Pushing With A Draw

[Chasing50k 0]

2/4 NLHE cash game. I am on button and dealt A K UTG (Loose, weak) calls. I raise to 16. SB reraises to 40, UTG folds and I call. Flop comes 2 3 4 . SB immediatly bets 120. I have 280 left and he has me covered. I have been at table with SB for a while now and have seen him limp with KK and call a raise with AA, but not reraise preflop. I figure he has a mid-level pocket pair (88 - JJ). So by my calculations I have 18 outs (4 5s, 3 As, 3 Ks, 8 spades). If all of my "outs" are live I am actually a favorite in the hand approx 60% - 40%. What do I do here? Fold? Call? Push all in? Advise and comments are greatly appreciated. Thanks.

[MasterLJ 0]

You have some serious draws against a set here. You still have outs versus a straight, and a hojillion outs against a mid-pair (55-QQ). Pushing is good, although I don't think you have much fold equity which is generally a large factor that makes pushing with a draw profitable in the long-run.

[mtdesmoines 3]

2/4 NLHE cash game. I am on button and dealt A K UTG (Loose, weak) calls. I raise to 16. SB reraises to 40, UTG folds and I call. Flop comes 2 3 4 . SB immediatly bets 120. I have 280 left and he has me covered. I have been at table with SB for a while now and have seen him limp with KK and call a raise with AA, but not reraise preflop. I figure he has a mid-level pocket pair (88 - JJ). So by my calculations I have 18 outs (4 5s, 3 As, 3 Ks, 8 spades). If all of my "outs" are live I am actually a favorite in the hand approx 60% - 40%. What do I do here? Fold? Call? Push all in? Advise and comments are greatly appreciated. Thanks.

One way to think about it: how many buy-ins do you have left in your pocket? None to one -- Answer: don't pushTwo or more -- go aheadIn other words, if it breaks your bank, you can't call. If it's me .... I make a call here. You're on the button. You have a great chance at nutting up, or at least trashing his trips --- or KK ... ? ... Call, see what happens and let him make the mistake. If he checks the river, and it's a blank for me, I rely on a read to see if I push or not.

[hotbacon 0]

Such an easy push.99% of the time a push is for VALUE.You're ahead of overpairs besides AA. KK is barely ahead of you.Add in the overlay you get from money already in the pot, and this a really really easy push.

[Actuary 3]

PUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHif he calls, it's 280 to win 88+120+280(his 280) = 488thats' 1.74 to 1iow, you have to be 36% to win, and that's assuming 0 fold equity.When he has AA, you are > 35%.When he has 6s6x you are > 35% When he has 4s4x he's not re-raising pf to $40, but I"d still say we are >35%,or close enough...Against his range this is such an easy push. (lol..I swear..I was typing this when HotBacon wrote "such an easy push" )AINEC

[Sluggo 0]

I don't understand why pushing is best. If we're playing for value, then why give worse hands a chance fold? Couldn't a smaller raise be better, depending on the opponent?

[hotbacon 0]

I don't understand why pushing is best. If we're playing for value, then why give worse hands a chance fold? Couldn't a smaller raise be better, depending on the opponent?

'What exactly are the worse hands that you want to slowplay against?He reraised PF from the SB.AQ is really the only hand we would want to "slowplay" against, and that hand almost definitely isn't calling even a min raise (and probably isn't 3-betting/leading flop)Fodling AK here is gravy.As is folding TT+ or whatever, even if it's rare. We're not so much of a favorite vs his range that we actually prefer a call (but we cetainly don't mind one), since there's quite a bit of ddead monmey in the pot already.Also, making a small raise here will make us less likely to get paid (and more likely that our opponent doesn't make a mistake) if the turn is a 5, A, or K.There's really no reason not to push ere.

[Actuary 3]

I don't understand why pushing is best. If we're playing for value, then why give worse hands a chance fold? Couldn't a smaller raise be better, depending on the opponent?

