Short Term vs. Long Term

[mcb 0]

You often hear brief mentionings of the importance of playing with the "long term" in mind. Inside straight draws with pot odds of 4 to 1 are for short term gamblers, not poker players, etc.Anyway, I'm interested in hearing what everybody here thinks about how long the short run is. When do you consider a poker player to have entered the long run?I want numbers here, and don't read the other posters answers until you've answered. Nobody (intelligent) will make fun of you and I'm only interested in your honest thoughts.Also, include your level of play, including average stakes played and number of hours played.Thank you in advance for upholding the integrity of this informal survey.[edit]Try not to get lost in a discussion of the importance of long term thinking, pot odds, implied odds, EV, or psychological reasons for purposefully making mathematical mistakes. Despite the fact that these are quite important and interesting subjects to discuss, this specific corner of the forum is not the place to post such discussions.My question restated is simply this: How long does the "short term" last?Give me numbers of hours or hands, as well as your level and area of expertise (ie ring vs. tournament, stakes, amateur vs. pro, etc.)I don't mean to hurt feelings. Rather, I mean to realign the discussion to its original purpose.Thanks again for your responses.[/edit]-mcb

[jonnyz 0]

Statistically I don't know what the answer is. I know that on software you want to run a million plus hands to have a statistically valid number but it would take a lifetime of casino play to play a million hands so here is my answer. When tracking your stats anything under 2000 hours is short term. That would represent about a year of full time play. Again, I know statistically a year is probably not long enough to have a scientific results but if you accurately track your results over 2k hours you will probably have a good idea where you are at.Jon

[diggitron1 0]

(I'm following your rules and not reading another post until after I write this, but I'll be this is similar to a lot of other answers).The long run is over your entire career. Poker is not a series of games, but one long game that stretches throughout your entire poker life. That is literally tens, maybe even hundreds of thousands of hands.When people say taking a 4 to 1 odds on an inside straight draw is "short term play" what they mean is if you made this play every time it came up over your entire career you would lose money. The odds of hitting that inside straight is something like (an estimate) 11 to one against. That means that over your entire career you'll only hit it once out of twelve times the situation arises. When you do hit it, you'll only make 4 bets back to your one. The twelve times you're betting (twelve bets) and you only get four bets back. Which makes it a losing proposition (-8 bets). Now, imagine that this situation comes up a two thousand times over your entire poker career, then chasing that insider with a bad price would lose you 16,000 bets. So anytime you hear "the long run" they're talking about a play that is mathematically a sucker play. You may win the hand, but playing that way throughout your career would be like giving your money away. Having said that, there's a time and a place for everything. Situations call for plays that go against mathematic dictation. Maybe you're sure you're opponent is bluffing, or you actually have the best hand, or maybe you're trying to advertise loose or weak to get calls on your real hands. Whatever. The point is, that's a short term maneuver, and should NEVER be a play you would consider making consistently, unless you're into giving your money away.

[Eclypse 0]

Long Term Vs Short TermHere is a simple explanation:Let’s flip a coin. Heads you win $1, tails I win $2 (I know you probably don’t like this bet, but let’s do it for the sake of this explanation).Here we go: HEADS!You walk away with your dollar and I never see you again.If you are a short-term thinker, you are happy since you are $1 richer. But, in the long term (and in reality) you have lost 50-cents.Now, let’s say that instead of heads it came up tails. You give me $2 and walk away and I never see you again.How much did you lose?The answer is STILL 50-cents.To see why this is true we must evaluate the game by exhausting every possible outcome based on its statistical presence:Two possible outcomes; both equally likely:(H= +1) + (T= -2) = -1 divided by the 2 equally likely events = -.5The game has a negative EV (Expected Value) for you of 50-cents. Professional poker players and “long term thinkers” see this game as having a +/- EV of .5 whereas most amateur poker players and “short term thinkers” see it as simply winning or losing $1 or $2.

[diggitron1 0]

Nice job. You said it quicker and much more simply that I. Who was it who said "Never use a big word where a diminutive one will suffice?" :oops:

[mcb 0]

Jonnyz, thank you for your answer. You are (at the time of my typing this) the only one to have anywhere near answered what I was asking for.When I asked for "numbers" it was not an excuse for people to give an introduction for topics like pot odds and expected value. I am not interested in discussion about the importance of long term vs. short term gambling as I (and most of us here) already have a solid understanding of this concept.My question restated is simply this:How long does the "short term" last?Give me numbers of hours or hands, as well as your level and area of expertise (ie ring vs. tournament, stakes, amateur vs. pro, etc.)I don't mean to hurt feelings. Rather, I mean to realign the discussion to its original purpose.Thanks again for your responses.-mcb

