Nimue1995 1 Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 Okay all you smart people, I have a practical question for you. What would you choose in this situation?We have a 500 gallon propane tank we need to fill for winter use. Usually it doesn't last the entire winter unless we're really really careful with heating, we have a relatively mild winter in Montana or we use the wood stove A LOT. When we have had propane delivered mid-winter we've usually paid at least $1.00 per gallon more than the summer price. The propane company has given us the following options:Option 1 - Contract Gas Plan: They will guarantee a maximum price of $2.42 gallon until April 30th if we prepay for the same amount of gallons we used last year. Since we used 800 gallons last year this would cost us $1936.00 to do this which is a BIG chunk of change for us (basically we'd have to put it on our credit card and pay it over the course of about 2 months). Option 2 - Propane Price Protection Plan: Gives us an assurance of a MAXIMUM price of 2.59 per gallon through April 30th with a $75.00 deposit. Then we can have it filled as we need it so it wouldn't be as much all at once and we probably wouldn't have to use the credit card to pay it. Option 3 - Pay to have it filled this summer at the $2.42 gal price and take our chances at mid-winter believing that the price will stabilize with the price of oil presently dropping. What option would you all choose and why? Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 Me.You have a funny way of agreeing! Note: Im a nit for facts, especially in areas that I have a solid backgroung in...like pensions and pension investments. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 Okay all you smart people, I have a practical question for you. What would you choose in this situation?We have a 500 gallon propane tank we need to fill for winter use. Usually it doesn't last the entire winter unless we're really really careful with heating, we have a relatively mild winter in Montana or we use the wood stove A LOT. When we have had propane delivered mid-winter we've usually paid at least $1.00 per gallon more than the summer price. The propane company has given us the following options:Option 1 - Contract Gas Plan: They will guarantee a maximum price of $2.42 gallon until April 30th if we prepay for the same amount of gallons we used last year. Since we used 800 gallons last year this would cost us $1936.00 to do this which is a BIG chunk of change for us (basically we'd have to put it on our credit card and pay it over the course of about 2 months). Option 2 - Propane Price Protection Plan: Gives us an assurance of a MAXIMUM price of 2.59 per gallon through April 30th with a $75.00 deposit. Then we can have it filled as we need it so it wouldn't be as much all at once and we probably wouldn't have to use the credit card to pay it. Option 3 - Pay to have it filled this summer at the $2.42 gal price and take our chances at mid-winter believing that the price will stabilize with the price of oil presently dropping. What option would you all choose and why?Whats your credit card interest rate? Hows your wood supply? Im mostly picking Option 3 anyway. My internal Farmers Almanac is expecting a mild winter, so pick up an extra cord of wood and you'll make it through the winter! Are you near Bozeman? Link to post Share on other sites
Nimue1995 1 Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 Whats your credit card interest rate? Hows your wood supply? Im mostly picking Option 3 anyway. My internal Farmers Almanac is expecting a mild winter, so pick up an extra cord of wood and you'll make it through the winter! Are you near Bozeman?Interest rate- not great since we pick for no annual fee over interest rate. We pay it off almost every month so up to now haven't really worried about the interest rate. Back when we were in debt then we went the other way but now we're close to being debt free. That's the reason I hesitate going with the 1st option. We have 2 cords of wood right now. However we'd have to get it cut and delivered since my husband has a lung condition that doesn't allow him to do that kind of work anymore (He thinks he still can but I strongly object since it puts him down for a day or 2 afterward). We're near Missoula. Thanks for the input. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted August 2, 2008 Share Posted August 2, 2008 We're near Missoula.200 miles...guess my son isnt billeting with you! Link to post Share on other sites
Nimue1995 1 Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 200 miles...guess my son isnt billeting with you!But if he wants a home-cooked meal..... Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 You have a funny way of agreeing! Note: Im a nit for facts, especially in areas that I have a solid backgroung in...like pensions and pension investments.OK fair enough, I was spouting numbers with out doing 100% the research myself, but I was taking that info from other credible resources (but by word of mouth of fund managers). So what is your bg w/ pensions? Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted August 3, 2008 Share Posted August 3, 2008 OK fair enough, I was spouting numbers with out doing 100% the research myself, but I was taking that info from other credible resources (but by word of mouth of fund managers). So what is your bg w/ pensions?Im a consulting actuary dealing primarily with pension fund asset allocation and forecasting. Calpers was a client in a prior job, but I was focused primarily on the Defense industry there. My clients now are 2 $4 billion funds and a few $500 million or so funds. Link to post Share on other sites