I"ll remember this post whenever you suggest playing short stack NLH is better, or just as good.It can be, if you suck post flop.

[iggymcfly 0]

Where do people come up with these questions? If it costs half my stack to call, and I'm a 60/40 favorite at worst, should I push? I mean really, I don't see how you could possibly get this question wrong. It's like asking if a football coach should go for 2 when they're down by 2 with 30 seconds left. It's just self-explanatory.

[Fupo 0]

Where do people come up with these questions? If it costs half my stack to call, and I'm a 60/40 favorite at worst, should I push? I mean really, I don't see how you could possibly get this question wrong. It's like asking if a football coach should go for 2 when they're down by 2 with 30 seconds left. It's just self-explanatory.

Puuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuush!

[mtdesmoines 3]

2/4 NLHE cash game. I am on button and dealt A K UTG (Loose, weak) calls. I raise to 16. SB reraises to 40, UTG folds and I call. Flop comes 2 3 4 . SB immediatly bets 120. I have 280 left and he has me covered. I have been at table with SB for a while now and have seen him limp with KK and call a raise with AA, but not reraise preflop. I figure he has a mid-level pocket pair (88 - JJ). So by my calculations I have 18 outs (4 5s, 3 As, 3 Ks, 8 spades). If all of my "outs" are live I am actually a favorite in the hand approx 60% - 40%. What do I do here? Fold? Call? Push all in? Advise and comments are greatly appreciated. Thanks.

So I'm asking everyone now ... what do you put the villian on? AK hearts? All pockets include a spade: -Pocket fives? -Pocket 4s, 3s, 2s? -KK? -QQ? -JJ? -AA (unlikely, but would make a lot of sense)I need to "mature" the "reads" part of my game. What would you all be thinking?

[hotbacon 0]

The bulk of his range is going to be TT+That's all you really need to worry about.

[Actuary 3]

The bulk of his range is going to be TT+That's all you really need to worry about.

yep.6s6x or any set is very unlikely.in this case, great reading is non relavent

[Chasing50k 0]

I agree you push here. I did in fact push and got called. SB turned over Q Q so only one of my outs was eliminated. Of course turn and river bricked off. I was a slight favorite to win hand and lost but what are you gonna do. Sometimes I feel I review my plays and get too caught up in the results instead of the decisions. I feel pushing was the right play, just wanted to make sure I was not making any major oversight that an FCPer could help me realize. Thanks!

[mtdesmoines 3]

I agree you push here. I did in fact push and got called. SB turned over Q Q so only one of my outs was eliminated. Of course turn and river bricked off. I was a slight favorite to win hand and lost but what are you gonna do. Sometimes I feel I review my plays and get too caught up in the results instead of the decisions. I feel pushing was the right play, just wanted to make sure I was not making any major oversight that an FCPer could help me realize. Thanks!

I think it's right to push there. Payoff is great, youre the favorite, and the fold brings down the pot. Like I said, as long as this ain't the rent money, it's a decent push

[Sluggo 0]

Assuming a range of TT+, preflop he has a 33% chance of holding TT-QQ, 5% chance of KK, 5% chance of AA, 42% chance of AJ-AQ, and a 16% chance of holding AK. AA is the only hand where he's a favorite (but we still have odds to call). TT-KK and AK are the hands where he's an underdog, but has odds to call any raise. When he holds AJ-AQ, he should corrrectly fold to an all-in raise.Assuming he bets 80% of the time with TT-AA, and 15% of the time with AJ-AK, he'll hold AJ-AQ roughly 12% of the time.That 12% of the time, we're possibly making his decision to fold easier. Min-raising instead of pushing gives the villian about 3.75:1 instead of about 3:1. If he holds AJ-AQ, he may estimate a maximum of 10 outs (six for overcards and four for the straight) against a pair. If he gives himself six clean outs, then he has odds to call 3.75:1 but not 3:1. With AJ-AQ, calling would be bad for him and good for us.For example, if he thinks we have 66, then he has a 22% chance to win. With 3.75:1, he needs a 21% chance to call (incorrectly). With 3:1, he needs a 25% chance to call (incorrectly).The 88% of the time he has TT-AA or AK, he will probably reraise all-in. If he only calls, is it even plausible he folds to a $40 bet into a $568 (minus some rake) pot after a scare card such as a 5?I'm not disagreeing that pushing is better than min-raising. I'm just asking why.

