nutonflop 0 Posted July 1, 2005 Share Posted July 1, 2005 I have heard a lot on this from the pros. As in don't lose more than a rack or two. Or stay when you're winning whenever the game is good. set time limit, not $ limits (sic DN)I have dif reasoning. (at least for when im winning)The way i see it is that on any hand, if your plaing good cards you're usually 80% to win after the flop and about 35% of the flopped hand you play, are called to showdown. If you play only 15% of starting hands you can add those up. .15*.35*.80= 04.2%. These are basically my limit stats online. those represent the hands your CARDS win. If you can win based on actions (e.g. getting someone to fold, just taking the pot down.) that can basically triple the hands you win (e.g if your opponent plays the flop 35% of the time to showdown like you do, you can pick up pot 65% of the time.) and get about 12% of the hands. So basically if your not ready to play for 15 hands 1.5 sm bets for blinds + 2 sm bets for preflop (3.5 smbets * 1 small bet 30% of the time) + 4 small bets that get back to you 80% of the time. you should not be playing.you need to spend 8.5 small bets before you win a hand 80% of the time. to win 20 small bets (basically2 to 1 considering there are two callers till showdwn. and a bet on every street) and 20 percent of the tme you will lose 8.5 sm bets to try to win. 1.5 bets. in other words, to remain "up" more than you are at the point when you consider to walk away, you need to play at least one in three hands preflop till you get a hand to showdown; and if you are playing 15% of starting hands you are playing about 45 hands to get one to showdown and 80% of the time you win.( 45 hands * 80% profit= 56 hands.) So....assuming 60 hand/hour, if you don't wanna stay around for at least 112 minutes you might be better off leaving . that will give you a chance to run this cycle twice. now, if youre a fast player, or in a very tight game where you can take down pots--which, is albeit very tough in middle limits-- using your action to take down pots you may get up to triple the profit by bluffing. with this said you can reduce the hand you need to see to 37 (112hands / 3 ), if yer fast.I know this math is all sorts of screwed up, but it makes sense to me. Any thoughts, or holes in my logic? I'd like to hear if you guys have a system besides, "if the game is good, stay" or "if i'm tired leave". Cause even in a good game youre only 80% and we need to determain a break even point.editALSO: SORRY i also should have explained, this is the consideration i make only after i win a big hand. if im playing steady i whole heatedly believe DN's time strategy is the best way. my point is that if i'm a 1/2 hour away from my time mark, that may not be enough time in my shift to win a pot. i'll pay for blinds see some flops or worse yet, slip up at the end of the session by drawing a hand or calling w/ second best. even at best, you may pay for blinds if you tighten up and will a pot, but not by the law of averages... Link to post Share on other sites
nutonflop 0 Posted July 1, 2005 Author Share Posted July 1, 2005 bump. it's long but worth the read Link to post Share on other sites
Dhall901 0 Posted July 1, 2005 Share Posted July 1, 2005 what ever happened to playin the man? All those numbers make my head hurt..i just play sooooted cards. Link to post Share on other sites
PhishForChips 0 Posted July 1, 2005 Share Posted July 1, 2005 Agreed. Play Sooooooooted, and you will win. Guaranteed. Link to post Share on other sites
nutonflop 0 Posted July 1, 2005 Author Share Posted July 1, 2005 Agreed. Play Sooooooooted, and you will win. Guaranteed.so, in other words, you didn't read this Link to post Share on other sites
Ron_Mexico 4,219 Posted July 1, 2005 Share Posted July 1, 2005 nope.How bout this though. If a train leaves Chicago headed west at 85mph and arrives in Los Angeles 15 hours later, after only stopping for three 15 minute loading and unloading sessions. Another train heads east towards New York at the same timeand speed. It arrives in NY 7 hours after departure while having only 1 stop. The question is as follows: How big in the pants is Phil Gordon? I mean, he is like 6'9". Link to post Share on other sites
happyjuggler0 0 Posted July 1, 2005 Share Posted July 1, 2005 I apologize if you are offended but I skipped the math.If I am reading this right what you are basically saying is that on average you will lose money unless you play a certain amount of time, and unless you play that amount of time you should quit. The problem with this, assuming that is what you are saying, is that luck doesn't work that way. Sometimes you hit lots of hands in a short period of time, and sometimes you get a drought. DN is right in my humble opinion. Play hours, not dollars. If you are +EV in the long run, and your head is on straight that day and you are at a good table then you should play as long as those factors are true, or until you need to quit because of a non-poker commitment. Link to post Share on other sites
nutonflop 0 Posted July 1, 2005 Author Share Posted July 1, 2005 nope.no you didn't read this? or no i don't agree?i have a feeling questionong ron is a bad idea...please don't destroy this thread Link to post Share on other sites
