stock market thread

[Yoda 1]

The week that was:Markets were basically flat across the S&P and Russell. S&P continues to hold at a key support level (1490-1500)Best ETF (Oil +2%, duh)Worst ETF (Natural Gas -6%, for once it wasn't the Homebuilders although they came in second worst at -4%)Two up stocks of note are DSTI (Daystar) and HOKU (Hoku Scientific). Despite a Price to Sales ratio of 35 for Hoku and 651! for Daystar, both stocks made nice moves this week. Both companies are involved with the solar industry with their new fangled technologies of which I have no clue as to whether it will be the greatest thing since sliced bread. Exuberance and gamble are in the air in this sector for sure.Big Loser was Novastar (NFI) - subprime lender which gave back some of its recent gains. If you ever want to understand why setting some type of stop or strategy to sell is important, pull a chart of the past year for this company.

I think Solar stocks are going to be very volatile, and could even be called a fad related to high oil prices and "going green". Some of them are going to fail and go out of business and wipe out a lot of people's mobneys. Plus Cramer made a good point last month that there are like 4 new Solar IPO's coming to market with more possibly behind them. The market will probably become too saturated with all this solar stuff, however the best of breed will probably end up being a good investment. Today was a crazy day as expected. I ended it up $1.86. W00t for .0001% gains.

[Yoda 1]

That was an awesome day. As the Fly would say, I had big dicked gains in CAT, PCP, PCU, GRMN and ACAS.10 year bond went under 5.00% - Manufacturing Index very strong. Volume was light due to the holiday, but the news is good.

[Yoda 1]

07/03/2007 10:31:58 Bought 150 JSDA @ 14.306 -2,155.89 Had a feeling based on the trend that we were bottoming out here. I got out of Catepillar in the short term after they were downgraded (locked in a decent gain there at least)."Also gaining in the early session were shares of Jones Soda Co., which added 78 cents, or 5.4 percent, to $15.35, from their close at $14.57, following a report in the Wall Street Journal that said the company's long term outlook is positive.

[Yoda 1]

Well, that was an awesome quick trade.. I watched JSDA run up into the 15.90's just now. Since 15.80-16.00 was my initial target for the next jump, I decided to put in a stop market order of 15.80. This gives the stock a chance to keep running if momentum is strong, but it gets you out of the stock safely if it starts backtracing. I just got stopped out.Sold 150 JSDA @ 15.8054 2,360.78 1 day trade (if you nix the half day and holiday) +$204.89 or +10.5%

[erac22 0]

Bought more shares of Garmin today at 69.50 upping to a full position (30 shares ~$2100 worth).And where's my research Erac!?

out of the 3 I was researching (ace, prudential, nuestar) ace was definitely my favorite, and my boss (senior portfolio manager) agreed. P/E ratio is mad low (about 8) and while still showing good Revenue and EPS growth. The company has more cash on hand than debt, and its debt to equity ratio is low, around .1. Very few investors are betting against the stock as only .7% of its shares are sold short. The only things to be concerned about is that the stock is trading close to its 52 week high, and hurricane season isn't the greatest time to be investing in insurers/reinsurers.Although ace was my favorite, nuestar definitely intrigued me as wel, although I can't quite figure out how they make money. The good news is that the company has hardly any debt and its revenues have grown rapidly. The bad news is that its fairly expensive, P/E of over 30, and it's recently seen a decline in earnings. Their area for growth appears to be wireless instant messaging, which they say their customer user base will increase 5 fold in the next 3-5 years. But again, the problem is I can't quite figure out how they make money. i know the run the NANP, which is the phone number scheme in north america and 26 other countries, but i'm not sure if they collect a toll on every call or if phone companies pay them to run the system. I'll definitely need to do more research before i decide what to do with them.

[WrongWay 0]

That was an awesome day. As the Fly would say, I had big dicked gains in CAT, PCP, PCU, GRMN and ACAS.10 year bond went under 5.00% - Manufacturing Index very strong. Volume was light due to the holiday, but the news is good.

