stock market thread

[WrongWay 0]

Not much of a crash today...https://www.markit.com/information/affiliations/abx/historyPriced in, indeed.

[hblask 1]

Tell that to the investors of the Bear Stearns high leverage fund that cost investors $500 billion. Tell that to the investors in the Galinas Street Fund that are hoping to get out with 20 cents on the dollar. Tell that to the investors in Brookstreet funds that lost $300 million. Tell that to the investors in New Centrury and NovaStar. Tell it to the people that "invested" in real estate and now upside down and can't get out. Tell that to people like me that bought treasuries, and got pounded in the arse again today.Tell that to investors in Home Builders that took it where the sun don't shine.Tell it to people like me that lost 80% plus 7 years ago when the last bubble burst.Priced in???? What a joke!!! Efficient market my arse!!! Way for the rich to fleece the sheeple getting richer by doing nothing. Well, in this blowup, the rich will get sheered as short or shorter than the sheeple.

Perhaps you should understand what the concept is referring to before you argue about it....lol

[gobears 0]

Wrongway,You post a lot of stuff about crashes but it probably hasn't affected most of the posters in this thread. None of what you've posted about the CDOs/Sub-prime companies/real estate speculation/treasuries has impacted me yet. Eventually, a correction will occur but will it be a "crash"? If you could predict the when, you could be a rich man. Money can be made in bull and bear markets. As Erac said above, there are quite a few funds that are pure plays (some with leverage) on the stock market going down. If you feel that strongly about the market crashing, you can make money going short. For investors who are willing to take the time and to put in the effort to do solid research (whether it be fundamental or technical) and who understand how to manage risk, there is a great opportunity to make some excellent returns. Usually when I read stories of people losing all their money, it's because they let someone else manage or invest all their money for them. There are a lot of honest financial planners and brokers out there but of course there are some who aren't. Prime example would be those brokers who convinced those Florida retirees to invest and lose their whole savings in CDOs? You mentioned some areas where the market has obviously gone down (e.g. subprime lenders, real estate speculation, CDOs, homebuilders) but many sectors have done well (e.g. solar, energy, metals, agriculture, big tech.) There is money to be made in the market, whether you are a bull or a bear. I'm still on the bull side currently but I'm willing to change my mind if I see the major stock indices break certain support levels.

[Yoda 1]

Wrongway,You post a lot of stuff about crashes but it probably hasn't affected most of the posters in this thread. None of what you've posted about the CDOs/Sub-prime companies/real estate speculation/treasuries has impacted me yet. Eventually, a correction will occur but will it be a "crash"? If you could predict the when, you could be a rich man. Money can be made in bull and bear markets. As Erac said above, there are quite a few funds that are pure plays (some with leverage) on the stock market going down. If you feel that strongly about the market crashing, you can make money going short. For investors who are willing to take the time and to put in the effort to do solid research (whether it be fundamental or technical) and who understand how to manage risk, there is a great opportunity to make some excellent returns. Usually when I read stories of people losing all their money, it's because they let someone else manage or invest all their money for them. There are a lot of honest financial planners and brokers out there but of course there are some who aren't. Prime example would be those brokers who convinced those Florida retirees to invest and lose their whole savings in CDOs? You mentioned some areas where the market has obviously gone down (e.g. subprime lenders, real estate speculation, CDOs, homebuilders) but many sectors have done well (e.g. solar, energy, metals, agriculture, big tech.) There is money to be made in the market, whether you are a bull or a bear. I'm still on the bull side currently but I'm willing to change my mind if I see the major stock indices break certain support levels.

Very well put. And so true. However, that guy, he has diarrhea of the mouth and probably won't shutup.

[Yoda 1]

Hey, look. Add on 2007 - Subprime is gonna ruin the universe! And we've got a Wrongway chart!

[dfmaicher 0]

Hey, look. Add on 2007 - Subprime is gonna ruin the universe! And we've got a Wrongway chart!