nutonflop 0 Posted July 1, 2005 Author Share Posted July 1, 2005 I apologize if you are offended but I skipped the math.The problem with this, assuming that is what you are saying, is that luck doesn't work that way. Sometimes you hit lots of hands in a short period of time, and sometimes you get a drought. .right, but the long run poker is def not luck. rushes are great, but these are the basic averages. Link to post Share on other sites
Ron_Mexico 4,219 Posted July 1, 2005 Share Posted July 1, 2005 check my edit. I'm sorry, I wish I were that analytical, but unfortunately, anaI isn't my thing. Oh who am I kidding. Link to post Share on other sites
nutonflop 0 Posted July 1, 2005 Author Share Posted July 1, 2005 I apologize if you are offended but I skipped the math.The problem with this, assuming that is what you are saying, is that luck doesn't work that way. Sometimes you hit lots of hands in a short period of time, and sometimes you get a drought. .right, but the long run poker is def not luck. rushes are great, but these are the basic averages.ALSO: SORRYi also should have explained, this is the consideration i make only after i win a big hand. if im playing steady i whole heatedly believe DN's time strategy is the best way. my point is that if i'm a 1/2 hour away from my time mark, that may not be enough time in my shift to win a pot. i'll pay for blinds see some flops or worse yet, slip up at the end of the session by drawing a hand or calling w/ second best. even at best, you may pay for blinds if you tighten up and will a pot, but not by the law of averages... Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted July 2, 2005 Share Posted July 2, 2005 bump. it's long but worth the readNo, it's really not.There's a reason David Sklansky is a millionare from writing poker theory and you're not.Don't try and re-invent the wheel. Link to post Share on other sites
nutonflop 0 Posted July 2, 2005 Author Share Posted July 2, 2005 bump. it's long but worth the readNo, it's really not.There's a reason David Sklansky is a millionare from writing poker theory and you're not.Don't try and re-invent the wheel.how is it reinventing anyything. its just averages; like if you win a pot with aces, when will you get another pot that good. that's all. besides that i believe DN's time deal. what exactly do you not agree with? i'd like it if you were actually speceifc instead of flames. also what does sklanksy say? Link to post Share on other sites
DCSports92GSR 0 Posted July 2, 2005 Share Posted July 2, 2005 I don't set ANYTHING before I go to the table.If I feel like im a favorite and I'm running well, I will stay untill I feel I'm no longer the favorite or I start running bad.If I feel im not a favorite to begin with, I won't sit in that game. If i'm tilting, I won't play. Basically, as long as I feel like I am a favorite and can beat the game, im in there duking it out. The seccond three fish leave and are replaced by better players than me, im gone.If you set an ammount to win, then you could miss out on winning MORE than that ammount in a good game. If you set an ammount to lose, you could miss out on the game shifting and coming back, or losing more.Play it until you don't think you can beat it anymore. Link to post Share on other sites
nutonflop 0 Posted July 3, 2005 Author Share Posted July 3, 2005 I don't set ANYTHING before I go to the table.If I feel like im a favorite and I'm running well, I will stay untill I feel I'm no longer the favorite or I start running bad.If I feel im not a favorite to begin with, I won't sit in that game. If i'm tilting, I won't play. Basically, as long as I feel like I am a favorite and can beat the game, im in there duking it out. The seccond three fish leave and are replaced by better players than me, im gone.If you set an ammount to win, then you could miss out on winning MORE than that ammount in a good game. If you set an ammount to lose, you could miss out on the game shifting and coming back, or losing more.Play it until you don't think you can beat it anymore.i agree with everything your saying, but i'm talkinga bout catching a great hand when your close to wrapping it up for the night. you must feel at some point in the night when you win a hand that it may be the last pot you drag in. then you can apply this... Link to post Share on other sites
TheIceman05 0 Posted July 3, 2005 Share Posted July 3, 2005 you must feel at some point in the night when you win a hand that it may be the last pot you drag in. then you can apply this...Epecially if you get up and leave!Is this some kind of joke? Your lack of understanding of basic probability is astounding.Ice Link to post Share on other sites
Briguy 0 Posted July 6, 2005 Share Posted July 6, 2005 I play until I win a big pot, and then I leave the table, singing the Habs "Na-Na/Goodbye" song. Is that wrong? Should I change my name from Crusher McSmithereens? Link to post Share on other sites
kennyg1966 0 Posted July 6, 2005 Share Posted July 6, 2005 did ya eat a calculator or someting...wow 2 many #'s... Link to post Share on other sites
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