Dubey 1,035 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Hey all, my first time in here.I'm looking to bet on the washington Capitals coming back from 3-1 to win their series against the rangers.Anyone want to bet? I'm looking to wager $10-30, historically, teams down 3-1 win 8.6% of the time, or about 10.6-1 against. I'm looking to get 7-1 on my bet. looking to bet $10-30Also willing to make the Same bet on San Jose coming back to win their series against Anaheim. 7-1 alsoAlso willing to bet $10-30 on Chicago Winning their series against Calgary. even money.I can't seem to find any vegas lines on these bets, so I'm not sure if my lines are way off or not.pokerstars transfers or Interac e-mail transfers (canadians only I think).since I'm new, I'll transfer up front as long as someone can vouch for you Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 not to kill your action but the current price for Washington is only +295.From the greek.comHockey Futures EXIT 2009 NHL Playoffs - Series Prices 4/24/2009 6:05 PM Washington Capitals vs New York Rangers 363 Washington Capitals +295 364 New York Rangers -465 4/26/2009 4:05 PM New Jersey Devils vs Carolina Hurricanes 365 New Jersey Devils -495 366 Carolina Hurricanes +305 4/25/2009 2:05 PM Philadelphia Flyers vs Pittsburgh Penguins 367 Philadelphia Flyers +385 368 Pittsburgh Penguins -615 4/25/2009 9:05 PM San Jose Sharks v Anaheim Ducks 369 San Jose Sharks +285 370 Anaheim Ducks -445 4/25/2009 8:00 PM Chicago Blackhawks vs Calgary Flames 375 Chicago Blackhawks -145 376 Calgary Flames +125 Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 wow, thats low, not sure I feel THAT confident. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 I'll take Carolina to come back against the devils for +305 if anyone's interested.$10-25 Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 its pretty interesting..The vegas odds feel that the Sharks and Caps have a better chance of winning their series down 3-1 than the Canes and Flyers who are only down 3-2.Interesting. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Hey all, my first time in here.I'm looking to bet on the washington Capitals coming back from 3-1 to win their series against the rangers.Anyone want to bet? I'm looking to wager $10-30, historically, teams down 3-1 win 8.6% of the time, or about 10.6-1 against. I'm looking to get 7-1 on my bet. looking to bet $10-30Also willing to make the Same bet on San Jose coming back to win their series against Anaheim. 7-1 alsoAlso willing to bet $10-30 on Chicago Winning their series against Calgary. even money.I can't seem to find any vegas lines on these bets, so I'm not sure if my lines are way off or not.pokerstars transfers or Interac e-mail transfers (canadians only I think).since I'm new, I'll transfer up front as long as someone can vouch for youOverall historical comebacks at 8.6% is a meaningless statistic for this prop, since that includes series where the team thats down was a dog to start with. Here the Caps were a huge favorite in the series (I was the only one out of 17 to pick the Rangers in the bracket pool), and they are still (based on the current line) a 2:1 favorite to win each game.That makes the Caps only about a 3:1 dog to come back. (Just saw the Greeks line, confirming I wasnt far off)I'll give you 4:1. Transfer 25 now, Ill send back 125 if the Caps win. vbnautilus just got paid $75 on a bet we had (albeit delayed since I was in the hospital for most of the last 2 months.)Alternatively Zach could hold both of our stakes if he's willing. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Canada-Belarus O/U 5.5The over was -270!Why wouldnt they have raised the total number?Just for kicks, I bet on Canada -3.5goals. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 its pretty interesting..The vegas odds feel that the Sharks and Caps have a better chance of winning their series down 3-1 than the Canes and Flyers who are only down 3-2.Interesting.Makes sense though. they think the Sharks and Caps are about 2:1 favorites to win each game (way off imo), or 30% to win 3 straight. Even at coin flips to win each of two games the Canes and Flyers would only be 25% to comeback,and they really think they are dogs in each game. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 Makes sense though. they think the Sharks and Caps are about 2:1 favorites to win each game (way off imo), or 30% to win 3 straight. Even at coin flips to win each of two games the Canes and Flyers would only be 25% to comeback,and they really think they are dogs in each game.I agree with your logic. One thing the odds dont take into account is current play. Yes the Sharks and Caps were the better team in the regular season, but both of them are getting owned in this series.meanwhile the Canes and Flyers have played well enough to be up in the series..IMOI maybe wrong though. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Canada-Belarus O/U 5.5The over was -270!Why wouldnt they have raised the total number?Just for kicks, I bet on Canada -3.5goals.Hope you bet the whole roll! And how the hell is Jason Blake eligible for the US team? Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 Hope you bet the whole roll! And how the hell is Jason Blake eligible for the US team? what do you mean? Link to post Share on other sites
