Win Percentage At Sd In Nl Games

[chipinchair 0]

Was reading CardPlayer and some other general info on Win % at Showdown and the consensus seems to be a Win % around 50-60% is ideal -- over the past 200K hands (at relatively low limits (0.50/1.00 NL and below) and playing like a rock) I have a Win % around 78.4%. Am I really not making as much as I could in these games? I am relatively tricky pre-flop (I mix it up a lot), but pride myslef on post flop play (which is what the almost 80% W%SD indicates). It could be that the 60% goal for W% at SD is only for Limit Games, but I am not quite sure. I just want to really maximize the $ I am making since I play 20K + hands per month. Thanks in advance.

[fleung22 1]

Was reading CardPlayer and some other general info on Win % at Showdown and the consensus seems to be a Win % around 50-60% is ideal -- over the past 200K hands (at relatively low limits (0.50/1.00 NL and below) and playing like a rock) I have a Win % around 78.4%. Am I really not making as much as I could in these games? I am relatively tricky pre-flop (I mix it up a lot), but pride myslef on post flop play (which is what the almost 80% W%SD indicates). It could be that the 60% goal for W% at SD is only for Limit Games, but I am not quite sure. I just want to really maximize the $ I am making since I play 20K + hands per month. Thanks in advance.

You need to provide more info for a real response.re: # of hands, V$P, etc.

[hblask 1]

From a theoretical point of view, anytime you are better than a 50/50 favorite at showdown, you should be getting as much money in as possible, right? So if your SD win % is 70%, you are missing out on a lot of chances. The reason the ideal SD% is not 50.00000001% is because nobody is good enough to know, exactly, every time when they are right, so upper 50s gives you a little cushion for your mistakes. This is also complicated by the fact that sometimes you are absolutely sure you have the best hand, whereas other times you just don't know, so the amount of money going into the pot is not the same every time. But basically, there is a good theoretical reason for being closer to 50% than to 70% if you are an aggressive player. On the other hand, if you can get callers with huge bets at a 70% win rate, go for it. Mostly, if you are only playing the hands that give you that kind of win rate, your opponent knows he is beat and is unlikely to put much money in. If your results show otherwise, don't change it.

[Royal_Tour 0]

200k hands,do u have your percentage around 200k hands??you also want to keep your win percentage higher, so 78 is much better than 60.NL showdown could mean someone is all in, or if you're even luckier and better you're winning them by getting hands and money all the way to the river.in both cases i suggest you live the best you can now while you're alive cuz you'll be dead soonthats all i got

From a theoretical point of view, anytime you are better than a 50/50 favorite at showdown, you should be getting as much money in as possible, right? So if your SD win % is 70%, you are missing out on a lot of chances. The reason the ideal SD% is not 50.00000001% is because nobody is good enough to know, exactly, every time when they are right, so upper 50s gives you a little cushion for your mistakes. This is also complicated by the fact that sometimes you are absolutely sure you have the best hand, whereas other times you just don't know, so the amount of money going into the pot is not the same every time. But basically, there is a good theoretical reason for being closer to 50% than to 70% if you are an aggressive player. On the other hand, if you can get callers with huge bets at a 70% win rate, go for it. Mostly, if you are only playing the hands that give you that kind of win rate, your opponent knows he is beat and is unlikely to put much money in. If your results show otherwise, don't change it.

isnt he Winning 78% at SD??

[chipinchair 0]

200k hands,do u have your percentage around 200k hands??you also want to keep your win percentage higher, so 78 is much better than 60.NL showdown could mean someone is all in, or if you're even luckier and better you're winning them by getting hands and money all the way to the river.in both cases i suggest you live the best you can now while you're alive cuz you'll be dead soonthats all i gotisnt he Winning 78% at SD??

