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It's just a matter of taking off your foul-mouthed, beer swilling fanatical hat for a moment and putting on your decent human hat.

as a jaded blue jays fan, my arguments for signing Bautista for whatever he is asking:   1. If they don't spend it on Bautista, it won't get "Better spent elsewhere" on other players. This is the bl

Here's a good example how the Jays current run can establish life long fans throughout the county.   My nephew who is 11 years old lives in Montreal and only cared about hockey last few years. Love

Reported by Rick Westhead (who I don't like) Bautista wants 5 years at $25 mill per year

 

I think it might be $30 million per year

 

 

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BARGAINING BOMBSHELL: As per @rwesthead, Bautista seeks 5 years, $150M
http://www.tsn.ca/1.442180

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is this surprising? pretty much what I expected.

 

Pujols and Cano both signed contracts that pay them $24 million till they are 42. Bautista spent his prime years, as one of the best hitters in the MLB, making $13 million per year. Of course he wants to get paid, and somebody will probably pay him.

 

 

While I know it would be an objectively terrible contract, I would still like Rogers to open the check book for once and get it done. Jays have the third biggest market in North America, one of, if not the richest owner in the MLB, there's no Salary cap, and it's not my money. Why do I care if Rogers has to pay Bautista way too much for his age 39 and 40 seasons. I can already see lots of fans being "offended" that Bautista has the nerve to ask for that much money. We have an unbelievable team right now and a relatively small window to potentially win a world series. You have to pay, and usually overpay, to get free agent players to sign here. You aren't getting another Jose Bautista, even if you offer $30 million per season to somebody else. There just isn't anyone else available to fill that void IMO.

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That's what I was afraid of. A player confusing his value now, with his risk-adjusted as a 38-year old. Which is only a problem because it means we'll go all year thinking we won't get him, just to have his price drop in the offseason. Probably we wouldn't keep him even at his dropped price, but who knows, maybe? Certainly if we wait until the end of the year, with all the unknowns and ongoing negotiations at that time, seems like it will be harder to pay him then.

 

The last 3 years, Bautista has been worth 15.2 WAR, so about 5/year. WAR is very basically valued around $6M/year, so $30M sounds just about right. Again though, that is for the last 3 years, not the next 3, and with the knowledge he'll average 140 games/year, which is fair to question for a 38-year old.

 

I'd give him $30M to play in 2016, and maybe even in 2017. But that'd be about the limit. He won't get a 5-year deal, but I bet teams wouldn't be willing to talk about much over $100M for 5, and more likely it'd be more like $65M for 3.

 

*All numbers except the WAR stuff are totally made up by me.

 

Oh, and to be clear, if they want to pay him whatever I won't complain. Not my money. And I bear no ill will for Bautista asking for whatever he wants. He has a contract through 2016. He'll play hard through 2016. Anything after is his business.

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as a jaded blue jays fan, my arguments for signing Bautista for whatever he is asking:

 

1. If they don't spend it on Bautista, it won't get "Better spent elsewhere" on other players. This is the blue jays. This is a big market team disguised as a small market team.

2. It's not my money. it's the money of a billion dollar corporation. Watching Bautista brings me joy. Rogers spending $150 million does not decrease from my joy in any way.

3. The Blue Jays have a super star player with a pen in hand, saying "here is my offer, pay me this and I will sign right now". When do the blue jays ever have a captive audience for a super star player? never, that's when.

4. The Bat Flip

5. The idea of Bautista on the red sox

6. He's really friggin good.

7. He's also in incredible shape for 35 years old. He's less likely to sharply decline than somebody like say.. Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera because he takes good care of his body.

8. Did I mention it's not my money?

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I agree with everything you said Dubey, other than the $150M is not just a high number, it is an insane one. $125M would still be above-market. More importantly though, you hit the biggest point, which is that the Jays often don't get a sniff at free agents even when the dollars do match. Between taxes, the weather, facing AL East pitching, whatever, the Jays might have to overpay. Doing it for a superstar with huge marketing potential, and early enough to plan around is worth big money.

