Adjusting To Better Sng Players

[potatoman 0]

Hey all,So I'm about to record my first net loss over 100 sngs since I starting playing poker more than 2 years ago - I can hear the swell of sympathy out there:)Seriously though, I just moved up to the $22 level. While I'd like to think this is just variance (I have 22 fourths out of 95 games for example) I'd like to make sure I'm doing everything I can to maximize my chances of making money.Moving from $11 to $22 was the first time I noticed a significant change in the skill level of my opponents. They're not all great players, but usually it's six solid/average players and three bad players, where before it was 3-4 solid/average players and 5-6 weak ones. Basically, as you moved up and eventually hit a level where people had a clue, did you make any adjustments to your game, or did you just accept the fact that your ROI was going to drop and deal with it.My ROI, on average, up to this point has been around 20-22. Oh, and I know 100 isn't a significant sample. Thanks.

[jmbreslin 0]

What's your overall ROI now?An ROI of 20-22 is very, very solid.

[Poker Addict 0]

(I have 22 fourths out of 95 games for example)

This is everything right here imo. The bubble play is where the competition get's incredibly better as you move up. These players have read SNG Strategy, they have used SNG Tools and Poker Stove. But not all of them. And not all of them play correct obviously. That is where you will have to get your edge.I am going through this exact thing myself right now! It's causing a downswing but I have located the area that has gotten more difficult. And it takes work. You are not going to maintain the ROI that you worked your way up to at the lower level. But the higher payout can more then make up for that.Anyway, I think it is ALL about the bubble and maximizing your edge here will get you the best results.

[HighwayStar 8]

Get PXF and watch sheets/beanmo/inissints hundreds of videos on them. The stuff about ICM is vital to beat SnGs at a decent rate at higher levels.

[potatoman 0]

Thank god I'm getting some breaks in tournaments...ROI - Well like i said, very small sample at $22, but right now it's around (-13) percent.I think you're right about the bubble play. I'm not making huge errors but I obviously need to make some adjustments. At the lower levels I can either get tight players to fold when they should call, and loose players to call when they should fold. For the most part, these players aren't going to make huge mistakes in either direction. I may post some bubble line checks next week to see if I'm doing anything wrong. I have the sng tools like everyone else, so I'll try not to post anything too standard.Thanks for the input.I'd like to, eventually, have an ROI at $22 of 20 per cent. Just playing standard format, 4 tabling. Is this too high?

[HighwayStar 8]

I doubt that ROI is achievable over a large sample. 10% is ppretty good for that level I'd think

[MovingIn 0]

FWIW, standard deviation here would be about +/- $220 from an expected ROI. Even if your current balance was the product of negative variance, that'd still have you around a negative return. As played, your game during this stretch warrants a good, long look for leaks... especially, given your 22 bubble finishes, when you get down to 4 handed play. How loose/tight are you playing once you get to the bubble? How loose/tight are you playing these SNGs in general? Are you routinely short stacked when it gets down to 4 handed or is your stack relatively competitive?

[jmbreslin 0]

I can't help but wonder whether higher buy-in SnGs are profitable over the long run or if they're more of a zero-sum game. Once you move up to a level where everyone has a good grasp of SnG strategy, how do you develop an edge over the competition?

[copernicus 0]

I can't help but wonder whether higher buy-in SnGs are profitable over the long run or if they're more of a zero-sum game. Once you move up to a level where everyone has a good grasp of SnG strategy, how do you develop an edge over the competition?

You cant, it is a negative game after rake. The only way to profit is thru rakeback/supernova. RainKhan is a negative SnG player after 20,000 SnGs at 100+ buyin.

[SavageHenry 0]

from what ive seen of the 20 dollar 45 mans on full tilt i thikn those are the way to go. maybe i've been lucky but cashing in a 45 man seems only a little more difficult than cashing in a 9 man. the crazies still will double you up and suicide themselves. With one double up or just some solid play i find myself near the final table almost every time. also if you can play in the evenings especially late. the nitty SnG grinders play a lot during the day.take some notes too. i recognize a lot of the SnG players in the 20 dollar games. if you see a few of the more solid players in the game maybe pass on that one and wait for another.