Yeah, after 200K hands I am winning 78% at showdown. I certainly have built a nice BR doing this, but want to be sure I am not missing out on monies.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Yeah, after 200K hands I am winning 78% at showdown. I certainly have built a nice BR doing this, but want to be sure I am not missing out on monies.

ok the question is, what is your bb/100?? which is easier used in limit, but i guess you could figure out in NL., (bb meaning big blinds instead of Big bets)last time this was discussed i think people were saying in NL making 8-10bb/100 is decent

[chipinchair 0]

ok the question is, what is your bb/100?? which is easier used in limit, but i guess you could figure out in NL., (bb meaning big blinds instead of Big bets)last time this was discussed i think people were saying in NL making 8-10bb/100 is decent

In the 0.10/0.25 NL I am at 13 BB/100In the 0.25/0.50 NL I am at 8.5 BB/100In the 0.50/1.00 NL I am at 7.7 BB/100

[Knight_Owl 0]

In the 0.10/0.25 NL I am at 13 BB/100In the 0.25/0.50 NL I am at 8.5 BB/100In the 0.50/1.00 NL I am at 7.7 BB/100

Well done sir Keep it up! Its a relief I just started using poker tracker and only have 4,500 hands in. So after 200k hands is when I should take the stats seriously correct? (In limit)

[RayPowers 0]

The guy who wrote that obviously had no idea what he was talking about..Ray

[RayPowers 0]

Ok, to stop kidding around..

isnt he Winning 78% at SD??

Winning 78% at Showdown is normally an indicator that he is playing too tight, and only going to showdown with nuts or near nuts hands, when pot size or other situations (such as player type) indicate he probably should have called with more hands. His % may be less, but his money in pocket should be more.Another thing that idiot columnist did was not mention that the number is mainly oriented towards limit play, but in all honesty, No limit is not that different, its just dictated much more by pot size.I have meetings most of today, but I'll check back in on this thread when I can. :(Ray

[hblask 1]

Ok, to stop kidding around.. :)Winning 78% at Showdown is normally an indicator that he is playing too tight, and only going to showdown with nuts or near nuts hands, when pot size or other situations (such as player type) indicate he probably should have called with more hands. His % may be less, but his money in pocket should be more.

Yeah, that's what I was trying to get at. I mean, I could be near 100% win at showdown if I just never went to showdown without the nut, but there is no guarantee that is an optimal strategy. I'd play one or two hands per day. It seems to me, if I could go all in and get called every time, and I knew exactly that my win percentage is 50.001%, then playing more conservatively to get to, say, 51%, could be worse in actual earnings. Of course, poker is never that simple because of all the factors that determine winning. Many of my worst sessions have a win rate of 13% of all hands seen (as opposed to %win at SD). Many of my best are in the 7-8% range. Go figure....None of these numbers can stand on their own. 78% may be optimal if the OP has a way to get opponents to call with junk more often then most people do. His posted BB/100 numbers are excellent, so I'm not in a position to give him advice. I just think this is an interesting topic. Here's an example: using OPs current strategy, he will win 78 out of 100 hands that go to showdown. Lets say that he takes a new strategy and sees showdown more often. He will still win those 78, but now plays an additional hundred hands to showdown that he otherwise wouldn't have played. Say he wins 52 of these. Now his win rate is (52+78)/200 = 65%. He has the profit on the original 78, plus the profit of the additional 52 hands (assuming pot sizes average out in wins and losses in these additional hands). So he gets to play more AND makes more money. More money + more fun = mo' better. Can OP play these hands profitably? Maybe, maybe not. Sometimes these borderline hands are the ones that eat your bankroll. I personally try to avoid close calls in cash games for that very reason. But all else being equal, if you believe you can win greater than 50% of the time, they are free money.

[mtdesmoines 3]

From a theoretical point of view, anytime you are better than a 50/50 favorite at showdown, you should be getting as much money in as possible, right? So if your SD win % is 70%, you are missing out on a lot of chances. The reason the ideal SD% is not 50.00000001% is because nobody is good enough to know, exactly, every time when they are right, so upper 50s gives you a little cushion for your mistakes. This is also complicated by the fact that sometimes you are absolutely sure you have the best hand, whereas other times you just don't know, so the amount of money going into the pot is not the same every time. But basically, there is a good theoretical reason for being closer to 50% than to 70% if you are an aggressive player. On the other hand, if you can get callers with huge bets at a 70% win rate, go for it. Mostly, if you are only playing the hands that give you that kind of win rate, your opponent knows he is beat and is unlikely to put much money in. If your results show otherwise, don't change it.

