Ncaa Football Wk3

[Tactical Bear 3]

I am stuck about 40x so far on college football. That's about 10 games under the .500 mark, and there haven't even been that many games yet...Well, there are finally some anti-public favorites I can fill my card out with. Stanford +12 at TCU and Baylor +2.5 at home against Washington are getting more than half the action. Since when are people lining up to take Stanford and Baylor? Leans: Houston, Duke, VaTech, USF, BYU, UConn (barf), Central Mich., TCU, Wazzu UNC, OSU, Toledo, Maryland, South Carolina, New Mexico, SMU, Rice That's 18 leans, including 9 favorites, and I am leaving off some of the babies. I'm looking forward to laying the points on the road with a Wazzu team that missed covering by more than four-times the 15.5 point margin.Good luck. I'm playing all of these, probably. 18 x 4 = 72. Considering college football bankroll is at 60x. Hope I don't go 0-15 to start...

[powerpoker 0]

I am stuck about 40x so far on college football. That's about 10 games under the .500 mark, and there haven't even been that many games yet...Well, there are finally some anti-public favorites I can fill my card out with. Stanford +12 at TCU and Baylor +2.5 at home against Washington are getting more than half the action. Since when are people lining up to take Stanford and Baylor? Leans: Houston, Duke, VaTech, USF, BYU, UConn (barf), Central Mich., TCU, Wazzu UNC, OSU, Toledo, Maryland, South Carolina, New Mexico, SMU, Rice That's 18 leans, including 9 favorites, and I am leaving off some of the babies. I'm looking forward to laying the points on the road with a Wazzu team that missed covering by more than four-times the 15.5 point margin.Good luck. I'm playing all of these, probably. 18 x 4 = 72. Considering college football bankroll is at 60x. Hope I don't go 0-15 to start...

Thats a shame...i was hoping to get more pts. with baylor, wazzu is complete garbage as a football team, the only team that might be worse that plays in a BCS conference is the cuse.

[powerpoker 0]

Leans: Houston, Duke, VaTech, USF, BYU, UConn (barf), Central Mich., TCU, Wazzu UNC, OSU, Toledo, Maryland, South Carolina, New Mexico, SMU, Rice

If i played every game on the board i would also lean this way as well.The bolded ones obv.

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

Why?...any reasoning to back this up, just curious. I doubt ill play the game, just tryin to pick your brain.

Just playin devils advocate here, ISU blew Kent St. off the field and FIU is one of the bottom 5 teams in the country....this should be all in the NCAA thread not the NFL...lol..just sayin

I'm a HUGE Iowa fan, so it might seem a bit odd coming from me, but it's for a lot of different reasons. One, the game's always close. Two, neither team's got a proven quarterback, but Iowa State's Bates is going to be the most explosive player on the field whenever he steps on. We're gonna see 4 quarterbacks in this game; no one's going to pull away by 2 TDs. Iowa never, ever gets up for this game like State does; it's their Super Bowl each year.Iowa State's also blocked two punts, forced 7 fumbles and has 5 picks. Iowa's not even in the same area code when it comes to forcing turnovers. Also, I take absolutely nothing away from either team's first two games..but Iowa State was only up 28-21 on Kent State and Iowa beating up the New England Female Teachers College just doesn't really do anything for me.But most importantly..

Final word: Iowa is getting all the action. Therefore: no play on Iowa no matter what unless you're bad at being a Sports Gambler, or hang out with the Ultimate Cappers down at Beta Theta Pi.

This. There's no reason to pick Iowa, financially speaking. Also, Wang, I'm really surprised you think Michigan State doesn't cover 14.5. I probably wouldn't touch UAB/Tenn, either.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Also, Wang, I'm really surprised you think Michigan State doesn't cover 14.5. I probably wouldn't touch UAB/Tenn, either.

