at what point do you flip the coin?

[r18 0]

I was playing live last night in a multitable tourney where only the top two spots got paid. When we were down to 2 tables (14 players remaining the following hand came up...I had pocket 8's on the button. Everyone mucked in front of me. I had around 6,000 chips (most at my table). Blinds were 100/200. I came in for 600. Big blind reraised me all in. He had 3000 chips. He's the kind of player who goes all in on any ace or two paint cards so I felt like I was probably ahead in the hand. I called the bet. He turned over Ace Jack offsuit. He won the race when an Ace came on the flop.My decision to call was based on my trying to win this thing and here was a chance to take a commanding chip lead. However afterwards I was sort of sitting there wondering why I gave away half my stack and my chip leader status on a coinflip hand. If more spots had paid I might have folded but only paying the top 2 spots definitely played a part in my decision.Curious as to what other's think is the right move in this spot.

[waldo 0]

you got it in with the best of it, nothing you could do, you could fold there and wait for a better spot though, both options are viable

[gobears 0]

With 8's, I would fold. I would rather have a better hand before I get involved in a coin flip situation.You still have 5,400 chips afterwards, wait for a better set-up.Generally, I will call someone's push and go for a coin flip if:1. I'm below 10xBB, short stacked and need to double up2. The other player has a smaller stack which won't hurt me too much if I lose.

[Wily 0]

I think you should have a good read on your pushing Opp before you call an all-in with a mid pocket pair here. You want to have better odds than just a coin flip at least some of the time with your 8 8. Is he the type that would push with Ace rag, or a low pocket pair? Would he slowplay (min-raise, smooth-call) a big pocket pair, or also push all in too? If you feel that there's at least a chance you're better than a coin flip, you should call here with still a respectable amount left if you lose. However, in general I would not call an all-in at this point with just 8 8. With 10 10 and above it would easy, since the chances that you are getting better than a coin flip are higher, and the chances of being dominated lower. This also really depends on your playing style late in a tournament. Do you use your big stack to steal blinds and aggressively play against the short stacks? Then you should fold and keep your large stack intact. I personally would rather keep my stack intact and be able to see more flops with short stacks, but I'm fairly loose in the mid/late parts of a tournament, so it depends on your style. The payout structure should not matter heavily yet - there's still a while to go before the final two, and your biggest priority here should be keeping/maintaining a big stack to do battle later on.

[CieloAzor 0]

If you were to somehow know that you were getting a coinflip here, you 100% have to call. It's not even close. With 600 already invested, and you having a slight edge in the hand, a fold would be horrible.Good call, better luck next time.

[CieloAzor 0]

I'm not the greatest mathematician but I do believe I can prove that you need to call against AJo...Folding leaves you with 5400.Calling and winning leaves you with 9100 (55.4% of the time)Calling and losing leaves you with 3000 (44.7% of the time) (Due to rounding, the percentages don't add to 100% exactly. Blame Cardplayer's calculator. Also, I assumed one of the 8's had a live draw to the 4-flush, while the other did not.)Chip EV of Folding - 5400.Chip EV of Calling - 6382.4Since only the top 2 players are paid, I feel confident that the $ EV also favors calling. You'll need to win, or come close. Go for the chips.The whole situation becomes murkier if we don't KNOW it's a race. If we can put the villain on a range of hands, we can still figure out the math of the situation to determine the correct course of action. Based on the description of the villain, however, I don't think this is a terribly difficult call.EDIT - I just calculated that you'd be correct to call even as a 61-39 dog. There's no reasonable range of hands we can attribute to the villain which puts us at 39% to win the hand. Calling is the only correct play against this player. Period.

[Guest]

CieloAzor, mathematically he should call against AJo. However, this isn't a side game. If you bust, you're out. There is an added risk/reward here because of the fact it's in a tournament. Just because you have proper odds to call doesn't mean you should. The variance added by constantly trying to maximize small edges like this make it VERY hard to place highly because it's not hard to lose a couple of 3-2 favorite hands in a row and be out.Also, your analysis is assuming he has ONLY two overs. There is a definite chance that he has something like 99-JJ or higher, at which point you are a HUGE dog.Since our hero has a VERY healthy chipstack, risking half of it on a coinflip AT BEST is foolish IMO. You have no need to try and play a big pot, especially against a stack that CAN hurt you. Fold this and don't look back.Zara

[CieloAzor 0]

You're essentially losing 1000 chips every time you fold this. If you lose a series of hands where you're a 3-2 favorite, it's just not your day. No sense getting all weak/tight over it.I really don't think a coin flip is your best case scenario here. OP said this player would push any ace. In addition, you are on the correct side of this flip (55/45), and you are already partially invested. If you're folding this hand, you aren't playing optimally. It's as simple as that.

[nertz 0]

If you're folding this hand, you aren't playing optimally.

I disagree. There's no reason to risk half your stack at this point in a tournament on a coin flip (at best, even bad players wake up with monsters). In tournament poker sometimes you just have to lay down the best hand "for the greater good". There's still alot of play left in the game and at ~5400, you have a decent stack left and can probably find a much better spot, especially if you know this guy will push any ace. Although, 8-8 has been nothing but horrible to me lately so I figure I'm biased in my opinion ;P

[JaysonWeber 0]

to the OP, Put this in PokerStove, and decide for yourself the Equity of your decision, get back too us

[Rocketwadster 0]

Do you not have to consider the range of hands that the other guy would have to move all-in, and go from there. When figuring out what he would push with (other than an all-out bluff), are you not a slight favorite or a huge underdog? With 8's you are not really a huge favorite to anything but an underpair are you? And of those underpairs, what ones do you think this player would push with? I'm terrible at the math... :?

