Tactical Bear 3 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 This news doesn't bolster my faith in contrainism muchHey, every dime I make today will be 15ish cents at the end of the year... All the revenue I earn making book goes right onto MB.Also, one of the reason I wanted to make book was to try to understand the psychology of bookmakers/linesetters a little better. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 I am a total degenerate, so I've started making a little book on the side (honestly, to support my actual sports-betting habit), and I took very, very heavy Dallas and San Antonio Spurs action tonight.When I saw the Dallas/Sacto line at DAL-3, I immediately decided to send my clients DAL-3, wait about an hour, then send DAL-2.5. It worked like a charm, and I ended up with a really large Position on Sacramento.It's weird that you got heavy action on the Spurs. VI had more than 60% going to the Magic on that game.As for the Kings game, you definitely got it right that contrarianism is just sickening. I made the bet but it looked like the dumbest thing ever, and was also the first time I've tried betting 2 units on a game (normally always stick with one) because it just looked so contrarian that I had to do it. Then the 2nd half rolls around, Dallas is up by 13, and I fume and give up. I check back a couple hours later to see just how badly I lost, and see a beautiful sight.I've started to look at contrarianism as like a form of fortune telling of seemingly unlikely events. It's really funny. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Hey, every dime I make today will be 15ish cents at the end of the year... All the revenue I earn making book goes right onto MB.Also, one of the reason I wanted to make book was to try to understand the psychology of bookmakers/linesetters a little better.i'm curious.. how big of roll do you need to make book, in terms of max bet units ( like, lets say the most you let people bet is 200, how big does your roll need to be?). Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 i'm curious.. how big of roll do you need to make book, in terms of max bet units ( like, lets say the most you let people bet is 200, how big does your roll need to be?).I dunno, really. I've never paid out a nickel, though. I set a few grand aside just in case, but I've been in the black from the word "go." Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 but I've been in the black from the word "go."I was going to try and execute some sort of Maggie joke and how she isn't black, but it's probably too soon and would have been mean spirited. Link to post Share on other sites
DinkDonk 1 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 I was going to try and execute some sort of Maggie joke and how she isn't black, but it's probably too soon and would have been mean spirited.I commend your restraint sir. Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 I was going to try and execute some sort of Maggie joke and how she isn't black, but it's probably too soon and would have been mean spirited.I ran into her on campus yesterday, and we had a pretty awesome conversation. I'll post it in the sick thread when I'm back at full strength. I take notes, you know. Stuff like this. Stuff that I know is funny, but I also know I don't think I can find funny enough just yet. So I write little notes to myself -- sometimes on scratch paper, sometimes emails to myself -- because I know damned well there's nothing more important than the joke.Anyway, that's my way of saying "let it rip, faggot." Unless you just couldn't think of a good enough joke, and this was your way of making the joke without making the joke, in which case just: "faggot." Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 I have a question about record keeping, on your bets. Right now, I'm just writing down all my bets on a text document in Open office writer.. Each day, I start off with the date. Then I write down each game, recording the spread and which side I have on the game, the amount of the bet in units, the result in units. Then, I talley the result of the day in total units +/-, then I have my total result +/-. And this is working fine, so far.. but I get the feeling once I have a ton of bets in, I'll want some other way to keep track of all of this, and have a handy way of dealing with all the data, so I guess I'm asking for what program you guys use, and how you edit that program ( as I assume it's some sort of spread sheet of some kind) Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 I have a question about record keeping, on your bets. Right now, I'm just writing down all my bets on a text document in Open office writer.. Each day, I start off with the date. Then I write down each game, recording the spread and which side I have on the game, the amount of the bet in units, the result in units. Then, I talley the result of the day in total units +/-, then I have my total result +/-. And this is working fine, so far.. but I get the feeling once I have a ton of bets in, I'll want some other way to keep track of all of this, and have a handy way of dealing with all the data, so I guess I'm asking for what program you guys use, and how you edit that program ( as I assume it's some sort of spread sheet of some kind)Excel spreadsheetYou can formulate (?) columns to handle the juice and odds if you do teasers or parlays. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 I have a question about record keeping, on your bets. Right now, I'm just writing down all my bets on a text document in Open office writer.. Each day, I start off with the date. Then I write down each game, recording the spread and which side I have on the game, the amount of the bet in units, the result in units. Then, I talley the result of the day in total units +/-, then I have my total result +/-. And this is working fine, so far.. but I get the feeling once I have a ton of bets in, I'll want some other way to keep track of all of this, and have a handy way of dealing with all the data, so I guess I'm asking for what program you guys use, and how you edit that program ( as I assume it's some sort of spread sheet of some kind)I use an Excel spreadsheet, and have columns for date, side, opponent, line, units wagered, juice, grade, the shop at which the bet was placed (important for MB commissions, etc.), and a running tally of my total results, daily results, monthly results, etc. I have different sheets for every sport, and a general "Balance Sheet" and "Income Statement" sheet to combine them in one place.I also keep track of how my various-sized plays are doing, and try to keep track of my plays based on wagerline (and other consensus) splits, to see if I'm missing something. I can quickly tally results for things like: "How am I doing fading the Lakers?" or "How am I doing on anti-public favorites?" Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 I use an Excel spreadsheet, and have columns for date, side, opponent, line, units wagered, juice, grade, the shop at which the bet was placed (important for MB commissions, etc.), and a running tally of my total results, daily results, monthly results, etc. I have different sheets for every sport, and a general "Balance Sheet" and "Income Statement" sheet to combine them in one place.I also keep track of how my various-sized plays are doing, and try to keep track of my plays based on wagerline (and other consensus) splits, to see if I'm missing something. I can quickly tally results for things like: "How am I doing fading the Lakers?" or "How am I doing on anti-public favorites?"I wish I was better at spread sheets, I haven't used a spread sheet since my "intro to computers" class in college. Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 I wish I was better at spread sheets, I haven't used a spread sheet since my "intro to computers" class in college.You can google and find tons of help with formulas. It's pretty easy... I never had a class on it and I figured out how to do it and we all know how stupid I am.Wang could just send you his and you could alter some of it to fit what you want. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 You can google and find tons of help with formulas. It's pretty easy... I never had a class on it and I figured out how to do it and we all know how stupid I am.hey now, don't sell yourself short.. it's not like you're an A&M alumni or something. Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 hey now, don't sell yourself short.. it's not like you're an A&M alumni or something.Hey...I said I was stupid...not retarded. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted January 15, 2009 Author Share Posted January 15, 2009 Mac:I don't want to give you my buggy, newer version, but if you want a copy of my old excel spreadsheet, PM me your email address and I'll send it to you. Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Hey so Pittsburgh opened at -5 and Baltimore as a road dog is getting 63% of the action, and they moved the line to -6. This is the ideal situation to pound the Steelers right? Link to post Share on other sites
DinkDonk 1 Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Hey so Pittsburgh opened at -5 and Baltimore as a road dog is getting 63% of the action, and they moved the line to -6. This is the ideal situation to pound the Steelers right?I know. It feels dirty though right? Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 15, 2009 Share Posted January 15, 2009 Mac:I don't want to give you my buggy, newer version, but if you want a copy of my old excel spreadsheet, PM me your email address and I'll send it to you.Yeah, I don't think that works with open office. I tried to open it and it didn't work. Thanks anyway, I'll just have to figure it out the old fashioned way. Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted January 16, 2009 Share Posted January 16, 2009 I know. It feels dirty though right?Oh yeah, still going to bet about half of what I won in soccer earlier this year though. I need at least one big sweat this year, might as well do it now. Link to post Share on other sites
Tactical Bear 3 Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 So this is probably the biggest weekend of my sports-gambling life*. I have had a pretty big hard-on for Baltimore all year long -- I believe I mentioned that I was playing them to win the division here (a bet that did not cash) and over 6 wins (a bet that did) -- and it probably was throbbing hardest on the morning of September 19th, when the Ravens were 1-0, coming off their bye week, and getting ready to gear up for the overhyped Cleveland Browns. The bookmakers installed them as 1pt home favorites in that game, which convinced me the books might have been overreacting to Baltimore's weird 2007 season. I decided to bang them pretty hard to win the Superbowl and the AFC. The beat Cleveland, then went on to lose 3 straight. I almost totally gave up on these tickets. Now the question is: do I hedge them out? Or let them ride?Notice that I liked my position so much that I banged each number at 1146, then when they moved the Superbowl number, I hit it again at 1147 to let them know I wasn't ****ing around. *- Only because KU and Memphis played on a Monday night, I think. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted January 17, 2009 Share Posted January 17, 2009 So this is probably the biggest weekend of my sports-gambling life*. I have had a pretty big hard-on for Baltimore all year long -- I believe I mentioned that I was playing them to win the division here (a bet that did not cash) and over 6 wins (a bet that did) -- and it probably was throbbing hardest on the morning of September 19th, when the Ravens were 1-0, coming off their bye week, and getting ready to gear up for the overhyped Cleveland Browns. The bookmakers installed them as 1pt home favorites in that game, which convinced me the books might have been overreacting to Baltimore's weird 2007 season. I decided to bang them pretty hard to win the Superbowl and the AFC. The beat Cleveland, then went on to lose 3 straight. I almost totally gave up on these tickets. Now the question is: do I hedge them out? Or let them ride?Notice that I liked my position so much that I banged each number at 1146, then when they moved the Superbowl number, I hit it again at 1147 to let them know I wasn't ****ing around. *- Only because KU and Memphis played on a Monday night, I think.Yeah, I'd hedge Pittsburgh for the AFC championship bet. But, if the ravens make it through, let that shit ride against the NFC. (Unless they are like 10 point favorites against arizona, then bet that money line). Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 AZ 2 units Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 I have a question. There tend to be a bunch of lines that may or may not be deceiving (I don't know, I'm looking for someone to tell me) because they have money going in mostly on one side of the spread for the favorite, but when you look at the moneyline the underdog is getting a pretty good share of the bets. So if Team A is a favorite at -2, they might have 80% of the money being bet on them, and it looks like that betting against them is smart. But maybe like 65% of the ML bets are going to the underdog. I assume because people that want to bet on the dog are just figuring, "Hey, instead of betting at +2 for a price of -110, I'll just bet the ML and get +110 instead. The increase in payout is easily worth those couple of points."My questions are:(1) Is this reasoning flawed? I'm not a math whiz so I'd like to know if that increase in payout in fact is not worth losing those couple points. (2)Additionally, should I be watching the ML bet tendencies as well when trying to calculate whether betting a spread is smart? If a large portion of people are just betting a ML instead of the spread when their team is a small dog, then wouldn't some of the splits for spreads end up being pretty deceiving, making it look like a much larger percentage of people are jumping on the favorite? Link to post Share on other sites
Poppy_Hillis 11 Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 I just bet all the money I have in the world on Pittsburgh -6 thanks to Wang and this thread. Let's go 7. Link to post Share on other sites
HollywoodAFD 0 Posted January 18, 2009 Share Posted January 18, 2009 Keeping my AZ win money...not playing the 2nd game.... rooting for Balt though Link to post Share on other sites
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