I actually like Sparty this year. I thought they played a solid Cal team pretty well on the road, and if they get a few breaks they could very easily have won that game. I came away from their opener reasonably impressed. They demolished Eastern last week, which doesn't say much of anything except that they demolished Eastern last week.But, all this being said, 17 (the number I'm seeing most places) looks a little short/suspicious for a solid Big Ten program at home against a Sun Belt squad, and the weird public gangbang on Sparty ("17 OMG BACKUPS COVER 17 LOL!"; nearly 80% wagerline consensus) makes me lean FAU. Actually, the more I think about it, the more this is becoming a pretty playable game. What's with all the public love for MSU? Doesn't make sense. Ringer is awesome, but that isn't a great football team or anything.Ugh, strong lean, FAU.Wang

[YourDaddy 0]

Washington State Sucks why would you ever bet on them

[YourDaddy 0]

powerpoker knows about goin 0-15

[DinkDonk 1]

your a fraud mr powerpoker

Washington State Sucks why would you ever bet on them

powerpoker knows about goin 0-15

Entire postography of one "YourDaddy"- clearly on his way to a Hall of Fame FCP posting career.

[powerpoker 0]

I actually like Sparty this year. I thought they played a solid Cal team pretty well on the road, and if they get a few breaks they could very easily have won that game. I came away from their opener reasonably impressed. They demolished Eastern last week, which doesn't say much of anything except that they demolished Eastern last week.But, all this being said, 17 (the number I'm seeing most places) looks a little short/suspicious for a solid Big Ten program at home against a Sun Belt squad, and the weird public gangbang on Sparty ("17 OMG BACKUPS COVER 17 LOL!"; nearly 80% wagerline consensus) makes me lean FAU. Actually, the more I think about it, the more this is becoming a pretty playable game. What's with all the public love for MSU? Doesn't make sense. Ringer is awesome, but that isn't a great football team or anything.Ugh, strong lean, FAU.Wang

I dont know if has more to do with the love for mich st. or the track record of FAU when they step up in class on the road. I think the number is about right so im laying off the game.I hate when i break down games and i love a ton of favorites...espically from the matchup breakdown. The pros this week im leaning the dog way. Ill have a breakdown of my picks before game time of all plays.

[powerpoker 0]