 

He also has a lot fewer at-bats than most star players his age. Not sure if he keeps himself in much better shape as you say, but there's less wear on his body.

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Listening to Blair this morning it seems like next winter is prime time for free agents as the pool is very thin!

 

Bautista will get the money from someone, as long as its not the Yankee's or Red Sox.

 

Getting sick just thinking about it!

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Pay him. This isn't hockey, there isnt a cap, and you have only a few years of Donaldson+others.

 

This is a no brainer for the owner, unless he is asking for way way more than he is worth.

And unless the owner is Rogers Corp., and you have to treat this like a business. Which it is. Which they are. Then, all bets are off.

 

They should pay him if his numbers are even remotely close to market value.

Im intrigued by how little Edwins name is coming up, and maybe would see he is nearly as valuable as Jose, especially if you believe what is said about the locker room effect of each man.

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Agree with most of you.

 

He isn't worth what he wants naturally. Usually no 35 year old is. However the Jays owe it to him and the fans to sign him.

 

Unless they will trade him and get solid long term assets.

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Pay him. This isn't hockey, there isnt a cap, and you have only a few years of Donaldson+others.

 

This is a no brainer for the owner, unless he is asking for way way more than he is worth.

And unless the owner is Rogers Corp., and you have to treat this like a business. Which it is. Which they are. Then, all bets are off.

 

They should pay him if his numbers are even remotely close to market value.

Im intrigued by how little Edwins name is coming up, and maybe would see he is nearly as valuable as Jose, especially if you believe what is said about the locker room effect of each man.

 

If I had to pick, I would choose signing Edwin over Bautista.

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If I had to pick, I would choose signing Edwin over Bautista.

 

curious, based on what?

 

There are many factors that make me like Edwin too, but Im a little nervous about his injuries the last couple of years, especially the back.

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curious, based on what?

 

There are many factors that make me like Edwin too, but Im a little nervous about his injuries the last couple of years, especially the back.

 

 

Edgar Martinez had his best 5 year stretch from age 33-38 exactly where Edwin is now. Being full time DH hopefully Edwin can stay healthy, if so I can't see a pure smart hitter like him slowing down considerably.

 

Also look around the league and how much value is placed on the clean up hitter. Edwin was the clean up hitter on the best offensive line-up in over 10 years, that should say enough about his value to this team.

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The basic statistical position for Bautista's contract - basically that if he ages as well as could reasonably be expected, he could look at $120M for 5 years. That's a higher number than I expected to be honest, though it's worth reiterating that is not based on a normal aging curve - maybe Bautista's history suggests some benefit of the doubt here, but probably not 90th percentile.

 

Anyway, if the numbers suggest a fair contract is $100M-$120M, Bautista would probably be overestimating his value LESS than most players if he said $150M (which he denies) and that's ignoring the marketing benefits, etc.

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What do you guys think hypothetically JoeyBats brings back in a trade today?

 

Or on July 31?

 

If for some reason the season doesn't go as planned and we are out of it, then it makes more sense to trade him? It all depends on the return obviously.

 

I love JoeyBats and would love to have him for 5 years but we have all seen players signed to long term deals at this age that have crippled the team. I do believe there is a likely chance Bautista is different but maybe not.

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I love JoeyBats and would love to have him for 5 years but we have all seen players signed to long term deals at this age that have crippled the team.

 

I'm sorry Serge, but you always say THIS and I dont know what you are referring to. Especially in baseball, how would it cripple the Jays? Can you give an example of a team in baseball that was crippled by a contract and no longer able to properly compete? Hell the Jays traded away Vernon Wells' awful deal.

Its no different than Rogers just arbitrarily setting their own budgets in the future at whatever number they please, which they do. If anything, after last year, the budget should be sky high and money should be next to no object to win.

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