[Petoria 0]

Gotta fold, you could be a slight favorite, but most likely not. If you want to put it in the poker stove think of it this way. What is the range of hands that he would push with? Make a list in factAA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88 (unlikely, negligible for all intensive purposes), 77, AK, AQ, AJ. Against AK, AQ, AJ, AT you are 55/45. Against AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99 you're 80/20. And you're 80/20 against 77. So if you sum up all of the numbers for each side then divide by 11 you'll get your odds of winning. If it's less than 39% (using Cielo Azor's #), then it's correct to fold. Sum of your odds/11: 38% approx. So it's around being mathematically correct to call, but the negative implied odds of losing your chip lead make it an incorrect play.

[cdddc75 0]

You're essentially losing 1000 chips every time you fold this. If you lose a series of hands where you're a 3-2 favorite, it's just not your day. No sense getting all weak/tight over it.I really don't think a coin flip is your best case scenario here. OP said this player would push any ace. In addition, you are on the correct side of this flip (55/45), and you are already partially invested. If you're folding this hand, you aren't playing optimally. It's as simple as that.

If the allin shows you his AJ off before you have to call, you're right.But if he's got an overpair, this call goes from brilliant to horrible in a millisecond. Considering the range of hands that are likely to be pushed here, calling is marginal. If you can build the chip lead through solid play, why burn it on a coin flip when you don't have any blind pressure on you yet? Calling is "optimal" in a hypothetical cash game scenario, but not necessarily so in a tournament where you have demonstrated that you can outplay your opponents.

[r18 0]

Thanks for all the replies. I can relate to both sides of the debate which is why I posted in the first place.Let me reiterate that based on watching the villain's play over the tourney I was pretty certain he didn't have me beat preflop. Also one piece of info that I left out of the original post was that I had raised preflop on the three previous hands, so it seemed reasonable to me that he would try to steal back with less than the goods.

to the OP, Put this in PokerStove, and decide for yourself the Equity of your decision, get back too us

What is PokerStove?

[CieloAzor 0]

Gotta fold, you could be a slight favorite, but most likely not. If you want to put it in the poker stove think of it this way. What is the range of hands that he would push with? Make a list in factAA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88 (unlikely, negligible for all intensive purposes), 77, AK, AQ, AJ. Against AK, AQ, AJ, AT you are 55/45. Against AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99 you're 80/20. And you're 80/20 against 77. So if you sum up all of the numbers for each side then divide by 11 you'll get your odds of winning. If it's less than 39% (using Cielo Azor's #), then it's correct to fold. Sum of your odds/11: 38% approx. So it's around being mathematically correct to call, but the negative implied odds of losing your chip lead make it an incorrect play.

You've made his range terribly narrow considering OP's description of his opponent, and the fact that OP had raised 3 hands in a row. You gave us only one hand that we can dominate and we're still at 44% to win the hand. A call is in order.Personally, I gave him a range of Ax, any two broadway, any pair, and I threw in K9s. I didn't factor in that he might push high/mid suited connectors, more suited K's and Q's, or that he could be on a complete bluff. I've got us as a 56% favorite.r18 - PokerStove is an odds calculator. It calculates your equity against whatever hand ranges you assign to your opponent/s. (www.pokerstove.com)

[checkymcfold 0]

If you can build the chip lead through solid play, why burn it on a coin flip when you don't have any blind pressure on you yet? Calling is "optimal" in a hypothetical cash game scenario, but not necessarily so in a tournament where you have demonstrated that you can outplay your opponents.

THIS is the most important point made thus far. if you're sitting at a table that got you a chip lead through solid play (read: you're better than everyone), then there is no reason whatsoever to neutralize this advantage by reducing your play to all in coin flips. do what got you here, if you're the best player out there. if you feel like you're outmatched, then that's when you want to gamble more with your stack. can you steal blinds here? can you scoop some rag flops in late position? if so, don't be risking half your stack on a crapshoot. you've got better, more safe ways of winning this thing.

[ArseneLupin3 0]

If you can build the chip lead through solid play, why burn it on a coin flip when you don't have any blind pressure on you yet? Calling is "optimal" in a hypothetical cash game scenario, but not necessarily so in a tournament where you have demonstrated that you can outplay your opponents.

THIS is the most important point made thus far. if you're sitting at a table that got you a chip lead through solid play (read: you're better than everyone), then there is no reason whatsoever to neutralize this advantage by reducing your play to all in coin flips. do what got you here, if you're the best player out there. if you feel like you're outmatched, then that's when you want to gamble more with your stack. can you steal blinds here? can you scoop some rag flops in late position? if so, don't be risking half your stack on a crapshoot. you've got better, more safe ways of winning this thing.

I had pocket 8's on the button. Everyone mucked in front of me. I had around 6,000 chips (most at my table). Blinds were 100/200. I came in for 600. Big blind reraised me all in. He had 3000 chips. He's the kind of player who goes all in on any ace or two paint cards so I felt like I was probably ahead in the hand

His hand was likely a favorite over the blinds. He only has 30bb himself, and I imagine that at the next level this was cut to either 20 or 15. This excludes the 10% of his stack he already threw into the pot. He will be up against enough underpairs and overcards where this is a must-call against the described player with no hesitation. He'll still have 3k left over, and the pot is laying him over 1.5:1.Giving up chips and waiting for a better spot is somewhat of a fallacy in that, when you study many situations, these tight folds will not only encourage other players to resteal off you, but may have far less value than the call. It's called gambling for a reason, sometimes you just have to play higher variance poker to get a higher return. Of course, I'm more for flipping the coin when I'm raising, because the folding equity pads my losses.I do know players that I would instantly muck this against, but I can't see doing it here.