Deepish In $55 70k

[qnshustler 0]

Well the reason I like the argument for calling is that we are in the final 30ish. All that matters at this point is the FT and with enough chips to win. So with that in mind and knowing blinds are going up, antes will start hurting, and we cant expect many premiums before FT bubble, I think its a call. CL is around 385k at this point and a bunch over 200. Even though I have a lot of chips, above avg. there are a bunch of stacks over me. At this point in the tourny I am playing to win, not just step up in payouts cuz they don't matter.My goal at this point is to win 12k. Not $600 for bubbling the FT.Next time this exact situation comes up, I call.

I was going to ask this but forgot to because it certainly makes a difference. All you said before was that we were "deepish" you didn't tell us whether we were in the money or how many were left, etc...

[Poker Addict 0]

Yeah, I should have given more info. But its been a while since I posted in strat.

[rbakken2504 0]

If I remember correctly A was on the button nd B was in the small blind?I'd say A shoves something like 44+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+and I'd say B shoves something like88+,AJs+,AQo+Jacks has 39.331% equity aginst those 2 ranges. You can tighten them up but it's not gonna go below 37% easily unless 47k dude is a meganit and is only isoing about 3%.Pot odds are around 1.63 : 1 which means we need around 37.3% to call.I guess it's not a huge edge, but for that many chips deep in this MTT I think I take it all day.

This range is way too wide, well B isnt too bad, but A is...Tehtoes range is pretty spot on in this situation. You are correct on the math, i just did it real quick like in my head in my previous post...obviously not too well since i was quite off on the pot odds lol. I'm kind of a nit in these situations, if i had say 30 BB's i'd call, but with 100 BB's im generally more confident in folding and finding safer pots since i have so much room to play with, and even more so in this case cuz i dont have much money invested...then again if the pot is lost we still have 50 BB's...hell i dont know

[DonkSlayer 1]

Deep in the 70k.Important StacksBlinds: 600/1200 +antesMe: 105kVillian A: $24kVillian B: $50kI open MP to $2199 with JJVillian A shovesVillian B overshovesMe?Ranges?What do you think?

I don't exactly know how "deep" we are or reads on villains, but with some understanding that we're close to the bubble with a very nice stack, I'd probably pass on this one.

[DonkSlayer 1]

If I remember correctly A was on the button nd B was in the small blind?I'd say A shoves something like 44+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+and I'd say B shoves something like88+,AJs+,AQo+Jacks has 39.331% equity aginst those 2 ranges. You can tighten them up but it's not gonna go below 37% easily unless 47k dude is a meganit and is only isoing about 3%.Pot odds are around 1.63 : 1 which means we need around 37.3% to call.I guess it's not a huge edge, but for that many chips deep in this MTT I think I take it all day.

B's range is good, I still can't even give Tehtoe his range on A though, and HighwayStars is nutso. (and i'm not flaming, j/s)A isn't going to shove QJ or KT/KJ into a bigstack raiser..most people just don't do that. Is Tehtoe/HighwayStar doing that in A's spot? (if you are, ok). IMO A's range is like 77+ AJ+. Does the math still work? If so i'll accept it and change my answer to call.

[Tehtoe 3]

B's range is good, I still can't even give Tehtoe his range on A though, and HighwayStars is nutso. (and i'm not flaming, j/s)A isn't going to shove QJ or KT/KJ into a bigstack raiser..most people just don't do that. Is Tehtoe/HighwayStar doing that in A's spot? (if you are, ok). IMO A's range is like 77+ AJ+. Does the math still work? If so i'll accept it and change my answer to call.

Define most people.EDIT: Running it through Sheets' spreadsheets reshoving KJs/QJs vs someone opening 25% of hands and calling a tightish range is only going to be marginally unprofitable chip EV wise

[HighwayStar 8]

- I was originally working on 20 BBs- if anyone is noticing Steve (the OPs) image, they'll know he's a gigantic nitbox.But anyway, you have 20 + BBs and just because you're against a "Bigstack raiser", it doesn't mean you dont have fold equity and if anything it means in general you should be facing a wider opening range making a wider reshoving range.For 20 BBs I think you're going to find this is a profitable reshove with something like44-66+, A8/A9s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs and maybe something like 98s, 87s.With 24 BBs as it is in the hand I'd probably take out the suited connectors, a couple of the worse broadway hands, and A8/A9s. The small pairs work really well in reshove scenarios, although maybe I'd drop 44 since it doesn't make many straights.I'd probably end up with something like55+ AT+ KQ KJs QJsIn reality this is extremely close with that range, and JJ is right on the border - which is way off my initial impression of the hand since I thought TT was a call.

[HighwayStar 8]

Just did some work on the side potsIf we call, the side pot will be 52kand the main pot will be 24k + 24k + 24k + 1000 + 100*9 = 73900 equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 46.761% 45.86% 00.90% 334557492 6539778.00 { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }Hand 1: 53.239% 52.34% 00.90% 381804456 6539778.00 { JJ }Which mean's we're calling 26k to win 26k @ .532 equity, which is a chip decision equating to around 27664-26000 = + 1664For the main pot we're calling off 21.2k to win 52.8k - wBUT we only get a chance to scoop the main pot around 53.2% of the time.So, using these ranges, since once you win the main pot, Bs range is irrelevantHand 0: 60.711% 60.10% 00.61% 821222988 8345550.00 { JJ }Hand 1: 39.289% 38.68% 00.61% 528504504 8345550.00 { 55+, A9s+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }we find 0.468 of the time we are -212000.532 * (1-0.60711) = 0.209 of the time we are -212000.532* 0.60711 = 0.323 of the time we are + 52800Overall0.677 * - 21200 = - 14352.40.323 * + 52500 = + 17054.4= + 2702Adding this to the + 1664 on the main pot we get +4366+4.3 BBs is a pretty decent return on a 50 BB investment, imo.I may have ****ed up somewhere/there may be some flawed logic. I think this result is probably too +EV but I can't see anythig wrong. I had to use the shitty microsoft calculator so there's a decent chance I made a mistake although scanning through it again, I can't see where.