I totally disagree. Pushing harder at showdown will completely obliterate bottom line results. Leave the all ins for tourneys, tv and the nuts. Win winnable hands and collect pots. If you push hard, your call rate will fall dramatically, and those calls you do get will be your beats. This is a recipe for disaster. Bet for value. Play the players. Read the table. Poker is not mathematics. If you think it is, you're going to lose long term. It's a game.

[RayPowers 0]

None of these numbers can stand on their own.

This is one thing the columnist tried very hard to state: this number is not fixed on its own. There's several factors that contribute to this number, and "trying to fix this number" is a recipe for disaster. Instead, identify what common leaks may cause this number to vary, look for issues with other numbers, and fix those, and this number should "right itself" naturally.Ray

[hblask 1]

I totally disagree. Pushing harder at showdown will completely obliterate bottom line results. Leave the all ins for tourneys, tv and the nuts. Win winnable hands and collect pots. If you push hard, your call rate will fall dramatically, and those calls you do get will be your beats. This is a recipe for disaster. Bet for value. Play the players. Read the table. Poker is not mathematics. If you think it is, you're going to lose long term. It's a game.

I'm not sure I was recommending pushing more hands to showdown. Maybe. I think I was just explaining why the accepted rate seems to be in the upper 50ish percentile. More than that and you are leaving money on the table with unplayed hands that, on average, are winners; below that and you are playing marginal hands that few if any players are good enough to play consistently. Unless your opponents are total idiots, trying for the theoretical ideal of aggressively winning at the 50.0001% rate will, indeed, cost you money. I wonder if the aggressive pros like Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen have Win At SD% closer to 50%? Or do they win by not letting their opponents go to showdown? (Which, of course, really confuses the issue...and shows why no one number is useful by itself, except mabye $/HR profit.)

[RayPowers 0]

Someone sent me their stats after part two came out, and since it's a good example, I am going to repost my responses to them here, name removed. This isn't to agree or disagree with my specific advice for this person, or to apply it to the original poster, but to show how other numbers can affect the % as an example. I kind of took two emails I had sent and combined them, so I apologize if it sounds slightly confusing.

Hey!Ok, I finally got some time to look at the stats.My first advice would be that it looks like you're still playing too loose preflop. At NL .50 and .25, where you have the most hands, your VP$IP % is 28.79 and 31.21, both which are pretty high. I personally hover in the 21-22% range, and Thomas yells at me for playing that much. (The "industry" average is 17-20%). Are you playing short handed? If not, you definitely need to tighten up there.Your WSD and W$SD confuse me a bit. You're WSD is slightly lower than expected, which normally would mean you're not going to showdown enough unless you have a powerhouse hand. This normally means your W$SD should be higher, but its not. Its hard to figure that you are continuously going to showdown with weaker hands than you should and folding stronger hands tho, so I think I have to go back to your VP$IP. Playing a weaker hand to start can often have you throwing away more hands post flop (because they miss and are not strong enough to stand on their own), or going to show down with a weaker hand than you should (out kicked and such)... The more I look at it, the more I think that just tightening up preflop will self adjust a lot of your numbers.I also want to mention that you are not off in that yes, a lower limit table will often see more people per flop, giving you a chance to have correct pot odds to play more pots. But even when I'm playing that way (LAGgy to me), I still hover in the 27% max spot. So yes, the limits and format (NL vs limit) you are playing in, may affect your VPIP, but probably not as much as your stats are showing.Hope this helps!Ray

[yergan 0]

I wonder if the aggressive pros like Phil Ivey and Gus Hansen have Win At SD% closer to 50%? Or do they win by not letting their opponents go to showdown? (Which, of course, really confuses the issue...and shows why no one number is useful by itself, except mabye $/HR profit.)

I agree. A higher W$SD could be indicative of less agressive play resulting in less pots won before show down.In looking at these figures its also important to know how many flops are won without reaching showdown and how frequently you actually reach showdown.