Kansas @ S. Florida (-3.5)- I think this line is a little low and all the action is coming in on Kansas simply based off last week’s performances by both teams. Kansas pitched a shutout at home yet they struggled in the first half of the game. They rely heavily on the pass and S.F. has a solid defensive unit. If S.F. can shutdown or at least limit the pass game they should be able to contain the jayhawks offense. S.F. came out of last week with an OT win against UCF, but dont let the final score fool you. S.F. dominated the game and let up two late TD’s to UCF. If they finished up the game like they played the first 3 quarters it would have been over a 3 td victory instead of a squeaker in OT. Both teams are returning most of their entire offenses from last year but the difference will be on defense where Kansas lost their best secondary player Aquib Talib in the draft. S.F. should be hyped up for this game being on national TV. and there at home. S.F. -3/3.5Wazzu @ Baylor (-2)- This game opened with Wazzu as the favorite and quickly jumped over to the other side rightfully so. Besides Syracuse Wazzu might be the worst team from a BCS conference this year. They got blown out in their first two games at home by a combined score of 105-16. I want no part of this team as of right now. They cant run or pass and they cant stop the run or the pass. The write up of the first two games they played is much like this one. They are a completely inept team that has no clue what there doing. Baylor on the other hand got crushed by Wake Forest in the first game of the year but the final score didn’t dictate exactly how that game went. Baylor put up yards against Wake but committed 5 TO’s in the process. You will pretty much lose every game no matter who your playing when you turn the ball over 5x. Last week their offense got back on track against 1-AA opponent putting up over 50 points. Don’t forget about this game being moved up 1 day because of hurricane Ike which should further mess up the practice and travel schedule of Wazzu. Baylor -2Oregon (-8) @ Purdue- Oregon is coming off of two very impressive victories at home and now have to travel to Purdue to put their high scoring offense to the test. I heard a quote the other day that all 3 QB’s that Oregon uses said they want to score a TD everytime they are on the field and they don’t care how many pts they are up by they just want to pile it on. Well that’s pretty much what they are doing. Last week they were up on Utah St. at halftime 38-14 and came out in the second half blazing putting up 3 more TD’s in the third quarter. I don’t see purdues defense shutting this team down and figure that purdue would need to put around 30 pts to hang inside the number here. Oregon also has a very under rated defense which should be able to contain purdues offense. Purdues defense also let up 300 yds of offense against 1-AA northern Colorado in the only game they played this year. Oregon (-8)Georgia (-7) @ South Carolina- Last week could have been a flat spot for Georgia playing against CMU at home with their conference opener and rival right around the corner on the road against the gamecocks. Like I said it could have been a flat spot but in no way was that the case. GA came out blazing on offense and defense jumping out to a 28-7 halftime lead and never looking back. S.C. on the other hand opened their conference play last week vs Vandy and just looked bad at the QB position. This week Spurrier stated that both Beecher and Smelley will get playing time which is great for playing against S.C. There should be a few turnovers by both QB’s to set up short fields for GA to work with. S.C. defense is stout and GA might have trouble scoring on long drives but if the field is short for their offense it could lead to some easy pts. Simply put GA is loaded on both sides of the ball while SC only has a solid defense but will have trouble scoring. This is also a big revenge game for the bulldogs. I don’t like laying a TD on the road in the SEC but I believe this matchup favors GA to much not to do it. GA -7 buy down to 6.5Air Force @ Houston (-2)- This is a bad situational spot for A.F. coming off a road game in conference and having to play Utah next week another big conference rival. These score points in different ways, Houston through the air and A.F. on the ground. This game sets up like the Ball St. and Navy game last week with the passing team winning. I think the same will happen here even though Houston is weak on defense. Their QB play this year has been great with a 9-0 TD to INT ratio and if that continues against his falcon D it will be hard for the A.F. to come back by having to run. Houston gets it done in this one. Houston -2Penn State (-27.5) vs Syracuse- First off cuse is the worst and I repeat worst BCS conference team in the nation. This cant be a welcome sight to see big bad PSU come into town. Make no mistake this line is huge for a road favorite but as long as PSU doesn’t take this game for granted there is no way they shouldn’t score 50+ in this game. They obviously have the advantage at every single position on the field at all times and the coaching matchup is a joke. Greg Robinson will be fired at the end of the year make no mistake about that, how he survived this long I have no idea. Last week in their home opener they let a MAC team put up 478 yards of offense and 42 pts against them. PSU and Joe Pa have recently been known to run up the score on lesser opponents and I don’t see any reason they shouldn’t here. I thought this line was a little low when it first came out I was expecting to see a line of around 32-35 so I feel there is value laying almost 4 td’s (crazy I know). So unless both the cuse have the game of their lives AND PSU doesn’t show up I have a lot of confidence in this play. By the way there will be more PSU fans in the crowd than Syracuse fans so its almost a “home” game for PSU. PSU -27.5Central Michigan -3 @ Ohio- This line is a clear reflection to last weeks results for both teams. If CMU hung tough with GA and Ohio got blown out by OSU this line would have opened up around CMU -6 or -7. Instead we get a cheap price with CMU. CMU battles for the MAC crown every year as they place a lot of emphasis on winning the MAC and don’t really care for out of conference games. Ohio is a middle of the pack MAC squad that played an OSU team last week that was clearly in look ahead mode with their matchup with USC this weekend. Late in the game last week Ohio really thought they would do the unthinkable and beat OSU but after two costly mistakes they lose a heartbreaker and I don’t know how a young team overcomes that to face a CMU squad that can put points on the board at anytime. If CMU can score early against this team it will take what little life they have left and put it to rest as Ohio cant score points in bunches their offense is not set up to make big comebacks. CMU -3California (-15) @ Maryland- Lets start this out by stating the obvious…Maryland stinks. Last week MD went down south to play MTSU and put up a whoping 14 pts of offense while letting up 24 pts and 402 yds of offense from a bottom of the barrel Sun Belt squad. The week before they managed 14 pts against 1-AA Delaware. Lets face it this offense is anemic. I think this game sets up like the USC/VA game in week 1 where even though its rough for PAC-10 teams to come cross country to play an early game, the good teams rise to the occasion and Cal is a good team. MD has turned the ball over 5 times in two weeks vs. inferior opponents while Cal has managed to have 5 take-a-ways in two games vs. BCS conference opponents. They have been dominant running the ball in both games and should have an easy time against MD moving the ball at will. The main concern like I stated before was the fact of the early game on the east coast, but this week coach Tedford has put his players on east coast time with early wake up calls to prepare them for the time change. Again like I said last week when Cal played Wazzou, one team can score the other can’t. Cal -15 Oklahoma (-20.5) @ Wash- Besides the obvious talent differences between these two teams, OK has 22 players that are very talented…Wash has Jake Locker. . I could break down Ok’s defense vs. the sub-par offense of Washington and tell you that Washington has virtually 0 chance of stopping the OU wideouts or the running game with there undersized D-line, but that seems obvious. I rather look at this from pure emotion standpoint. There is no way Wash could get up emotionally for this game. There a young team and when young teams lose a heartbreaker they tend to be down on themselves at least for a week or so and Willingham is not a good enough coach to inspire them to get ready for this game. As soon as Wash falls behind 14-0 early they could easily quit and look forward till next week. OK has looked like a number 1 team in both games they played so far this year and I doubt they will let up on the weaker team since Bob Stoops knows they have to crush teams in order to gain enough votes to play for a BCS championship. Lay the wood here with OK on the road. OK -20.5Arizona (-10) vs. New Mexico- Here again we find a match up that features a team on the rise that can score at will and one team that is struggling on offense and had to manage two late TD’s last week, against a prevent defense to lose again at home to a bad Texas A&M team. Until those two late TD’s this team produced a grand total of 13 pts in the first 7 quarters of the season. That doesn’t sound promising against a team that can put up 14 points in about 5 minutes, if they so choose. Arizona has surprised me on defense this year holding their opponents to less than 350 total yards combined in their first two games. New Mexico should again have trouble finding the endzone in this game facing their toughest team this year. Their QB’s have combined for 4 INT’s and 0 TD’s this year, and that’s not a team I would like to back only getting 10 points but I wouldn’t mind betting against them. This game could turn into another blowout win for Zona as the marketplace has yet to catch up to this team. Arizona -10 buy down to -9.5 I know everyone of these games are favorites but after looking at all the games I felt these were the best games based on team situation and also matchup wise. Some of the very public teams such as OK and Cal are easily inflated prices but even with the inflation the teams they are playing are inferior enough to let us cover the inflated numbers. Good luck to all. NFL plays should be done and posted sometime Friday or Saturday night.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I know everyone of these games are favorites but after looking at all the games I felt these were the best games based on team situation and also matchup wise. Some of the very public teams such as OK and Cal are easily inflated prices but even with the inflation the teams they are playing are inferior enough to let us cover the inflated numbers. Good luck to all. NFL plays should be done and posted sometime Friday or Saturday night.

