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10nl: Sticky Spot With Top Set


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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comSB ($21.26)BB ($12.67)UTG ($7.47)UTG+1 ($3.09)Hero (MP1) ($10)MP2 ($7.72)MP3 ($24.15)CO ($22.52)Button ($4.25)Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8club.gif, 8heart.gif1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, 3 folds, SB calls $0.05, BB checksFlop: ($0.50) 6spade.gif, 8spade.gif, 7spade.gif(5 players)SB bets $0.20, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, Hero ????

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Well I know nothing about FR play, so take this with a grain of saltI'd raise pre-flop. Is it standard to limp 88 from MP in FR?As played I'd call with the intention of calling down unless the board pairs. Fold if a 4th spade hits the turn or river obv.If you get it in against a straight or flush you've only got 33% equity, so raising and getting it in is bad

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Raise PF.On the flop, raise. The small sizing from SB indicates usually a draw, and UTG's flat is almost always a draw too. Made hands are always betting bigger or raising to charge the one card flush draws. Our hand is almost always best here, so raise near pot - I'd make it $1.30 to go. If we get reraised from SB, then I think we call and reevaluate, partly based on UTG's action. If SB folds and UTG raises over us, then we are almost always up against a high flush or straight. In that case, we play to fill up - remember the odds for us there aren't as bad as they seem, and we'd have fantastic implied odds because players can NEVER lay down a flopped flush.

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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comSB ($21.26)BB ($12.67)UTG ($7.47)UTG+1 ($3.09)Hero (MP1) ($10)MP2 ($7.72)MP3 ($24.15)CO ($22.52)Button ($4.25)Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8club.gif, 8heart.gif1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, 3 folds, SB calls $0.05, BB checksFlop: ($0.50) 6spade.gif, 8spade.gif, 7spade.gif(5 players)SB bets $0.20, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, Hero ????
The real prob with this hand is not that we may be behind, it's how we get value when we're ahead.
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I'd raise pre-flop. Is it standard to limp 88 from MP in FR?
Eh, it could go either way. I'd open-raise this 100% of the time but with a limp in front I don't think it's terrible to limp behind and entice others to come along.
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So how do you play it? Raise flop and try to get it in on a non-spade turn?
Raise until you can't raise anymore. It really just depends on pot size and such on the turn (4th spade, 4card straight card). But we want to get the money in and we want it in the middle now. Even if he flopped the flush or straight, we still have outs
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Continuing with the hand...Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comSB ($21.26)BB ($12.67)UTG ($7.47)UTG+1 ($3.09)Hero (MP1) ($10)MP2 ($7.72)MP3 ($24.15)CO ($22.52)Button ($4.25)Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8club.gif, 8heart.gif1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, 3 folds, SB calls $0.05, BB checksFlop: ($0.50) 6spade.gif, 8spade.gif, 7spade.gif(5 players)SB bets $0.20, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, Hero raises to $0.90, MP2 calls $0.90, SB calls $0.70, UTG+1 calls $0.70Turn: ($4.10) Kdiamond.gif(4 players)SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets $2.20, SB calls $2.20, UTG+1 calls $2.09 (All-In), Hero ???

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As to the WTF with the turn check, I assumed that when I raised the flop and got 4 callers that one of them might have been slowplaying a big flush. What I forgot to consider was the fact that even if someone did have the flush, I still had the odds in a multiway pot to chase my boat.

