign a very high probability to AJ with the heart or low suited connectors, with AA KK JJ 99 all assigned lower probabilities. If I was the big blind, with either of these hands I would be a little scared when the hero called the large check raise on such a scary board. I would tend to put the hero on a high pocket pair, a Monster flush, or a draw to a Monster flush, at this point. But why would he just call my check raise with a high pocket pair? A reraise would give him the information he needed to play the rest of the hand, where a call would leave him a bit in the dark. Therefore, I would be thinking about a Monster Flush, or a monster flush draw more than a high pocket pair. With a monster flush draw being the most probable. Now a king hits on the turn. If I had AJ, I would be concerned with minimizing my loses at this point. I might still bet here, but probably only half the pot maybe less. If I had the suited connectors I would bet the pot at this point. I'm somewhat confident I have the best hand and if he calls with the flush draw I want it to be a big error in my favor. If he goes all in, it would be difficult to call with my low flush.Therefore, If I thought the big blind was a reasonable player, I would put something like 76 of hearts as the most probable of hands, followed by AJ, followed by KK AA JJ 99. You will notice that calling with ANY of these hands if I move all in is a little hard to swallow. Therefore, I would move all in. His bets show some fear, so I give him what he is most afraid of. Just calling the flop and moving all in on the turn displays real power and this early in a tournament a rational player wouldn't risk all his chips when a monster flush is one of your most probable hands. I think all in would give you a better than 1 out of 3 chance of taking down the pot on the turn, not to mention outs you have for the river. I suppose this is why I don't do this for a living...

[KramitDaToad]

What I don't like about this hand is, based upon the read, there is no river card, with the exception of maybe the A:heart: that would make me feel any better.Sure your hand can improve with a lot of outs, but even if one does hit there can be no confidence that your in front.From his blog, it looks like Daniel called here so that may well be the 'correct' play. If it is I would like to hear his reasoning, however I'm folding.

[Random Fluke]

If you call here and miss your outs, you know all your chips are going in anway. And if you hit your heart out, you may still be beat... There is no way I can see justifying a call here, considering how much faith you probably have in your reads. Basically the only cards that make you feel safe on the river are your 2 queen outs and 3 non-heart tens... actually you said a small flush was possible... so yeah, no river cards make you feel safe. yeck.The dreaded QQ hand has ended a lot of tournies for me. Worse than JJ imo, since it is harder to get away from at times.

[ddudley]

I consider myself an extremely aggressive tournament player, almost too aggressive. However, I don't think I could take this hand any further. I'd have to fold here even though I have read what aseem wrote and agree with it. I'm just not going to put my whole tournament on the line for a 28%ish chance to win (and I don't think coming over the top is going to get him to fold as I have put him on a set trying to prevent the one card flush.)I also folded A-Q and 6-6 to a preflop re-reaise the other day when it was 7 handed at the final table... maybe I'm not as insanely aggressive as I think?

[SplashMaster]

how can a call be even remotely correct. i think it is 100% fold

[Mandelbrot]

Quote

The blinds are still 25-50 and you look down at Q Suit: Heart Q Suit: Diamond and make it 150 to go.

I think 3x BB was a bit on the low end for this hand.As for what to do, I would fold. I'm guessing Daniel would call or go all-in.

[gregdon8]

I know this is against the overall consensus, but here goes...1. Fold2. Call3. All inFold first because it is till early and you are right around where you started. Especially if you are DN i this situation and have ful confidence in your abililt to get back to where you were in no time and wait for a better spot. I dont like calling in situations where I am hoping to be only behind by... I chose call before all in for one reason. This is a tournament and although survival is not new school thinking, you still need chips to play. WHat I am trying to say is your still in with 3500 and with the blinds where they are not in that bad of shape. In these events the blinds go up very slowly and you will be fine for hours with that stack, so you cna tighten up and wait for opponents to make mistakes into you.An all in inmy opinion accomplishes nothing. No one is going to fold in that situation with the pot odds what they are. You learn nothing more and are now puting your tourney life in the hands of the river. If your hand is best and holds up you now have round 20,000 as opposed to 16-17,000 if you flat call. At this stage in the tourney there is not much of a difference between those two figures, and with the all in you are risking your tourney life with little reward.To sum it up IMO the All in RISK/ REWARD ratio is way off here and is not the right play. YOu are DN fold and wait for a better spot, like when you hit your 10 7 offsuit for a str8 !

[dtemp]

akishore said:

3. this seems like an ideal flop to attempt a bluff-check-raise.

This is exactly what I was thinking until Daniel said that he was sure he had a better hand. From what I saw of Gavin on the WSOP (if this is that hand from the blog) this is exactly the kind of play that a constant bluffer will pull. Hell, when I'm running over a table this is exactly the kind of move I pull. I give him at most an ace of hearts, maybe with the J. Although I think if he had the AJ he would have just over bet the pot insted of check raising.The only right move here seems to be a push all in, as there are too many scare cards that can come up and too many bets Gavin can still throw his way. Now would I have to guts to do this? Probably not.

[Awful]

gregdon8 said:

I chose call before all in for one reason. This is a tournament and although survival is not new school thinking, you still need chips to play. WHat I am trying to say is your still in with 3500 and with the blinds where they are not in that bad of shape. In these events the blinds go up very slowly and you will be fine for hours with that stack, so you cna tighten up and wait for opponents to make mistakes into you.

There's another round of betting after this. So, what if a heart comes and you make your Q-high flush? Guess for your tournanent whether he has AhJx vs. another 2 pair/set/lower flush? What if it doesn't come and the decision is reversed? What if you hit the straight, you'll still be guessing for all your chips on the river when the opponent can have a made flush. Your chips are gonna go in on the river and you won't know any more than you do now. If you can play the hand for over half your remaining stack right now, are you really gonna fold the river when every card that comes can be either good OR bad even given our established range of opposing hands?Also, cash is too far off for "survival" to matter. With less chips, you limit the amount you can win while also forcing yourself to make more in the early going. 2 double-ups to hit an average stack. You only get so many big hands and big opportunities here and to have to use every edge just to get back to average. By leaving yourself with so few chips, you're ensuring an out-of-the-money finish nearly as much as calling and getting busted.

[gregdon8]

Awful, you made some good points. What I am saying though is that you are basically throwing that extra 3500 inon the turn for no reason. No one should fold that with the pot odds. At least if say another jack hits (scary) or heart not an ace, you can still decide to fold that last bit if you really think that you are beat. Also, this is a WPT event which means that you have plenty of time to get your chips back up. As an example I will use a current example...yesterday Phi Ivey had only 20,000 chips in one point despite being the chip leader earlier that day (Reno). Through and insane rush he got his chips back up to 250,000 in a little less than two hours.Why throw in that last 3500 on the turn ? What do you hope to gain ? Points well taken though Awful.