Facing An Early All-in ($11 Wpex Mtt)

[respec 0]

I've already posted this hand on 2 other forums and gotten decidedly mixed responses so I figured I've throw it up on here and see what you guys think:Very early in an $11 MTT. 50 players/ 9 paid. Play is generally loose and passive in the early rounds. Starting chips: T 1500 Blinds 15/30. My stack: T 550(after a brutal 7 outter sunk my flopped boat). I am short stack at the table. I have 99 in EP and open limp. 2 limpers behind me and the button (~T 2000) makes a huge over-raise raise to 575 (almost mocking me). Blinds fold and its back to me with 2 players still to act behind me. I know virtually nothing of Button, but the hand he won he had the nut flush with Axs and raised the river. This means very little of course since almost anyone would do the same thing with that hand. Other than that he hasn't done much but this is only about the 10th hand of the tournament. What's my play?

[Zach6668 513]

Insta fold.

[respec 0]

Thanks for the insta-reply.

[Zach6668 513]

Thanks for the insta-reply.

Let me quantify it with some reasoning.I mean, he may have something like AT or even A8 and just suck, but all we have is 99, and he could easily easlily have TT, JJ and not want to see a flop, or AK, AQ and we're racing, and frankly, we only have T30 invested, and it's not like we are desperate for a double up. We really shouldn't be looking for a situation where we are at best a race, at this point.If he raised less, then we can definitely call on implied set odds, but his raise has limited those, so it's best just to fold.

[tskillz187 0]

You're likely behind. But then again you've lost 2/3 of your stack in the first level and are playing MTTs on a rakefree site.So I would instacall this based on wanting to get back to grinding limit hold em, wanting to double up instead of playing with 600 or less chips for more than 10 minutes, and because its more fun to call.This post comes after I brag about my SS play,lol.

[Zach6668 513]

Jeeze, I missed we only had 550 left. Either way, our M is > 10, I don't see any reason to call here.

[respec 0]

Either way, our M is > 10,

Barely.

[Zach6668 513]

Barely.

Ya, meh, I could go either way, now.

[Briguy 0]

Insta-fold. The guy is trying to isolate you and is confident that he will win if you or one of the other limpers call. He's got to have some high pair, or maybe AK (I might even discount the possibility of AK). I seriously doubt you could be ahead of his range, unless he's a retarded monkey (which is possible, but requires a read).If he had a weaker made hand (TT-88, some high suited A or broadway), he'd probably raise to some amount that he could get away from if one of the larger stacked limpers reraised behind. Or just limp himself. Barring the retarded monkey syndrome.

[tskillz187 0]

Insta-fold. The guy is trying to isolate you and is confident that he will win if you or one of the other limpers call. He's got to have some high pair, or maybe AK (I might even discount the possibility of AK). I seriously doubt you could be ahead of his range, unless he's a retarded monkey (which is possible, but requires a read).If he had a weaker made hand (TT-88, some high suited A or broadway), he'd probably raise to some amount that he could get away from if one of the larger stacked limpers reraised behind. Or just limp himself. Barring the retarded monkey syndrome.

I disagree. This play is almost never QQ-AA. He's getting no value from anyone unless they pick up a real hand. And when people pick up a big hand they aren't hoping to trap the short.I find it much more likely he has a hand that is vulnerable to flops and he doesn't trust himself to play it well, something like 77-JJ and AQ/AK. I highly doubt hes bluffing and highly doubt it's QQ-AA but I think those %s cross each other off.I think it's pretty close and I'd call because we have soooooo few chips so early. M means a lot less when your stack is so super small, it doesn't matter than your M is 7 when your stack doesn't scare anyone.

[gobears 0]

This is close - I'd actually feel better about calling if villain had just pushed. He's actually giving better odds to the players to act behind you if you decide to call his raise.The player behind you gets 2.3-1 if you call.I fold here

[cdipierr 0]

Easy call to me here. There's 5 "bad hands" for us, a few "good hands", and then the others where we're a flip.Given that no one showed strength I don't see how we can automatically assume the button has a real hand here. With 550 chips, easy call to double. If he has TT+, oh well, otherwise I'll take the flip or with some luck, the 80/20. It's unlikely we're going to get our stack in better than 60/40 later anyway, may as well do it here when it might be 80/20.That said, I would have raised to start with.

[respec 0]

That said, I would have raised to start with.

Meh, maybe if the table dynamics were different. This big raise was very abnormal. For the most part the play was very loose/passive. I think there's more value in trying to spike a set and stack someone on the cheap than trying to narrow the field and play the hand post flop with a lot of my stack already invested. Too much risk for too little value IMO.