izmet fekali and a new theory of poker

[UnionGuy 0]

Does anyone know anything about Eastern European player Izmet Fekali? Also called DERB (Doesn’t Ever Run Bad) in some poker forums. There is an ongoing discussion on Two Plus Two about a small cadre of poker players that seem to be studying under him. They have been beating up the biggest online games at the highest limits for a long time. The key is that their playing style is incredibly loose and many feel it can’t be a winner long-term. However, over something like 200k hands, it appears that a player with this style is the biggest long-term winner in high stakes online poker. Something like 3bb/100 at the 30/60 and up.There are three basic theories. The first is that somehow he is cheating. The second is that he is incredibly lucky. The third, and most interesting to me, is that Fekali and players around him have discovered an alternative theoretical model for poker that flies in the face of traditional TAG style playing.Anyone on FCP have anything to add?

[DrZebra 0]

http://slicer.headsupclub.com:3455/16/24

[DrZebra 0]

Examine your motives for playing. Some people play for money, some for fun, some for the excitement, some for the punishment. These are all valid reasons to play poker. Respect the losers, they have their own reasons for playing. They are usually getting what they need from the game. It's OK to be a loser if that is what you need (I'm not speaking with tongue-in-cheek here, this is a fact. Self punishment is the underlying reason for most weird behavior in life). If so, be a loser in moderation. Know yourself, play within your means, be aware of your motives. Have fun at the tables, there's not much point in doing anything if it's not fun, IMHO. Build a bankroll. Treat it as a funny money. Have enough to withstand challenges of fate. Do not spend the winnings. After a while, if the game is good to you, buy yourself something out of the bankroll. A shiny gambler's watch maybe. A little token of pride. A mark of achievement. You will feel good about yourself, that's never a bad thing. Think about the game. Listen to pros, listen to losers. You can learn both ways. Make your own opinions. Make your own mistakes. Re-evaluate. Post. State your opinions. Ask. Comment. Disagree. Be comfortable at the tables at all times. If not, leave. The game of poker never breaks it just suspends for a moment. You can return whenever you are ready again. Take a fresh start. Maybe a kiss from a woman in love is all you need to come back with a vengeance. There are no blinds to worry about when away from the tables. Be gracious at the tables. Win with flair, lose with style. Have pride, have strength. Do not steam, cuss, offend, whine, cheat, grunt or sneer. Do not masturbate. I've seen that too. Be happy if you break about even after a few months. You proved yourself better than most, you have beaten the house. Not everybody can. That's off the top of my head. Have fun and learn. I hope you'll be giving me advice soon. -- Izmet Fekali Burek Experts Ltd. Catering the World since 1389!

[screech 0]

I've been thinking a lot about this lately after reading the 2+2 threads.I think it's a combination of things:1) Very good postflop skills2) The impression of being laggier than you really are. This can be accomplished by making pf raises with hands that don't really warrant it,but still aren't in that bad shape if they're called or raised. He may also cold call raises with hands that have slightly -EV such as 98s. Also, throwing in 3-bets on the turn every now and again with slightly the worst of it. This doesn't cost too much at all.3) Because of 2, players will loosen they're pf standards against you. This in effect closes shortens the head start that most of these players would be getting if they played their 'normal' game.4) Because of 2, opponents tend to play back at him more then their cards dictate they should because of the lag image he has established. This means he gets paid off huge when he has the best hand.5) He simply runs over the weaker players. This allows him too LAG up his stats a bit more, futher creating the impression that he is far laggier than he really is, which in turn generates bigger payoffs from the average players.6) Some players just can't adjust to his style. It's different, they don't encounter it often. On the other hand, he has the advantage of always playing against TAGs, so he can adapt easier. It's almost like how a southpaw has an edge in the boxing ring.That's all I can think of now. I think the key is his tremendous post flop skills and understanding of how his play affects everyone else around him.

[DrZebra 0]

