I Finally Saw The Theoretical Folding Aces Pf Come Up.

[SavageHenry 0]

i was playing in an 8.80 tier 1 satellite on FT last night and FT pro chris klecz was on my left. she had a comfortable amount of chips to make top 5 for the token. she raised on the button and the SB moved in and he could cripple her. i'm not saying she was going to fold her aces but there was that little click hitch in her response before she made the call. i just thought it was interesting since i'd never seen it come up.

[Wingman008 0]

Yes.

[MovingIn 0]

How many players were left?

[Sheiky 0]

Why would you call with aces? You only have two outs if the re-raiser has a suited connector, which btw has 29 outs, not including implied bluff outs.

[Wingman008 0]

So really....he has 46 outs.

[SavageHenry 0]

i think there were 9 out of 18 players left. top 5 get tokens and 6th gets a 14 bucks. at the time really only 4 people had chips, her, me, the push monkey, and one other guy everyone else was either crippled or needed to move soon or get blinded off. funny thing was she made the call, the aces held up vs AQ sooted and i got sandwiched between two monster stacks and basically had to fold for the rest of the tournament. i think ive played 4 of these cheapy satellites on tilt and ive gotten a token each time. i play a little loose to start try to double up once then hunker down into ultra nit mode and its worked every time. the play is truly atrocious in these things...kinda reminds me a few years back playing SnGs when no one knew how to play...those were fun times.

[copernicus 0]

i think there were 9 out of 18 players left. top 5 get tokens and 6th gets a 14 bucks. at the time really only 4 people had chips, her, me, the push monkey, and one other guy everyone else was either crippled or needed to move soon or get blinded off. funny thing was she made the call, the aces held up vs AQ sooted and i got sandwiched between two monster stacks and basically had to fold for the rest of the tournament. i think ive played 4 of these cheapy satellites on tilt and ive gotten a token each time. i play a little loose to start try to double up once then hunker down into ultra nit mode and its worked every time. the play is truly atrocious in these things...kinda reminds me a few years back playing SnGs when no one knew how to play...those were fun times.

If her M was 8 or so (or higher) then she should have folded.

[bdc30 0]

To fold them with 9 left when 5 pay I think is nuts.

[copernicus 0]

To fold them with 9 left when 5 pay I think is nuts.

dont play many satellites, eh? With an 8 orbit stack (my idea of a comfortable stack) there is no reason to take even a 20% chance of getting crippled. If you fold youre well over an 80% favorite to cash when there are 5 short stacks out there already.

[Aces Rule 0]

dont play many satellites, eh? With an 8 orbit stack (my idea of a comfortable stack) there is no reason to take even a 20% chance of getting crippled. If you fold youre well over an 80% favorite to cash when there are 5 short stacks out there already.

Have you worked out a formula for folding into the money/tokens. That is for 3 pay, 4 pay , 5 pay etc? I've been using the average stack for the ITM as my 'comfort stack' but it's sometimes hard to calculate in live games. For example, if 5 pay and the averqage stack after the bubble breaks would 20000, then that's where I would place my comfort zone around - give or take 20% or so. You got something faster or simpler??

[copernicus 0]

Have you worked out a formula for folding into the money/tokens. That is for 3 pay, 4 pay , 5 pay etc? I've been using the average stack for the ITM as my 'comfort stack' but it's sometimes hard to calculate in live games. For example, if 5 pay and the averqage stack after the bubble breaks would 20000, then that's where I would place my comfort zone around - give or take 20% or so. You got something faster or simpler??

Not really, but I'll try to lay out one off the cuff (and im really just thinking this through now, so comments are needed!):Calculate the average stack when the bubble breaks.Divide by 4 (Swag) for the bottom stack when the bubble breaks.Calculate the number of future orbits to when the bubble breaks (this is the tough one, see below)You need total chips equal to "future orbits x the average cost per future orbit plus the bottom stack".Future orbits and their average cost per orbit really requires an educated guess. What I mean by it is total chips in that group that is below the cutoff divided by the average cost per round per player between now and the bubble breaking. So if the current CPR is 3000, the next level its 4500 and the next level its 7500, then the average future CPR is 5000 for 3 rounds. If there are 100000 chips spread among 10 players below the cutoff then the average future M/player is 2 = 100000/5000/10. So it would take about 2 orbits to eliminate those specific 10 players. However some of them are going to win hands and knock other players down and they then have to be eliminated, so gross up the future orbits to 2 x 1.5 = 3. This number has to be about the same as the number of orbits used in caculating the average CPR.So we estimate 3 full orbits of the table x an average cost per round of 5000, you need 15000 chips plus the estimated bottom stack to back into the prize. Since your tight play should let you win a pot now and then there hopefully is some cushion in the number.