I'm willing to ignore it when you make square, ultra-public selections week after week, but this sentence right here simply can not stand. You realize that's just flat wrong, right? That's it's nonsense? "I realize I'm not getting the correct pot odds to call, but even though I'm not getting the correct odds to call, I am still getting the correct odds to call."I only started talking about sports-betting in here because I wanted the people on this board to have a chance to learn, but comments like the one above make that difficult. So take whomever you want -- tease UGA, Baylor, and Cal, whatever (clinking beer glass emoticon) -- but at least make some sense while you're doing it. Either admit you're gambling for action and don't have any value, or challenge the basic assumptions of the framework. Acknowledging it and dismissing it for a bullshit reason is irresponsible

[YourDaddy 0]

(Kansas Vs. South Florida -3.5) I dont mind laying the points here at all and you guys should listen to mr powerpoker more often he knows what hes talking about. There is no no doubt both these offenses can score but it will be up to the defensive side of the ball. The only offense that matters to me in the game is rushing and with Kansas's defense they have given up 107 ypg against mediocre if not bad teams and S.F. runs for 229 ypg. I also consider the fact that Kansas had the lead most of the time in their other games and their opponents had to pass more and they still give up over 100 ypg. S.F. rushing the ball will keep Kansas off the field. S.F. also has held thier opponents to a 44 pass completion percentage and that is Kansas's game. The public is also looking at last weeks game that S.F. played UCF which was a rivalry and we all know those games are close for the most part. UCF has a underated defense and it was no problem for S.F. moving the ball plus they got hurt with 2 late TD's. Not to mention this is a big home game for S.F. and everyone will be watching they wont disappoint.....Lay the 3.5

[powerpoker 0]

I'm willing to ignore it when you make square, ultra-public selections week after week, but this sentence right here simply can not stand. You realize that's just flat wrong, right? That's it's nonsense? "I realize I'm not getting the correct pot odds to call, but even though I'm not getting the correct odds to call, I am still getting the correct odds to call."I only started talking about sports-betting in here because I wanted the people on this board to have a chance to learn, but comments like the one above make that difficult. So take whomever you want -- tease UGA, Baylor, and Cal, whatever (clinking beer glass emoticon) -- but at least make some sense while you're doing it. Either admit you're gambling for action and don't have any value, or challenge the basic assumptions of the framework. Acknowledging it and dismissing it for a bullshit reason is irresponsible

