Muckuup 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 I play this side bet game when I play holdem, and im lookin for some more insight on it. I cant seem to find anything on it online or whatever and was kinda wanting to find out what the odds were anyway this is the game... I take Ace's Jack's and 3's and give the other guy the field. If not Ace jack or 3 comes on the flop I pay him 5 bucks if it does I get 5 bucks. I was told it was a sucker bet for the guy taking the field and just kinda wanted to find out the exact odds of it all? Any of you know the odds of the game... or the odds of an Ace Jack or 3 hitting the flop? Link to post Share on other sites
sloshr 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 You should take J72 or something like that. Same odds, you have the best of it, but if people notice you making money on this bet, you can tell them those are the hot cards, and maybe people will start playing their J2 and 72's. No need to convince them to play more aces.Sorry, I can't answer your question of how much it is in your favor, but you will make money taking this bet. Link to post Share on other sites
onlyme386 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 I play this side bet game when I play holdem, and im lookin for some more insight on it. I cant seem to find anything on it online or whatever and was kinda wanting to find out what the odds were anyway this is the game... I take Ace's Jack's and 3's and give the other guy the field. If not Ace jack or 3 comes on the flop I pay him 5 bucks if it does I get 5 bucks. I was told it was a sucker bet for the guy taking the field and just kinda wanted to find out the exact odds of it all? Any of you know the odds of the game... or the odds of an Ace Jack or 3 hitting the flop?You win if A, J, or 3 hits, so you have 12 "outs" 12/52 + 12/51 +12/50 = 70.6% of the time you will win the bet. Pretty sure it really is just that simple, could be wrong... Link to post Share on other sites
Pot Odds RAC 23 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 I play this side bet game when I play holdem, and im lookin for some more insight on it. I cant seem to find anything on it online or whatever and was kinda wanting to find out what the odds were anyway this is the game... I take Ace's Jack's and 3's and give the other guy the field. If not Ace jack or 3 comes on the flop I pay him 5 bucks if it does I get 5 bucks. I was told it was a sucker bet for the guy taking the field and just kinda wanted to find out the exact odds of it all? Any of you know the odds of the game... or the odds of an Ace Jack or 3 hitting the flop?Someone is sure to come by with the detailed math - in very round numbers, we have 12 outs 3 times. 12X2X3 is VERY roughly 72% of seeing one of those 3 cards on the Flop. Link to post Share on other sites
Muckuup 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Author Share Posted May 7, 2007 Good thought but I'd rather not entice someone to play j2 because I wont ever be able to put them on such a terrible hand haha. Link to post Share on other sites
uncooper 1 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 If I'm calculating right, than as long as you don't have an A,J, or 3 in your hand, there is something like a 73.4% of at least one of them coming on the flop. So an even money bet would be in your favor.edit: oh you make the bet before seeing your hole cards, obv. what they said ^^ Link to post Share on other sites
Muckuup 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Author Share Posted May 7, 2007 Oh it's definitely in my favor I was just wondering the exact percentage.. I've never lost at this game and I have never found someone to turn down playing it with me either lol. Their like I like my chances 40 outs to your 12.... Link to post Share on other sites
sloshr 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 The calculations in this thread aren't right. You can add the percentages for each card, but you have to subtract out the times that you get multiple hits. I don't know the math, but it should be the same percent as an overcard hitting when you have JJ, or around 99% if you are me. Seriously, I guess it is close to 55%, but someone who knows more about probability theory can surely give you an exact number. Link to post Share on other sites
onlyme386 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 The calculations in this thread aren't right. You can add the percentages for each card, but you have to subtract out the times that you get multiple hits. I don't know the math, but it should be the same percent as an overcard hitting when you have JJ, or around 99% if you are me. Seriously, I guess it is close to 55%, but someone who knows more about probability theory can surely give you an exact number.I don't think so, b/c it really doesn't matter if you hit multiple cards. WORST case scenario is 12/52 + 12/51 + 12/50 Link to post Share on other sites
Pot Odds RAC 23 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 The calculations in this thread aren't right. You can add the percentages for each card, but you have to subtract out the times that you get multiple hits. I don't know the math, but it should be the same percent as an overcard hitting when you have JJ, or around 99% if you are me. Seriously, I guess it is close to 55%, but someone who knows more about probability theory can surely give you an exact number.No. We don't have to hit ALL three, we have to hit ONE of 12 cards. Link to post Share on other sites
dunkirk 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 Assuming this is a running bet and you play it regardless of what is in your hand and in your competitors hand it is easier to calculate how you lose. The only way you lose is if he hits 3 consecutive of "his" cards.= 40/52 * 39/51 *38/50= approximately .447so you win approximately .553Take this bet at even money all night long. Link to post Share on other sites