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So how do you play it? Raise flop and try to get it in on a non-spade turn?
There is an 0.84% chance an individual villain flopped a flush. We had a 10.5% chance of flopping a set. We were much more likely to hit our hand, so if this happened infinity number of times, and we shoved and got called every time, we'd make $infinity. Once here, we have a 33.3% chance of filling up from the flop vs. a flush and since we have multiple villains in, we're automatically priced to WIN MONEY over the long haul. This is big overpair w/big flush draw a lot. And that hand is going to pay us off or fold. Both winning propositions.
Continuing with the hand...Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comSB ($21.26)BB ($12.67)UTG ($7.47)UTG+1 ($3.09)Hero (MP1) ($10)MP2 ($7.72)MP3 ($24.15)CO ($22.52)Button ($4.25)Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8club.gif, 8heart.gif1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, 3 folds, SB calls $0.05, BB checksFlop: ($0.50) 6spade.gif, 8spade.gif, 7spade.gif(5 players)SB bets $0.20, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, Hero raises to $0.90, MP2 calls $0.90, SB calls $0.70, UTG+1 calls $0.70Turn: ($4.10) Kdiamond.gif(4 players)SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets $2.20, SB calls $2.20, UTG+1 calls $2.09 (All-In), Hero ???
OMG just get it in.
As to the WTF with the turn check, I assumed that when I raised the flop and got 4 callers that one of them might have been slowplaying a big flush. What I forgot to consider was the fact that even if someone did have the flush, I still had the odds in a multiway pot to chase my boat.
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There is an 0.84% chance an individual villain flopped a flush. We had a 10.5% chance of flopping a set. We were much more likely to hit our hand, so if this happened infinity number of times, and we shoved and got called every time, we'd make $infinity. Once here, we have a 33.3% chance of filling up from the flop vs. a flush and since we have multiple villains in, we're automatically priced to WIN MONEY over the long haul. This is big overpair w/big flush draw a lot. And that hand is going to pay us off or fold. Both winning propositions.
Well when you put it like that...
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There is an 0.84% chance an individual villain flopped a flush. We had a 10.5% chance of flopping a set.
These numbers aren't really relevant, imho. We can see how the flop came out, so the chances of a villain having a flush are much higher:(10 choose 2) / (47 choose 2) = 0.04and our chances of having a set are 1.If we don't want to look at the flop cards, then we have to consider all of the other ways (not just flushes) that 2 random cards could beat us.However, yes, raise the turn in the actual hand.
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As to the WTF with the turn check, I assumed that when I raised the flop and got 4 callers that one of them might have been slowplaying a big flush. What I forgot to consider was the fact that even if someone did have the flush, I still had the odds in a multiway pot to chase my boat.
On the turn, there are 3 villains. You get, at best, 3:1 on the turn wager if no one folds. If all of your outs are live (i.e., no one has a pair), you are slightly worse than 3:1 to make a boat.
Board: 6s 8s 7s KdDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	23.810%	  23.81% 	00.00% 				10 			0.00   { 8c8h }Hand 1: 	76.190%	  76.19% 	00.00% 				32 			0.00   { QsJs }Hand 2: 	00.000%	  00.00% 	00.00% 				 0 			0.00   { Th9h }

Therefore, you do not benefit from betting the turn if you need to improve.Do bet the turn, though, because you are likely to have the best hand already.

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i think we made a mistake of not betting pre, and an even bigger mistake of not betting turn, or we could c/r, but we need to try and rep the flsuh here, so if they dont have it they fold a lot, and if they do, we have outs. i mean we probably could take it down on that turn literally ever time someone doesnt have a flush. I mean if they flopped like a flush or better, then your just SOL on variances side and you can't help that

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i think we made a mistake of not betting pre, and an even bigger mistake of not betting turn, or we could c/r, but we need to try and rep the flsuh here, so if they dont have it they fold a lot, and if they do, we have outs. i mean we probably could take it down on that turn literally ever time someone doesnt have a flush. I mean if they flopped like a flush or better, then your just SOL on variances side and you can't help that
Try and rep the flush? What?
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but we need to try and rep the flsuh here, so if they dont have it they fold a lot, and if they do, we have outs.
The only thing we want to fold is a straight, and I don't think that makes up much of his total range.
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That is what I'm talking about when Rumsey uses terms to try and sound like he's giving good advice but it never makes any sense. Why would we want anything to fold here (besides the unlikely straight)? A flush is never folding, and we can charge the naked one card draws enough for them to draw incorrectly.

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