[hotbacon 0]

This is almost never AQ or AJ.AJ never reraises PF.AQ might, but even so it's likely to check the flop.So AJ+ comboes all have to be severely discounted.And then, out of the severely rare occurence that he DOES have AQ/AJ, what makes you think he's even going to call a min raise? If he's retarded enough to play AJ+ like that and call a min raise, he's retarded enough to call an all-in.A min raise has no fold equity vs TT+, but a push does have some.

[Sluggo 0]

This is almost never AQ or AJ.AJ never reraises PF.

AQ and AJ are reraising hands in a six-handed game against a button raise. The original poster said that 88-JJ was a likely range meaning that (for the villian at least), 88 was a reraising hand from the small blind. If the game is shorthanded enough (or the villian stupid enough) that 88 is a possible small-blind reraise, isn't AJ a possibility? Are we assuming the game is ten-handed and the villian is rational?

AQ might, but even so it's likely to check the flop.So AJ+ comboes all have to be severely discounted.

I estimated he checks them 85% of the time. Even if he checks 90% of the time, that only reduces the chance of the villian holding AJ-AQ from 12% to 10%.

And then, out of the severely rare occurence that he DOES have AQ/AJ, what makes you think he's even going to call a min raise? If he's retarded enough to play AJ+ like that and call a min raise, he's retarded enough to call an all-in.

I explained that with AJ-AQ, he may incorrectly believe he has enough outs to call. To call a min-raise, he needs 21% equity but to call a push, he needs 25%.

A min raise has no fold equity vs TT+, but a push does have some.

Earlier you said the push was for value 99% of the time. Do you think pushing offers significantly more fold equity than min-raising?

[Chasing50k 0]

Thanks again for the great advise/opinions. For further clarification this was a 6-handed game.

[SapphireTiger 0]

One way to think about it: how many buy-ins do you have left in your pocket? None to one -- Answer: don't pushTwo or more -- go aheadIn other words, if it breaks your bank, you can't call. If it's me .... I make a call here. You're on the button. You have a great chance at nutting up, or at least trashing his trips --- or KK ... ? ... Call, see what happens and let him make the mistake. If he checks the river, and it's a blank for me, I rely on a read to see if I push or not.

whoa whoa...this is a dangerous way to play.If you are on your last buy-in then you are probably playing too high for yourself. You should be playing the same way no matter how many buy-ins you have left. You shoudl be bankrolled well enough not to worry about it. It's the same answer no matter how much money you have.

[pokerplayer24 0]

PUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHif he calls, it's 280 to win 88+120+160(his 160) = 368thats' 1.3 to 1

Edit: FYPactually this hand you have 280 total. So you would be putting in 160 more.But yea its still an easy push. His range could very easily be AA-99 and AK. Or something like that. Vs that range i'd say we are favorite.

[Actuary 3]

actually this hand you have 280 total. So you would be putting in 160 more.

we need to put in 120 to call + 160 to raise all in, right? = 280I broke villains bet into 120 bet and a 160 call.tell me where I'm wrong...

[pokerplayer24 0]

PUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHif he calls, it's 280 to win 88+120+280(his 280) = 488thats' 1.74 to 1

That was you. I needed to add a FYP i guess.

[Smasharoo 0]

Push, but you'd better push when you have 56 too.good luck

[pokerplayer24 0]

Push, but you'd better push when you have 56 too.good luck

I dont even think that matters at this point. Only having 160 more your fold equity is pretty nonexistant. No way you are folding any hand you currently have beat