rinswun 6 Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 Rast is Swiss so I'm sure he'll be neutral.another great analysis, nice work. plus this part cracked me up. personally i'd love to see lance win it again, would be an awesome story especially after he said he could easily beat all the guys in the tour whilst he was retired. Link to post Share on other sites
donk4life 34 Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 Wild you don't think Levi has his own ambitions and would try to win the tour as well? Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 13, 2009 Author Share Posted July 13, 2009 Wild you don't think Levi has his own ambitions and would try to win the tour as well?I believe both Levi and Kloden have their own ambitions but on the pecking order they are way down. I think the only way they get to be players in the overall is if they A) Get in to break that gets several minutes on the field B) Have a massive time trial while the others fail. Sunday's stage was very telling. Astana had burned off their 'helpers' so Kloden and Levi had to go to the front and ride tempo. This is huge. Also, I don't think Levi can pull it off on the biggest stage. When he has made it on to the podium there's was always a team leader in front of him. In 2001 he finished 3rd at the Tour of Spain but Roberto Heras was the team leader. In 2007 he finished 3rd at the Tour (he could have won but he was second fiddle to Contador.) This year at the Tour of Italy he was the designed team leader but he faltered when it mattered most. He had a chance to take the pink jersey on the super long TT but came up short. After that the wheels came off. Also Armstrong rode for Levi building him some loyalty. One thing in Levi's favor is that he always rides better in the Alps than the Pyrenees. This year the Pyrenees were a bit of yawn this year but the Alps have mountain top finishes so it should be interesting. Levi is more of slow motor while Contador and Lance to a lesser extent can make violent attacks that can leave the field gasping for breath. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 13, 2009 Author Share Posted July 13, 2009 Tuesday stage will be another one for the sprinters. Another group of 4-6 riders (once again minimum of two Frenchmen) will get off the front and get caught 10k from the finish (6 miles) from there the field will wind up. I think Cav will will again. Look for Thor to finished 2nd and Oscar to finish 3rd. I think Columbia is giving up on the GC - even though Tony Martin is in the top 10. You might also see Tom Boonen near the front. His Quick Step team has hand a horrible tour so far. Apparently, he started the race with a stomach virus and horrible case or the runs. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 15, 2009 Author Share Posted July 15, 2009 Wednesday will be the same as Tuesday. A minimum of two Frenchmen in the break.The break may get more time on the field (they've got their radios back) but I think we are in store for another field sprint with Cav taking it again.Yesterday Colombia had all their players take part in the chase both Martin and Kirchen helped reel the break back in. 1. Cav2. Tyler3. ThorNothing in the GC unless there is a crash. Link to post Share on other sites
donk4life 34 Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 Wild, could you explain to me as to why the leaders do not attack on flat stages, whereas the tour is always decided on mountains? Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 15, 2009 Author Share Posted July 15, 2009 Wild, could you explain to me as to why the leaders do not attack on flat stages, whereas the tour is always decided on mountains?The easy answer - the flat stages aren’t hard enough. They don’t cause the all-important selections. Unless there is a crash or the race separates due to the wind the flat stages don’t pose a big threat to the GC riders (general classification - the guys going for the yellow jersey). When the wind whips up as it did on stage 3 riders form ‘echelons’ a sort of protection from the wind. If it is super windy and the riders in the first echelon are motivated the rest of the field could lose 2 or 3 minutes. That’s not to say that general classification (GC) riders can’t lose minutes but for the most part the flat stages are more for the sprinters (green jersey) or the escape artists. To win a single stage at the Tour de France can make a rider’s career (especially if you’re French). It’s the equivalent to scoring a touchdown at the Super Bowl. The key stages are the ‘mountain’ stages and the time trials. Time trials are called the ‘race of truth’ because it’s you against the clock and there’s no place to hide. The strongest riders always give 100% effort. The mountain stages are important too because the courses are so steep. You might lose a few seconds on a flat stage but you could lose 10 minutes on a mountain top finish. Also, keep in mind that if you have the ‘Yellow jersey’ it is sort of unwritten rule that your team has to chase any breakaway that gets away during the day’s stage. Your opposition can sit in while you or your teammates burn energy. Currently, Contador and Lance sit 6 and 8 seconds back from the race leader. That’s the perfect position to be in. Team Astana will assert their dominance the final week of the tour. But who will be in yellow? Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 another great analysis, nice work. plus this part cracked me up. personally i'd love to see lance win it again, would be an awesome story especially after he said he could easily beat all the guys in the tour whilst he was retired.I think that's kind of a silly thing for Lance to say, because the TdF is very much a team sport and no one man can win it without lots of help. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 I think that's kind of a silly thing for Lance to say, because the TdF is very much a team sport and no one man can win it without lots of help.He apologized for him remarks but what he's doing is pretty remarkable. I think he cracked on the field last year because 3 of the top 6 riders were not in the race (levi, contador and klocen)Both Vande Velde and Sastre before last year were strong riders but were never considered true contenders for the overs. I still think Contador is going to win but if Lance lands on the podium he's got to win comeback athlete of the year. Saturday can not get here fast enough. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 Tomorrow is an excellent day to call in sick.If you can't, go here (http://www.steephill.tv/) to get a live feed of the tour anywhere in the world You might know the other guy in the videohttp://www.livestrong.com/lance-armstrong/...1-e47ae2ae3ebd/ Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Tomorrow is an excellent day to call in sick.If you can't, go here (http://www.steephill.tv/) to get a live feed of the tour anywhere in the world You might know the other guy in the videohttp://www.livestrong.com/lance-armstrong/...1-e47ae2ae3ebd/ great link thanks man. i feel like the tour finally gets going tomorrow - its been the cav show thus far and he's still looking good for my prediction of 6 stage wins. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Levi is out. Pure disappointment. Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Levi is out. Pure disappointment.Disappointment because he was 4th overall and a contender or because he is a puss and won't ride with a broken bone in his hand? yeah, I'm sure it wouldn't be very comfortable, but this is the biggest race of the year made even bigger by the return of Lance. Suck it up butter cup. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 18, 2009 Author Share Posted July 18, 2009 Disappointment because he was 4th overall and a contender or because he is a puss and won't ride with a broken bone in his hand? yeah, I'm sure it wouldn't be very comfortable, but this is the biggest race of the year made even bigger by the return of Lance. Suck it up butter cup.Disappointed because he had to drop out. He had a chance to podium and possibly win. I would never crack on anyone who drops out because of an injury. I broke my collarbone while racing. I tried to ride a week later and the pain was unbearable. Even if it was a hairline fracture, it's hard to race in the mountains because you're always pulling up on the handlebars.Today was another day of negative racing. When was the last time a rider gained time after a cat 2 climb? From 4 minutes to nearly 7?Hopefully something will happen on Sunday. The drama has been way better than the race. Usually when you have rider like Lance or Contador you set your guys at the front and ride such a hard tempo you burn the other riders off until there are like 3 or 4 guys left then the leader attacks. But when you've got 2 of the strongest guys on the same team - marking each other the race dynamic changes. Such a strange race. Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 I too broke my collarbone....wish it happened during something as sexy as a race. Instead it was getting broadsided by an ignorant driver. I worked in a warehouse slinging boxes for a week before I went to the doc. I was in the aero bars a couple of weeks later. Sure it wasn't comfortable. If it was the tour when I have a chance to podium you can bet your ass I would not give up the day after it happened. He has to at least give a try imo. Can understand if he is unable to get any meds for it. Would the injections for pain be considered a PED? Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 18, 2009 Author Share Posted July 18, 2009 I too broke my collarbone....wish it happened during something as sexy as a race. Instead it was getting broadsided by an ignorant driver. I worked in a warehouse slinging boxes for a week before I went to the doc. I was in the aero bars a couple of weeks later. Sure it wasn't comfortable. If it was the tour when I have a chance to podium you can bet your ass I would not give up the day after it happened. He has to at least give a try imo. Can understand if he is unable to get any meds for it. Would the injections for pain be considered a PED?When I broke my collarbone I went to the ER. The doctor was a total yardbird. He put the figue 8 (to those who don't know that's the sling you wear when you break your collarbone) backwards. I was there with a couple of friends and they were the ones who knew it was wrong no one at the ER. (I was too doped up to noticed)Actually, an injection would be considered a PED. About 10 years ago a rider got a bee sting in his eye. It ballooned up so much he couldn't see. If he took an injection of cortisone it would have resulted in a positive test. He had to drop out of the tour de france - his name was Jonathon Vaughters - current owner of Team Garmin-Slipstream. Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 the coverage is tilting me today - it seems they are jumping between groups way more than normal. go bradley! Link to post Share on other sites
donk4life 34 Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 So does this stage mean that Lance will probably not be winning, or trying to win the tour? The announcers kept saying he was "defending", I just don't think he could counter the attacks that were being handed out. Or is he still waiting for the Alps? Oh, and Contador is an absolute beast. Link to post Share on other sites
BigLebowski 0 Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 So does this stage mean that Lance will probably not be winning, or trying to win the tour? The announcers kept saying he was "defending", I just don't think he could counter the attacks that were being handed out. Or is he still waiting for the Alps? Oh, and Contador is an absolute beast.Yes, yes, yes, no, yes Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted July 19, 2009 Share Posted July 19, 2009 Great stageContador was an animal and deserved the yellow.Wiggins rode an excellent race, as did Sastre (recovering from the early part of the climb was a testament to his strength),The Schleck bros are a forceCancellara! Wow! Nice ride!Love the shake up in the standingsGot distracted...maybe more comments to come Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 19, 2009 Author Share Posted July 19, 2009 Today was the day that told us who are the pretenders. And they were everyone NOT named Alberto. He was awesome. He showed why he is the strongest. If you can attack from the front it basically says, I'm going - follow me if you can. Nobody could. Believe it or not Armstrong rode well and might ride better now that the pressure is off. I think he will try and win either Mt Ventoux or the time trial. Also, don't be surprise if he attacks. But he still won't win. Wigg-o and Andy Scleck rode well but were on the second tier. An Astana sweep is still possible.The drama is over and the race is over too. Contador only needs to follow Andy Schleck. Wiggo can't attack in the mountains and everyone else is too far back on time. Link to post Share on other sites
donk4life 34 Posted July 20, 2009 Share Posted July 20, 2009 Why would Lance join Astana then? When clearly Alberto, with his age and skill, was going to be a better rider than Lance? Lance is obviously still a strong rider, who could compete for the yellow jersey. I don't understand why he'd a join team with someone who has as much or now, by the looks of it, more skill than him. Link to post Share on other sites
wildspoke 2 Posted July 20, 2009 Author Share Posted July 20, 2009 Why would Lance join Astana then? When clearly Alberto, with his age and skill, was going to be a better rider than Lance? Lance is obviously still a strong rider, who could compete for the yellow jersey. I don't understand why he'd a join team with someone who has as much or now, by the looks of it, more skill than him. One or reason or should I say one person: Johan Bruneel, manager of Team Astanta. Johan was Lance's manager/coach during his 7 tour wins. Johan was the first one even before Lance to believe he could win the Tour. If you take a step back, it's really one of the most successful partnerships in sports. They built a template that allowed them to win 7 tours.If you have few minutes check out this documentary: The Road to Parishttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qsPcmVHifM Also leading up to the Tour, there were rumors Alberto wanted to leave Astana. But Johan would not let it happen. He is too smart. Link to post Share on other sites
donk4life 34 Posted July 20, 2009 Share Posted July 20, 2009 Your knowledge of cycling never ceases to amaze me. Great documentary as well. Link to post Share on other sites
rinswun 6 Posted July 21, 2009 Share Posted July 21, 2009 i watched the full documentary last night. really good stuff but i'd like to have seen a little more race action. really does show how much of an animal lance is when it comes to work ethic. his interview near the end when he is talking about heras and what he can do to improve is maybe the most interesting insight into the pysche of lance - its reasonable to say that he expects people to do all the same things he does but most riders dont and thats why he is a 7 times champ. great link, thanks. anything else worth watching? Link to post Share on other sites
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