Aa On Dry Flop

[Acid_Knight 2]

the villain is only going to have a set one out of every eight times. Two pair is incredibly unlikely here. So I think if we consistently get all the chips in when we're in this particular situation, we win somewhere around 7 out of eight times. That's a good enough ROI for me to lose one out of seven.

The odds of flopping a set are 1 out of 8, roughly. Just becuase those are the odds of flopping a set, doesn't mean those are the odds that the villain has a set here. The action gives us much more information and makes it much more likely that he has a set. Also, 3 different pocket pairs could have flopped sets, so that changes things too. The preflop odds of flopping a set have like zero bearing on the hand here since we didn't necessarily put him on a small or middle pair preflop.He limp-called preflop. Players will definitely do this with middle and small pairs. He is betting strongly on a fairly uncoordinated flop where his only likely 2 pair hand is 45. Assuming he's not bluffing, it's probably equally likely that he has a set as an overpair or TPTK or something else.

[Acid_Knight 2]

TT is weak. Your reaction to my betting half the pot lets me determine how weak. Insta-call or reraise me and I think REALLY weak. With a set, make a pot size bet as a re-raise. I would be a strong favorite to win and wouldn't mind building the pot or picking up the pot right there. But I also wouldn't mind if you did call and wanted to chase since now you have the wrong odds.

I'm not trying to be mean, but did you drop out of middle school in like the 7th grade or something?I'm pretty sure that what you're writing isn't English.

[Mikey Ravioli 0]

I aktully grajiated eyth grade.My point wasn't really worth trying to explain the first time, much less a second.If I was playing an overpair, I might bet about half the pot to get some action and see where my pair was at. If I flopped a set, led out, and got reraised, I might bet the pot. If you fold I take the pot right there. If you call I would be pretty sure I had the best hand and gave you a terrible price to draw. Either way, I am happy.In a cash game my objective is to come out of the game with more money then I went in with and I will try to take down a pot anytime I can. In a tournament setting I would be more concerned about knocking my opponent out.

[Zach6668 513]

In a cash game my objective is to come out of the game with more money then I went in with and I will try to take down a pot anytime I can. In a tournament setting I would be more concerned about knocking my opponent out.

I didn't read through your whole argument with Acid, but I want to clarify something here.You're right, your goal is to win money, but "taking down a pot anytime you can" does not necessarily translate to making the most money. It's a common misconception that I usually see in limit, where players try to win as many pots as they can, rather than maximize they're EV. In this case, I'm not arguing for or against a certain spot, but we need to keep in mind that maximizing our EV is the ultimate goal in poker, not winning as many pots as possible.- Zach

[No_Neck 0]

Pushing sucks, imo. Call and let him shove the turn, don't give him a chance to fold (although it would be a small chance).

yeah you are right, a push is gross, not sure what I was thinking.

[simo_8ball 0]

I still think this is a fold./shrug

[Acid_Knight 2]

Worst bump ever.

[NoBBiR 0]

You should be MORE likely to fold aces on this flop, than you should on a more coordinated board, simply due to the fact that there are fewer draws that villain could be playing fast.Anyways, if we call this, we're playing for stacks. We aren't folding a turn, obv. There is $135 in the pot, plus another ~$82 in his stack. So we'd need to call $55+$82 to win a pot of $217. We're getting 217-137... 1.58 to 1. Meaning, if we feel we are ahead here ~39% of the time, we can call.FWIW, I say call, not shove, because shoving may get a fold from a lesser hand. We're either way ahead or way behind, so if I feel I'm ahead 39%+, then I'm calling and letting him bluff/value bet off the rest of his stack.- Zach

This is like my montra when considering whether to fold aces. I rarely do anyway.

[meservery 0]

JJprodigy's gran is hot in that 18 year old boy kind of way...

[Sheiky 0]

I seriously think there are a lot of people that will play TT-KK this exact same way

[Zach6668 513]

You should be MORE likely to fold aces on this flop, than you should on a more coordinated board, simply due to the fact that there are fewer draws that villain could be playing fast.Anyways, if we call this, we're playing for stacks. We aren't folding a turn, obv. There is $135 in the pot, plus another ~$82 in his stack. So we'd need to call $55+$82 to win a pot of $217. We're getting 217-137... 1.58 to 1. Meaning, if we feel we are ahead here ~39% of the time, we can call.FWIW, I say call, not shove, because shoving may get a fold from a lesser hand. We're either way ahead or way behind, so if I feel I'm ahead 39%+, then I'm calling and letting him bluff/value bet off the rest of his stack.- Zach

Made a bit of a mistake here. Our total equity needs to be ~39%, which combines the times we're ahead, the times we are behind and suck out, and the times we're ahead and they suck out, not just strictly how often we need to be ahead.All in all though, I really owned this thread.