And how is today going? Dollar was crashing further until 10 year went back to 5.13%. Another billion dollar hedge fund locked the doors Monday night, but has yet to liquidate. Even Blackstone buying Hilton for 40% over Monday open isn't enough to lift the markets. But, hey, those are hard assets they can use as collateral to hold off margin calls on their high 10-1 leveredged positions on CDOs and MBSs that are worth MAYBE 70 cents on the dollar. (10-1 leverege means 10% drop in value wipes out their entire position, and the CDOs and MBSs are way under 90 cents on the dollar). Better to be 2-1 leverege than 10-1... 40% premium shows how desperate they are to get their hands on some hard assets to back those levereged positions.The hedge fund collapse that gets worse every day, and the losses those high levereged positions will cause to the Wall Street bankers is going to paralize both the bond and equity markets.There is not enough money printing capacity in the fed to paper over a 50% loss in the $1.5 trillion in sub-prime and Alt-A loans.

[Yoda 1]

And how is today going? Dollar was crashing further until 10 year went back to 5.13%. Another billion dollar hedge fund locked the doors Monday night, but has yet to liquidate. Even Blackstone buying Hilton for 40% over Monday open isn't enough to lift the markets. But, hey, those are hard assets they can use as collateral to hold off margin calls on their high 10-1 leveredged positions on CDOs and MBSs that are worth MAYBE 70 cents on the dollar. (10-1 leverege means 10% drop in value wipes out their entire position, and the CDOs and MBSs are way under 90 cents on the dollar). Better to be 2-1 leverege than 10-1... 40% premium shows how desperate they are to get their hands on some hard assets to back those levereged positions.The hedge fund collapse that gets worse every day, and the losses those high levereged positions will cause to the Wall Street bankers is going to paralize both the bond and equity markets.There is not enough money printing capacity in the fed to paper over a 50% loss in the $1.5 trillion in sub-prime and Alt-A loans.

Today is actually going GREAT, thanks for asking. JSDA jumped 10+% to make me a quick gain on a trade. Copper prices are still rising so both of my big holdings in PCU and TGB are up very nicely. Defense/Aerospace sector still going strong, got some big dicked gains in PCP there. And GRMN is holding onto a small gain in the face of a down market...gotta love that kind of resilience.

[erac22 0]

I know with all the scares in the sub-prime market, a mortgage bank is a tough sell. But check out these numbers for indymac bancorp (IMB). P/E of 6.88, Dividend yield of 6.9, ROE of 17%, a credit rating of BBB, and their exposure to sub-prime loans is only 4% of their operation. Their earnings are down recently, but the company is still quite profitable, and it's dividend yield is higher than its P/E ratio. Even if the stock bounces around, you're still making close to 7% just from dividend. I think it looks like a steal, anyone have thoughts?**also, 45% of the float is sold short, which means people may be scrambling to cover once the stock sees its first uptick.

[WrongWay 0]

I was thinking the drop in the treasury prices was from the drop in the dollar. Nope. 2 more hedge funds just locked the doors.People with money in the Bear Sterns highly leveredged fund can't sell their positions for 10 cents on the dollar. Anyone with money in a hedge fund needs to get out now or they'll be locked in forever.. Well, until liquadation when their positions are worthless.At least with a house, you're only looking at a 50%-ish crash in price.

[Yoda 1]

I know with all the scares in the sub-prime market, a mortgage bank is a tough sell. But check out these numbers for indymac bancorp (IMB). P/E of 6.88, Dividend yield of 6.9, ROE of 17%, a credit rating of BBB, and their exposure to sub-prime loans is only 4% of their operation. Their earnings are down recently, but the company is still quite profitable, and it's dividend yield is higher than its P/E ratio. Even if the stock bounces around, you're still making close to 7% just from dividend. I think it looks like a steal, anyone have thoughts?**also, 45% of the float is sold short, which means people may be scrambling to cover once the stock sees its first uptick.

That's still a scary looking chart. 6 months ago it was a $45 stock and now it's sub $30. Sometimes a huge looking dividend is huge because it's shares have been tanking. Plus it is still trading well below it's 50/200 day moving averages. Even though it has small sub prime exposure, keep in mind that the regular mortgage industry isn't exactly having fun times right now. Additionally, this is an interest rate sensitive stocks and rates still appear to be slowly rising.That's an insane short interest though, a short squeeze is possible, but first it has to have a significant catalyst to start it going up. And that would be signs of a strengthening housing market or a rate cut (wouldn't hold your breath on either).For high dividend stocks I like ACAS (recently added to the S&P) and PCU (Southern Copper - I've held since high 80s and it's teetering around $100 now, but don't buy right now until they settle the strike, it could be back in the low 90s in no time if this thing isn't resolved).