[Aces Rule 0]

Not really, but I'll try to lay out one off the cuff (and im really just thinking this through now, so comments are needed!):Calculate the average stack when the bubble breaks.Divide by 4 (Swag) for the bottom stack when the bubble breaks.Calculate the number of future orbits to when the bubble breaks (this is the tough one, see below)You need total chips equal to "future orbits x the average cost per future orbit plus the bottom stack".Future orbits and their average cost per orbit really requires an educated guess. What I mean by it is total chips in that group that is below the cutoff divided by the average cost per round per player between now and the bubble breaking. So if the current CPR is 3000, the next level its 4500 and the next level its 7500, then the average future CPR is 5000 for 3 rounds. If there are 100000 chips spread among 10 players below the cutoff then the average future M/player is 2 = 100000/5000/10. So it would take about 2 orbits to eliminate those specific 10 players. However some of them are going to win hands and knock other players down and they then have to be eliminated, so gross up the future orbits to 2 x 1.5 = 3. This number has to be about the same as the number of orbits used in caculating the average CPR.So we estimate 3 full orbits of the table x an average cost per round of 5000, you need 15000 chips plus the estimated bottom stack to back into the prize. Since your tight play should let you win a pot now and then there hopefully is some cushion in the number.

Ouch - that's way more comlicated than the method I'm using now and is the 1st step in your 4 pt approch. I have found that placing my stack at or above the average when the bubble breaks is pretty solid but the fewer places that pay the tuffer it is and also less reliable such as for 3 or 4 places vs 10, 20 or even 100 places. As long as I'm below this average, I continue to play poker although tighter than normal in a freeze-out but once I'm at or above this average I coast a lot more just letting the shorties kill each other off until I make the payout.

[copernicus 0]

Ouch - that's way more comlicated than the method I'm using now and is the 1st step in your 4 pt approch. I have found that placing my stack at or above the average when the bubble breaks is pretty solid but the fewer places that pay the tuffer it is and also less reliable such as for 3 or 4 places vs 10, 20 or even 100 places. As long as I'm below this average, I continue to play poker although tighter than normal in a freeze-out but once I'm at or above this average I coast a lot more just letting the shorties kill each other off until I make the payout.

Its unreliable because its too simple. Note that most of my method (if its even any good) can be calculated well before the bubble...as soon as the total number of chips and number of places to be paid is finalized.

[Mr. Sparco 2]

When the bubble is not too near (that is, about half the field or more still needs to be eliminated), I use a variation of Copernicus' method which usually works pretty well. It differs slightly in the way in which you estimate the number of rounds to be played. (It would be nice to check in some concrete examples how different the results are, actually.)First, check what part of the current field will cash. Say this is 1/3, for example.A good rule of thumb is that this will happen approximately when the blinds increase by the inverse factor. That is, in this example, when the bubble bursts the blinds will be about three times as high as they are now. (The reason for this is that the average stack when expressed in blinds stays more or less constant throughout the middle/late stages of the tourney. If you're still in the early stages, you might want to correct this factor a bit upwards.)Check when the blinds are going to be this high; say in this example it means we play five more levels.Calculate how much these levels are going to cost you in the way Copernicus explained: number of rounds per level times cost per round, added for each of the five levels still to be played.Add this to the safe stack you want to have when the bubble bursts (I usually use half of the average stack at that point, though perhaps the 1/4 that Copernicus uses is enough) and you arrive at an estimate of your "comfort stack".Note: I apply this method for sattellites where the number of seats is several dozen. I can imagine that when there are only a few seats (so that in the end people will play shorthanded), the assumption that the average stack expressed in blinds is roughly constant goes wrong.Comments?

[Aces Rule 0]

Its unreliable because its too simple. Note that most of my method (if its even any good) can be calculated well before the bubble...as soon as the total number of chips and number of places to be paid is finalized.

I don't agree it's unreliable b/c it's too simple but rather b/c the smaller the number of payouts the higher on the leader board you have to be - for example payout for 3 places you're stack average would be about 2nd place while for a payout for 10 places your avarage would be around 5th place and for 100 your average would hover around 50th or better. The smaller the number of payouts the less room you have to coast and the more you have to play poker to keep from slipping into shorty territory. In essence the smaller the number of payouts, the more you have to play like a freeze-out but the larger the payout pool the more you can strategize folding into it.One advantage my approch has is that it doesn't require projections/guessing of future orbits or blind sizes. Once you've determined the average stack size for when the bubble breaks that becomes your target or better b4 you begin coasting. The further away from the bubble you are the less you can coast but once the bubble is within easy sight the more you allow the others to make your place for you so that even if significantly below your target of average stack at bubble you can still fold into the prize pool. For example you may be in 85th place with with 101 players with 100 getting ITM/prize pool which is well below average but still comfortable b/c there is only 1 player left to be eliminated. However being 85th out of 200 with 100 ITM you still have to play poker and target that average stack at the bubble as your goal. The flip side with a small payout is that you might never get a chance to coast such as being in 2nd place with 5 players but only 3 get ITM - unless that 2nd place is significantly larger than 3rd or 4th you may find you still have to play to get ITM and also risk getting knocked down and out on the bubble if the sacks are close in size.Comments?