Ok i'd admit that was a pretty shitty sentence and I should not have wrote it, but I did and I cant really change it now. Basically what I was trying to get across was that some of these very public teams do have inflated prices but those prices have still not caught up to what the numbers should be. Usually at the beginning of the season, handicappers as well as bookmakers are still analyzing teams and it might take 3 or 4 games to get those numbers right. Does 20.5 seem inflated for OK, to an extent but if it was over 24 then it would be at a point where i wouldnt want to play it. Also I learned about your style of betting a few years ago and I have a lot of respect for it, yet i dont think thats the only way to cap games. By just saying 80% of the public is on this side or that so i have to take the other side without any other reasoning just doesnt fly with me. I have no problem going against the public but I also like to look at box scores and break it down that way as well. There are games every week that the final scores do not reflect how the game was actually played. To me the breakdown of box scores and matchups on the field and scheduling mean more to me than just if the public is betting on it because they are OK, Cal or whatever team you want to thrown in there. Ppl out there do see these games and just jump on them because there a "name" team and without other reasoning behind it there play makes no sense. I try to put in time to break some of this stuff down to show that I'm not just betting a "public" team because they are who they are. There are games that get a ton of action all week one way and barely have any takeback to the supposed sharp side the other way, does that mean that not only the squares but the sharps are on the same side? It does happen. I like the fact that this gambling section got started, and I like the fact that you have gotten more ppl involved in looking at games from a betting perspective, and the only reason i put my analysis of games in there is to show them that there is another way besides the contrarian view to look at. Like i said i believe in the contrarian way, it is effective, but only if there are stats and or other reasons to back it up. I also think that college football is completely different than the NFL when you look at these teams. In college there are teams that are 30-40 pts better than thier opponent on a week in and week out basis. Teams in the NFL are more closely matched to each other say for a few teams. In the NFL such high lines such as NE laying 16 in week 1 is insane. I tend to take more dogs in the pros because of this. On sunday I can tell you that I already like at least half the dogs on the card simply because the favorites are the more public of teams. I still will take into account the matchups, injuries, and scheduling of all games I play in both college and pro. Your process is different than mine but it doesnt mean that either process is wrong. The last thing im tyring to do here, is give bad advice on games and plays i make. I thought that by putting the reasoning behind each play i was making sense of why I am playing a certain game and looking at a certain side and not just listing a bunch of teams with 0 evidence to back it up. Just remember that the public is wrong over the long term, but there are some publicly bet teams that do cover, you just have to know when to jump off the bus when the lines get to high.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Matt Grothe -3.5 +104 (3)Jim Leavitt -3.5 +106 (3)My analysis:"Mark Mangino is morbidly obese."I bet the book makers didn't see that one coming.

[YourDaddy 0]

I have no problem with the contrarian betting style but i also believe you have to have something to back it up other than just betting a side because the public likes the other side thats just plain stupid. An example would be this USF game last i checked 70 % of the people were betting on Kansas and i like the other side but i have reasons just like mr powerpoker. Now it does make me feel better about my pick because all the moneys on Kansas but at the same time I have a reason for taking USF not just because everyone is betting Kansas. You should at least have something that makes you like the other side other than where the public is.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I have no problem with the contrarian betting style but i also believe you have to have something to back it up other than just betting a side because the public likes the other side thats just plain stupid. An example would be this USF game last i checked 70 % of the people were betting on Kansas and i like the other side but i have reasons just like mr powerpoker. Now it does make me feel better about my pick because all the moneys on Kansas but at the same time I have a reason for taking USF not just because everyone is betting Kansas. You should at least have something that makes you like the other side other than where the public is.

Why? Why is taking a side PURELY because the public is overwhelmingly on the other side "just plan stupid?" This is not a rhetorical question; I am looking for an answer.

