Kings Facing Huge River Bet (.25/.50 Nlhe)

[cheetaking 0]

This hand just happened over on AbsolutePoker, and it was a really tough decision, so I want to know what everyone thinks the proper course of action would have been.GAME:AbsolutePoker Game #1494260071, No Limit Hold'em (.25/.50 NL)8 players at tableSeat 6 - SB (Villain) ($49 in chips)Seat 1 - (UTG+2) Cheetaking ($35.65 in chips)READS: I know absolutely nothing about Villain, and he knows nothing about me. He just sat down at the table 1 hand ago, and hasn't played a hand past the flop yet.Villain - Posts small blind $0.25BB - Posts big blind $0.50*** POCKET CARDS ***Dealt to Cheetaking [K K ] *** PRE-FLOP ***(1 Fold)UTG+2 Calls ($0.50)Cheetaking - Raises $2.00 to $2.50(3 folds)Villain - Calls $2.25(2 folds)*** FLOP *** [8 J 8 ] POT: $5.50Villain - ChecksCheetaking - Bets $3 (does anyone bet more here?)Villain - Calls $3*** TURN *** 8 J 8 [3 ] POT: $11.50Villain - Bets $5 (not what I was hoping for, obviously. I was just hoping he had something like A/J, but now he's representing a made flush draw. I don't think I can possibly fold, but I don't feel comfortable raising either, so I flat call. Is this okay?)Cheetaking - Calls $5*** RIVER *** 8 J 8 3 [Q ] POT: $21.50Villain - Bets $22Cheetaking - ?What the heck do I do here? Most people wouldn't make such a huge bet with a made flush, because that bet is screaming "PLEASE FOLD!" at me. Pocket queens with the Q , or just threes, would make it. But then again, I have no idea how the guy plays. Who puts him on the flush, trip 8's, 3's full, or queens full, and folds? And who thinks that he's bluffing or defending a weaker hand like A/J or A/Q? What should I do? Call or fold?

[SwolyswoND 1]

Flop bet sizing is okay, maybe a tad more like $3.50 is fine. I play turn the same.On river I think I call . I really think a FD would have c/r the flop, because most people realize that c/c with a FD especially on a paired board is pretty poor, as it's tough to get paid off. So the thing to figure out is how much of his range includes 8x (which I do think would take this line), or Jx. Honestly even JJ might play this way, didn't want to c/r the flop because he has the deck crushed and you cant continue without an overpair, then JJ leads the turn because he doesnt want your AA/KK to check behind for pot control, and now he blasts the river hoping you have AA/KK or a flush. It could also very well be a naked J or underpair trying to bet you out. I think his range overall is probably {87/89/A8/JT+/99/TT/JJ/random flushes, but discounted}. Can anyone stove our equity versus that or a similar range?

[gobears 0]

I play the hand the same and I fold the river. Against an unknown, he could have all sorts of hands that crush you - if he had AJ, the queen didn't even slow him down. He could be a maniac bluffing the FD/pair of eights but that's about all you beat.Versus an unknown, I tend to be more cautious until I see a few hands.

[jmbreslin 0]

I think his range overall is probably {87/89/A8/JT+/99/TT/JJ/random flushes, but discounted}. Can anyone stove our equity versus that or a similar range?

I read an article yesterday talking about calling bets in this exact situation and the author was advocating a different approach. Instead of figuring out your equity against villain's entire range, which includes both monsters and bluffs, he said you should get in the habit of trying to predict how likely it is that the bet is either a value bet or a bluff. If you think it is most likely a value bet, then determine how your hand stacks up against his range of value betting hands.The difficult thing here is that we have no info on villain at all. The size of the bet looks more like a bluff but since we have no read on villain I think we have to give him benefit of the doubt and assume he is most likely value betting (I think it's +ev in general to give players credit for hands until you have reason to believe otherwise). Then the question is how we stack up against his range of value-betting hands, which would include all the ones you mention above plus Jx and Qx with a diamond (though you should probably tighten those to hands more likely to call a raise OOP, such as broadway combos).