[copernicus 0]

from what ive seen of the 20 dollar 45 mans on full tilt i thikn those are the way to go. maybe i've been lucky but cashing in a 45 man seems only a little more difficult than cashing in a 9 man. the crazies still will double you up and suicide themselves. With one double up or just some solid play i find myself near the final table almost every time. also if you can play in the evenings especially late. the nitty SnG grinders play a lot during the day.take some notes too. i recognize a lot of the SnG players in the 20 dollar games. if you see a few of the more solid players in the game maybe pass on that one and wait for another.

Henry's back!!!!!!

[SavageHenry 0]

yes i am back ...now whether that is a good thing or not remains to be seen.everyone is all baller now. Troyomac and fluffdog are playing in world series events...jeez that'll teach me to cash out and get a real job . im playing at full tilt now. i hate it. i miss the ultra fishy tournaments at full contact/poker room. i assume most people followed daniel to stars yes ?

[Sheiky 0]

I can't help but wonder whether higher buy-in SnGs are profitable over the long run or if they're more of a zero-sum game. Once you move up to a level where everyone has a good grasp of SnG strategy, how do you develop an edge over the competition?

You cant, it is a negative game after rake. The only way to profit is thru rakeback/supernova. RainKhan is a negative SnG player after 20,000 SnGs at 100+ buyin.

There are definitely players that are winning without rakeback/bonuses...

[copernicus 0]

There are definitely players that are winning without rakeback/bonuses...

Im sure there are, the question is will they still be in a year. At the high stakes levels the edge is so small variance will move people on and off the leaderboards. There are always going to be people moving up beyond their skill level that feed the top players, but to stay a top player they have got to be extremely well bankrolled and put in mind numbing hours to make a living at it. A lot of them will switch to cash games, where its far easier to find fishy games.You can find evidence of that in the sharkscope leaderboards. In the 301-1k buy in level I think there is only one player who is both a total profit 2008 leader and an average profit in the last 500 games leader. Also look at the lifetime profits of the current leaderboard...ive just sampled a few, but they run between -2% and +2%. With ROI that low and the variance inherent in the game, it will take a statistical outlyer to be profitable for an exended period.

[potatoman 0]

FWIW, standard deviation here would be about +/- $220 from an expected ROI. Even if your current balance was the product of negative variance, that'd still have you around a negative return. As played, your game during this stretch warrants a good, long look for leaks... especially, given your 22 bubble finishes, when you get down to 4 handed play. How loose/tight are you playing once you get to the bubble? How loose/tight are you playing these SNGs in general? Are you routinely short stacked when it gets down to 4 handed or is your stack relatively competitive?

EEP! Math!I finished the set of 100 (I don't think this is a significant sample by any stretch) with an ITM of 33 and a ROI of -14 or so, down about 14.5 buyins. Thanks to some tournament cashes, I'm extremely well rolled for $22, so the loss doesn't affect my bankroll negatively. But I'm not going to be too happy dumping off another $300.This is after playing about 2,000-3,000 or so sngs with nothing less than a ROI of 9, usually around 18-22 over two years. But these were all below $22.I have made changes to my game, but largely to its improvement I believe. I'm much tighter 9-6 handed than I have been in the past and much more aggressive during bubble play which usually equals more firsts - higher ROI.I bubbled 25 times. So on one hand, we have variance/ bad luck.I lost with the better hand preflop 12 of those, usually as at least a 75 per cent favourite. The other 13 would be coin flips and running TT into JJ and whatnot. On four other occasions I ran into AA or KK. Very few, if any, of these are acts of desperation. Just typical push/fold stuff.This is just on the bubble. I'm not entering in the times I busted early by running AA into 44s and losing (three times) or running KK into AA (four times). Now, I want to be clear. Bad luck is no excuse and there's no way I played my best/ didn't make errors during the bubble. I think one mistake I make during the bubble it's not aggressive enough in the sb and being too aggressive post flop in marginal situations. But mostly, I think I'm playing better than my opponents, and with some breaks, I think I would have been profitable, on average.Normally, I would drop down to $11 at this point and build my confidence up. But, instead I'm going to one-table the next 10-20 sngs I play and put them through the replayer to see what leaks I find.If I'm a net loser over the next 100, I'm going to take a loooong break from sngs and concentrate on my rebuys and cash game.Thx again for the input.

