stock market thread

[erac22 0]

To someone who knows:Help an investing noob. WTF made futures flip this morning in the last half hour before the open???edit: that's more like it, didn't take long for momentum to swing back around.

[Yoda 1]

To someone who knows:Help an investing noob. WTF made futures flip this morning in the last half hour before the open???edit: that's more like it, didn't take long for momentum to swing back around.

That was a very strange open, even the CNBC anchors were like zomgwtf? We are in super volatility mode I guess sometimes the futures are just flat out wrong.

[gobears 0]

S&P testing its 200d MA for the fourth time - now at 1449.Goldman Sachs (GS) needs to break above 189, but is fadingThere is some fear in the homebuilder sector as rumors of a bankruptcy has been dogging Beazer (BZH) Today - down 40% at one point Today.Bear Stearns (BSC) stopped redemptions at a third fund which was not leveraged and not really into sub-prime, that's another train wreck of a chartOnly seven sessions ago, we were near new highs in the markets - how things have turned? Obviously in hindsight, I wish that I had sold many of my positions seven days ago but coulda, woulda, shoulda....Haven't pulled the trigger on any new buys as I'm waiting for capitulation, buy despair, sell hope is a good motto. Still looking at getting into Akamai (AKAM) - if it gets to and can hold 30, looks like a good price to get in.

[Yoda 1]

It's a roller coaster day week. But I want to give a special high 5 to Garmin (GRMN) - Who whooped up earnings and raised their dividend. It is up big time today and has been a winner throughout this whole mess.

[erac22 0]

yoda, check out my post about last night's Mets game in the baseball forum. Tell me if I'm on target or being nitpicky.

[Yoda 1]

yoda, check out my post about last night's Mets game in the baseball forum. Tell me if I'm on target or being nitpicky.

Will do, last nights game pissed me off. Glavine pitched a gem and stupid Guillermo blew it.Side note: This market has to be crazy/fun times for day traders. These swings are nuts.

[WrongWay 0]

3+ weeks ago I put in the order to move my 401k money from stocks to treasuries. The next day, stocks down and treasuries up.. crap, the transactions hadn't happened yet. You may recall me saying I took a beating on that down day. Fortunatly, we got a dead cat bounce the next couple days and my transactions went off above where I'd put the order in.Since then, I've avoided the 5+% drop in stocks and the made more than that in the treasuries. My wife, who actually has more in her 401K that I do (her company matched $1 for $1 where the match at my last and current companies is only $.25) has assured me she had her funds in treasuries. I finally checked. NOPE!!! Managed bond fund. I checked the prespectus and they have everything from MBS and CDO to Corp Bonds and Asset Backed Securities. Fortunatly the fund also holds at least 10% cash reserves in money market and hadn't yet booked losses from the underlying bonds. Friday I put in the sell order. Yesterday it all moved to treasuries. I think we really dodged a bullet on that one.

[strategy 4]

3+ weeks ago I put in the order to move my 401k money from stocks to treasuries. The next day, stocks down and treasuries up.. crap, the transactions hadn't happened yet. You may recall me saying I took a beating on that down day. Fortunatly, we got a dead cat bounce the next couple days and my transactions went off above where I'd put the order in.Since then, I've avoided the 5+% drop in stocks and the made more than that in the treasuries. My wife, who actually has more in her 401K that I do (her company matched $1 for $1 where the match at my last and current companies is only $.25) has assured me she had her funds in treasuries. I finally checked. NOPE!!! Managed bond fund. I checked the prespectus and they have everything from MBS and CDO to Corp Bonds and Asset Backed Securities. Fortunatly the fund also holds at least 10% cash reserves in money market and hadn't yet booked losses from the underlying bonds. Friday I put in the sell order. Yesterday it all moved to treasuries. I think we really dodged a bullet on that one.

Do you talk about this stuff at dinner with your wife?

[erac22 0]

Take a look at valero (vlo). It just posted record profits and revenues, gasoline prices, although they've slacked in the past few weeks, look to be on the up and up, the company is trading at 7x earnings with not much debt, and the stock is getting absolutely hammered, down 7 percent today. It looks like it's going to close slightly above 62.2, it's 200 day MA, and the technical indicators seem to point to it being fairly oversold. Here's a chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/uiThoughts?

[WrongWay 0]

Do you talk about this stuff at dinner with your wife?

Sometimes. WOW, what a turn around at closing today. S&P turns from down 1% to up .75%. I'm just as shocked by that as I was shocked by the huge drop in the last hour of trading Tuesday. What the heck is goin' on????? 2% swings in the last hour of trading is just nuts.

[gobears 0]

Take a look at valero (vlo). It just posted record profits and revenues, gasoline prices, although they've slacked in the past few weeks, look to be on the up and up, the company is trading at 7x earnings with not much debt, and the stock is getting absolutely hammered, down 7 percent today. It looks like it's going to close slightly above 62.2, it's 200 day MA, and the technical indicators seem to point to it being fairly oversold. Here's a chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/uiThoughts?

Valero seems like a solid pick - there was a wall street 24/7 post that put the breakup value of the company around $60 when oil was at $60 so with oil higher now, it would seem to be undervalued. If the 200d MA doesn't hold, then the next level support looks to be around 48 based on a long term chart.It's been on my watch list for awhile but I never pulled the trigger

[erac22 0]

Take a look at Ace (ace), they're primarily in reinsurance. Fundamentals are superb, P/E is around 7, they have solid earnings and revenue growth, very little debt, pays a 2% yield, is trading at only 1.2x book value. It recently dropped below it's 200 day moving average, and the quickly popped back above it. It also just bounced off support of a long term (1 year) trend line. RSI is creeping back toward 50 after bottoming out at 20 a few weeks ago. Here's the graph: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui Thoughts?**also, quick question, when reading an options chart, the bid/ask prices are per share values? So if the Sept 21st call for strike price 55.00 is 5.60, the option costs $560? And thus, in order to make a profit, the price would have to rise above 60.60/share?