[YourDaddy 0]

I bet if you took all the contrarian plays and actually broke them down you would win more games than playing them "all" blind buddy. Example: you have 10 contrarian plays and you break them all down and only like 5 of them and you just play the 5 and have reasons for them besides what the public is betting on i believe you odds are better to win because you actually did some research.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I bet if you took all the contrarian plays and actually broke them down you would win more games than playing them "all" blind buddy. Example: you have 10 contrarian plays and you break them all down and only like 5 of them and you just play the 5 and have reasons for them besides what the public is betting on i believe you odds are better to win because you actually did some research.

That's not an answer. Seriously. And why is "all" in quotes? And what do you mean by the word "like" in the above example? As in "can think of sports-handicapping reasons to play the side that's getting the least action?" And just because I don't break down USF's offense and KU's defense doesn't mean I don't pay close attention to the important factors that make each potential side a play, a big play, or a pass. It's just that I know what the important factors are, and most people don't.

[YourDaddy 0]

I dont have time for this back and forth shit mr teddy bear you just keep playing your games how you play em and good luck to ya, i was just stating a point. Maybe some day you'll have a actual reason you can come up with on a game. I have to assume your just an average fan of football that is my fault for thinking otherwise.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I dont have time for this back and forth shit mr teddy bear you just keep playing your games how you play em and good luck to ya, i was just stating a point. Maybe some day you'll have a actual reason you can come up with on a game. I have to assume your just an average fan of football that is my fault for thinking otherwise.

This "back and forth" shit was designed to figure out just what the point you're stating is, exactly. Are you saying that sports-bettors should be trying to beat Vegas by relying on how each team looked last time out? "OMG Did you see Wazzu last week? They're awful. NO WAY THE BOOKS HAVE ANY IDEA HOW BAD WASH ST. IS BUT I DO!!" I could offer my take on the on-field matchups, but that would undermine the point I'm trying to make, here. This is an exercize in humilty and restraint, not of braggadocio. This is econ. and psychology.

[Poppy_Hillis 11]

Look, Wang is saying it's useless to analyze a game, because any information you have is trumped by the Books and is already built into the line. Group A: These people make the lines, their full-time job is to make the lines. All week. They know all pertinent information involving every team.Group B: These people work full-time pushing papers behind a desk, or cleaning the neighborhood's pools all week. They watch a few games on Saturday.At this point can we can assume that any football knowledge anyone in Group B has is worthless? If you didn't say yes, then I don't know what to tell you. Moving on, now let's say there's a game that Group A says that Team X is 3-pt favorites over Team Y. Now, 70% of people in Group B (bettors) are taking Team X (-3) over Team Y. Why do you suppose that is? Is it because Group A decided to go over to the Palms and hang out with the Maloofs in the Real World Suite all week instead of doing their jobs?

[wsox8 10]