+1

[Yoda 1]

Damn this crash is hurting bad; every single stock I own is up...CAT, PCP, ACAS, PCU, PTEK, CVS, TGB, ONT, MVIS, GRMN, NUE, FDG...what ever will I do!

[erac22 0]

Damn this crash is hurting bad; every single stock I own is up...CAT, PCP, ACAS, PCU, PTEK, CVS, TGB, ONT, MVIS, GRMN, NUE, FDG...what ever will I do!

Although I can't say I subscribe to wrongway's theory of impending doom, the fact that the NYSE hit a record for margin debt yesterday is wayyyy to bullish.

[Yoda 1]

Although I can't say I subscribe to wrongway's theory of impending doom, the fact that the NYSE hit a record for margin debt yesterday is wayyyy to bullish.

There's plenty of money on the sidelines, and there is record high short interest. As they say on Heroes, Kill the Shorts, Save the World. Or is that....anyway.

[erac22 0]

My boss had me write up a research report on NeuStar (NSR), mainly because the higher ups were confused about what exactly the company does. In my research, I found that the company's business was rather interesting. I'll post it in case anyone's interested. Comments/criticisms are welcome. NeuStar Inc. (NSR) $29.52NeuStar provides the communications industry with essential clearinghouse services as well as networking and infrastructure support in addition to maintaining the telephone numbering system for the United States Government. NeuStar generates revenue in the following ways:As administer of the North American Number Plan, NeuStar allocates telephone numbers, manages area code splits, and handles unassigned and assigned but unused telephone numbers. For these services, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) pays NeuStar in an annual fixed fee and cost plus contract.NeuStar is paid on a per transaction basis for administering the National Pooling Association. This entails allocating pooled blocks of unassigned phone numbers as well as reallocating pooled numbers after network consolidations.After the Acquisition of Ultra DNS, NeuStar began offering its “Ultra Services” to clients reliant on Domain Name Systems (DNS) in their web applications. These services include URL and email forwarding, security enhancements, network updates, and managing web traffic. Clients pay a monthly fee for a given amount of traffic volume, and a per transaction fee in excess.NeuStar operates the .biz, .us, and .kids, domain name registries. Companies and individuals pay a subscription in order to have their domain name in any of these registries.NeuStar operates the US Common Short Codes Registry. Common short codes are 5 and 6 digit numbers which serve as addresses for text messages often relating to television voting, ordering ringtones, charity donations or mobile services. For example, when an Americn Idol viewer wishes to vote for his favorite performer, he would send a text message from his mobile phone to the Short Code registered by American Idol. Information and entertainment content providers, or any other entity with a registered Short Code, pay a subscription fee to NeuStar.NeuStar manages the directory that allows individuals to change their communication service provider (CSP) without changing their phone number, in compliance with the Telecommunications Act of 1996 which mandated telephone number portability. NeuStar also allows service providers to change the network ID associated with a telephone number without changing the number after a network consolidation. NeuStar is paid per transaction for this service.NeuStar charges CSP’s a fee to access their clearinghouse such that calls can be routed between different networks.Through the acquisition of Followap Inc., NeuStar provides mobile network operators with support in developing Mobile Instant Messaging capabilities across their network. Roughly 95% of NeuStar’s revenue comes from within the United States with the remaining 5% coming from overseas. 75% of NeuStar’s revenue is derived from government contracts. If NeuStar’s stock price is to move higher, it will primarily be a result of solid growth in revenue and earnings due to increased demand for their services. There are a number of trends in the telecommunications industry that could account for a demand increase.An increase in the number of wireless subsribers due to new and improving wireless technology bodes well for NeuStar. As networks become larger and more technologically complex, CSP’s will increasingly rely on NeuStar’s dynamic clearinghouse services in order to seemlessly route communications between end users on both like and unlike networks. As new wireless technologies become more popular, specifically Voice IP (VoIP, internet telephony) and Mobile Instant Messaging, NeuStar may play a large role in configuring and maintaining these networks on behalf of the CSP’s.NeuStar also benefits from the recent trend of industry consolidation. Consolidation warrants the fusion of dissimilar systems and networks, increasing demand for NeuStar’s addressing and interoperability services.Strong competition and new entries into the telecom industry means that an increasing number of customers will be switching between CSP’s. The result will likely be an increase in transactions in Neustar’s telephone number portability services.NeuStar essentially has a monopoly in its management of the North American Number Plan, The National Pooling Administration, and Local Number Portability due to contracts with the North American Portability Management LLC as well as the FCC. They are also the exlusive administrator of the .biz. .us, and .kids domain registries, as well as the sole operator of the registry of US Common Short Codes. They are in indirect competition with Verisign, which operates the .com, .net, and .org registries, as well as companies like Stealth Communications, which creates and operates registries for VoIP. In the other aspects of its business, Neustar faces direct competition from companies in the business services sector that provide networking solutions such as IBM and Accenture.NeuStar has strong financials, with revenue growth of approximately four times the industry average, a very small amount of debt, and strong cashflow.Risks include possible early termination or lack renewal of any one of its seven contracts with the North American Portability Management LLC, which account for roughly 75% of NeuStar’s revenue. The stock also trades at over 30 times earnings, significantly higher than either the industry or S&P 500 average.The price target for NSR is $28.00 – 41.00, with a Street mean of 36.38, a 23% increase from its current price.

