Wierd Spot With 75s

[Sick Boy 0]

I'll explain my thought process after the HH.PokerStars Game #37009589384: Tournament #241010581, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (100/200) - 2009/12/22 11:04:48 NZT [2009/12/21 17:04:48 ET]Table '241010581 195' 9-max Seat #6 is the buttonSeat 1: sebmostwante (8240 in chips) Seat 2: winwinthepoo (4404 in chips) Seat 3: pcwwrestler (5573 in chips) Seat 4: robc1978 (16005 in chips) Seat 5: Jitte45 (14145 in chips) Seat 6: Mulchick (5333 in chips) Seat 7: paparoonie (11897 in chips) Seat 8: bingfa (11825 in chips) Seat 9: traviz12 (3435 in chips) sebmostwante: posts the ante 25winwinthepoo: posts the ante 25pcwwrestler: posts the ante 25robc1978: posts the ante 25Jitte45: posts the ante 25Mulchick: posts the ante 25paparoonie: posts the ante 25bingfa: posts the ante 25traviz12: posts the ante 25paparoonie: posts small blind 100bingfa: posts big blind 200*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to Mulchick [7c 5c]traviz12: folds sebmostwante: raises 250 to 450winwinthepoo: folds pcwwrestler: folds robc1978: folds Jitte45: folds Mulchick: calls 450paparoonie: calls 350bingfa: folds *** FLOP *** [Ah 6h 8d]paparoonie: checks sebmostwante: checks Mulchick: checks *** TURN *** [Ah 6h 8d] [3c]paparoonie: bets 200sebmostwante: raises 400 to 600Mulchick: raises 4258 to 4858 and is all-inSo my call preflop was obviously a little loose but I figured I had position and a hand that had some potential. I was gonna take a look and make up my mind on what to do based on flop texture, bet sizess, number of players etc. So the flop comes down and I catch an open ended straight draw. Its checked to me and I think about betting, (which is probably the better option in this spot if Im gonna be playing a hand like 75s). But instead I check, the reason being was that I was concerned of getting check raised off my draw which would suck. So the turn is a blank, and the BB makes the weakest bet I have ever seen. Its like a "wtf" bet. Then the preflop raiser 3 bets it him, which also looks pretty weak to me because it looked like he was only raising because he picked up on BBs weakness. The raise size was so small etc. Now, imo they both just looked so weak to me and it was pretty obvious niether of them had a very strong hand. Its possible one or both of them are on flush draws or have weaker pairs, and I didnt think they would want to play for all their chips with those kinds of hands. So I shove, thinking that I could either get them both to fold weaker pairs or flush draws. The back up plan was that if my read happend to be way off, I would still have my straight draw. Obviously its kinda hard to represent an Ace here, but I was hoping it would look like I spiked a set or something of that nature on the turn.Anyways, thoughts?

[dingas 0]

I actually like your play on the turn and think you pick it up quite often.But the preflop call is pretty terrible.

[HighwayStar 8]

Pre is a big leak no matter what. You want twice the stack size to make this call.Postflop is possibly good- I think you are right that people are weak based on the turn action - you might still get looked up by 8x or better since you arent really repping too much - people could well not be thinking that deep though. I think an 8 will still call most of the time. You could also get called by something bizarre like T9hh which would be horrific. Might bet half pot on the flop if I think my opponents are unlikely to have an ace when they check to me. I think you often get folds enough and can buy a free river a lot too. It's all kinda icky with the stacks as they are - which is why yu need to be twice as deep.

[HighwayStar 8]

Meh, when you shove here and are called you have a max of 8 outs which is ~ 16%. I'd like to at least have some live pair outs to go along with it. I really don't think you get folds often enough for the reward to outweigh the risk.

[SGFULTON83 0]

I really don't think you get folds often enough for the reward to outweigh the risk.

