folding when your 90% sure your tied in pl...

[Nelson 0]

Discussed this topic over at wptfan.com but I was hoping to get Daniel's insight on this type of situation and see if he agrees with the risk vs reward situation.I'm in Early MP with 8-9 of diamonds in a $2/$5 PL Hold'em game. I limp in (game has been kinda passive so far...very few pre-flop raises) since we are 8 handed and I don't want to get cute yet. 4 players see the flop.Flop: 7d 7c 8sI'm not wild about this flop but i'm going to bet it when it gets to me but the BB comes out first with a $20 bet into a $20 pot. I ponder raising but just call to see what everyone else is at. Rest of the field folds.Turn is a 7hBB comes out with a pot bet of $65. What do you do? Well, I folded but said, I think we're tied but you can have it. He showed K-8.Logic of my fold:This player is fairly new to poker (less than 6 months) but has read some books and has played a lot of hands online and live in his club game. He doesn't look overly nervous at this point and i'm 90% sure he doesn't have the last 7. He would have raised with AA to 10-10 pre-flop. So...10% chance he has the last 7We each have 3 outs to make a bigger boat (my 9 vs his K)So roughly,9% of the time. I hit my 3 outer and win a net +100 +river bet = +20010% of the time he has 9-9/8-8 or the last 7 = -2009% of the time he hits his 3 outer = -20072% of the time we split = +8 (after rake)SO...is their a valid reason to risk $165 more into a pot with only $10 of dead money with only a 9% chance to win a big pot, a 19% chance to lose a big pot, and a 72% chance of just getting a few chips to tip the dealer with?Opinions?

[DwayneWayne 0]

Raise the Flop $20 more. Take the lead, you have position in the hand. Use it. It will help with the other streets....ie Turn.

[DwayneWayne 0]

As for the Turn fold....you put him on an 8 right? so call.....

[Nelson 0]

The idea of raising the flop bet is interesting but with 2 to act after me (both of which are able to limp with 99 to QQ) I felt it was too risky. Once the field was narrowed on the turn, I put him on the 8 (the $65 pot bet sealed it for me).I think I made a passive fold on the turn. I figured we were tied but didn't want to "just call it down because we are tied". I probably should have raised the turn to try to win (he would have called being too weak to fold his boat). If he hit his King on the river, i'd be screwed. If he had the 7, he would have smooth called the turn and potted the river.So again.... is it worth playing this hand "hard" when 72% of the time we are going to be chopping up $10 of dead money and 29% of the time I lose?

[Guest]

I'm not sure on your numbers there. The way that hand went down, If I thought he had an 8, and I held an 8, there is no way I would have folded. My opinion: You put him on an 8, the chance of his kicker dropping is insignificant. You should have raised, and if not raised, at least called.Edit: Don't forget the % chance he was betting an ace or on a complete bluff. You wrote that you pondered raising but "called to find out where everyone else was at." This is your key mistake. You raise to find out where people were at, not call.

[jayboogie 0]

you played it passively and gave up control when you had position. Raising on the flop would have made sense to get out the chasing hand possibilities such as 2 overcards higher than 8. Also, when he bets the turn, you call if you put him on an 8. If he has an 8, he likely checks the river where you can check along as well and chop the pot. I would not bet the river with a board like this is I was in your opponents position, would make no sense to do so, your either chopping the pot or your going to raise him and he's beat by quads or a better fullhouse.

[Guest XXEddie]

you figured he had the 8......an 8 gives you a split....why do you fold10% chance he has the last 7 you really have to look at it this way, he either has the 7 or he doesnt its not 1/10 its 1/2

[ghoti7four 0]

okay, you limped in in less than great position with 8-9d... its not an awful hand and not an awful play but you have to ask yourself what type of flop you want to see.flop comes, 7 7 8this is one of the flops you want to see--granted you have to worry about at least another 7 with everyone limping but short of that, (and the remote chance that someone with a pocket pair higher than 8's limped in) this flop is great for you! what are you looking for... 5d,6d,7d?anyway the raise from early position would probably scare me off, but I'm kind of a puss so that has little to do with it. I can see the logic of raising to maintain your control over the hand, but again I'd probably have folded anyway, but given that you call we'll move on.the turn comes 7h.... I know there are some other hands which scare you but... seriously, who has a higher pocket pair at this point? and how, given the fact that your play up to this point has been less than tight, do you justify folding a fullhouse (which is the type of unexpected hand you want to have when you play 8-9d) to the chance that the other guy has a seven?????? it doesn't make sense to me.-on the other hand, if I were playing that hand I know the whole time I'd be sweating and crying saying over and over to myself--I know he has quads, oh god why! why god! why does he have quads!!!! bastard universe! WHY!so you know--I guess its only obvious in hindsight