In a recent session I was on the wrong end of set-over-set when the flop came. I flopped a set of queens, to a board of: King, Queen, Seven - with two clubs. Five of us capped it on the flop; I was absolutely certain I had the best hand since I had put in the second (and last) raise pre-flop and the holder of "KK" was a very aggressive player whom I was sure would have capped it with "AA", "KK", - probably even with "AKs". When a blank fell on the turn and he NOW decided to cap it, I was 99% sure of what he had. I called on the basis of the 1% I was wrong, and the fact that the fourth Queen would put the flush out giving me excellent implied odds. (Looking back, I may have even been getting 45-1 without future bets; it was a BIG pot.) Of course the Queen landed on the river. I checked, the Ace high flush bet, "KK" raised, sevens full and another flush just called. When it got back to me, I three-bet it; I got paid off by everyone EXCEPT "KK", who flashed me his hand before he mucked it. There were well over 50 big bets in the pot and he wouldn't pay one more bet to see it to the end - and his call would have almost certainly closed the action; this was no group of rocket scientists, but even they knew they were beaten - none of them were about to cap the betting. In order for this to be a good laydown on his part, he would have to be more than 98% sure that he was beaten. Looking at it from his perspective, he figured to win this hand approximately one time in a thousand. IMO, and I am not a fan of laying down big hands on the river for one more bet in huge pots, I don't think he could win it that often. P.S. Having said all that, I would have probably paid off; perhaps the day will come when I will be able to make such a laydowny, but it hasn't come yet. It doesn't really matter how good your hand is, or the size of the pot. Sometimes even second nut isn't worth one more bet. Just my opinion, J-D --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts Posted By: Izmet Fekali Date: Sunday, 26 November 2000, at 7:02 a.m. In Response To: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts (J-D) J-D writes: > perhaps the day will come when I will be able to make such a laydowny Aaaarghh!!! Someday you will make such a fold, it will be a good one and you will be happy. You will be able to afford a shrimp cocktail at Binions with the saved bet and maybe even treat a friend. Feeling like a champ, you will do it again someday. But, this time a guy with Q2s will drag your pot, buy the cocktail waitress a fur coat and **** her blue for a week. Now which guy do you want to be? The smart one with the shrimp cocktail or the stupid one with the sore dick? From an old Albanian song: "I was told by David Duchowny ya' won't get rich by good laydowny!" -- Izmet Fekali (I have a filthy mouth, Mason, please bear with me...) Burek Experts Ltd. Catering the World Since 1389! Albania, Slovenia, Europe --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts Posted By: David Sklansky Date: Sunday, 26 November 2000, at 1:01 p.m. In Response To: Re: To skp: re. flat call w/2nd nuts (Izmet Fekali) Unfortunately, when I wrote my Eight Mistakes In Poker and contrasted the mistake of folding when you should call with its opposite number, I did not have Izmet's explanation available to me. It will be included in my next edition. David Sklansky

[screech 0]

Unfortunately, when I wrote my Eight Mistakes In Poker and contrasted the mistake of folding when you should call with its opposite number, I did not have Izmet's explanation available to me. It will be included in my next edition.  David Sklansky

Strange,David inquired about this DERB guy in a recent 2+2 thread. He had no idea who he was.

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

Sounds like quite a character.Anyone have the 2+2 threads handy?

[screech 0]

Here:http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat...e=6#Post2300851There are a couple other threads on the first page of the mid/high stakes forum where sklansky iquires about this guy.

[DrZebra 0]

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that "izmet fekali" and "abdul jalib" were pen-names for characters who needn't have their identities revealed.

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

Here:http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat...e=6#Post2300851There are a couple other threads on the first page of the mid/high stakes forum where sklansky iquires about this guy.

I just read the first 20 or so pages of that thread and all I gotta say is wow.It must drive those math guys CRAZY not being able to know!

[DrZebra 0]

if you read his website, his philosophy is strongly rooted in mathematics and running simulations in multi-way pots. as screech said though, he can only do it because his post-flop play is perfect.

[Two_Stepper 0]

if you read his website, his philosophy is strongly rooted in mathematics and running simulations in multi-way pots. as screech said though, he can only do it because his post-flop play is perfect.

Do you have the URL for his website?2Step

[LuckyMcCatcher 0]

Its very freaky, though I believe it could be possible. I have been following thes threads and noted a couple of good points by respected posters @ 2+2.A. Meta game strategies develop that throw the current winning trend out of wack. I.e. High limit players observe what works and mimic it. Well when there is trend developing a counter strategy will often disrupt that trend until people catch on to the counter strategy and start using it. I think Derb may have found a strategy that counters the TAG style developed and followed religously by 2+2. It was also mentioned that because he is so laggy (known to 3 bet turn w/ A high) that he forces players to cap w/ middle pair when he is holding the nuts. B. Players say he is very good at adjusting to others and also that he is an excellent hand reader.C. Apparently this Slovenian group has been killing online poker since its inception. Players on 2+2 recall another Slovenian (Angelina) tearing up the 20/40 Paradise game back in 2000 and '01 when it was the biggest around.D. Expect these types of discoveries in online poker. It is like a science and will be cyclical. People will conform to the style that gets the money until somebody develops a counter to that style and around and around we go.

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

C. Apparently this Slovenian group has been killing online poker since its inception. Players on 2+2 recall another Slovenian (Angelina) tearing up the 20/40 Paradise game back in 2000 and '01 when it was the biggest around.