[Sick Boy 0]

Pre is a big leak no matter what. You want twice the stack size to make this call.Postflop is possibly good- I think you are right that people are weak based on the turn action - you might still get looked up by 8x or better since you arent really repping too much - people could well not be thinking that deep though. I think an 8 will still call most of the time. You could also get called by something bizarre like T9hh which would be horrific. Might bet half pot on the flop if I think my opponents are unlikely to have an ace when they check to me. I think you often get folds enough and can buy a free river a lot too. It's all kinda icky with the stacks as they are - which is why yu need to be twice as deep.

I really liked the way you anaylised this hand and I appreciate the input alot. Alot of posters are to lazy to actually put the effort in.I think betting flop is better in this spot as played, but dont you think we should fire 3/4 pot instead of 1/2 so that it actually looks like we have the ace instead of a weak drawing hand or just a steal attempt?

Meh, when you shove here and are called you have a max of 8 outs which is ~ 16%. I'd like to at least have some live pair outs to go along with it. I really don't think you get folds often enough for the reward to outweigh the risk.

thats assuming we're up against an A or 8 right?

[HighwayStar 8]

I really liked the way you anaylised this hand and I appreciate the input alot. Alot of posters are to lazy to actually put the effort in.I think betting flop is better in this spot as played, but dont you think we should fire 3/4 pot instead of 1/2 so that it actually looks like we have the ace instead of a weak drawing hand or just a steal attempt?

yea that makes sense, it's a pretty draw board so If i had flopped something here I'd be betting big. Make the 6h the 6s and I'd probably bet slightly less. Make the 8 a 6 and I'd be betting 1/2 pot or less.

thats assuming we're up against an A or 8 right?

yea 8x, 99-KK, Ax i was thinking. Could be some other stuff show up

[SwolyswoND 1]

thats assuming we're up against an A or 8 right?

Yes, since youre never getting called lighter than 8x.The problem is what are you trying to rep? Your line looks so FOS, I don't think I'd ever fold a PP between 8-A if I were the PFR. I'm certainly not folding an Ace. His turn raise might look weak, but its so small that I doubt it's total air. It's actually more likely that its a slowplayed set (which yes would be awfully played by villain, but people love to slowplay sets at these levels) than it is air or a pair that will fold.

[Sick Boy 0]

Yes, since youre never getting called lighter than 8x.The problem is what are you trying to rep? Your line looks so FOS, I don't think I'd ever fold a PP between 8-A if I were the PFR. I'm certainly not folding an Ace. His turn raise might look weak, but its so small that I doubt it's total air. It's actually more likely that its a slowplayed set (which yes would be awfully played by villain, but people love to slowplay sets at these levels) than it is air or a pair that will fold.

Well if people love to slowplay sets at this level isnt it possible that I slowplayed the set? hehe. Basically I was repping that I had a better hand than he did, I was hoping he was on the flush draw and BB had some kind of weak 8 or something. I can see that it looks FOS but its gotta be an ultra uncomfortable spot for him to call with any of the hands he might have.

[SwolyswoND 1]

You can't just rep "I have a better hand than you." The story you tell with your betting has to make sense. If you had a set, you wouldn't check the flop because you weren't the PFR, and the PFR already checked. PFR at this level like to (mind you this is a bad play) check when they flop their sets instead of cbet because they want you to catch up or are trying to c/r. Any thinking villain is going to call you with any pair 8 or higher because your line doesn't tell a competent story. SB might have a FD here, but there are almost zero FD in the EPs (PFR) range. There are also almost zero non-made hands in his range...what kind of hand are you putting EP on here? KQ? Even most PP are just calling down the SB's gaybet because they are just too scared of the Ace on board, especially with you left to act. I actually assign a very small range to EP here, and think he should like never fold to your overshove.

[Mercury69 3]

I agree with Highway. p[lease stop calling PF raises with junk. The concept of odds in a tourney is highly overrated, esp when your hand needs to hit the flop really hard. You got lucky flopping an OESD, but that happens only once every, say, 10-12 hands, so it's really a -EV move.It's a different story if you are the initial raiser. Then you have something to work with besides your cards.