[gobears 0]

I think it's +ev in general to give players credit for hands until you have reason to believe otherwise

I agree with this statement I would also add in 910 to his range. A lot of players will c/c flop and donk turn with a draw OOP to try to get a cheap card. The board is paired along with three diamonds which makes the board pretty bad for a SD but you never know what unknowns will turn up with until you see some history.

[cheetaking 0]

Some good insights so far. I don't know if I want to put him on as wide a range as some people have been suggesting, though. He did fold from the big blind in the previous hand, so I think it's somewhat safe to say that he's probably not a total donk, and narrow his range at least a bit.

[trystero 0]

I second a river laydown, but I do hate folding kings up

[Fade2241 0]

I fold 100% of the time unless this person gives me a reason to call (via a read, etc.) I definitely agree with the comment about giving someone credit for hands until they prove to you a bluff could be in their range. Online you only have betting patterns to go off of and little else so they have to be your primary tell.Results? (maybe I'm too soon to ask, lol)

[NoBBiR 0]

I second a river laydown, but I do hate folding kings up

+1

[Solar 0]

I'm folding. I think the simplest answer is correct here. He probably has a flush. He bet so much on the river because you must have a pretty decent hand to flat the turn.

[cheetaking 0]

Thanks, everyone. I especially found jmbreslin's post to be interesting, as that is kinda why I was considering calling, because I really didn't think that any hand would make that huge of a bet as a value bet.Here's what actually happened:At the time, I was kind of on tilt after taking a couple of tough beats, and then moreso for not getting an ounce of action with pocket kings in the previous hand (yes, I had them 2 hands in a row...,) so at the time I had not even considered the possibility of a full house betting for value, and had reasoned that the odds of him making such a huge bet with a flush were very slim, and therefore I was really only afraid of A/8 for trips or a total mis-read.I called, figuring it to be a stone bluff or a busted nut flush draw on the turn, and luckily I was right, and he turned over A/J with the ace of diamonds. It was only in retrospect that I realized how marginal of a call that had been, and that he could easily have made those exact bets with pocket 3's, pocket J's, or pocket Q's, and I would have lost almost every chip in front of me. So although I won the hand, I really didn't feel like it was the right one to make. Thanks for the help, everyone! I probably would have folded too if I was thinking clearly at the time.

[tskillz187 0]

I think you hafta raise the turn here and fold to a reraise obv. You need to get value from pair + draw hands and 9T and stuff like that, as is he's freezing you. By raising the turn he's usually going to check the river to you and you get to showdown for free and also charge some draws here. I'd check back river if checked to as he could definitely have trip 8s or something and I think going for really thin value is tough there.In your hand I'd fold river, a lot of stuff has made it, the flush made it on the turn and the straight makes it on the river. You're not beating much, unless he turned a decent hand into a bluff or doesn't have very good hand reading skills. The fact that he turned AdJx into a bluff here is pretty weird, he's probably a pretty bad player and didn't know what to do so just hit pot. Trying to make people fold overpairs at $50nl is rough, as we see right here. I'm not sure he was trying to get you to fold an overpair though, if he was it's a pretty advanced concept to be doing at $50nl like I said.

[cheetaking 0]

I think you hafta raise the turn here and fold to a reraise obv. You need to get value from pair + draw hands and 9T and stuff like that, as is he's freezing you. By raising the turn he's usually going to check the river to you and you get to showdown for free and also charge some draws here. I'd check back river if checked to as he could definitely have trip 8s or something and I think going for really thin value is tough there.In your hand I'd fold river, a lot of stuff has made it, the flush made it on the turn and the straight makes it on the river. You're not beating much, unless he turned a decent hand into a bluff or doesn't have very good hand reading skills. The fact that he turned AdJx into a bluff here is pretty weird, he's probably a pretty bad player and didn't know what to do so just hit pot. Trying to make people fold overpairs at $50nl is rough, as we see right here. I'm not sure he was trying to get you to fold an overpair though, if he was it's a pretty advanced concept to be doing at $50nl like I said.