Muckuup 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Author Share Posted May 7, 2007 anyone ever played this game before? if not what kinda games do you play on the side in live games to pass time hopefully where the odds are in your favor? Link to post Share on other sites
check_blazer 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 I play this side bet game when I play holdem, and im lookin for some more insight on it. I cant seem to find anything on it online or whatever and was kinda wanting to find out what the odds were anyway this is the game... I take Ace's Jack's and 3's and give the other guy the field. If not Ace jack or 3 comes on the flop I pay him 5 bucks if it does I get 5 bucks. I was told it was a sucker bet for the guy taking the field and just kinda wanted to find out the exact odds of it all? Any of you know the odds of the game... or the odds of an Ace Jack or 3 hitting the flop?You say this is on the flop, in which case it would be 12/52, or 23% of the time...I do not see why you would make this bet at even money. And, it is just a basic prop bet. Link to post Share on other sites
stevesavi 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 You say this is on the flop, in which case it would be 12/52, or 23% of the time...I do not see why you would make this bet at even money. And, it is just a basic prop bet.1 card flop? Link to post Share on other sites
Footballguru 0 Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 for the guy who asked about other side bets, a couple of even money ones are obv red or black flop. Also one person takes pairs below 8s (22-77) and one person above 8s (99-AA) so you each have 6 pairs, and if one of your pairs hit you can win. Its fun if you do both and can "scoop" a double bet (i.e if I have black and unders and a black pair of 3s come out I win both bets) Link to post Share on other sites
CrazyJoe 0 Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 Assuming this is a running bet and you play it regardless of what is in your hand and in your competitors hand it is easier to calculate how you lose. The only way you lose is if he hits 3 consecutive of "his" cards.= 40/52 * 39/51 *38/50= approximately .447so you win approximately .553Take this bet at even money all night long.ding ding! correct... not 70 something like some people have said, but still a good bet. Link to post Share on other sites
milojones 0 Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 we gamble alot on props when playing at my game. the chips have a dice set in them so we each pick a number or a couple of numers and roll one. or each get one and the high number wins it. we'll bet on pretty much anything. this one game we play is called "in-between" and you deal two cards face up and you bet on wether or not the next card is in between those two or not. very fun. sometimes the whole game will stop for 20-30 minutes while we degen our stack away on ridiculous prop bets. Link to post Share on other sites
Jam-Fly 8 Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 Oh it's definitely in my favor I was just wondering the exact percentage.. I've never lost at this game and I have never found someone to turn down playing it with me either lol. Their like I like my chances 40 outs to your 12....lol, surprisingly when i first read it, it seemed like that to me too. i can see alot of people very easily falling for this... Link to post Share on other sites
sloshr 0 Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 The calculations in this thread aren't right. You can add the percentages for each card, but you have to subtract out the times that you get multiple hits. I don't know the math, but it should be the same percent as an overcard hitting when you have JJ, or around 99% if you are me. Seriously, I guess it is close to 55%, but someone who knows more about probability theory can surely give you an exact number.HA! I get flamed for this and my guestimate turns out to be almost exactly right. The reason you have to subtract the multiple hits is that you are counting them twice when you get your 70% number. And yes, I quoted myself, deal with it! I also started a sentence with and, you can deal with that too. Just trying to help until the mathematicians got here, and I get "corrected" by people who are wrong. Link to post Share on other sites
onlyme386 0 Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 HA! I get flamed for this and my guestimate turns out to be almost exactly right. The reason you have to subtract the multiple hits is that you are counting them twice when you get your 70% number. And yes, I quoted myself, deal with it! I also started a sentence with and, you can deal with that too. Just trying to help until the mathematicians got here, and I get "corrected" by people who are wrong.if you think that was a flame you have much to learn... Link to post Share on other sites
Pot Odds RAC 23 Posted May 8, 2007 Share Posted May 8, 2007 HA! I get flamed for this and my guestimate turns out to be almost exactly right. The reason you have to subtract the multiple hits is that you are counting them twice when you get your 70% number. And yes, I quoted myself, deal with it! I also started a sentence with and, you can deal with that too. Just trying to help until the mathematicians got here, and I get "corrected" by people who are wrong.You're clearly a genius....an opinion without any substance is called a "guess" Link to post Share on other sites
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