[dingas 0]

You can't just rep "I have a better hand than you." The story you tell with your betting has to make sense. If you had a set, you wouldn't check the flop because you weren't the PFR, and the PFR already checked. PFR at this level like to (mind you this is a bad play) check when they flop their sets instead of cbet because they want you to catch up or are trying to c/r. Any thinking villain is going to call you with any pair 8 or higher because your line doesn't tell a competent story. SB might have a FD here, but there are almost zero FD in the EPs (PFR) range. There are also almost zero non-made hands in his range...what kind of hand are you putting EP on here? KQ? Even most PP are just calling down the SB's gaybet because they are just too scared of the Ace on board, especially with you left to act. I actually assign a very small range to EP here, and think he should like never fold to your overshove.

You're not thinking on the right level. Sure, checking the flop and then pushing the turn looks a bit suspicious... But we are pushing over top of a bet and a raise - I don't think many people will interpret that as a bluff. And that's the beauty of it - people don't bluff in this sort of spot, so you make the play as a bluff.Anyway, it's not like no one ever checks behind a set on this flop. Of course, it's possible to have a set in this spot. And we could have hit the set on the turn too.

[HighwayStar 8]

I kinda like the idea behind the turn shove, I don't think this is quite spot to do it.

[SwolyswoND 1]

You're not thinking on the right level. Sure, checking the flop and then pushing the turn looks a bit suspicious... But we are pushing over top of a bet and a raise - I don't think many people will interpret that as a bluff. And that's the beauty of it - people don't bluff in this sort of spot, so you make the play as a bluff.Anyway, it's not like no one ever checks behind a set on this flop. Of course, it's possible to have a set in this spot. And we could have hit the set on the turn too.

Sure I am. As Villain here I'm thinking on Level 4 - "What does he think I think he has?" As villain here I realize that the hero wants me to think he has a set. Now I agree with you here that he could've turned the set, but no I don't think it likely that Hero would check behind a flopped set after the PFR checked. So you're asking me to believe this story for only one possible holding with 3 combos - 33. That's way too narrow a range to rep to pull this off successfully. When you bluff you need to be repping a wide, credible range. Hero's line defines a range which looks exactly like what his hand is - a draw that wants people to fold.

[rrumsey 0]

I would have loved a half bet pot on flop, weeds some things out and makes a turn shove look a lot more powerful because we then rep more, like an A or 2 pair, a draw, some combos. Personally in tournies i have found just stabbing flops when players show weakness works a lot, either they fold or spaz overshove, either way it is easy for us to play it correctly then. I agree with swolys because we played the hand a lot like a draw, and we are seeing multiway action on the turn, that is a huge risk. Either way we are way to short to call pre here, we can open pots or shove over opens and that is about it, imo.

[dingas 0]

Sure I am. As Villain here I'm thinking on Level 4 - "What does he think I think he has?" As villain here I realize that the hero wants me to think he has a set. Now I agree with you here that he could've turned the set, but no I don't think it likely that Hero would check behind a flopped set after the PFR checked. So you're asking me to believe this story for only one possible holding with 3 combos - 33. That's way too narrow a range to rep to pull this off successfully. When you bluff you need to be repping a wide, credible range. Hero's line defines a range which looks exactly like what his hand is - a draw that wants people to fold.

Nope I'm still thinking a level ahead of you. Villain thinks "He is trying to make me think he has a set, but based on his flop check he can't have a set, but he knows that he can't represent a set after checking the flop so he wouldn't even try to bluff it (let alone a cold 3-bet bluff) if he didn't have it, so therefore he must have it." Will this bet work? I don't know. My understanding of op's logic is that the min bet and the tiny raise show such weakness that a lot of the time they won't be able to call even if they put hero on a bluff. This type of bluff comes up once in a while in multiway pots when everyone is weak. The point is that the original bettor might have something like 99 which obviously can't call an all-in, but the first raiser might be on complete air.