[erac22 0]

yeah, i already picked up acas and pcu for my model portfolio, acas got a nice boost by being added to the S&P. I definitely understand the concerns about IMB and the mortgage industry in general, but even in the midst of a housing crash, the company still has solid earnings, large dividends, and a good credit rating. Definitely some risk there, but in a diversified portfolio, i think it's a pretty good spot to speculate, even if you're underweighting financials which I am. Buying on bad news here might be a good way to get in on the ground floor.

That's still a scary looking chart. 6 months ago it was a $45 stock and now it's sub $30. Sometimes a huge looking dividend is huge because it's shares have been tanking. Plus it is still trading well below it's 50/200 day moving averages. Even though it has small sub prime exposure, keep in mind that the regular mortgage industry isn't exactly having fun times right now. Additionally, this is an interest rate sensitive stocks and rates still appear to be slowly rising.That's an insane short interest though, a short squeeze is possible, but first it has to have a significant catalyst to start it going up. And that would be signs of a strengthening housing market or a rate cut (wouldn't hold your breath on either).For high dividend stocks I like ACAS (recently added to the S&P) and PCU (Southern Copper - I've held since high 80s and it's teetering around $100 now, but don't buy right now until they settle the strike, it could be back in the low 90s in no time if this thing isn't resolved).

[Yoda 1]

yeah, i already picked up acas and pcu for my model portfolio, acas got a nice boost by being added to the S&P. I definitely understand the concerns about IMB and the mortgage industry in general, but even in the midst of a housing crash, the company still has solid earnings, large dividends, and a good credit rating. Definitely some risk there, but in a diversified portfolio, i think it's a pretty good spot to speculate, even if you're underweighting financials which I am. Buying on bad news here might be a good way to get in on the ground floor.

I prefer to just avoid the whole sector for right now, but I agree it will be time for some bottom feeding soon. I'm going to be buying into Residential Housing eventually. Been watching it come down down down and loving it. Some of them are trading at well below their liquidation value, that's pretty nuts. Eventually, you will see one of the housing reports come out, it will be bad news, and the residential housing stocks won't go down. This is when you will know we are nearing or at a bottom for those stocks. And that is when I will start opening some positions.Standard Pacific, Beezer, KB Homes, Lennar...yum yum.

[WrongWay 0]

I know with all the scares in the sub-prime market, a mortgage bank is a tough sell. But check out these numbers for indymac bancorp (IMB).

With 774 REO valued at only $185 million, they are doing much better than some mortgage banks. Isn't Countrywide pushing $700 million in REO? Still, I'd be VERY concerned with Indymac's huge growth in Home Equitly loans last fiscal year. They added like $50 million there, and those are loans with second right of access to the house, and therefore, they wouldn't even get the house in the foreclosure. Rahter than taking a 50% hit like primary loans are possibly facing, the equity loans could easily be looking at 100% hit in each foreclosure. Numbers out earlier this week show quickly climbing defautls in home equilty loans.In short, I wouldn't touch it with someone elses 10 ft. pole.

[gobears 0]

I know with all the scares in the sub-prime market, a mortgage bank is a tough sell. But check out these numbers for indymac bancorp (IMB). P/E of 6.88, Dividend yield of 6.9, ROE of 17%, a credit rating of BBB, and their exposure to sub-prime loans is only 4% of their operation. Their earnings are down recently, but the company is still quite profitable, and it's dividend yield is higher than its P/E ratio. Even if the stock bounces around, you're still making close to 7% just from dividend. I think it looks like a steal, anyone have thoughts?**also, 45% of the float is sold short, which means people may be scrambling to cover once the stock sees its first uptick.

That is a battleground stock - thestreet.com wrote a negative article on it while bankstocks is going the other way. I don't see any insider selling while there has been some insider buying which is a positive.Like Yoda said, technicals look blah. Arne Alsin (former realmoney writer) once wrote "Give me an edge or I won't play" - that applies here for me.

[erac22 0]

That is a battleground stock - thestreet.com wrote a negative article on it while bankstocks is going the other way. I don't see any insider selling while there has been some insider buying which is a positive.Like Yoda said, technicals look blah. Arne Alsin (former realmoney writer) once wrote "Give me an edge or I won't play" - that applies here for me.

Well I added Indymac to my model at the close last night, and it's up over 3% today! Weeeeeeeeeee!!!! If this thing gets any momentum the scramble for shortsellers to cover is really going to give it a boost.