That's mind-bogglingly disgusting.

[screech 0]

C. Apparently this Slovenian group has been killing online poker since its inception. Players on 2+2 recall another Slovenian (Angelina) tearing up the 20/40 Paradise game back in 2000 and '01 when it was the biggest around.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Angelina his sister?

[LuckyMcCatcher 0]

C. Apparently this Slovenian group has been killing online poker since its inception. Players on 2+2 recall another Slovenian (Angelina) tearing up the 20/40 Paradise game back in 2000 and '01 when it was the biggest around.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Angelina his sister?

Not positive, but sounds right. Check 2+2, they are certainly connected somehow.

[DrZebra 0]

she goes by angelina fekali, but again, i wouldn't be surprised to hear these were all aliases. (since ds claims to not know izmet)

[LuckyMcCatcher 0]

she goes by angelina fekali, but again, i wouldn't be surprised to hear these were all aliases. (since ds claims to not know izmet)

DS is off in his own little world. Wouldnt be suprised if he claimed he didnt know Mason. He is out of touch w/ the modern poker scene. In this thread he said not to post hand histories, because he is not used to reading them.

[LuckyMcCatcher 0]

Also anybody notice that if this style is legit than if it wasnt for pokertracker everyone would just assume these guys were just rich fish, and they would loot these games rampantly w/o even being noticed. People in the Party 30, 50 and 100 games w/ Pokertracker boggled by this guys stats. I saw a guy in the Party 30 yesterday whose sn was: DerbsACheat.

[screech 0]

Also anybody notice that if this style is legit than if it wasnt for pokertracker everyone would just assume these guys were just rich fish, and they would loot these games rampantly w/o even being noticed. People in the Party 30, 50 and 100 games w/ Pokertracker boggled by this guys stats. I saw a guy in the Party 30 yesterday whose sn was: DerbsACheat.

Again, I think he's using PT stats to enhance his LAG image. Those cold calls with hands that may be dominated really drive up his PFR%. I'd say he also raises a bit more in position and what not, just to drive up his pt stats so people think he's a maniac.You hear a million stories about people talking about how he 3-bets the turn with garbage, etc. But he only has to do that once or twice a session for that image to stick. The more extreme something is, the more people remember it/overexaggerate it. Also, I'm sure he picks his spots to make these seemingly bizarre plays. Maybe when he thinks there's at least some chance they will succeed, or maybe shortly after some new opponents join the game.

[Sushiman 0]

I just came across the thread a couple of days ago, and found DERB fascinating as well. I think people who say his post flop play is perfect are wrong. There were numerous hand histories posted where his aggression and his overcalls were hideous, although it is the concensus that he is excellent at saving one extra bet on the river.Frankly, I do not believe he has found an alternative way to win, as 2+2ers have compared thier PT stats and he is a donator to a number of the respected regulars in the 30/60 game. Since he is losing to the more flexible players, he has to be absolutely destroying the weaker ones, most likely the tight players who never adjust to his aggression.

[LuckyMcCatcher 0]

Also anybody notice that if this style is legit than if it wasnt for pokertracker everyone would just assume these guys were just rich fish, and they would loot these games rampantly w/o even being noticed. People in the Party 30, 50 and 100 games w/ Pokertracker boggled by this guys stats. I saw a guy in the Party 30 yesterday whose sn was: DerbsACheat.

Again, I think he's using PT stats to enhance his LAG image. Those cold calls with hands that may be dominated really drive up his PFR%. I'd say he also raises a bit more in position and what not, just to drive up his pt stats so people think he's a maniac.You hear a million stories about people talking about how he 3-bets the turn with garbage, etc. But he only has to do that once or twice a session for that image to stick. The more extreme something is, the more people remember it/overexaggerate it. Also, I'm sure he picks his spots to make these seemingly bizarre plays. Maybe when he thinks there's at least some chance they will succeed, or maybe shortly after some new opponents join the game.

True, but his vpip is consistently high for this game, which I think is probably the most fascinating stat. He has been tracked at anywhere from 25 t0 30 and these are tough games. Its not the fact that he is a winner with this vpip, its that he is a 3bb/100 winner over 200k hands.

[Mattnxtc 0]

anybody have his website?

[DrZebra 0]

http://slicer.headsupclub.com:3455/16/24

http://slicer.headsupclub.com:3455/16/home

[Mattnxtc 0]

dude is really pretty fascinating...what it looks like he has done is that him or a group has run thousands of sim hands to find out the very best possible move for different positions. He seems to strongly support the idea that poker is very situational and that a move that doesnt look right is infact right.also seems that he relies heavily on position and being superior post flop against fish and just crazy/maniac against good players