loogie 115 Posted August 4, 2008 Author Share Posted August 4, 2008 Wow, I'm extremely impressed with the intelligence of the people who have posted in this thread. Gives me some hope. Except the OP. Bad poll. Sorry OP guy. How dareth thou questionith my intelligencith???Some of us are just more informed in other areas of interest. That's why I created the thread. To learn. Mission accomplished. Thanks to El Guapo. Oh, and Guapo, how does one not listen to media? Isn't all information media-based on some level? Am I supposed to just manifest the correct information? If you get your information from another person, didn't that info originate from some type of media? Regardless, I will try. I now watch CNN on mute and keep Fox News on picture-in-picture also on mute, and then I switch between them repeatedly. This way, I cannot listen to both sides at the same time. Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 How dareth thou questionith my intelligencith???Some of us are just more informed in other areas of interest. That's why I created the thread. To learn. Mission accomplished. Thanks to El Guapo. Oh, and Guapo, how does one not listen to media? Isn't all information media-based on some level? Am I supposed to just manifest the correct information? If you get your information from another person, didn't that info originate from some type of media? Regardless, I will try. I now watch CNN on mute and keep Fox News on picture-in-picture also on mute, and then I switch between them repeatedly. This way, I cannot listen to both sides at the same time.I do need to retract part of what I said, Copernicus pointed out that the law has not passed congress to repeal the commodities trading in pensions, it is still just proposed.That being said, I think all you can do is process the information fed to you the best way for yourself. You brought it to this forum, where as it has been pointed out many times, there are numerous intelligent people in different profession that can help answer questions.If I were to give a suggestion, if you have a specific topic I would look at Reuters and AP, for the most part they report news with facts, and are not editorial in how they translate it.E.G. Oil went down today as economic news lagged and a storm warning was adverted. Pretty straight forward, I believe I read that on an AP feed. The problem is when you see someone on TV, they almost always put there spin on it and try to analyze it, and not just repeat the facts and move on. Also T.V. media has a tendency to only focus on the negative. If Oil goes up 5 dollars a barrel that will be larger news, than if it goes down $5 a barrel.Other than that talk to people you trust who are informed on the topics, then do your best to make a solid judgment from there. Link to post Share on other sites
akoff 0 Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 Other than that talk to people you trust who are informed on the topics, then do your best to make a solid judgment from there.I think most folks prefer to listen to whomever makes them feel good and tells hem what they want to hear...or gives them a scapegoat on why it isn't their fault. Hmmm and why is Mr. Obama leading in the polls again? Link to post Share on other sites
loogie 115 Posted August 4, 2008 Author Share Posted August 4, 2008 Hmmm and why is Mr. Obama leading in the polls again?Because John McCain is so old......that every time he makes a phone call, he instinctively reaches for the crank. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 I think most folks prefer to listen to whomever makes them feel good and tells hem what they want to hear...or gives them a scapegoat on why it isn't their fault. Hmmm and why is Mr. Obama leading in the polls again?And how did Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter ever make a best seller list? oh right, the bolded thing. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 I think most folks prefer to listen to whomever makes them feel good and tells hem what they want to hear...or gives them a scapegoat on why it isn't their fault. Hmmm and why is Mr. Obama leading in the polls again?Actually he isnt in the latest Gallup poll. Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 And how did Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter ever make a best seller list? oh right, the bolded thing.I don't think anyone is arguing that there are not protagonists/antagonists on both sides who have a skewed or one sided vision.Honestly I applaud Loogie for doing this, inbetween Jokes, Songs and Boob Larva he is taking the time to learn more about something that he is not as familiar on as he would like to be. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted August 4, 2008 Share Posted August 4, 2008 I don't think anyone is arguing that there are not protagonists/antagonists on both sides who have a skewed or one sided vision.Honestly I applaud Loogie for doing this, inbetween Jokes, Songs and Boob Larva he is taking the time to learn more about something that he is not as familiar on as he would like to be.I agree 100% with your second sentence. I am not so sure about the first one. I think people KNOW that both sides have their issues but they ARGUE by pointing out the mistake of one side while conveniently ignoring when the other side does the same exact thing. And I am going to sporadically call people on it until the level of discourse moves up a notch or two. In that vein, I will admit that I have made several posts accusing McCain of resorting to negative politics. At the time, he was running many more negative ads and taking many more shots at Obama in his speeches. However, it appears Obama has decided to fight back and it is clear now that both campaigns are going to be pretty negative. It seems to be what the people want. (side note: I cant believe how well McCain's ads are working. Britney Spears? This is the election to be the most important man in the world. And the one accusing Obama of not supporting/visiting the troops has a long shot of him playing basketball with a gym full of troops. And yet the polling gap has disappeared. I am convinced that just getting any negative message out is the key.....the general populace barely registers the actual substance of the attack ad.) Link to post Share on other sites
Nimue1995 1 Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 You can also delve into history as well which can give you some perspective on the present. Take a look at the last energy crisis, who did what and why and what the end result was. It really does help us recognize why we are where we are today. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 The real problem is increased overall demand due to the rapid industrialization of China and India.Blaming the Democrats is lunacy.....the GOP just started this drill offshore kick a few months ago. Blaming Bush just because he used to be a Texas oilman may feel good but it has little credibility either.You could say Bush and his administration are indirectly responsible because their "lets have two wars AND cut taxes party AND spend foolishly" plan has saddled us with a record deficit and consequently this deficit has dragged down the value of the dollar. Oil is traded in dollars so what hurts the dollar hurts us at the gas pump. However, that only accounts for some of the gas price increase, not all of it by a long shot.Everyone here knows that the Kyoto treaty is the worst thing ever for the US... right? Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 That made me laugh. You also forget to blame russians. It's all because of russians! ))right. you explain to me how two of the largest nations on the planet having a hugely increased demand for oil would not make oil prices go up. It certainly isnt the only reason but it is obviously a huge factor. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 That made me laugh.Why did it make you laugh? It is the primary reason. Eco 101. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 Actually he isnt in the latest Gallup poll.new AP poll has Obama ahead by a decent margin again.....but I dont trust these stupid polls at all.fwiw, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080805/ap_on_...al_race_ap_poll Link to post Share on other sites
NickZepp 0 Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 new AP poll has Obama ahead by a decent margin again.....but I dont trust these stupid polls at all.fwiw, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080805/ap_on_...al_race_ap_poll All the polls said Kerry was going to win easily, but he lost pretty easily. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 95 Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 All the polls said Kerry was going to win easily, but he lost pretty easily.thats one of many reason I dont trust em. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted August 5, 2008 Share Posted August 5, 2008 All the polls said Kerry was going to win easily, but he lost pretty easily.National polls dont mean much because they dont accurately reflect the electoral vote. They are somewhat useful for detecting trends though, and a few of them now have McCain ahead.And of course you have the race factor that will most likely result in an overstatement of Obama's chances vs when they get inside the booth. Link to post Share on other sites
NickZepp 0 Posted August 6, 2008 Share Posted August 6, 2008 A big problem for Obama will be getting the older vote. I don't see anyone talking about this because younger people like me don't see race as an issue and I don't. But older people are probably the majority of voters. They vote more than anyone. And a lot of those older people I know especially in the south grew up as basically racist. They won't vote for a black man no matter what. My grandfather is in his 80s and he's voted democrat every since he could vote in the late 30s for FDR. That is till this year. He won't vote for a black man as president, and there will be a lot of older voters doing the same. I think it'll be tough for Obama to win any of the southern states. Link to post Share on other sites
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