[Yoda 1]

I don't see any catalyst, but the whole housing/mortgage sector seems to be rallying today. I think it's just a temporary notch up before resuming the downtrend. The numbers are too ugly right now. Hope you get the short squeeze though

[gobears 0]

Added VRNM today at 5.07. Involved in the production of low cost biomass-derived sugars. Company resulted from the combo of Diversa and Celunol. Vertical integration in the ethanol/biomass space. Jon Najarian on Minyanville.com spotlighted the stock this morning.Just sounded too sexy to pass up.And following up on WrongWay's messages about the sub-prime fiasco. Some of the early victims...Floria senior citizens..very sad..Florida Retirees hold the bag

[erac22 0]

It's funny, fall semester 2005 I took eco 341, Public Finance taught by Harvey Rosen. It was his first semester back after a 2 year sabatical during which he was an Economic Advisor to President Bush. When we got into the section about Government Sponsored Enteprises (GSE's, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae) Rosen relayed to the class that he on numerous occasions had warned the administration about the "Systemic Risk" associated with Mortgage Backed Securities and related hedging. Guess Harvey knew what he was talking about...

[WrongWay 0]

And following up on WrongWay's messages about the sub-prime fiasco. Some of the early victims...Floria senior citizens..very sad..

Billions are being lost EVERY day in the hedge fund blow up. The people feeling it first are the hedge fund investors. They are being locked in with little to no chance of ever getting anything out during the liquidation. When the liquidation actually happens, that is when the Wall Street banks that loaned these hedge funds trillions of dollars will be taking thier hits. Today's news. Meritage homes eats $100 million loss. Galina Street fund trying to liquidate $300 million in assets, paying investors back at 20% on the dollar. UBS fired their CEO rising rumors of huge losses. Investment banks are upping covenants and costs of lending. In the past two weeks alone, more than a dozen companies were forced to postpone or restructure debt sales. Interest rates still going up and dollar continues to crash, taking comodites and prescious metals up in response. Criminal investigation launched into New Century lending practices. Hedge funds rushing to follow Blackstone's flopped launch into the equity markets.It is 1929, and there is a run on the banks... ooops, it is 2007, and there is a run on the hedge funds.

[erac22 0]

So as i stated in an earlier post in this thread, I have a summer internship at a Philly based HNW Wealth Management firm (although I work in a smaller North Jersey office). Our office has one Portfolio manager whom I've been working closely with, and she charged me with the task of creating a model portfolio in a week with as little guidance as possible. A jumping off point if you will. This is my first real experience with investing. Here's what i've come up with as far as a stock portfolio: Erac’s PortfolioStock (65%)Bond (25%)Cash (10%)Stock Portfolio Breakdown (S&P 500) -Consumer Discretionary (7%) (10.31%) UNDERWEIGHT -Target Corp (tgt) -Boyd Gaming (byd) -Tim Hortons (thi)-Possibility of a slowing economy hurts discretionary spending-Higher fuel costs cut into what consumers can spend on discretionary goods and services-Sector is seasonally weak as consumers are paying off debts from the previous holiday season, as well as saving for the upcoming holidays -Consumer Staples (10%) (9.43%) -Pepsico INC. (pep) -Hansen Natural Corp (hans) -CVS Caremark Corp (cvs) -Altria Group Inc. (mo) -Energy (14%) (10.54%) OVERWEIGHT -Exxon Mobil Corporation (xom) -Valero Energy Corp (vlo) -Petrohawk Energy (hk) -GlobalSantafe CP (gsf) -Eni Spa (E)-High demand growth worldwide (especially in US, China, India) and the inability of supply growth to keep up will keep energy prices high-Forecast is calling for 13-17 named tropical systems (NOAA). If any make landfall in the US, there is a strong possibility it will increase fuel costs -Telecommunications (4%) (3.81%) -AT&T (T) -Chunghwa Telecom (cht) -Financials (17%) (20.86%) UNDERWEIGHT -JP Morgan Chase (jpm) -Zions Bancorp. (zion) -PMI Group Inc. (pmi) -Ace Ltd. (ace) -American Capital Strategies (acas) -Indymac Bancorp (IMB)-Loan defaults, especially subprime mortgage defaults are on the rise-Regional banks are hurt by flat yield curve, as they rely on spread lending-Concerns about inflation and a slowing economy will hurt this sector -Healthcare (15%) (11.98%) OVERWEIGHT -Novartis (nvs) -Waters Corp (wat) -Wyeth (wye) -Pfizer (pfe) -Becton Dickenson and Co. (bdx) -Health Net Inc. (hnt)-One of the most defensive sectors, which does will in times of a slowing economy-Predicted 15% growth in earning industry wide (Standard and Poors) -Information Technology (15%) (15.24%) -Apple INC. (aapl) -Google (goog) -Intersil Corp. (isil) -Qualcom (qcom) -Lam Research Corp (lrcx) -Utilities (4%) (3.59%) -First Energy Corp (fe) -Southern Company (so) -UGI (ugi) -Industrials/Materials (14%) (14.23%) -Southern Copper Corp. (PCU) -Toro (TTC) -Lockheed Martin (LMT) -Copart Inc (cprt) -MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc. (msm) -Applied industrial Technologies inc. (ait)Tell me what ya'll think. Also to shamelessly brag, notice that i have 3 5% gainers today, indymac, Target, and Hansen Natural