[Poker Addict 0]

Im sure there are, the question is will they still be in a year. At the high stakes levels the edge is so small variance will move people on and off the leaderboards. There are always going to be people moving up beyond their skill level that feed the top players, but to stay a top player they have got to be extremely well bankrolled and put in mind numbing hours to make a living at it. A lot of them will switch to cash games, where its far easier to find fishy games.You can find evidence of that in the sharkscope leaderboards. In the 301-1k buy in level I think there is only one player who is both a total profit 2008 leader and an average profit in the last 500 games leader. Also look at the lifetime profits of the current leaderboard...ive just sampled a few, but they run between -2% and +2%. With ROI that low and the variance inherent in the game, it will take a statistical outlyer to be profitable for an exended period.

I agree with this at that level. Even if you look at George Lind, he only has a 1% ROI over 21,000 games. That is why the other sicko SNG players didn't sleep for the few months leading up to the World Series so they could play every Step 6 possible where they had a clear advantage over the inexperienced players working their way up.That's why I suggested to Stars that they get cash Steps like Party Poker does.

[copernicus 0]

I agree with this at that level. Even if you look at George Lind, he only has a 1% ROI over 21,000 games. That is why the other sicko SNG players didn't sleep for the few months leading up to the World Series so they could play every Step 6 possible where they had a clear advantage over the inexperienced players working their way up.That's why I suggested to Stars that they get cash Steps like Party Poker does.

If I understand what you mean by "cash steps", I dont think you'll get the same profile of players that you do for WSOP and WCOOP steps. Those attract the less experienced players because the potential payoff isnt just the 10k or whatever entry fee (or 2d/3d place etc cash), its the life changing WSOP or WCOOP win. Cash steps will very quickly deteriorate into just about the same profile as current high buyin sngs.

[Poker Addict 0]

If I understand what you mean by "cash steps", I dont think you'll get the same profile of players that you do for WSOP and WCOOP steps. Those attract the less experienced players because the potential payoff isnt just the 10k or whatever entry fee (or 2d/3d place etc cash), its the life changing WSOP or WCOOP win. Cash steps will very quickly deteriorate into just about the same profile as current high buyin sngs.

Yeah, I guess you are probably right. But even if a few take a shot, it might for at least a little softer field. I don't know, just a thought.

[potatoman 0]

Quick update. Played another 100 $22 sngs, and came out with an ROI of 10 per cent.Not bad. I went 2/10 for the last 10, busting out 6 times with dominating hands preflop.I think I overestimated the skill level of my opponents, although, there are 1-2 per table that make few, if any mistakes. But there's still plenty of average-horrible players.I think I should be profitable over the long run. I just can't judge yet what ROI I can expect. Maybe 15. I'm going to try to crank out another 800 before I figure out whether I want to move up to the $33 level or move to cash...Pokertracker = big help.Again, thanks for the imput.

[jmbreslin 0]

An ROI of 10% at that level is still pretty solid. Perhaps your expectations are a bit too high? I doubt there are many players that can maintain a 15% ROI at the mid-high levels.

[Jariso13 1]

Quick update. Played another 100 $22 sngs, and came out with an ROI of 10 per cent.Not bad. I went 2/10 for the last 10, busting out 6 times with dominating hands preflop.I think I overestimated the skill level of my opponents, although, there are 1-2 per table that make few, if any mistakes. But there's still plenty of average-horrible players.I think I should be profitable over the long run. I just can't judge yet what ROI I can expect. Maybe 15. I'm going to try to crank out another 800 before I figure out whether I want to move up to the $33 level or move to cash...Pokertracker = big help.Again, thanks for the imput.

What are the biggest adjustments that you feel that you have made to become successful while moving up?

[copernicus 0]

If pros are looking at 100% ROI in high buy in, large tournaments, I would think 10-15% is conservative. You face the same variance as pros, but arguably have a bigger edge over the typical $22 or $33 player than pros do over other pros and others who would risk a large buyin.