gobears 0 Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 I do not understand your investment strategies... like, at all. Do you do any long term stuff? Which by the sound of things would be at least a month or so.My long term holds currently are APT, ARRS, BBD, BRCM, ININ, LCI, ODP, PRE.TO, WPT.TO, RVBD, UXG and RBY. That's about 1/3, as 2/3 is in cash right now. I currently use the 50d EMA and trend lines as mental stops so my cash position has grown as many of my old positions have hit their stops.The earning plays like the one above are a small piece.My 401K/529's are fully invested in mutual funds. Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 got enough tech stocks there andre?looking at UXG or RBY as potentially the next thing to put my brother in. leaning toward RBY, what do you think? Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 got enough tech stocks there andre?looking at UXG or RBY as potentially the next thing to put my brother in. leaning toward RBY, what do you think?I like RBY more than UXG. RBY has a great chart and is pulling back on low volume. Pretty far above the 50d MA though - if you look at the past, the 50d has been a good spot to pick up shares.Pure exploration company, good drilling results lately, great pedigree with Rob McEwen (of Goldcorp fame) owning a ton of its shares. Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Bought the CSE Jan 2011 Calls (Strike Price of 5) for $1.67 on a Fil Zucchi article. Stock is currently at $4.7. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Die CRE DieeeeeeeeeeeeeISHARE DJ R EST INX (NYSEArca: IYR)Last Trade: 29.93Trade Time: 4:00pm ETChange: Down 0.49 (1.61%)Pretty good for a slightly up day in the market! Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted July 14, 2009 Share Posted July 14, 2009 What are the investment sites you guys use?I find seeking alpha to be great. Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted July 14, 2009 Share Posted July 14, 2009 What are the investment sites you guys use?I find seeking alpha to be great.I like Seeking Alpha although you have to watch out the folks just pumping up their own holdings. I peruse the sites belowhttp://paul.kedrosky.com/http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/http://jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com/http://www.footnoted.org/http://www.minyanville.com/http://stocksbelowncav.blogspot.com/http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/http://adamsoptions.blogspot.com/http://microcapspeculator.net/http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted July 14, 2009 Share Posted July 14, 2009 I use www.smartmoney.com all the time for mutual funds. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted July 14, 2009 Share Posted July 14, 2009 I think i've shared it before, but http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/Don't know of a single more entertaining financial blog site. "The Fly" is the main guy but there are other very good bloggers on there as well. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 20, 2009 Share Posted July 20, 2009 Hey does anyone have a take on City Center Project? One huge mistake or chance to be the next big thing on the strip?MGM- along with the other casino stocks have gotten crushed.Anyone have a take?ThanksJoe Link to post Share on other sites
grocery_mony 8 Posted July 20, 2009 Share Posted July 20, 2009 Hey does anyone have a take on City Center Project? One huge mistake or chance to be the next big thing on the strip?MGM- along with the other casino stocks have gotten crushed.Anyone have a take?ThanksJoeToo ambitous a project for a all at once build out. Having to sell 4000 high priced condos in this market is going to be so hard. It sounds like they have been cutting corners too so there may be some bigger problems around the corner. They had to cut off something like 20 floors on one of the towers due to the grade of steel they were using. I think something like 16 workers have been killed on the project to date. They sound like their going to keep all of their Vegas assets intact(with the exception of TI which is not that big a loss) so thats some good news Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted July 20, 2009 Share Posted July 20, 2009 Hey does anyone have a take on City Center Project? One huge mistake or chance to be the next big thing on the strip?MGM- along with the other casino stocks have gotten crushed.Anyone have a take?ThanksJoeHere's a thread on it from the city-data forum. Also from other messages that I've read, most people are negative on its prospects as an investment.City Center Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted July 21, 2009 Share Posted July 21, 2009 Went short on IAT (Regional Bank ETF) at 16.86 - Mental Stop at 17.50Bought SRS (Ultra short Real Estate) at 18.2 - Mental Stop at 17.75 Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 Went short on IAT (Regional Bank ETF) at 16.86 - Mental Stop at 17.50Bought SRS (Ultra short Real Estate) at 18.2 - Mental Stop at 17.75Damn yo i'm gonna start betting against all your trades! Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 Damn yo i'm gonna start betting against all your trades! Ya - stopped out of both positions so you're safe to enter now since I'm sure I'll be whipsawed again! Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 buying MSFT tomorrow if I can get my brother to reload.made a nice chunk of change today so I don't think it'll be too tough to convince himalthough he is an apple fanboy...... Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 buying MSFT tomorrow if I can get my brother to reload.made a nice chunk of change today so I don't think it'll be too tough to convince himalthough he is an apple fanboy......If he needs any encouragment, tell him gobears is shorting MSFT.if that doesn't convinvce him to buy, then I think he hates money Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted July 23, 2009 Share Posted July 23, 2009 If he needs any encouragment, tell him gobears is shorting MSFT.if that doesn't convinvce him to buy, then I think he hates moneytoday was a bad day for andreI get the impression he has many more good days than bad. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 natural gas. Historically, natural gas in the 90's and very early 2000's ran in the $2 - $3 range (that's in dallars per MMBtu). Then, it steadily increased that last few years until it reached over $15. It has steadily dropped. First, it dropped with oil. But, when oil started to recover, natural gas kept dropping. Today, it ended at $3.78, which is actually up from it's low a couple of weeks ago around $3.Here's the plus & minus summary:Reasons to go down:Huge supplies available in the U.S. -- much of it discovered in the last two years. We have enough in the U.S. & Canada to prevent any real need for importing for a very long time.Reasons to go up: 1) Cleaner than coal, so new regulations may promote natural gas2) Oil-to-natural gas ratio normally stabilizes around 8:1 due to comparable cost of energy. Currently, the ratio is approaching 20:1. In the long run, big energy users move to the cheapest source. For example, natural gas trucks & buses are experiencing huge sales growth.3) Drilling rigs are not cost effective at the current. Most sources say even the most efficient wells are only worth installing a drilling rig for prices about $5 - $6. This is projected to become a possible issue this winter, and a definite problem by next winter.Here are some articles related to natural gas: http://seekingalpha.com/article/149421-ene...lly-interestinghttp://seekingalpha.com/article/147999-nat...own-but-not-outhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/143167-nat...-next-big-thinghttp://seekingalpha.com/article/148885-coa...-win-the-battlehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/147829-com...and-natural-gashttp://seekingalpha.com/article/147852-nat...eeps-going-downSo, how do we invest. Here are some options as I see it:UNGPerhaps the easiest and purest natural gas play. This is an ETF that simply invests in natural gas futures. You can trade options in UNG as well (another ETF is GAZ, but it does not have options). Normally this would be my number one choice (and in fact, I started investing in UNG just two weeks ago). But, here's the problem: the Obama adminstration is blaming "speculators" for the oil & commodity bubble and wants to regulate it. In particular, Obama is targetting USO (oil) and UNG (natural gas). Depending on how he implements regulations, these could be forced to liquidate quickly, resulting in huge ETF losses. UNG typically trades about 3.65 x natural gas price, and closed today around $13.80. Here is how I would invest in UNG:1) If you fear Obama, buy options .. limits down side (except, of course, you could lose all of your option investment), but still benefits from the up side.2). If you want time on your side, sell UNG puts. I would suggest selling puts at strike prices between $20 - $30. This is what I have done.CHK / SWNThese are two natural gas exploration & production companies in the U.S. I have owned SWN in the past. CHK is about 60% below its 2008 high. Both would benefit greatly from natural gas price increases, and both are profitable now (sort of). CHK has an operational profit of about $2 / share (PE ratio of 10), but that was offset by non-operational transactions that turned them to a loss. Three ways to invest, in my order of preference: 1) sell puts with strike price about double current price, 2) buy options, strike price debatable, or 3) buy the stock. Advantages of buying U.S. stock: avoid the possible pitfalls of Obama commodities regulation policies. Disadvantages of buying U.S. stock: they likely face increased taxes and regulations from the Obama administration.PWE / PGH / PVX / DAYYF.PKI expect one of these will become my favorite choice. These are Canadian natural gas companies. They provide several advantages over U.S. options: 1) hedge against the dollar -- as commodity prices increase, the Canadian dollar tends to go up, 2) Obama's commodity / futures regulations will have less effect in Canada, and 3) Canadian companies will gain a competitive advantage as Obama increases taxes & regulations on U.S. companies.I have not yet reviewed these companies to give any advice on specific choices. Again, my preferences, in order, will likely be 1) sell puts, 2) buy options, 3) buy stock. But, if they pay a significant dividend, I would move "buy stock" to the front.One last thought ... there is another advantage to buying company stock. If you own stock for more than 1 year, you can give away the stock as charitable contributions and avoid the capital gains tax for good (assuming this law is not changed). If you give much away to churches, you may want to put some money in one of these stocks for a longer-term hold. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 natural gas. Historically, natural gas in the 90's and very early 2000's ran in the $2 - $3 range (that's in dallars per MMBtu). Then, it steadily increased that last few years until it reached over $15. It has steadily dropped. First, it dropped with oil. But, when oil started to recover, natural gas kept dropping. Today, it ended at $3.78, which is actually up from it's low a couple of weeks ago around $3.Here's the plus & minus summary:Reasons to go down:Huge supplies available in the U.S. -- much of it discovered in the last two years. We have enough in the U.S. & Canada to prevent any real need for importing for a very long time.Reasons to go up: 1) Cleaner than coal, so new regulations may promote natural gas2) Oil-to-natural gas ratio normally stabilizes around 8:1 due to comparable cost of energy. Currently, the ratio is approaching 20:1. In the long run, big energy users move to the cheapest source. For example, natural gas trucks & buses are experiencing huge sales growth.3) Drilling rigs are not cost effective at the current. Most sources say even the most efficient wells are only worth installing a drilling rig for prices about $5 - $6. This is projected to become a possible issue this winter, and a definite problem by next winter.Here are some articles related to natural gas: http://seekingalpha.com/article/149421-ene...lly-interestinghttp://seekingalpha.com/article/147999-nat...own-but-not-outhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/143167-nat...