[Yoda 1]

First of all, I think you have an awesome job, I kind of wish I went into finance instead of computers. (And now I'm in HR/Staffing, go figure). But I guess what's good about the stock market is anyone can do it.You have many of my favorite picks in there and seem well diversified - You seemed to pick a lot of good companies. It should do well. You also seem to have a good grasp of the hot sectors (healthcare, materials, aerospace, Energy). Do you have this portfolio online anywhere? It would be cool to add it to a site like stockpickr.com to let others view it/track it. By the way, check out ACAS today also, the last 20 mins of the day the volume suddenly spiked from like 8million shares to 18million shares, it was ridiculous. Probably related to the recent addition to the S&P 500, all the funds getting their piece. Ended the day up over 3% (up 10% over the last few days), and it crushed it's 50day sma, and broke through a key resistance level. Just the other day they paid out their dividend also, I got a free 1.12 shares or something. I heart this stock.

[gobears 0]

Erac - looks like a solid well diversified portfolio to me

[erac22 0]

First of all, I think you have an awesome job, I kind of wish I went into finance instead of computers. (And now I'm in HR/Staffing, go figure). But I guess what's good about the stock market is anyone can do it.You have many of my favorite picks in there and seem well diversified - You seemed to pick a lot of good companies. It should do well. You also seem to have a good grasp of the hot sectors (healthcare, materials, aerospace, Energy). Do you have this portfolio online anywhere? It would be cool to add it to a site like stockpickr.com to let others view it/track it. By the way, check out ACAS today also, the last 20 mins of the day the volume suddenly spiked from like 8million shares to 18million shares, it was ridiculous. Probably related to the recent addition to the S&P 500, all the funds getting their piece. Ended the day up over 3% (up 10% over the last few days), and it crushed it's 50day sma, and broke through a key resistance level. Just the other day they paid out their dividend also, I got a free 1.12 shares or something. I heart this stock.

I'm tracking it on morningstar. Once I feel confident that I know what I'm doing I might consider investing some of my poker earnings in it, which are all currently getting around 5 percent in a BofA preferred money market. ACAS was one of my favorites as it's earnings are solid and it pays a sick dividend. I also added it hours before the announcement that it got added to the S&P, so that was nice. Among my other favorites were Hansen, which I think makes disgusting products but all my friends like it, and Valero, which is the only gas station I'll go to as it usually undercuts the competition by a few cents. It's weird to be getting into these energy stocks right now, as a lot of them are trading at 52 week highs, but it just feels that with oil maybe going to $90/barrel over the summer, there's still a lot of upside. And yeah, this job is mega cool. If you had asked me a month ago what i wanted to do when i graduated, I would have said I had no idea. No longer the case.

[Yoda 1]

Yea I am avoiding energy right now, I don't really know squat about the sector and don't want to get into it. Gas, Nat Gas, Liquid Gas, Oil, Crude Oil, Brent Crude, Drillers, Refiners, Explorers...it's too much crazyness and too volatile. There may be a lot of upside, there may not. But I'll stick to more stable markets.ING Direct is the way to go for any sitting around money. 4.5% for Savings. 5.15% for 6 month CD's, 5.25 for 9mo 5.35 for 12mo. And you usually get .1% rollover bonuses for renewing a CD. P.S. Geez - the volume on ACAS says 29 million now - I bet this gaps up again tomorrow. That's unprecedented volume for this stock, by far.

[gobears 0]

Roll on....S&P up 2% to 1531Russell up 2%NDX makes new multi-year highBest ETF: Ishares China (+6%)Worst ETF: Lehman 20 year Bond (-2%)Up Stock for the Week (Hilton Hotels - buyout offer ) +37%Down Stock for the Week (Parametric Tech - management cuts outlook....) -21%