[DonkSlayer 1]

Define most people.EDIT: Running it through Sheets' spreadsheets reshoving KJs/QJs vs someone opening 25% of hands and calling a tightish range is only going to be marginally unprofitable chip EV wise

Short of a high-buyin tourney with only pros in attendance, by "most people" i mean at least the majority of the tourney field.

[DonkSlayer 1]

HighwayStar wrote:For 20 BBs I think you're going to find this is a profitable reshove with something like44-66+, A8/A9s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs and maybe something like 98s, 87s.With 24 BBs as it is in the hand I'd probably take out the suited connectors, a couple of the worse broadway hands, and A8/A9s. The small pairs work really well in reshove scenarios, although maybe I'd drop 44 since it doesn't make many straights.I'd probably end up with something like55+ AT+ KQ KJs QJsIn reality this is extremely close with that range, and JJ is right on the border - which is way off my initial impression of the hand since I thought TT was a call. I have learned a ton from this post, mostly on what my reshoving range should be in this spot as Villain A, given no other serious variables.Now tell me if you think the average of all villains is going to know all this and reshoves with 55+ AT+ KQ KJs QJs.Also, when you do these numbers, does it assign an equal likelihood that all the hands in this range are held?

[HighwayStar 8]

Also, when you do these numbers, does it assign an equal likelihood that all the hands in this range are held?

This is like the most fiddly thing ever on sharkscope, so yes, all ranges are equal. Weighting ranges is a factor, but I think a fairly small one. If you don't think A is going to be reshoving this wide at all, and there are plenty of people who won't, that really screws with the calculation and could very easily make this negative.I'd guess the border would be somewhere around where we are < 55/56% against his range, although since I don't have a real calculator on me right I'm not testing that theory out.For what constitutes a profitable reshove with 24 BBs here...I'm not sure exactly. KJs/55/AT are probably about the break -even point, depending on how nitty the opener is. If you're dealing with some spazzy lagtard then 22 and A7s could well become good reshoves.In reality, you find a lot of people are weak in these spots and raise/folding just far too often so what you believe to be a -EV reshove could easily be +EV because villain could be folding hands like AJ, 88edit - vs this range which is one you said earlier? equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 43.208% 42.42% 00.79% 396587952 7369890.00 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }Hand 1: 56.792% 56.00% 00.79% 523590252 7369890.00 { JJ }My instincts tell me you're gonna get owned on the main potAlso if you honestly think the B is only gonna iso shove QQ+ and AK then you're in a horrendous spot. There are people like this, if I remember correctly, the player in this scenario was not like this.

[HighwayStar 8]

Ok I have a calculator now, giving A 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ and B the same.So we still have +1664 on the main potWe are 56.8% against that rangeSo 0.468 + 0.230 = 69.8% of the time we lose 21200 so therefore 30.2% of the time we win 52500Which is a -14797.6 + 15855 = + 1058So STILL a +EV call.

[HighwayStar 8]

Giving B a tighter range, say TT+ AQ+ and A the range in the post aboveWe're 46.9% against Band 56.8 against AI'm not gonna do the calculation because that is definitely going to be a negative number - around -1200 I'd guess.

[DonkSlayer 1]

Giving B a tighter range, say TT+ AQ+ and A the range in the post aboveWe're 46.9% against Band 56.8 against AI'm not gonna do the calculation because that is definitely going to be a negative number - around -1200 I'd guess.

Great discussion, thanks for your maffs.

[rrumsey 0]

do we have any history with the overshover? If he is straight forward TAG dump it we are screwed. If we know he is mostly TAG but would iso with KQ and AJ i could see a case for a call but it is fringe and optimistic at the very least. As an outsider to your histories here: I think you slightly overvalue his overshoving range but putting hands in the range to hope is there so pokerstove justifies a call. I think with this many chips we wait for a little better spot because we have almost nothing invested and im sure plenty more short stacks will be shoving with the blinds about to go up we can wait to pick some people off. Fringe fold is my vote but this is why i hate tournies things get a little sketchy when you have monster stacks and short stacks involved.

[rrumsey 0]

+ EV of what 1K is fringe when our stack is large enough to wait for the blinds to go up and then the blinds makes this a much better ev of basically the same situation and same ranges by virtue of more payoff, right?

[Tehtoe 3]

+ EV of what 1K is fringe when our stack is large enough to wait for the blinds to go up and then the blinds makes this a much better ev of basically the same situation and same ranges by virtue of more payoff, right?

[rrumsey 0]

funny but why? was my post that bad? # edit probably was so don't answer that on second thought lol

[HighwayStar 8]

I have been informed, by a more mathematically able friend, that the method I used was almost correct but was missing one logical assumption - but the lack of this logical assumption just means my calculation gave a lower bound on your expected EV in each of the spots.

[DonkSlayer 1]

I have been informed, by a more mathematically able friend, that the method I used was almost correct but was missing one logical assumption - but the lack of this logical assumption just means my calculation gave a lower bound on your expected EV in each of the spots.