I don't think I agree with you about raising on the turn.Consider this: If I re-raise on the turn, any number of hands from a set of 8's to a full house, to a mere semi-bluff flush draw are going to push all-in over the top, a bet which would definitely force me to fold. If I flat call, now the draws and the trip 8's are likely checking the river, and made hands are probably betting half the pot again, which means that I actually get more information about his hand by flat calling. Also, If I'm going to throw away $10 by re-raising, and he's probably betting half the pot (also $10) on the river with a made hand, I'm losing the same amount of money either way. Plus since I'm likely shutting down the defensive bets of trips and busted draws, I'm gaining equity. Trip 8's now win only $5 instead of $15, and flush draws are more likely to check it down rather than try to take a stand. So in this case, I think re-raising would be a bad mistake. If I was out-of-position I'd probably do it, but not here IMO.

[tskillz187 0]

Consider this: If I re-raise on the turn, any number of hands from a set of 8's to a full house, to a mere semi-bluff flush draw are going to push all-in over the top

I think he's pretty much never pushing a semi-bluff flush draw unless it's the Ad. But yeah I didn't realize your stack size in the first place, so if you raise turn you're going to hafta call a push. If he's gonna shove trips and sets, thats fine, right?

If I flat call, now the draws and the trip 8's are likely checking the river, and made hands are probably betting half the pot again, which means that I actually get more information about his hand by flat calling. Also, If I'm going to throw away $10 by re-raising, and he's probably betting half the pot (also $10) on the river with a made hand, I'm losing the same amount of money either way.

Why would he only bet half pot with his value hands? That river is a great card to pot for value. If you had a flush draw you're there, if you had a straight draw you're there, and if you have trips you're having a tough fold. He should basically always pot his value range here because your calling with a lot of hands in this spot. I mean, you called with an overpair, if he can't value-pot this river he's making a huge mistake.

Plus since I'm likely shutting down the defensive bets of trips and busted draws, I'm gaining equity. Trip 8's now win only $5 instead of $15, and flush draws are more likely to check it down rather than try to take a stand. So in this case, I think re-raising would be a bad mistake. If I was out-of-position I'd probably do it, but not here IMO.

I don't know why villain is aggro enough to semi-bluff shove a diamond on the turn, but not aggro enough to bluff the river with missed diamonds? Trip 8s bets this river a lot. Calling has some merits, like keeping his range wide and letting him bluff. Plus the fact that you should be stacking off $35 stack if you raise to $15, but yeah I think some of your reasons are not accurate.

[cheetaking 0]

My thinking is that I bet the flop after pf raising, so he could very well think I'm just making a continuation bet. Now if I raise on a scare card on the turn, it looks extremely defensive. It does not look like I have anything that can call a re-raise, so I think he very well might read a mid-strength hand on my part and try to force me out with some kind of semi-bluff. By flat calling, I have to have something in order to do it, which will make him think twice about bluffing the next street. That's what I was thinking anyway. Again, all of this is just IMO. I am the one asking the question, after all, so maybe I'm wrong.I do have legitimate reasons for thinking he will just bet half the pot with a made hand though. Because if he has a made hand, he has already made it by the turn. And on the turn, he did indeed bet bet about half of the pot. So I have to think that if he does have a made hand, and is therefore betting the turn for value, he'll probably make a very similar value bet on the river.

[Sens-Eh 0]

I don't necessarily agree that if he made a half pot bet on the turn, he will do so again on the river with a made hand.Playing from the villians perspective actually his all-in bet is a great move with a flush or even more so a fullhouse. If I have a boat on that board, I am often shoving that river too, looking to pick off flushes. A value bet is mostly only going to be called by sets and flushes. And those same hands are also likely to call for a full pot size+ bet.... Those hands are the ones mostly likely still hanging around after the turn - so get full value from them. The guy with the nut flush draw was going to be folding no matter what size the bet - so don't worry about getting value from those sorts of hands...in this case, you said you didn't have any real history with the villian. So it is tougher to say here - - But I can tell you that the shove by a regular player with the near nuts into someone who is unknown is a standard play. People love to be suspicious of oversize bets, and will look you up. They don't have to do it everytime, but they will often enough compared to the slightly higher percentage of people who will call a smaller value bet.