[Sick Boy 0]

Nope I'm still thinking a level ahead of you. Villain thinks "He is trying to make me think he has a set, but based on his flop check he can't have a set, but he knows that he can't represent a set after checking the flop so he wouldn't even try to bluff it (let alone a cold 3-bet bluff) if he didn't have it, so therefore he must have it." Will this bet work? I don't know. My understanding of op's logic is that the min bet and the tiny raise show such weakness that a lot of the time they won't be able to call even if they put hero on a bluff. This type of bluff comes up once in a while in multiway pots when everyone is weak. The point is that the original bettor might have something like 99 which obviously can't call an all-in, but the first raiser might be on complete air.

Yeah this is actually exactly my logic in this spot. I mean its like one of those things like Mike Sexton says, "even if the guy is bluffing you gotta give it to him", right? I wont be calling pre in that spot again, so that leak has been plugged. So do we want results or futher discussion?

[Sick Boy 0]

I kinda like the idea behind the turn shove, I don't think this is quite spot to do it.

What situation is better for it iyo?

[HighwayStar 8]

I'd quite like to have more equity when called...it's quite hard to manufacture this on this particular board.The reason I like it is b/c I think the players in this hand have fairly weak ranges most of the time but I guess it depends on their tendencies. Seb could be slowplaying some 2 pair/set badly here and 33 makes sense too, it's a really weak raise though so it;s hard to say. I can;t think of a hand that I'd play this way on this board but that doesn't mean he's just full of shit - people play weird.I think paparoonie is going to fold to this action 98% of the time.I don't think you get folds nearly enough overall when you only have 16% equity when called. If you could bump that up to say 30% then this might be good - it's quite hard to generate that kind of equity on the turn in any draw situation though. Say you had 79 here you have an overcard to the 8 which can give you a live pair out sometimes when called. This is probably not nearly enough in this example but these small %ages add up.

[SwolyswoND 1]

Why do we think the small turn raise by the PFR means weakness? After a flop check on what should be an easy c-bet board, and a small raise (meaning wants a call) with a player behind yet to act, I think the small turn raise says strength more than weakness.

[Sick Boy 0]

Why do we think the small turn raise by the PFR means weakness? After a flop check on what should be an easy c-bet board, and a small raise (meaning wants a call) with a player behind yet to act, I think the small turn raise says strength more than weakness.

WEll the flop check looks very weak, and the turn raise gives the vibe that he's picked up on SB weakness and feels that maybe he can get a fold or maybe he might even have a better hand. There is also a chance that he's raising with a flush draw, thinking that even if he gets called he can either hit his flush on the river or fire out a bluff if a blank comes.The chances of PFR actually having a very strong hand here are so very small,

[SwolyswoND 1]

I strongly disagree. This is a flop that villains will cbet like 90% of the time - and if they have whiffed they are likely to still take one shot at the pot with a flop cbet. The only hands that a normal villain PFR will check here are very strong ones. And I also disagree with the flop raise analysis. Small raises are seldom weak - they want a call. Raises with a player behind are seldom weak - they are bluffing two players instead of one. And turn raises after a flop check are very very very seldom weak - if he had completely whiffed, he would've cbet the flop and/or folded the turn.

[rrumsey 0]

I strongly disagree. This is a flop that villains will cbet like 90% of the time - and if they have whiffed they are likely to still take one shot at the pot with a flop cbet. The only hands that a normal villain PFR will check here are very strong ones. And I also disagree with the flop raise analysis. Small raises are seldom weak - they want a call. Raises with a player behind are seldom weak - they are bluffing two players instead of one. And turn raises after a flop check are very very very seldom weak - if he had completely whiffed, he would've cbet the flop and/or folded the turn.

totally agree at this level weak = strong, strong = weak mostly