[erac22 0]

For what it's worth (which admittedly is not much) I'd recommend buying NSR, as a position in the company would provide exposure to both the strength and competitiveness of the telecommunications industry.

[Yoda 1]

So if we keep having babies and buying more phones, Neustar goes up? I like it.

[Yoda 1]

Anyone watching CNBC or other news sites? I'm waiting for Bush to say something stupid here and ruin the rally...wouldn't surprise me.

[gobears 0]

The Screen is Green and the Roof is on fire...at least for TodayJeff Cooper on minyanville.com used a poker analogy for the market TodayThe "flop" was the end of June when the S&P broke below its 50d MA due to the subprime mess so the Bears were aheadThe "turn" was on Wednesday when the market recovered the 50d MA again which put the Bulls aheadThe "river" is coming and it's do or die. S&P 1520 is a key technical support level. If the S&P breaks out to a new high above 1540, the shorts will be flushed out and the market should run. However, there is talk of the smart money going short at that point which in his analogy has the Bears drawing to a gut shot on the river.As for my thoughts,The rest of the writers seem mixed on the direction of the market which is good as you want folks who don't believe in a rally. If everyone believes, then there is no one left to buy. I did sell OMEX Today (The treasure hunting company) - stock is down a bit from when I bought and Spain just intercepted one of its boats which can't be good. My precious metals have been doing well - Lance Lewis made a good point about diversifying if you're going to play the miners. I don't own El Dorado Gold or EGO (whew) but they are down big due to a mine closure. I always buy the small miners since there's always a chance they get bought by one of the big miners but there's obviously more risk so I'm spread out over GSS, NSU, RBY, UXG. Thinking of adding KRY and WGDF.OB at some point to add even more diversification to my gold miners.

[aucu 3]

Just bouth some KHT @ $0.17Just sayinghttp://www.stockwatch.com/swnet/charts/cha...HT&region=Chttp://www.stockwatch.com/swnet/utilit/uti...psh_result.aspx

[Yoda 1]

Add TGB - Taseko Mines. Smallish copper company. On my other forum, some guy did fairly indepth analysis of their previous earnings, current copper prices, future earnings estimates. It screamed buy buy buy. Copper is at all time highs and with the global growth there is a shortage already and it's only expected to get worse.I bought a bunch at 3.12 and have watched it jump to over $4.00 (sitting at 4.25ish today). But I see no reason they can't be over $6 by Christmas and you can't ignore the possibility for a buyout as you mentioned.If you want to see the more in depth stuff this guy wrote let me know and I will dig it up from the other forum. I love me 30% gains.I should also mention that my other copper stock has been similarly on fire. Purchases at $89 and up close to 110 as of today.