I would consider taking Cal maybe if they were at home. Cal is playing on the east coast in an early game and is coming off a blowout win. I'd pass.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Georgia (-7) @ South Carolina- Last week could have been a flat spot for Georgia playing against CMU at home with their conference opener and rival right around the corner on the road against the gamecocks. Like I said it could have been a flat spot but in no way was that the case. GA came out blazing on offense and defense jumping out to a 28-7 halftime lead and never looking back. S.C. on the other hand opened their conference play last week vs Vandy and just looked bad at the QB position. This week Spurrier stated that both Beecher and Smelley will get playing time which is great for playing against S.C. There should be a few turnovers by both QB's to set up short fields for GA to work with. S.C. defense is stout and GA might have trouble scoring on long drives but if the field is short for their offense it could lead to some easy pts. Simply put GA is loaded on both sides of the ball while SC only has a solid defense but will have trouble scoring. This is also a big revenge game for the bulldogs. I don't like laying a TD on the road in the SEC but I believe this matchup favors GA to much not to do it. GA -7 buy down to 6.5Penn State (-27.5) vs Syracuse- First off cuse is the worst and I repeat worst BCS conference team in the nation. This cant be a welcome sight to see big bad PSU come into town. Make no mistake this line is huge for a road favorite but as long as PSU doesn't take this game for granted there is no way they shouldn't score 50+ in this game. They obviously have the advantage at every single position on the field at all times and the coaching matchup is a joke. Greg Robinson will be fired at the end of the year make no mistake about that, how he survived this long I have no idea. Last week in their home opener they let a MAC team put up 478 yards of offense and 42 pts against them. PSU and Joe Pa have recently been known to run up the score on lesser opponents and I don't see any reason they shouldn't here. I thought this line was a little low when it first came out I was expecting to see a line of around 32-35 so I feel there is value laying almost 4 td's (crazy I know). So unless both the cuse have the game of their lives AND PSU doesn't show up I have a lot of confidence in this play. By the way there will be more PSU fans in the crowd than Syracuse fans so its almost a "home" game for PSU. PSU -27.5California (-15) @ Maryland- Lets start this out by stating the obvious…Maryland stinks. Last week MD went down south to play MTSU and put up a whoping 14 pts of offense while letting up 24 pts and 402 yds of offense from a bottom of the barrel Sun Belt squad. The week before they managed 14 pts against 1-AA Delaware. Lets face it this offense is anemic. I think this game sets up like the USC/VA game in week 1 where even though its rough for PAC-10 teams to come cross country to play an early game, the good teams rise to the occasion and Cal is a good team. MD has turned the ball over 5 times in two weeks vs. inferior opponents while Cal has managed to have 5 take-a-ways in two games vs. BCS conference opponents. They have been dominant running the ball in both games and should have an easy time against MD moving the ball at will. The main concern like I stated before was the fact of the early game on the east coast, but this week coach Tedford has put his players on east coast time with early wake up calls to prepare them for the time change. Again like I said last week when Cal played Wazzou, one team can score the other can't. Cal -15 Arizona (-10) vs. New Mexico- Here again we find a match up that features a team on the rise that can score at will and one team that is struggling on offense and had to manage two late TD's last week, against a prevent defense to lose again at home to a bad Texas A&M team. Until those two late TD's this team produced a grand total of 13 pts in the first 7 quarters of the season. That doesn't sound promising against a team that can put up 14 points in about 5 minutes, if they so choose. Arizona has surprised me on defense this year holding their opponents to less than 350 total yards combined in their first two games. New Mexico should again have trouble finding the endzone in this game facing their toughest team this year. Their QB's have combined for 4 INT's and 0 TD's this year, and that's not a team I would like to back only getting 10 points but I wouldn't mind betting against them. This game could turn into another blowout win for Zona as the marketplace has yet to catch up to this team. Arizona -10 buy down to -9.5

Some picks and analysis:South Carolina +7 +106 (4)I don't think there's any possible way SC keeps this game within 17. Maybe Spurrier will invent a new kind of offense? Maryland +14 -101 (4)My Cal fade worked out really well last week. Hopefully Maryland only loses by 55, so I fool myself into thinking that I'm making progress. Enjoy the postgame spread, Friedgen, you fat fuck.New Mexico +10.5 -104 (4)This game was total bullshit, so I'm going back to the well. Syracuse +27.5 -102 (4)Word on the street is, Joe Paterno wants to call plays this week. My insider sources say the head coach is actually taking an active role this week.

[Tactical Bear 3]

Congratulations to everybody who got on that Baylor -2 train. I think I saw that line move 4 points in a matter of 6 minutes. It's Baylor -6.5 now. I decided yesterday to pass this whole shitfest completely, and thank God for that. Yikes. This game is just complete and total nonsense at this point.

[powerpoker 0]

Congratulations to everybody who got on that Baylor -2 train. I think I saw that line move 4 points in a matter of 6 minutes. It's Baylor -6.5 now. I decided yesterday to pass this whole shitfest completely, and thank God for that. Yikes. This game is just complete and total nonsense at this point.

I agree all vaule is lost over -3.I also think there are some "soft" lines, out there every week espically in the beginning of week and that is when a lot of sharps will fire our some bets. By the time Friday night or Sat morning rolls around and these lines have moved all over the place and they finally have been pounded closer to where they should be. This is when the public jumps on them, usually saturday mornings, now they def get the worst of the line, yet they usually dont realize it. Ill look at the lines as soon as they open and see which way the early "sharps" are moving the games, if I agree with some of those moves ill try and get the game before the game crosses too many key numbers to make the play unbettable yet the public clearly will still bet on them. I dunno, we have two different ways of analyzing games and im not going to say that either way is the best or only way to cap games, the last thing i want is for me to win you to lose, cause im tryin to prove a point or something like that. I do want you to win, unless i got the other side of course. We are all in here to to try and make money, and give our opinons on games we like or dont like. Obviously we are going to disagree on a lot of games and thats fine, i enjoy the discussion. Good luck tonight and for the weekend, hopefully we are all cashing tickets come Saturday night.