-next-big-thinghttp://seekingalpha.com/article/148885-coa...-win-the-battlehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/147829-com...and-natural-gashttp://seekingalpha.com/article/147852-nat...eeps-going-downSo, how do we invest. Here are some options as I see it:UNGPerhaps the easiest and purest natural gas play. This is an ETF that simply invests in natural gas futures. You can trade options in UNG as well (another ETF is GAZ, but it does not have options). Normally this would be my number one choice (and in fact, I started investing in UNG just two weeks ago). But, here's the problem: the Obama adminstration is blaming "speculators" for the oil & commodity bubble and wants to regulate it. In particular, Obama is targetting USO (oil) and UNG (natural gas). Depending on how he implements regulations, these could be forced to liquidate quickly, resulting in huge ETF losses. UNG typically trades about 3.65 x natural gas price, and closed today around $13.80. Here is how I would invest in UNG:1) If you fear Obama, buy options .. limits down side (except, of course, you could lose all of your option investment), but still benefits from the up side.2). If you want time on your side, sell UNG puts. I would suggest selling puts at strike prices between $20 - $30. This is what I have done.CHK / SWNThese are two natural gas exploration & production companies in the U.S. I have owned SWN in the past. CHK is about 60% below its 2008 high. Both would benefit greatly from natural gas price increases, and both are profitable now (sort of). CHK has an operational profit of about $2 / share (PE ratio of 10), but that was offset by non-operational transactions that turned them to a loss. Three ways to invest, in my order of preference: 1) sell puts with strike price about double current price, 2) buy options, strike price debatable, or 3) buy the stock. Advantages of buying U.S. stock: avoid the possible pitfalls of Obama commodities regulation policies. Disadvantages of buying U.S. stock: they likely face increased taxes and regulations from the Obama administration.PWE / PGH / PVX / DAYYF.PKI expect one of these will become my favorite choice. These are Canadian natural gas companies. They provide several advantages over U.S. options: 1) hedge against the dollar -- as commodity prices increase, the Canadian dollar tends to go up, 2) Obama's commodity / futures regulations will have less effect in Canada, and 3) Canadian companies will gain a competitive advantage as Obama increases taxes & regulations on U.S. companies.I have not yet reviewed these companies to give any advice on specific choices. Again, my preferences, in order, will likely be 1) sell puts, 2) buy options, 3) buy stock. But, if they pay a significant dividend, I would move "buy stock" to the front.One last thought ... there is another advantage to buying company stock. If you own stock for more than 1 year, you can give away the stock as charitable contributions and avoid the capital gains tax for good (assuming this law is not changed). If you give much away to churches, you may want to put some money in one of these stocks for a longer-term hold.Read my mind, I was thinking Natty Gas / UNG this week - but I noticed it came up too far from the bottom and wanted a solid drop. Today was a solid drop, so now I might start legging in. Haven't figured out entry points yet but I like this play big time going into the peak of hurricane season. There WILL be jumps. Guaranteed. Link to post Share on other sites
Dratj 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 So, are you guys rich yet?All i can say is that since I stopped trading, my life has had less stress lol. Trading stocks can consume so much of your time after work. Hope you are all doing well. esp Yoda Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 today was a bad day for andreI get the impression he has many more good days than bad.Couldn't remotely possibly be worse than me.I had my wife sell all her starbucks shares...TuesdayWed..up 17% all day Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 So, are you guys rich yet?All i can say is that since I stopped trading, my life has had less stress lol. Trading stocks can consume so much of your time after work. Hope you are all doing well. esp Yoda Wifey had our first kid in late March, so I really haven't had as much free time lately! I started trading less and less and started throwing most of my money into the longer term stuff that I like. I have had a ton in High Yield Corp Bonds which has been great. Link to post Share on other sites
revhq2646 0 Posted July 24, 2009 Share Posted July 24, 2009 Thanks for the detailed thought process on natural gas, but it raises a few questions for me. I have just started playing with options and am admittedly overwhelmed by all the different choices when setting up a trade. My questions really have nothing to do with natural gas, but in how do you decide how to capitalize on a forcasted move up in any assest. What is the advantage of selling deep in the money puts? These have almost no intrinsic value so you get very little value for time decay and your profit is entirely derived from the stock going up, but as the stock goes up you actually gain intrinsict vaule as the the delta falls so if the stock went up 5 points your puts would only decay say 4 points. So you would be better off buying the underlying stock no? The deep in the money calls make more sence to me as the OCT 9 Calls are can be had for $4.70 now at a delta of .9 so I get 9 for every 10 ticks up and only have to front $4.70 to control a $13.38 stock, and if Barak nationalizes oil tomorrow I only lose $4.70. (Of course if I had sold the Puts and the stock stops trading I walk away with a windfall, but we are not really counting on that now are we). Thanks, Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Thoughts on the new Naked Short selling ban? Link to post Share on other sites
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