[Yoda 1]

Just bouth some KHT @ $0.17Just sayinghttp://www.stockwatch.com/swnet/charts/cha...HT&region=Chttp://www.stockwatch.com/swnet/utilit/uti...psh_result.aspx

How much is some? That chart you used is worthless. But if you look at a technical chart it's pretty. Looks to be breaking out above it's moving averages. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=kht.v

[aucu 3]

How much is some? That chart you used is worthless. But if you look at a technical chart it's pretty. Looks to be breaking out above it's moving averages. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=kht.v

Some is not much only 40K, may pick up more, it might be a double by Labour Day, down side- can't see it going below 11Always a good thing when Canaccord is selling.

[Yoda 1]

Some is not much only 40K, may pick up more, it might be a double by Labour Day, down side- can't see it going below 11Always a good thing when Canaccord is selling.

heh, that's a lot more then i'd put into a short term trade or a spec at this point in the game. Good luck.

[Yoda 1]

Bye Bye 1540. I guess our buddy WrongAlways hasn't been around or somebody would be arguing with him. What a day.

[aucu 3]

heh, that's a lot more then i'd put into a short term trade or a spec at this point in the game. Good luck.

I'll throw about $10K at a few of these things every now and then.If the overhang of 165,000 at $0.18 gets cleared out, this one could pop.

[aucu 3]

Bye Bye 1540. I guess our buddy WrongAlways hasn't been around or somebody would be arguing with him. What a day.

Good thing the macro economic pissing matches are useless.

[WrongWay 0]

NYSE margin trading worked out well last time, didn't it. Oh.. it didn't.Well, I'm sure this time will be different.http://bp1.blogger.com/_2fuk3iGxQxM/RpYv6R...00-h/Margin.JPGToday was a nice short squeeze. Wait until the long squeeze comes and the margin calls hit.At least the bond market has bottomed... Oh, it hasn't?http://www.markit.com/information/affiliations/abx/historyHmmm... wonder what the risk premium will so for the housing market? Surely the lenders will be turning the spigot of crazy credit back on and get the market moving again. That should help the big banks clear off the $2.3 billion in REO properties they've had to add to their books becasue the homes can't be sold for close for what was owed on them.Dollar index hits new low. Trade deficit up yet again. Retail does better than expected. Well, not really. 45% beat lowered expectations, and 65% failed to meet lowered expectations. But enough beat to generate a few headlines to fuel the short squeeze, but only because credit card usage is way up. Heck, grocery inflation of 10% is the only thing that got WallMart same store sales increases CLOSE to core inflation. Couple days ago I mentioned I moved my 401(k) from stocks to T-bills, so was arse punded on the down day. Left somethign out. I "requested" the move a week ago, but it takes upto two weeks for the administrator to execute the trades. Well, late today they hit. SWEET!!!!! Stocks way up and bonds way down. I made a ton o' money today, and I'm out of stocks before the coming correction.Beware the profit takers. There was no reason for today's jump other than a mass short-squeeze. Look where the biggest gains were. Same areas that saw the most shorting. Profit taking will surely hit tomorrow.BTW: I'll be out of town all next week. NO internet. Don't expect any posts. I'm sure you'll be heart broken.

[Yoda 1]

Wow, even housing is up. BIG. Hovnanian is up over 10% and I don't even see any news. I would expect this is only a brief move up before still going down a little further. However I will begin monitoring support levels from their recent lows and see if there are bottoms forming.Overall market looks healthy. Next week could be very bouncy one because a lot of banks/financials are reporting. The jittery people will be in and out a lot I bet. Gotta love this week though, that down day has been erased and then some. I love me some new records.

[gobears 0]

Wow, even housing is up. BIG. Hovnanian is up over 10% and I don't even see any news. I would expect this is only a brief move up before still going down a little further. However I will begin monitoring support levels from their recent lows and see if there are bottoms forming.Overall market looks healthy. Next week could be very bouncy one because a lot of banks/financials are reporting. The jittery people will be in and out a lot I bet. Gotta love this week though, that down day has been erased and then some. I love me some new records.

There's chatter that Buffet took a stake in Hovnanian - but not confirmed