[Yoda 1]

I'd look Erac, but I just don't have enough cash to keep buying. My core holdings continue ripping higher when mother market isn't in the shitter. I would take some profits, and pick new winners, but hell, I see room to run in these still.I have over 40% gains in Garmin. 30% gains in PCP. 20% gains in PCU.I might cash in PCU on the next big up day, they are very volatile with this strike looming.Edit: Oh, and lets not forget TGB and my 60% gains.

[erac22 0]

I'd look Erac, but I just don't have enough cash to keep buying. My core holdings continue ripping higher when mother market isn't in the shitter. I would take some profits, and pick new winners, but hell, I see room to run in these still.I have over 40% gains in Garmin. 30% gains in PCP. 20% gains in PCU.I might cash in PCU on the next big up day, they are very volatile with this strike looming.Edit: Oh, and lets not forget TGB and my 60% gains.

Yeah, I think it's time to sell PCU, it's had a great run and starting last week all the technical indicators had it at being overbought. It's going to flirt with it's 50 day moving avg, which is also right near a mid-term trend line. I like selling some of the position now, and maybe snapping it back up if it bounces off the 50MA. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/uialso, just noticed that volum on down days has been much higher than on up days lately, very bearish signal.

[gobears 0]

Take a look at Ace (ace), they're primarily in reinsurance. Fundamentals are superb, P/E is around 7, they have solid earnings and revenue growth, very little debt, pays a 2% yield, is trading at only 1.2x book value. It recently dropped below it's 200 day moving average, and the quickly popped back above it. It also just bounced off support of a long term (1 year) trend line. RSI is creeping back toward 50 after bottoming out at 20 a few weeks ago. Here's the graph: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui Thoughts?**also, quick question, when reading an options chart, the bid/ask prices are per share values? So if the Sept 21st call for strike price 55.00 is 5.60, the option costs $560? And thus, in order to make a profit, the price would have to rise above 60.60/share?

That is correct on the options - each option controls 100 shares of stock so $5.60*100=$560. Breakeven price would then be $55+$5.60=$60.60 not taking into account transaction fees.Not sure on Ace, I stay away from insurance/reinsurance companies mainly due to the difficulty in understanding their financials.

[gobears 0]

Pulled the trigger on Akamai Today (AKAM) - Activision (ATVI) and Jones Soda (JSDA) report after the bell so I'm crossing my fingers...

[Yoda 1]

Pulled the trigger on Akamai Today (AKAM) - Activision (ATVI) and Jones Soda (JSDA) report after the bell so I'm crossing my fingers...

You bought Jones BEFORE the earnings? Ouch dude. Hope it was a small position. I thought we all agreed they were gonna suck and buy AFTER the earnings.

[gobears 0]

You bought Jones BEFORE the earnings? Ouch dude. Hope it was a small position. I thought we all agreed they were gonna suck and buy AFTER the earnings.

Nah - I've had it since the last earnings - obviously I bought one earnings report too soon. Mushroom clouded again!

[Yoda 1]

That sucks, I think I want to sell PCU until this strike is clear and buy JSDA in the 11's. PCU should still go up but JSDA has the potential for bigger returns IMO. I can't sell Garmin or PCP, they are on fire. Up again on a down day.

[Yoda 1]

I pulled that trigger...Sold 17 PCU @ 106.08 for a 20% gain.Purchased 150 JSDA at 11.98.

[erac22 0]

I woulda waited on JSDA, I think 8 is a better spot to get in just looking at the graph. They're trading at a forward p/e of 33 which is way high for a beverage company. I do like that they have almost no debt/enourmouse earnings growth, and 35% of the float is short. I currently have Hansen natural in my model portfolio rather than jsda. Also a buyout target and trading at a forward P/E of 20.

[Yoda 1]

I woulda waited on JSDA, I think 8 is a better spot to get in just looking at the graph. They're trading at a forward p/e of 33 which is way high for a beverage company. I do like that they have almost no debt/enourmouse earnings growth, and 35% of the float is short. I currently have Hansen natural in my model portfolio rather than jsda. Also a buyout target and trading at a forward P/E of 20.

You can't really use p/e on Jones, it's always traded on growth prospects. Kind of like Under Armour, you could've bought it at $40 with a 65 p/e and here it is today in the mid 60's.Jones went down big because their cans distribution got delayed. This quarter will be better and it will go higher on speculation alone.Also, I'm not sure why, but nobody has mentioned that football season is going to increase their sales ridiculously. Remember their exlusive deal with the seahawks? All soda in the entire stadium being sold at i'm sure ridiculous prices? Well it's preseason football time...I don't think it see's 10 let alone 8 unless some kind of ridiculously bad press surfaces.

[WrongWay 0]

Mortgage market is truely locked up now, particularly for loans through 3rd party brokers. Rates on 30-year Jumbo that was originated 3rd party up more than 1% from last week. Slices under AAA on Alt-A simply not resellable at all. Pop goes the housing bubble.

[Yoda 1]

Wow, Garmin just blew right through $100/share. This was definitely my stock pick of the year as I identified it at $61 just 2 months ago.

[erac22 0]

Wow, Garmin just blew right through $100/share. This was definitely my stock pick of the year as I identified it at $61 just 2 months ago.

Will you be taking profits on that soon? Chart kinda looks like a Bump and Run Reversal pattern candidate (as does PCU, I think this was a good time to dump it)