[Nelson 0]

Wow. I posted this a while ago and i'm surprised to see a post on it but I would just like to repeat. 1) Cash game and 2) How much you want to invest?I had like $20 in the pot on the turn and didn't want to roll the dice or 3 outs vs 3 outs with a player that also had a 10% chance of having the case 7. Call that "too tight" if you wish but I felt I could find a better spot to get my money in the middle than this.Maybe i'm just too tight...*shrug*

[ghoti7four 0]

oh, and I forgot about that....1). cash game.If this were a tournament I'd be afraid of calling off all of my chips to quads.Since this is a cash game you have to make the call.2). investmentYou weren't going to invest much more than $200.00 at most since it is pot limit...You already invested 20You give him randomly a 10% chance of having you beat, (which I think is still probably too high.Call. (particularly considering the percent chance that he is full on bluffing)...Call.

[Nelson 0]

oh, and I forgot about that....1). cash game.If this were a tournament I'd be afraid of calling off all of my chips to quads.Since this is a cash game you have to make the call.2). investmentYou weren't going to invest much more than $200.00 at most since it is pot limit...You already invested 20You give him randomly a 10% chance of having you beat, (which I think is still probably too high.Call. (particularly considering the percent chance that he is full on bluffing)...Call.

Well from my earlier post:"SO...is their a valid reason to risk $165 more into a pot with only $10 of dead money with only a 9% chance to win a big pot, a 19% chance to lose a big pot, and a 72% chance of just getting a few chips to tip the dealer with? "a) Fighting with BB for $10 in dead money with trips on the board.B) 28% chance i'm miles behind.c) I have this player on my right and feel I can take his money in a better situation.If anyone thinks this is a call "every time" kind of hand, your too loose. ;)PS - to another poster: There was a 0% chance he was bluffing. He had a hand. My read was solid on that.

[ghoti7four 0]

in that case raise.

[brian67 0]

Your play doesn't sound very profitable. If you are willing to play 8 9d out of mid position, then you should have been very happy with that flop. Boating the 8 is about as good as you can really expect with that. I would consider the chances that he is bluffing you a whole lot higher than you estimate, and also the chances that he has the seven much lower than 10%. People tend to get sneaky with quads as well. If you won't invest in a hand like that then you should probably stop playing hands like that out of position. 8 9 isn't going to flop the nuts very often, so be prepared to roll with it.

[Swift_Psycho 1]

I know that this is a really old post, but I'll just say that the logic behind the original poster's thinking is really flawed.

[Nelson 0]

I know that this is a really old post, but I'll just say that the logic behind the original poster's thinking is really flawed.

Old post it is but "how flawed" would you say my thinking was? Ask me any question you like about my opponite, I know his play real well.

[Swift_Psycho 1]

I know that this is a really old post, but I'll just say that the logic behind the original poster's thinking is really flawed.

Old post it is but "how flawed" would you say my thinking was? Ask me any question you like about my opponite, I know his play real well.

Really flawed. You called on the flop to see what developed on the turn. A very safe card came on the turn. I suppose you are thinking, "Well, if he has a seven, he's got quads now." Bad thinking. The seven doesn't really matter. The fact that a third one has hit the board now just makes it more likely that he doesn't have a seven. Besides, if he had a seven before, you were still really behind. If he had a high pocket pair (unlikely), you were and are still really behind. If you were ahead before, you are still ahead now. But, lucky for you, you don't even have to worry about being outkicked anymore. Now you have made a boat. If you want to fold now, you should have folded on the flop and saved your money. Even if you are sure you are outkicked, it doesn't matter. The kickers don't play and you have just as good a chance of pairing your kicker on the river as your opponent. Folding on the turn is horrible here. Folding on the flop would have been alright (afraid of a 7 or being outkicked). You cannot call on the flop and then fold when an incredibly safe card like the 7 comes on the turn. There is no logic to support doing so. The rake is not a factor that makes this situation worth losing the entire pot here once you called the bet on the flop.