[rivercardbandit 0]

I don't believe there is a "static" answer (ie. 2+2=4) to your question since everyone's perspective is different. First: I'm a total amatuer, been playing a little more than a year off and on about twice a week. For the last month, I've been playing 5 nights a week an average of 4-6 hours per night. I play .50/$1 or $1/$2 limit games, $5 and $10 SNG tourneys, and once a week I play a $20 MTT."How long does the "short-term" last?"From my perspective, I consider the short-term to a period of 3 years if I maintain the amount of time I'm play. At that rate of play, it would be approx 3900 hours.Sorry if that wasn't what you were looking, but I thought I'd take a stab at answering your question.river out.

[mcb 0]

That's exactly what I'm looking for. I'm not looking for a right or wrong answer. I'm looking for what various individual poker players feel is a good estimate.Anyway, thanks for the response. Keep 'em coming, people.-mcb

[ahosang 0]

For me, the short term is that amount of time(or hands) that I can stomach a losing run as being acceptable. I think I can beat a certain level of poker online, so if I suffer a run of bad cards/beats and am in a losing session, then I consider this the short term. Handwise, I would think about 5000 hands. Daywise, I would consider the short term to be anything up to a month. If I am losing after a month, then I have a problem.

[Eclypse 0]

When I asked for "numbers" it was not an excuse for people to give an introduction for topics like pot odds and expected value. I am not interested in discussion about the importance of long term vs. short term gambling as I (and most of us here) already have a solid understanding of this concept.-mcb

The purpose of my post was not to teach you probabilities or expected value, it was to illustrate that “short-term” and “long-term” are nothing more than a state-of-mind. An illusion.In my post above you will see I said “You walk away with your dollar and I never see you again.” I wrote it that way specifically to show that the so-called, “long-run” is actually immediate. 50-cents of real money changed hands—not $2, not $1, and it happened in real time.I realize that most of you understand the mathematics involved in what I’m saying, but it’s the philosophy that’s important. It’s not just understanding the math, but knowing in your heart where the real money goes. It’s like seeing the invisible.I believe this is one of the “major breakthroughs” so many of you are looking for in learning to be professional poker players.So, to answer Mcb’s question, the long run is immediate.Then again, maybe I’m just a nut-case.

[elkang 0]

I don't know if I fully understand the goal of the question.... but:for me the long term starts the moment you play. the long term is the entire time you play - when you're dead, then you're long term is over.short term is a type of thinking. long term is a matter of fact.if I am on the right track I'd be glad to expand on this.

[elkang 0]

ok I just read the thread now... and I see that people are talking about different things here. again, I am a bit unclear about the goal of the question - what do you seek to gain with the answers?

[Eclypse 0]

...I am a bit unclear about the goal of the question - what do you seek to gain with the answers?

Usually, when someone asks this question, it is for one of the following reasons:1. They have been losing money. Since they know they are playing better than their opponents it can’t possibly be because they are making mistakes. Therefore, they want to know how long it will take for the law of averages to catch-up to their expert play and they can finally expect a positive cash flow.or2. They have been winning and want to know how long or how many hands they need to play to give them a pretty good idea that they are, in fact, a winning player as opposed to just running lucky.For those who are #1’s I would direct you to my first post in this thread, for the #2’s, it has been debated ad nausea on other boards, but I think the general consensus is between 20,000-50,000 hands.I don't know if the original poster is a #1 or a #2, but I suspect he's a #2.

[mcb 0]

Eclypse, I apologize for the confusion (my confusion). You are right in that your original post included more than an introduction to EV. It seemed to me at the time that the philosophy you hold was nothing more than over emphasizing the importance of positive EVs. While I don't think I hold this philosophy to the degree that you appear to, I find it very interesting. I'm curious now as to how many other players hold this strong of a philosophical belief in long term. This is the reason why I wanted the thread to remain focused on the question at hand. You've got me sidetracked by some other interesting thing =)To address your type 1 vs type 2 player profile, as of late (the past three months) I have been neither a winning nor a losing player. I feel that my game has been not only just as good as before, but improving, and yet I still have no financial proof of that. I still consider myself a winning player who has just ran into some bad streaks with outdraws, but that's just how it goes with poker.The more I play, the more I realize luck has to do with the game. Sure, in the long run, and by your philosophy, immediately, you make money. Unfortunately, you can't always see that money immediately in your wallet.As to my goal for the thread, I simply wanted to hear what other people have come to know as the possible duration of the short term, a lucky streak, or a bad run of cards.Thank you everybody for the posts. Keep sending your personal opinions for how long the "short term" can be.-mcb