bdc30 0 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 wtf? sports betting challenge thread is in general - this is rte...stop allowing people to come in asking for action then debating prices with them Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 Dubey is a great guy..He just asked a simple question. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Overall historical comebacks at 8.6% is a meaningless statistic for this prop, since that includes series where the team thats down was a dog to start with. Here the Caps were a huge favorite in the series (I was the only one out of 17 to pick the Rangers in the bracket pool), and they are still (based on the current line) a 2:1 favorite to win each game.That makes the Caps only about a 3:1 dog to come back. (Just saw the Greeks line, confirming I wasnt far off)I'll give you 4:1. Transfer 25 now, Ill send back 125 if the Caps win. vbnautilus just got paid $75 on a bet we had (albeit delayed since I was in the hospital for most of the last 2 months.)Alternatively Zach could hold both of our stakes if he's willing.I'll take 4-1 on the caps.I'll transfer up front, stars name?I will be transferring after the game starts though, since I work until 7 EST. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 wtf? sports betting challenge thread is in general - this is rte...stop allowing people to come in asking for action then debating prices with themsorry, I actually posted this in teh sports betting thread and someone said I might get better action here.I thought this was like the hockey forum version of the sports betting thread? I guess I was wrong, like I said, first time in here. For future reference, What exactly goes on in this thread then, if not sports betting? Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 sorry, I actually posted this in teh sports betting thread and someone said I might get better action here.I thought this was like the hockey forum version of the sports betting thread? I guess I was wrong, like I said, first time in here. For future reference, What exactly goes on in this thread then, if not sports betting?We have a consortium of 20 people. we all ponied up $100 in the beginning of the season and we make bets at bowmans.com .4 of us including me, have access to the account, we come in here to discuss , debate bets.We have had a not great year as our roll is now $950. Link to post Share on other sites
bdc30 0 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 I didn't mean to dump on dubey at all - don't know him but he seems to know his hockey and has some gambool so seems alright by me...lolMaybe we need our own betting thread in this forum? Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 wow, I feel like a donkey now...*slowly backs out of thread*sounds like a cool idea though, hit me up if you are looking for another member for your consortium next year. Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 I didn't mean to dump on dubey at all - don't know him but he seems to know his hockey and has some gambool so seems alright by me...lolMaybe we need our own betting thread in this forum?good idea.damn, I should have bet the whole roll on Canada! 6-1 over Belarus. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 good idea.damn, I should have bet the whole roll on Canada! 6-1 over Belarus.are u watching?How is Schenn and White playing..And I heard Grabovski scored Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Sorry, I think I was part of muddying up our RTE thread with my off topic posts.So to get us back on track, I believe Copernicus threw out NYR and the under. Do we want to bet on those? Again, Im questioning why so much on NYR (+175), but I like the under, and am willing to go on that one. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 Sorry, I think I was part of muddying up our RTE thread with my off topic posts.So to get us back on track, I believe Copernicus threw out NYR and the under. Do we want to bet on those? Again, Im questioning why so much on NYR (+175), but I like the under, and am willing to go on that one.That number seems a little whacky..Almost like they want you to bet the Rangers..I am ok with the Under..I will support it..Not so much the Rangers to win. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 I agree with your logic. One thing the odds dont take into account is current play. Yes the Sharks and Caps were the better team in the regular season, but both of them are getting owned in this series.meanwhile the Canes and Flyers have played well enough to be up in the series..IMOI maybe wrong though.Youre not wrong...except maybe that the Caps were the better team during the season....they were in the middle of the season, but that changed after the Rangers coaching and player acquisitions. Link to post Share on other sites
pezeveng 207 Posted April 24, 2009 Share Posted April 24, 2009 Sports betting 101 class is in session.Just to inform you guys on how the books come up with the series price when a team is down 3-2 such as the capital.Game 5 Caps -220Game 6 Caps -105Game 7 Caps -270 ( I know this looks high but Iam thinking the number will be close to this)3 team parlay (-270x-105x-270) = 2.89-1Thats how its calculated, I think the only game I might be off on is game 6 they might be +110 which would change the payout to 3-1.YES I FINALLY LOOK LIKE A MATH GUY.I failed grade 9 and 10 math. Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted April 24, 2009 Author Share Posted April 24, 2009 nice math sev..I think we thoroughly missed Copernicus in the regular season..His insight and analysis is really good IMO..Welcome back buddy. Link to post Share on other sites
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